刷牙。啊!刷牙。 Brush your teeth. Ah! Brush your teeth.
啊!啊! Ah! Ah!
莱拉，这是一部关于病毒的电影， Lyra, this is a film about viruses,
所以如果你想上电视 so if you want to get on TV,
问一些关于病毒的问题，然后我再解释。 ask questions about viruses and then I can explain.
随地吐痰。 Spit.
头盔!莱拉,头盔。 Helmet! Lyra, helmet.
头向前倾。 Lean your head forward.
爸爸，你的头发会感染病毒吗？ Daddy, can your hair get a virus?
呃… Er...
嗯… Erm...
我是说，头发上有病毒吗？ I mean, are there viruses of hair?
呃… Er...
Covid大流行最糟糕的日子已经过去。 The worst days of the Covid pandemic are behind us.
简直难以置信， It's almost unbelievable,
即使你挺过来了， even if you lived through it,
一想到这一切都停止了。 to think that all of this stopped.
世界处于封锁状态。 The world was in lockdown.
都是因为一种肉眼看不见的微小病原体。 All because of a tiny pathogen, invisible to the human eye.
我是新冠疫情前线的医生， I was a doctor on the front line of the Covid pandemic,
我是来告诉你的 and I'm here to tell you
这可能只是一个警告。 that it may have just been a warning shot.
我们有45亿人被感染 We've got 4.5 billion people infected,
近1.4亿人死亡。 almost 140 million deaths.
专家认为更糟糕的事情即将到来。 Experts think that something much worse is coming.
他们称之为X病。 They call it Disease X.
X疾病是全球性的灾难性风险。 Disease X is a global catastrophic risk.
这是一种生存威胁。 It's an existential threat.
这种事情让病毒学家夜不能寐。 The sort of thing that keeps virologists up at night.
X病是一种未被发现的病原体 Disease X is an undiscovered pathogen
许多科学家认为这将导致下一次大流行。 that many scientists think will cause the next pandemic.
他们不知道会是什么病， They don't know what disease it will be,
但他们确信它会到来。 but they're certain it's coming.
它就在那里 It's out there
并且每天都试图进入人类群体。 and trying to get into the human population every day.
我要在全球寻找答案 I'm going on a global hunt to find out
它可能是什么，它可能来自哪里。 what it might be and where it might come from.
大约40%的人死亡。 Something like 40% of them die.
40% ? !是。 40%?! Yes.
我想知道它到底构成了多大的威胁…… I want to know how big a threat it really poses...
不要碰任何东西。很好。 Don't touch anything. Fine.
．．以及当它来临时我们如何保护自己。 ..and how we can protect ourselves when it comes.
这正是一种知识 This is exactly the kind of knowledge
这将帮助我们加速 that will help us supercharge
药物和疫苗的发展。 the development of medicines and vaccines.
下一个X病会影响到我们每一个人。 The next Disease X will affect every single one of us.
所以，如果我们能识别威胁， And so, if we can identify the threat,
我们可以挽救数百万人的生命。 we could save millions of lives.
我的探索会让我离你很近 My quest will bring me uncomfortably close
一些世界上最致命的疾病。 to some of the world's deadliest diseases.
孩子哭泣 CHILD WAILS
这是相当压倒性的。 It's quite overwhelming.
呃… Er...
谢谢。 Thanks.
在我学习医学的时候，有一句名言激励了我。 There's a famous quote that inspired me when I was studying medicine.
它是这样的。 It goes like this.
“人类有三大敌人： "Humanity has three great enemies:
“发烧、饥荒和战争。” "fever, famine and war."
其中，迄今为止最伟大的， Of these, by far the greatest,
迄今为止最可怕的， by far the most terrible,
是发烧。 is fever.
请稍等。公车要出发了。 Please hold on. Transit is departing.
下一站：到达、行李提取和转机。 Next stop: arrivals, baggage reclaim and flight connections.
有了现代医学， With modern medicine,
人们很容易忘记传染病的威胁有多严重。 it's easy to forget just how severe a threat infectious disease can be.
所以我来到了日内瓦 So I've come to Geneva
去见一群活生生的科学家 to meet a team of scientists who live and breathe
每天都是这样的现实。 that reality every single day.
在一个非常真实的意义上， And in a very real sense,
他们在保护我们所有人 they're protecting us all
从我们所知道的最可怕的疾病。 from the most terrifying diseases that we know about.
我宣布目前埃博拉病毒病爆发 I am declaring the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease
国际关注的突发公共卫生事件。 a public health emergency of international concern.
这些科学家为世界卫生组织工作， The scientists work for the World Health Organization,
世卫组织是向全世界发出Covid-19警报的全球卫生机构。 the global health body that alerted the world to Covid-19.
Covid-19可以被描述为一场大流行。 Covid-19 can be characterised as a pandemic.
我要去参加他们组织的每日会议 I'm going to a daily meeting they run
跟踪正在发展的突发卫生事件 that tracks health emergencies that are developing
世界各地。 all around the world.
确诊病例144例； And 144 confirmed cases,
其中56人死亡。 including 56 deaths.
Chris van Tulleken博士，欢迎你…很高兴见到你。 Dr Chris van Tulleken, welcome... It's very nice to see you.
．．世界卫生组织哦，非常感谢。 ..to the World Health Organization. Oh, thanks so much.
玛格丽特·哈里斯博士是公共卫生方面的专家。 Dr Margaret Harris is an expert in public health.
我们去急救中心吧。 Let's go to the emergency operations centre.
我是埃丝特·汉布里恩医生。 This is Dr Esther Hamblion.
她是公共卫生情报部门的负责人。 She's the head of the public health intelligence unit.
这是单位。 This is the unit.
非常感谢大家邀请我。 Thank you very much for having me, everyone.
见到你很高兴。 Nice to meet you.
我有点不自在，觉得打扰你们了。 I feel slightly self-conscious I'm interrupting.
所以我要坐……我要去这里吗？请坐这儿。是。 So I'll sit... Am I going here? Please, sit here. Yes.
很高兴你能参加这次会议。 It's great to have you as part of this meeting.
接下来，我们要走了 So, next, we're going to go
给我们的公共卫生情报分析员 to our public health intelligence analyst.
交给你了，布鲁诺。 Over to you, Bruno.
你好,每个人。 Hello, everyone.
4月18日，一个八岁的孩子 On the 18th of April, an eight-year-old
在越南被诊断感染禽流感病毒。 was diagnosed with avian influenza virus in Vietnam.
女孩出现的症状包括发烧 The girl developed symptoms including fever,
头痛和呕吐。 headache and vomiting.
这是他们的每日信号会议，世卫组织分析师 This is their daily signals meeting, where WHO analysts
世界各地疾病暴发报告。 report on disease outbreaks from all around the world.
自2003年以来, Since 2003,
越南报告了129例病例和65例死亡。 Vietnam has reported 129 cases and 65 deaths.
我们将就此提醒各成员国 We will alert member states on this one
因为这是今年的第一个病例。 because it's the first case this year.
下一个信号。我们在美洲有黄热病。 Next signal. We have the yellow fever in the Americas.
144例确诊病例，包括56例死亡。 144 confirmed cases, including 56 deaths.
向成员国发出警报。 Issue the alert to member states.
伊拉克已报告19例出血热病例， Iraq has reported 19 cases of haemorrhagic fever,
包括两人死亡。 including two deaths.
下一个是乌干达的炭疽。 Next, anthrax in Uganda.
这些会议的一个重点是试图确定 A key focus of these meetings is to try to identify
遏制威胁我们所有人的最危险的疾病。 and contain the most dangerous diseases that threaten us all.
在墨西哥发现H5N1病毒 H5N1 in Mexico.
印度有尼帕病毒。我们要求… We have Nipah virus in India. We are requesting...
那你要注意哪些疾病呢？ And what kind of diseases are you on the lookout for?
所以，真正让我们担心的是 So, the things that really worry us
是能引起流行病的病毒 are the viruses that can cause epidemics,
比如埃博拉病毒， such as Ebola,
马尔堡 Marburg,
流感， influenza,
所有的冠状病毒。 all the coronaviruses.
但可能最重要的是，还有X疾病。 But probably most importantly, there's Disease X.
跟我说说X病。 Tell me about Disease X.
X疾病是我们在2018年创造的一个术语 Disease X is a term that we coined in 2018
为了描述一种未知的病原体， to describe an unknown pathogen,
有可能导致严重的全球流行病。 one with the potential to cause a serious global pandemic.
这听起来几乎像科幻小说。 It sounds almost like science fiction.
它不是。Covid是一种X病，但它不是唯一的一种。 It's not. Covid was a Disease X, but it's not the only one.
我们每天都在寻找下一个。 We're everyday looking for the next one.
团队经常面临神秘的问题 The team's often faced with mysterious
疾病爆发可能是一种新的X病 disease outbreaks that could be a new Disease X.
接下来，我们跟着…… Next, we were following...
啊，尚未确诊的疾病。 Ah, the not yet diagnosed disease.
这是乌干达坎帕拉的一组疾病和死亡病例。 So this was a cluster of illness and death in Kampala, Uganda.
咳嗽，感冒，身体虚弱，还会抽搐， Cough, flu, body weakness, but also convulsions,
尤其是在儿童中。 particularly among children.
所有人的埃博拉病毒检测结果均为阴性。 All of them tested negative for Ebola.
我们正在寻找那些不寻常的症状 We are looking for that cluster of unusual symptoms
它们一起呈现。 that are presenting together.
任何病毒，一旦被发现，都可以传播 Any virus, once it's been detected, can spread -
在24、48小时内 within 24, 48 hours -
它可能在地球的另一边。 it can be on the other side of the globe.
结果可能会使Covid-19大流行看起来温和。 What could result would make the Covid-19 pandemic look mild.
最坏的情况有多糟，玛格丽特？ How bad is the worst-case scenario, Margaret?
如果你回顾历史， If you look back in history,
黑死病摧毁了欧洲的人口 the bubonic plague destroyed Europe's population.
我是说，那场瘟疫是一场灾难。 I mean, the plague was a catastrophe.
黑死病夺去了欧洲一半的人口。 The bubonic plague killed up to half of Europe's population.
令人难以置信的是，任何疾病 It seems unbelievable that any disease
在今天可能会造成如此大规模的死亡 could cause death on that scale today.
但是你开始对体积有感觉了 But you start to get a sense of the volume
这种智慧 of this intelligence
这个装置每天都在处理，一周七天。 that that unit is processing every single day, seven days a week.
你只是…… You just...
它让它变得真实。 It makes it real.
世界卫生组织对另一场全球流行病的风险进行了排名 The WHO ranks the risk of another global pandemic
作为全球健康的最大威胁之一。 as one of the top threats to global health.
但它发生的可能性有多大？ But how likely is it to happen?
我想找出一个现代的 I want to find out where a modern-day
黑死病的来源 bubonic plague could come from,
以及我们能做些什么来阻止它。 and what we can do to stop it.
那本书在哪儿？现在，这是…… Where's that book? Now, this is...
这就像大海捞针一样。 This is going to be like looking for a needle in a haystack.
X疾病可能来自任何地方， Disease X could come from anywhere,
它可能是细菌或真菌或… and it could be a bacteria or a fungus or...
．．一个病毒。 ..a virus.
它可能是一个改良的，变异的版本 And it might be a modified, mutated version
我们非常了解的东西， of something that we know about quite well,
也可能是一种全新的病原体 or it could be a completely new pathogen -
一个我们从未想过的。 one that we've never even imagined.
但大多数专家认为X病将是一种病毒， But most experts think that Disease X will be a virus,
地球上最丰富的病原体 the most abundant pathogens on Earth.
这里有一个分类树 We've got a taxonomic tree here
这向你展示了病毒之间的关系 which shows you how viruses are related
让你知道有多少不同的病毒 and gives you a sense of how many different viruses
病毒有不同的类型。 and types of virus there are.
大约有20到25个不同的家庭 And there are around 20, 25 different families
可以感染人类的病毒。 of virus that can infect humans.
然后有数百种不同的病毒。 And these then have hundreds of individual species of virus.
这些原因非常广泛， And these cause very, very wide-ranging,
不同的疾病。 different diseases.
你得了致命的出血热，比如埃博拉病毒， So you've got deadly haemorrhagic fevers like Ebola,
会让你流血致死。 which can make you bleed to death.
比如寨卡病毒 There are viruses like Zika virus,
它是由蚊子传播的 which is transmitted by mosquitoes,
它们会导致出生缺陷。 and they can cause birth defects.
但我将从一组病毒开始 But I'm going to start with a group of viruses
叫做亨尼帕病毒 called the henipaviruses,
一些科学家认为 which some scientists think
会导致非常危险的X病 could cause a really dangerous Disease X.
科学家发现了一种亨尼帕病毒 There's one henipavirus that scientists
都特别担心。 are particularly worried about.
它首次出现在1998年。 It first appeared in 1998.
我要去疫情爆发的地方 I'm going to ground zero of the outbreak
看看他们到底在担心什么。 to find out what they're so concerned about.
Harbir !克里斯，你好吗？ Harbir! Chris, how are you doing?
很高兴见到你。很高兴见到你。你打算怎么去？ Good to see you. Great to see you. How are you going?
哦，谢谢你来见我。一点也不。 Oh, thanks for meeting me. Not at all.
来，我们走吧。这种方式吗?是。 Come, let's go. This way? Yes.
欢迎来到马来西亚。 Welcome to Malaysia.
哈比尔过去住在村子附近 Harbir used to live near the village
病毒第一次被发现的地方 where the virus was first discovered.
我记得所有通往村子的路 I remember all the roads leading to the village
被封锁了 were blocked off
还有拿着机关枪的军队阻止人们 and there were army with machineguns preventing people
从进进出出。 from coming in and out.
非常恶心。 It was pretty nasty.
很多人失去了生命 A lot of people lost their lives
每个人都认识失去亲人的人。 and everybody knew somebody who lost somebody.
真的吗?是的。 Really? Yeah.
大多数病人在两家大医院接受治疗 Most of the patients were treated in two of the large hospitals
在该地区， in the region,
我们来看看其中的一个。 and we're going to go to one of them.
我们要去见谭教授， And we're going to meet Professor Tan,
谁是关键医生之一 who was one of the key doctors
参与了病毒的治疗 involved with the treatment of the virus.
这里是马来亚大学医院。 This is the University of Malaya Hospital.
1999年， And in 1999,
在疫情爆发期间 during the outbreak,
我们照顾了近100名病人。 we looked after close to 100 patients.
真的吗? Really?
他们的症状是什么？ And what were their symptoms like?
他们病得有多严重？ How ill were they?
他们病得很重， They were very ill,
它们通常会在几天内死亡。 and they often die within a couple of days.
是的。 Yeah.
在当时，这很可怕吗？ At the time, was it frightening?
哦,是的。太可怕了。 Oh, yeah. It was horrible.
这种疾病首先出现在心脏 The disease first appeared in the heart
对马来西亚养猪业的影响 of Malaysia's pig-farming industry.
第一次爆发似乎是突如其来的。 The first outbreak seemed to come out of nowhere.
猪尖叫 PIGS SQUEAL
标准测试检测不出未知病毒 Standard tests can't pick up unknown viruses.
所有症状提示为日本脑炎。 All the symptoms suggested Japanese encephalitis.
它通过蚊子传播， It's spread by mosquitoes,
这在该地区很常见。 and it's common in the area.
但这种新疾病更加致命。 But this new disease was much deadlier.
这是病房 This is the wards
我们一开始是在照顾病人。 that we were initially looking after the patients.
大约40%的人死亡。 Something like 40% of them die.
40% ? !是。 40%?! Yes.
有一种有效的疫苗可以预防日本脑炎。 There's an effective vaccine against Japanese encephalitis.
它很快就被分发出去了， It was quickly distributed,
但案件还是源源不断。 but the cases kept coming in.
你怎么知道这是一种新病毒？ How did you figure out it was a new virus?
这次疫情只影响了华人。 This outbreak only affected ethnic Chinese.
所以我们认为这不是… So we thought this is not...
不能用蚊子理论来解释。 Cannot be explained by mosquito theory.
蚊子叮咬每个人， Mosquitoes bite everyone,
但只有一小部分人患病。 but only a small section of the population was getting ill.
在与时间的赛跑中， In a race against time,
一位科学家培育了病毒样本进行研究。 one scientist grew a sample of the virus to investigate.
这是电子显微镜下的照片 And this is the electron microscope picture
病毒的 of the virus.
他们发现了一种致命的新病毒 They'd discovered a deadly new virus,
以发现它的村庄尼帕命名。 named Nipah after the village it was found in.
和令人担忧的是, And alarmingly,
它与最具传染性的疾病之一有关： it's related to one of the most infectious diseases of all:
麻疹。 measles.
尼帕病毒复制迅速， Nipah replicates fast,
攻击大脑，肺，血细胞 attacking the brain, lung, blood cells -
它还制造了诱饵来分散注意力 and it also creates decoys to distract
并摧毁我们的免疫系统。 and overwhelm our immune system.
这是一种特别致命的特征。 This is a trait that makes it particularly lethal.
这是非常危险的病毒 This is really dangerous virus,
它给了我们重量 and it gave us weight
试图用一种更激进的方式来应对它。 to try and cope with it in a more radical way.
为了控制尼帕， To control Nipah,
科学家们必须找到载体， scientists had to find the vector,
经过的被感染的生物体 the infected organism that was passing
把病毒传染给人类 the virus on to humans.
这种病似乎只会造成影响 It seemed the disease was only affecting
那些和猪打交道的人， those working with pigs,
而不是大多数穆斯林人口。 not the majority Muslim population.
所以猪成了头号嫌疑人。 So the pigs became suspect number one.
你要记住这种病毒是全新的 You have to remember that the virus was completely new,
所以人们真的非常非常害怕。 so people were really, really terrified.
然后，当他们发现它会传染给人类 And then, when they discovered that it was transmitted to people
从猪开始，这个区域必须被疏散。 from the pigs, then the area had to be evacuated.
接下来，我想， What followed, I think,
引起了很多争议。 caused a lot of controversy.
大约有100万头猪被宰杀。 About a million pigs had to be culled.
猪的呼噜声 PIGS GRUNT
枪声 GUNSHOTS
猪尖叫 PIGS SQUEAL
很容易理解为什么不能快速识别X疾病 It's easy to see why failing to identify Disease X quickly
可能是灾难性的。 could be disastrous.
我开始想象这里发生了什么 I'm starting to imagine what happened here
发生在世界各地，而且…… happening around the world, and...
．．相比之下，我认为Covid看起来微不足道。 ..by comparison I think Covid would look quite trivial.
幸运的是，这种尼帕病毒变种被证明 Fortunately, this Nipah variant turned out
传染力不如麻疹。 not to be as infectious as measles.
它没有在人与人之间很好地传播 It didn't spread well between people
而且它只影响那些接触过猪的人。 and it only affected those who had contact with pigs.
杀猪结束了疫情。 Killing the pigs ended the outbreak.
但尼帕的故事还没有结束。 But Nipah's story isn't over.
它很快在另一个穆斯林国家重新出现 It soon reappeared in another Muslim country
一千多英里之外 over 1,000 miles away
那里没有养猪业可言。 which had no pig-farming industry to speak of.
仅仅几年后， Just a few years later,
它出现在孟加拉国，现在还在继续。 it popped up in Bangladesh - and it's still going on.
今年已经发生了三起案件 So, this year, there have already been three cases -
还有更多的人被怀疑。 and there are more suspected.
但这里的尼帕病毒已经变异了。 But the Nipah virus here has mutated.
这似乎更加危险。 It appears to be even more dangerous.
赛义德·萨特（Syed Satter）博士负责协调孟加拉国的卫生工作 Dr Syed Satter coordinates Bangladesh's
尼帕病毒监测网络； Nipah surveillance network,
他要带我去看一个疑似病例。 and he's taking me to see a suspected case.
这种改型与马来西亚改型不同。 This variant is different from the Malaysian variant.
它更具传染性。 It's more infectious.
它很容易在人与人之间传播 It can easily transmit human to human
而且更致命。 and is more lethal.
导致近71%的死亡。 Causes almost 71% of death.
这是一个巨大的死亡率。 That's a huge fatality rate.
是的，这是一个巨大的数字。 Yes, it's a huge number.
所以这是一个更可怕的前景 So this is a much more terrifying prospect
比我们在马来西亚看到的病毒强吗 than the virus that we saw in Malaysia?
目前还不清楚是什么导致了这种变异 It's not clear what makes this variant
更具致命性和传染性。 more deadly and infectious.
为了控制住局面， To try to keep it under control,
萨特博士和他的团队经营着一个全国性的 Dr Satter and his team operate a national
跟踪和追踪服务。 track and trace service.
我来到当地的一家医院看看它是如何工作的。 I've come to a local hospital to see how it works.
他们会检测任何出现尼帕病毒症状的人 They test anyone showing Nipah symptoms -
比如这个7岁的男孩，他的其他疾病检测呈阴性。 like this seven-year-old boy, who's tested negative for other diseases.
阿布·佩尔韦兹医生正在照顾他。 Dr Abu Pervez is looking after him.
好的。 OK.
我对你现在所经历的一切感到抱歉。 I'm sorry for what you're going through now.
我有一个和马哈茂德一样大的女儿， I have a daughter who's the same age as Mahmoud,
所以我知道你压力很大。 so I understand this is very stressful for you.
你介意告诉我们发生了什么事吗？ Would you mind telling us the story of what happened?
她说孟加拉语 SHE SPEAKS BENGALI
Pervez博士的翻译是： DR PERVEZ TRANSLATES:
这是相当压倒性的。 It's quite overwhelming.
呃… Er...
我觉得很尴尬，但我也… I feel embarrassed, but I also...
我主要的感觉是我不想让他妈妈担心， My main feeling is I don't want to worry his mum,
他处理这件事的能力似乎比我强多了 who seemed to be dealing with this far better than I was.
我不习惯看到病得那么重的孩子。 I'm not used to seeing children that sick.
当然，他所代表的是令人沮丧的东西。 And of course, what he represents is what's so upsetting.
这是,呃…… It's, er...
这就是世界上很多人的生活方式， This is how a huge number of people in the world live,
而且是人…… and it's people...
．．是谁靠着这么少的钱和资源生活 ..who live with this little money and these few resources
被这些病毒感染的人 that are affected by these viruses,
远远超过像我这样的人。 far more than people like me.
马哈茂德的尼帕病毒检测呈阴性。 Mahmoud tested negative for Nipah.
他们还在调查出了什么问题。 They're still investigating what's wrong.
有一件事让我很困惑。 One thing's puzzling me.
在马来西亚，其中一条线索 In Malaysia, one of the clues
那不是日本脑炎是因为穆斯林没有得过。 that it wasn't Japanese encephalitis was that Muslims didn't get it.
他们不是在养猪。 They weren't farming the pigs.
那么，这种病毒是如何在孟加拉国感染人类的呢？ So how is the virus getting into humans in Bangladesh?
现在我将向你们展示它是如何发生的。 So I will show you now how it's happened.
好了,好了。 OK, great.
正确的。 Right.
这种方式。 This way.
你看，这个地方更暗了。 You see, the place is darker.
哦，很霉味，不是吗？是的。 Oh, it's very musty, isn't it? Yeah.
看他们飞起来了！ Look at them flying now!
看，我们打扰到他们了！ Look, we've disturbed them!
是的。 Yeah.
水库。 The reservoir.
树液就这么从树上渗出来吗？ And the sap just oozes out of the tree?
好吧，所以停止这一切似乎很容易？ OK, so it seems like stopping this would be fairly easy?
因为你会跟所有人说“别喝椰枣汁” Because you'd just say to everyone, "Don't drink the date palm sap."
是。这样行吗？ Yes. Does that work?
虽然这种疾病仍然是一个反复出现的问题 While the disease remains a recurring problem
在孟加拉, in Bangladesh,
这里的疫情和病例数量仍然很低 the number of outbreaks and cases here have remained low -
到目前为止。 so far.
看起来， It seems like,
特别是与孟加拉国的医生交谈， from talking particularly to the doctors in Bangladesh,
目前的尼帕病毒变种并不完全是X病。 this current Nipah variant isn't quite a Disease X.
它能很快地杀死人 It kills people really, really quickly
而且它的传播效率不高。 and it doesn't transmit very efficiently.
但很有可能出现尼帕病毒的变种 But it is very possible to imagine a Nipah variant
这在传输上要好一点， that is a bit better at transmitting,
杀人需要的时间要长一点， that takes a little longer to kill people,
但它仍然非常致命，而且会起飞。 but is still incredibly lethal and will take off.
这就是为什么这里的监控如此重要。 And that's why the surveillance here is so important.
尼帕病毒可能已经在蝙蝠体内存在了数千年， Nipah virus has probably been in bats for thousands of years,
但直到90年代末，它才蔓延到人类身上。 but it only spilled over to humans in the late '90s.
从那以后，它出现在几个亚洲国家。 And since then, it's appeared in several Asian countries.
这是许多蝙蝠传播病毒中的一种 It's one of many bat-borne viruses
在过去的几十年里突然从野外出现。 to suddenly emerge from the wild in the past few decades.
亨德拉病毒与尼帕病毒密切相关， Hendra, which is closely related to Nipah,
于1994年在澳大利亚出现。 appeared in Australia in 1994.
SARS是一种冠状病毒，2002年在中国出现。 SARS, a coronavirus, emerged in China in 2002.
2007年，一种致命的新型埃博拉病毒在乌干达出现。 A deadly new Ebola virus appeared in Uganda in 2007.
为什么现在会爆发这些疫情？ Why are these outbreaks occurring now?
我要打个视频电话 I'm going to video call
研究病毒如何从动物传染给人类的专家。 an expert in how viruses jump from animals to people.
他叫王林发教授。 He's called Professor Linfa Wang.
他在新加坡杜克-新加坡国立大学医学院工作， He's at the Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore,
所以我才给他打视频电话 which is why I'm video calling him.
在媒体上，他被称为蝙蝠侠。 And in the press he's known as the Batman.
嗨。那是玲玲吗？ Hi. Is that Linfa?
是。嗨，克里斯，很高兴见到你。 Yes. Hi, Chris, very nice to meet you.
我在我们的蝙蝠病毒研究中心跟你说话。 I'm talking to you from our bat virus research facility.
你能给我看看什么吗？你能移动一下你的笔记本电脑吗？ Can you show me anything? Can you move your laptop?
好吧，我们试试。 OK, let's try.
所以我们现在要去蝙蝠群所在的地方。 So we are now going where the bat colony is.
哦，我没想到！ Oh, I wasn't expecting that!
巨大的,巨大的。 Huge, huge.
王林发是一位著名的病毒学家 Linfa Wang is an acclaimed virologist
谁的工作是揭示真相的基础 whose work has been fundamental in revealing
蝙蝠是许多新病毒爆发的源头。 that bats are a source of many new virus outbreaks.
告诉我，为什么蝙蝠这么重要？ Tell me, why are bats so important?
为什么我们听说它们与冠状病毒有关， Why do we hear about them connected to coronavirus,
埃博拉病毒，尼帕病毒？ to Ebola, to Nipah?
因为它们可以应对感染 Because they can deal with infections
和我们不一样。 differently from us.
蝙蝠是唯一会飞的哺乳动物 Bats are the only flying mammal,
所以他们必须在飞行中应对压力，对吧？ so they have to deal with stress during flight, right?
你知道，他们的体温会上升到42度 You know, their body temperature goes to 42 degrees
他们的心跳达到1000次。 and their heartbeat goes to 1,000 beats.
所以蝙蝠的系统比我们更好地处理压力。 So the bat's system much better deals with stress than us.
病毒感染是另一种压力， Infection by virus is another kind of stress,
但他们不会生病。 but they don't get sick.
蝙蝠，它们只是和病毒共存。 Bats, they just co-live with viruses.
这就是为什么它们是一个很好的储层。 That's what makes them such a good reservoir.
那么，为什么蝙蝠的病毒开始蔓延到人类身上呢？ So, why are bats' viruses starting to spill over into humans?
很明显是人类活动，对吧？ It's clearly the human activities, right?
100年前，我们人类主要从事农业， You know, 100 years ago, right, we humans mainly do farming,
住在村庄里， live in villages,
但现在人类生活在城市里。 but now a human lives in cities.
城市确实侵占了蝙蝠的生存环境。 The cities really encroached on the environment that bats live.
当然，蝙蝠并不是唯一的储存者。 Of course, you know, bats are not the only reservoir.
你知道，鸟，鱼携带病毒， You know, birds, fishes carries viruses,
他们都有潜力成为 and they all have the potential to become
我们称之为人畜共患—— what we call zoonotic -
从动物跳到人类。 jumping from animal to human.
我们知道可能有多少病毒吗 Do we have a sense of how many viruses there might be
在更大的动物水库？ in the wider animal reservoir?
当然可以。你知道，如果我们限制自己 Of course. You know, if we just limit ourselves
对于哺乳动物病毒， to mammalian virus,
我们会说至少有一百万种不同 we will say at least a million different
哺乳动物病毒。 mammalian viruses out there.
一百万个病毒？！ A million viruses?!
所以我们在那里有一个巨大的水库， So we've got this sort of huge reservoir out there,
一个巨大的数字。 a massive number.
但是X病的特征是什么呢？ But what will the characteristics of a Disease X need to be?
病毒必须能够感染 That virus has to be able to infect
一个以上的哺乳动物宿主。 more than one mammalian host.
其次，我们对它没有群体免疫力。 Secondly, we don't have any herd immunity against it.
最后，它必须是机载的 Lastly, it has to be airborne -
因为接触传播通常不会传播得那么快。 because contact transmission usually cannot spread that fast.
所以，如果你具备所有这些特征， So, if you have all these characteristics,
然后就会有下一次大流行。 then you have the next pandemic.
与王教授交谈帮助我缩小了范围 Speaking to Professor Wang has helped me narrow
我对潜在X疾病的搜索 my search for a potential Disease X.
空气传播的病毒通过传播 Airborne viruses spread by transmitting through
我们吸入的微小水粒子。 microscopic water particles that we breathe in.
Covid-19是一种空气传播的病毒， Covid-19 was an airborne virus,
但还有其他更致命的疾病 but there are other, deadlier diseases
有可能变异成X病的人 in the same family that could mutate into a Disease X.
这是非典。 This is SARS.
如果新冠病毒导致约1%的人死亡， If Covid kills around 1% of people,
SARS导致大约10-15%的感染者死亡。 SARS kills about 10-15% of the people it infects.
这是中东呼吸综合征病毒。 This is MERS virus.
它杀死了大约35%的感染者。 It kills around 35% of the people it infects.
在我看来，比任何冠状病毒更令人担忧的是， More worrying than any coronavirus, in my opinion,
是一个完全独立的病毒家族吗 is a whole separate family of viruses
是什么导致了一些最致命的流行病 which have caused some of the most deadly pandemics
在有记载的人类历史中。 in recorded human history.
我说的是流感病毒。 I'm talking about the influenza viruses.
流感病毒感染许多不同的动物 Influenza viruses infect lots of different animals
和人类一样， as well as humans,
而且它们的历史变化很快 and they have a history of changing fast
并成为致命的空气传播病原体。 and becoming lethal airborne pathogens.
现在就有一个 And there's one at the moment
引起特别关注的是H5N1。 that's causing particular concern: H5N1.
这个病毒。 This virus here.
这已经通过候鸟传播到世界各地， And this has been spread worldwide by migrating birds,
它对人类尤其致命。 and it is particularly lethal in humans.
H5N1通常被称为禽流感。 H5N1 is more commonly called bird flu.
我来到了一个世界领先的研究所 And I've come to a world-leading institute
研究这种疾病是如何在动物和人类之间传播的。 that studies how diseases like this move between animals and humans.
内衣可以留在身上。只是剥掉了外层。 Underwear can stay on. just outer layers off.
你好。我们能走了吗？ Hiya. Can we go?
目前人们担心的H5N1病毒株 The current strain of H5N1 that people are worried about
于20世纪90年代在中国的集约化家禽养殖场首次发现。 was first found in intensive poultry farms in China in the 1990s.
它的致死率约为40%，这是… It has a case fatality rate of about 40%, which is...
是啊，那是非常非常高的死亡率。 Yeah, that's, like, a very, very high rate of death.
托马斯·皮科克博士是这里的资深科学家。 Dr Thomas Peacock is a senior scientist here.
在去吗?谢谢你！ Go in? Thank you.
你好,女孩。笑声 Hello, girls. LAUGHTER
他一直在关注禽流感在世界各地的传播。 He's been following the spread of avian flu around the world.
你在这些鸟身上做什么研究？ What kind of science are you doing on these birds?
我们做疫苗挑战研究 We do vaccine challenge studies,
我们在哪里给鸟注射疫苗 where we vaccinate the birds -
然后我们可能会挑战他们。 and then we might challenge them.
比如流感病毒 For example, with a flu strain
那会让他们有点不舒服。 that would make them a little bit sick.
当一只鸡感染了流感， When a chicken gets infected with flu,
人们认为它是通过口腔感染的。 it's thought it gets infected through the mouth.
基本上，这些鸟在吃和喝 Basically, the birds are eating and drinking
就在最后一只鸟刚刚上厕所的地方。 exactly where the last bird has just gone to the toilet.
好的。可能有一些呼吸道传播， OK. There may be some respiratory transmission,
但这并不是特别有效。 but it's not particularly efficient.
所以我们认为，当人类被感染时， Which is why we think, when humans get infected,
它不能有效地在人与人之间传播 it's not efficiently transmitted between humans -
目前为止。 at the moment.
所以这听起来不像X病？ So this doesn't sound like a Disease X?
我们从以前的流感大流行中知道 We know from previous flu pandemics
空气传播绝对是关键 that airborne transmission is absolutely key
这些病毒成为大流行。 to these viruses becoming a pandemic.
然而，在过去的几年里， However, in the last couple of years,
我们已经开始看到一些疫情 we have started to see some outbreaks
这说明病毒有能力 which suggest that the virus is able
在哺乳动物之间有效地传播 to transmit efficiently between mammals.
所以这可能是病毒成为大流行的垫脚石。 So kind of maybe a stepping stone to the virus becoming a pandemic.
大多数H5N1感染发生在禽类中。 Most H5N1 infections occur in birds.
但在过去的几年里， But in the last few years,
越来越多的哺乳动物被感染。 more mammals are being infected.
这引起了人们对病毒可能发生变异的担忧 It's raised fears that the virus could mutate
变成对我们更具传染性的东西。 into something much more infectious to us.
让我试着用我女儿的玩具动物来解释这个。 Let me try and explain this using my daughter's toy animals.
流感病毒很特殊 Influenza viruses are special
因为它们变异得很快，它们会改变。 because they mutate very fast, they change.
但他们也有能力， But they also have the ability,
由于它们的基因结构， because of their genetic structure,
如此显著的变化。手指快速 to change significantly like that. FINGER SNAP
让我们想象有一种病毒在野生鸟类中传播。 Let's imagine there's a virus spreading amongst wild birds.
现在，禽流感以一种完全不同的方式在鸟类之间传播 Now, bird flus spread between birds in a completely different way
人类流感的传播方式 to the way that human flus spread.
它们不会通过空气传播。 They don't spread through the air.
所以，如果病毒在野鸟体内，你就不太可能 So, if a virus is in a wild bird, you're very unlikely
为了得到病毒 to get that virus -
你不会花时间和野鸟在一起， you don't spend any time with wild birds,
你和他们并不亲密。 you're not intimate with them.
鸟类和人类非常不同。 And birds are very different to human beings.
所以病毒在鸟类中传播得很好 So viruses that spread well in birds
会发现它很难在人群中传播。 will find it very hard to spread in human populations.
但是让我们想象一种鸟类病毒 But let's imagine a bird virus
能够进入哺乳动物种群。 is able to get into the mammal population.
也许是被捕食者吃掉的。 Perhaps by a predator eating the bird.
如果这种病毒成功进入哺乳动物体内， If that virus manages to get into mammals,
每一个新的哺乳动物和每一个新的哺乳动物物种 every new mammal and every new mammal species
然后被病毒感染 that the virus then infects
是一个让它学习如何传播的机会吗 is an opportunity for it to learn how to spread
以不同的方式。 in different ways.
它可能通过空气传播， It may become airborne,
这可能会使它更容易进入人类 and that may make it easier for it to get into humans
让它在人类之间传播。 and for it to spread between humans.
我要去美国的加利福尼亚， I'm going to California in the US,
H5N1在哪里出现令人担忧的发展迹象 where H5N1 is showing worrying signs of developing
变成X病病原体 into a Disease X pathogen.
在全国各地的许多哺乳动物身上都发现了它， It's been found in lots of mammals across the country,
从海豹到臭鼬。 from seals to skunks.
但最令人担忧的是感染 But the infections that are causing the most concern
都存在于离我们更近的动物身上。 are in the animals that we have much closer to home.
嘿，大男孩。你在哪里，伙计？ Hey, Big Boy. Where are you at, buddy?
是啊，看看你！ Yeah, look at you!
这是大男孩。 This is Big Boy.
他得了流感，过得很艰难，但他挺过来了。 He had a rough time with the flu, but he made it.
我很高兴他这么做了。 And I'm happy he did.
Joseph Journell曾经养过四只猫。 At one time, Joseph Journell had four cats.
我首先注意到有些不对劲 I first noticed something was wrong
这时亚历山大走过来，痛苦地把头靠在我的腿上。 when Alexander came and put his head on my lap in distress.
他心脏骤停，然后就去世了。 He went into cardiac arrest, and then he passed away.
亚历山大去世后， After Alexander passed away,
我意识到他们都得了一种共同的疾病。 I realised that they'd all had a common illness.
还有塔西，我的燕尾服猫——它一直在呕吐。 And Tuxsie, my tuxedo cat - he had been throwing up.
他在颤抖，抽搐。 And he was, like, shaking and convulsing.
他最后在去医院的路上去世了。 He ended up passing away on the way to the hospital.
这真的很令人震惊。 It's really shocking.
这是大男孩住院时的照片。 Here's one of Big Boy when he was in the hospital.
他不太高兴。 He wasn't too happy.
他看不见 He was not able to see
他的后腿也不能动了。 and he wasn't able to move his back legs.
他们最终得到了一个积极的结果 They eventually got a positive result
康奈尔大学的研究人员说这是禽流感 from Cornell University that it was avian flu.
这是幸存的大男孩和小凯蒂。 Here's Big Boy and Little Kitty, the survivors.
所以我认为猫感染了禽流感 So I think the cats got the avian flu
从我喂它们的生牛奶中分离出来 from the raw milk that I'd been feeding them.
几个月后，我们对那些牛奶盒进行了测试， We had those milk cartons tested quite a few months later,
其中一个箱子的检测结果是阳性的。 and one of the cartons did come back positive.
在过去三年里，有100多只猫感染了H5N1病毒。 Over 100 cats have caught H5N1 in the last three years.
是啊! Yeah!
值得庆幸的是，它们似乎没有把病毒传给人类。 Thankfully, they don't seem to be passing it to humans.
但是在牛奶中发现禽流感 But the presence of bird flu in cow's milk
非常令人担忧。 is very worrying.
这可能是H5N1感染我们的另一途径吗？ Could this be another route for H5N1 to infect us?
好了。 There we go.
早上五点。 Five in the morning.
我不得不打开窗户。 Had to open the window.
弗雷斯诺城外黎明破晓。 Dawn breaking just outside of Fresno.
我们在去农场的路上 And we're on our way to the farm
他们的牛已经爆发了禽流感。 that has had an outbreak of avian flu in their cows.
已发现H5N1的牛变种 A bovine variant of H5N1 has been found
在美国1000多个奶牛群中 in over 1,000 dairy herds in the US,
通过受感染的牛奶在奶牛之间传播 passing from cow to cow through infected milk
在挤奶机里。 in milking machines.
马克吗?早上好。 Mark? Good morning.
早上好，早上好。 Good morning, good morning.
很高兴认识你。欢迎来到加州。 Very good to meet you. Welcome to California.
马克·迈克菲（Mark McAfee）是Raw Farms的首席执行官。 Mark McAfee is the CEO of Raw Farms.
大家早上好。 Good morning, everyone.
这是我们800头牛中的200头。 This is 200 of our 800 cows here.
我们有四个牧群。 We have four herds.
跟我说说禽流感。 Tell me about bird flu.
它于2024年3月在德克萨斯州开始， Well, it started in Texas in March of 2024,
我们六个月前拿到的。 and we got it six months ago.
所有生病的人都死了吗？ Did all the ill ones die?
不，这里没有死亡没有死亡! No, there was no deaths here. No deaths!
大约有10%的牛出现了症状， We had about 10% of the herd that became symptomatic,
但90%的猪群仍然没有症状。 but 90% of the herd persisted to be non-symptomatic.
人们会从牛身上感染流感吗？ Are people getting influenza from cattle?
仅限农场工人； Farm workers only,
去年全国约有65-70起。 and about 65-70 of them nationally over the last year.
有农场工人死亡吗？没有。 Have any farm workers died? None.
这违背了一切 That goes against everything
我想我们可以预测禽流感？ I think we might predict about avian flu?
因为由鸟类传播的禽流感 Because avian influenza, transmitted from birds,
是我们最害怕的事情之一。 is one of the things that we're terrified about.
因为它有惊人的死亡率。 Because it has an appalling mortality rate.
它在跳跃，是的。50-60%的感染者死亡。 It's making a jump, yeah. 50-60% of people who get it die.
这种牛变种还没有引起严重的疾病 This bovine variant hasn't caused severe disease
感染了这种病毒的牛或养牛工人或兽医。 in cows or cattle workers or vets who've caught it.
科学家们也不确定原因。 And scientists aren't certain why.
但更广泛的公众对此表示担忧 But there are concerns about the wider public
通过受感染的牛奶接触到病毒。 being exposed to the virus through infected milk.
在美国销售的大多数牛奶都是加热的， Most milk sold in the US is heated,
巴氏杀菌，杀死里面的病原体。 pasteurised to kill the pathogens in it.
但是生牛奶在这里是作为一种超级食品出售的。 But raw milk is sold as a superfood here.
据认为，每天有超过一百万的美国人喝咖啡， Over a million Americans are thought to drink it every day,
而马克专门生产原料奶。 and Mark specialises in raw milk production.
牛奶呢？ What about the milk?
你在牛奶里发现病毒了吗？ Did you find the virus in the milk?
是的，结果我们被隔离了。 Yes, and we were quarantined as a result.
有人喝了你的含有病毒的牛奶吗？ So did anyone drink your milk that had the virus in it?
最好的计算 The best calculation done
那是我们的460万份生牛奶吗 was that 4.6 million servings of our raw milk
里面有微量病毒 had trace amounts of virus in it,
没有一个人抱怨生病了。 and there was not one complaint of illness at all.
这可能和我想象的不一样， This is a different scenario maybe than I was expecting,
否则我就会预测。 or I would have predicted.
没有更大更深的问题 There's been no bigger, deeper problem
牛和人感染H5N1病毒 from H5N1 in cattle and people.
你和马克一起度过了一个上午 You spend the morning with Mark
而且你对禽流感的担忧也少了很多 and you feel a lot less anxious about bird flu
作为X病 as a Disease X,
至少通过奶牛。 at least through cows.
奶牛几乎没有生病。 The cows barely got ill.
没有农场工人死亡 No farm worker has died
甚至严重不适 or even become seriously unwell
从一头牛身上感染禽流感。 from catching avian influenza from a cow.
疫情爆发后 In the wake of the outbreak,
马克的牛奶定期接受禽流感检测， Mark's milk has been regularly tested for avian flu,
但并不是每个生奶农场都是如此 but that's not the case for every raw milk farm -
这让我很担心。 and that worries me.
所以我想找个能帮我理解的人 So I want to speak to someone who can help me understand
更多关于禽流感的来源 a bit more about where bird flu's coming from,
它是如何在动物种群中传播的， how it's moving through animal populations,
真正的风险是什么？ and what the real risk is.
我要见约翰霍普金斯大学的流行病学家。 I'm meeting an epidemiologist from Johns Hopkins University.
克里斯!嗨！ Chris! Hi!
梅根·戴维斯博士。 Dr Meghan Davis.
很高兴见到你！是的,的确! Nice to see you! Yes, indeed!
这不是我对加州的期望！ This is not what I expect from California!
比如，河，天…… Like, the river, the gee...
加拿大鹅在这里做什么？ What are the Canadian geese doing here?
它们正在传播H5N1病毒。 Well, they're spreading H5N1.
我不知道你现在是不是在开玩笑。其实我不是。 I don't know if you're joking now. I'm actually not.
他们可能还好， They're probably OK,
但这是鸟类的数量 but this is the population of birds
这往往会将病毒从一个地区带到另一个地区。 that tend to bring the virus from one area to another.
这就是我们认为它是如何被引入乳制品的。 This is how we think it might have been introduced into dairy.
我在闲聊 I was making small talk,
但我们已经开始了。正确的。 but we've got right into this. Right.
你对生牛奶的风险有什么看法 What's your perspective of the risk that raw milk
和H5N1一起对人类造成的危害？ and H5N1 together pose to humans?
所以，生牛奶基本上是一个传播媒介。 So, raw milk is basically a distribution vector.
真的吗?所以，乳制品工人，他们一直在工作 Really? So, dairy workers, they've been working
乳房，对吧？ with the udder, right?
在那些客厅里，它和脸一样高。 It's at face height in those parlours.
所以溅起的牛奶 And so splashes of milk -
或者把牛奶涂在手上，然后揉眼睛 or maybe milk on the hands, and you rub your eyes -
会导致我们见过最多的东西， can lead to what we've seen the most,
也就是结膜炎。 which is conjunctivitis.
他们的病情较轻。 Their disease has been more mild.
喝生牛奶的人 With people who drink raw milk,
我会说我们缺乏监控。 I would say we lack surveillance.
因为轻症不一定 Because mild cases are not necessarily
有人来接我， going to get picked up,
但是潜在疾病的范围是很广的 but the spectrum of potential disease can range
在禽流感的情况下是致命的。 all the way to lethal in the case of avian influenza.
我们应该对此有多担心呢？ How worried should we be about this?
我们知道它有可能成为一场大流行， We know it has the potential to be a pandemic,
如果它有某些关键特征。 should it pick up certain key characteristics.
被感染的宿主越多 The more hosts that get infected,
这种适应性极强的病毒就有更多的机会 the more opportunities for this very, very adaptable virus
想办法变得更致命。 to find ways to get more lethal.
如果我们找不到这个病毒 If we don't have eyes on this virus,
那么它可能会迅速传播 then it could spread quite quickly
它可以逃离美国的边界 and it could escape the boundaries of the United States
成为一个全球性的挑战。 and become a global challenge.
很明显，这次疫情远未结束。 It's clear that this outbreak is far from over.
要阻止病毒是很难的 It's going to be hard to stop a virus
这是由候鸟携带的， that's carried by migratory birds,
现在在无数工厂化养殖的动物身上发生了变异 that's now mutating in countless factory-farmed animals
在世界各地。 across the world.
H5N1离成为下一个X病还有多远？ How close is H5N1 to becoming the next Disease X?
显然，你必须完全脱光衣服， Obviously you do have to get completely undressed,
然后你光着身子去洗澡， and then you walk to the shower naked,
打开门，把它当作入口 open the door and use it as an entrance
到里面的禁区去。 to go across to the restricted area inside.
我和汤姆·皮科克博士一起回到了皮尔布赖特研究所。 I'm back at the Pirbright Institute with Dr Tom Peacock.
他要带我去他们高度安全的实验室 He's taking me into their high security labs
在那里他们研究最危险的H5N1变种。 where they study the most dangerous H5N1 variants.
这是所有H5N1活病毒工作完成的地方 So this is where all the H5N1 live virus work is done
目前在研究所。 at the institute currently.
即使在这个安全区域内 Even inside this secure area,
科学家们执行他们的程序 scientists carry out their procedures
在收容帐篷里。 inside containment tents.
你对禽流感做了什么实验？ What kind of experiments are you doing with avian influenza?
我们试着去理解， We're trying to understand,
随着病毒从鸟类传染给牛， as the virus jumped from birds into cattle,
病毒是如何进化的 how the virus has been evolving -
以及这是否会使病毒更加危险 and whether that makes the virus more dangerous
因为感染了人。 for infecting people.
当流感病毒进化时 And when flu viruses evolve,
它们的工作方式和其他病毒一样吗？ do they do that in the same way as other viruses?
流感还有另一招 Flu has another trick up its sleeve
这是很多其他病毒所没有的。 that not so many other viruses have.
如果两种流感病毒感染同一个细胞， If two flu viruses infect the same cell,
它们可以将染色体在彼此之间洗牌 they can shuffle chromosomes between one another
一种病毒可能生来就拥有父母双方的基因。 and a virus can be born which has genes from both parents.
以前的流行病就是这样出现的。 And that's how previous pandemics have arisen.
这是一个真正的问题 And it's a real concern
当我们想到一个带着流感去上班的奶牛场工人 when we think about a dairy worker who's gone to work with flu
然后也会感染H5N1病毒 and then gets H5N1 as well.
所以，如果一个人得了人类流感 So, if a human had human influenza
然后不幸得禽流感 and then were unlucky enough to get avian influenza
从野生动物或农场动物身上， from a wild animal or from a farm animal,
人类可以成为混合容器吗？ the human could then be the mixing vessel?
完全正确。病毒会有很好的机会 Exactly. The virus would have a really good opportunity
开始重组基因 to start shuffling genes
然后得到病毒 and get a virus
这可能会更有效地感染人类。 that can maybe infect humans more efficiently.
我们对病毒的作用了解得多吗 Do we know much about what the virus has to do
不再是鸟类的问题 to move from being a problem for birds
成为地球上每个人的大问题？ to being a massive problem for everyone on Earth?
所以我们需要病毒能够复制 So, we would need the virus to be able to replicate
在人的鼻子里要好得多。 much better in the human nose.
令人担忧的是我们发现了牛病毒 The worrying thing is we're finding the cattle viruses
在人类鼻腔培养物中生长得更好 grow a lot better in these human nasal cultures
比如，禽流感病毒。 than, for example, avian viruses.
也就是说这种病毒 Which suggests that this virus,
随着它在牛身上的进化 as it's evolved in cattle,
离有效感染人类又近了一步。 is one step closer to being able to infect humans efficiently.
汤姆，你对此有多担心？ How worried about this are you, Tom?
我想一些最坏的情况 I think some of the worst-case scenarios
这就是H5N1大流行的样子 that are out there for what an H5N1 pandemic looked like
都是让病毒学家夜不能寐的事情。 are the sort of thing that keeps virologists up at night.
H5N1并不是唯一潜在的X病病原体 H5N1 isn't the only potential Disease X pathogen
潜伏在我们的工厂化农场里。 lurking in our factory farms.
还有其他动物流感 There are other animal influenzas
这可能会变异成危险的东西。 that could mutate into something dangerous.
但H5N1病毒似乎最接近这种情况。 But H5N1 appears to be closest to doing it.
非常感谢。不管怎样，很高兴见到你。 Thanks so much. Great to see you, anyway.
我很快就会见到你。 I'll see you soon.
最让我难忘的事 The thing that really sticks with me
这就是这里的安全级别吗 is that, you know, the security level here
是世界上最棒的。 is out of this world.
绝对安全。 It's absolutely secure.
但病毒却在这里 And yet the virus is out here.
如果有人在沙滩上捡到一只死鸟， If someone picks up a dead bird on a beach,
可能是禽流感。 it could be avian influenza.
H5N1型病毒 H5N1
现在比以往任何时候都更接近大流行的可能性。 is now closer to pandemic potential than it's ever been before.
有很多方法可以解决这个问题。 And there are lots of ways that this can play out.
很多场景。 Loads of scenarios.
但最坏的情况是， But the worst-case scenario,
这是很有可能的， which is very possible,
是可怕的。 is terrifying.
H5N1大流行的最佳情况 The best-case scenario for an H5N1 pandemic
它会变异成一种无害的疾病。 is that it mutates into a harmless disease.
最坏的情况是它变异成某种东西 The worst-case is for it to mutate into something
极具致命性和传染性。 highly lethal and very contagious.
我想看看如果发生这种事会造成多大的破坏。 I want to see how devastating it could be if that happened.
嗨,亚历克西斯。你好吗？很高兴见到你。 Hi, Alexis. How are you doing? Nice to see you.
嗨，很高兴见到你。嗨,克利斯朵夫。 Hi, nice to see you. Hi, Christophe.
这个房间太棒了。 This is an amazing room.
克里斯托弗·弗雷泽教授 Professor Christophe Fraser
来自牛津大学流行病科学研究所 from Oxford University's Pandemic Science Institute
运行复杂的数学模型 runs complex mathematical models
帮助政府为流行病做准备。 to help governments prepare for pandemics.
亚历克西斯·帕顿博士是阿斯顿大学的主任 Dr Alexis Paton is the director of Aston University's
健康和社会中心。 Centre for Health and Society.
今天，我们为你准备了三种场景 Today, we've prepared for you three scenarios
严重程度不同，反应也不同。 of varying severity and with varying responses.
他们从丹佛开始， And they start in Denver,
它是当前H5疫情的中心之一。 which is one of the epicentres of the current H5 outbreaks.
我们要看的第一种情况 So the first scenario that we're going to look at
是致死率极高的病毒变种吗 is an extremely high fatality mutant of the virus
大约有50%的人死于感染。 where there's about 50% who die as a result of infection.
对我来说，这是最可怕的场景之一。 This is, to me, one of the most terrifying scenarios.
这些点的强度取决于感染人数的多少。 The dots grow in intensity depending on how many people are infected.
你可以看到病例在上升。 You can see the cases going up there.
为什么这个点没有扩散？ Why is the dot not spreading?
丹佛周围的空气中疫情得到了控制。 The epidemic is staying contained in the air around Denver.
由于尸体和重病患者的数量， Because of the number of dead bodies and seriously ill people,
政府对此的反应会快得多 the government would respond to this much more quickly
而不是轻微的感染。 than if it was a mild infection.
大约有2500例，其中一半已经死亡。 2,500 cases, ish, and half of them have died.
这不是我想要的。 This is not what I was expecting.
人们的反应取决于他们对风险的理解。 People react depending on how they interpret risk.
50%的死亡率很可怕 A 50% mortality is scary,
所以他们更有可能遵守 and so they are much more likely to comply
公共卫生措施。 with the public health measures.
致命性是通过以下机制阻止传播： The lethality is what stops spread, through this mechanism of:
人们遵守规定， people comply with regulations,
他们愿意进行隔离人们很害怕。 they're willing to do quarantine. People are scared.
对我来说，这是一个相当令人惊讶的发现。 That, for me, was quite a surprising finding.
下一个场景是什么？嗯嗯。 What's the next scenario? Mm-hm.
这一次，病毒将会 This time, the virus is going to have
3%的感染致死率。 a 3% infection fatality rate.
我们要模拟的是全球反应 What we're going to model is a global response
这看起来很像人们对Covid的反应。 that looks a lot like how people responded to Covid.
作为一个基准来考虑 So just as a benchmark to think about -
就Covid而言，我们认为2020年约有300万人死亡。 for Covid, we think around three million people died during 2020.
好吧，我们开始看到死亡。 OK, so we're starting to see deaths.
好吧，但是现在……现在你可以看到圆点出现在整个欧洲。 OK, but now... Now you can see dots appearing across Europe.
所以，三个月大的时候…… So, at three months...
哦,哇。是啊，所以现在真的很火。 Oh, wow. Yeah, so now it's really taking off.
所以疫情比新冠病毒传播得更快。 So the epidemic is quicker than Covid.
流感是一种传播速度更快的病毒。 Flu is a virus which is much faster to spread.
所以，在第一年结束时， So, at the end of the first year,
我们有45亿人被感染 we've got 4.5 billion people infected
我们有近1.4亿人死亡。是的。 and we've got almost 140 million deaths. Yeah.
这里的场景属于这个范畴 This scenario here falls in the realm
我们称之为邪恶的问题 of what we term wicked problems -
有些人认为感染致死率很低 an infection fatality rate which some people would consider low
在个人层面上， at an individual level,
但它们正在产生广泛的社会影响。 but which are having a widespread societal impact.
我们这样想。 So let's think about it this way.
如果你和我要去外面野餐…嗯嗯。 If you and I were going to go have a picnic outside... Mm-hm.
．．我告诉过你有3%的可能性会下雨 ..and I told you there was a 3% chance of rain,
你能带把伞吗？ would you bring an umbrella?
不，可能不会。 No, probably not.
如果我告诉你有50%的可能性下雨？ If I told you it was a 50% chance of rain?
百分百-我会带把伞。 100% - I'd bring an umbrella, yeah.
这就是我们之间的差异。好的。 And this is the differences that we have. OK.
我们发现，人们并不一定会这么做 What we find is that people don't necessarily
把自己看作是被感染的候选人。 see themselves as candidates for getting infected.
他们会想，“哦，好吧，3%，那不是我。” They think, "Oh, well, 3% - it's not me."
结果，我们发现人们更倾向于 And as a result, we see that people are more inclined
为了相互交流， to interact with each other,
他们做了更多的事情来允许扩散 they do more things that allow for the spread -
因为这是一种呼吸道疾病。 because it's a respiratory illness.
但同时，政府也以同样的方式做出反应。 But also, governments react in the same way.
他们会想，“呃，3%?” They think, "Uh, 3%?"
第三种情况是什么？ What's the third scenario?
第三种情况是获得灵感 The third scenario is taking inspiration
因为一些国家控制了感染 from the fact that some countries controlled the infection
第一年- for the first year -
直到有了疫苗 until vaccines were available -
然后他们能够很快地为所有人接种疫苗。 and then they were able to vaccinate the entire population quite quickly.
这就是3%死亡率的病毒？是的。 This is the 3% mortality virus? Yeah.
但随着全球做出最佳反应， But with the whole globe responding optimally,
使用最好的可用资源和技术？ using the best available resources and technology?
你可以看到病例在上升。 OK, so you can see cases going up.
目前死亡人数为3000万。 Deaths are now at 30 million.
所以非常非常非常低。 So way, way, way lower.
比如，减少1.2亿人的死亡。 Like, 120 million fewer deaths.
这仍然是一个非常严重的事件。 It would still be a very severe event.
但在减少死亡方面， But in terms of reducing deaths,
它向我们展示了积极的影响 it shows us the positive impact
以科学为基础的反应。 that science-based responses can have.
我们可以在100天内制造出疫苗。 We can create vaccines in 100 days.
我们现在有这样的能力和技术。 We have that ability and technology now.
这才是真正能产生积极影响的事情 And that's something that can really positively impact
人们的行为, people's behaviour,
因为他们知道这不是永远的。 because they know it's not forever.
弗雷泽教授的设想表明，我们可以做很多事情 Professor Fraser's scenario suggests that we can do a lot
为了减轻大流行的影响， to lessen a pandemic's impact,
但他的模型是基于特定的假设 but his models are based on specific assumptions
这可能不会在真正的大流行中发挥作用。 that may not play out in an actual pandemic.
例如，他的最佳设想依赖于科学家生产 For example, his best-case scenario relies on scientists producing
100天内研制出全球疫苗 a global vaccine in 100 days.
这在技术上对H5N1是可行的 Now, this is technically possible with H5N1
因为我们对流感了解很多。 as we know a lot about influenza.
那么X病毒呢 But what about Disease X viruses
我们以前从未遇到过的？ that we've never encountered before?
来自英国和乌干达的科学家正在研究解决方案。 Scientists from Britain and Uganda are working on a solution.
他们正在乌干达寻找新的病毒， They're hunting for new viruses in Uganda,
另一个人类活动的地方 another place where human activities
正在侵入生物多样性病毒的热点地区。 are encroaching on biodiverse virus hot spots.
我在格拉斯哥。我要上大学了。 I'm in Glasgow. I'm going to the university.
我要去病毒研究中心。 I'm going to the Centre for Virus Research.
这里有一个团队在做一个项目 And there's a team here doing a project
关于新兴病原体。 on emerging pathogens.
坐下来?是的。 Sit down? Yeah.
艾玛·汤姆森教授和希林·阿什拉夫博士 Professor Emma Thomson and Dr Shirin Ashraf
从格拉斯哥, from Glasgow,
以及乌干达病毒研究所的斯特拉·阿提姆博士， and Dr Stella Atim from Uganda Virus Research Institute,
这个项目有三位资深科学家。 are three senior scientists on the project.
他们使用了一些非凡的技术 They're using some extraordinary tech
称为基因组序列 called genomic sequences
去发现我们曾经隐藏的病毒。 to find viruses that were once hidden to us.
这是一个测序器吗？这是一个测序器。 Is this a sequencer? This is a sequencer.
当它们刚被开发出来的时候， When they were first developed,
它们是巨大的机器，可以占据 they were these massive machines that would take up
整个房间。是。 an entire room. Yes.
然后它们变成了我的尺寸，或者稍微小一点。 And then they came to be my size or a bit smaller.
然后还有可以插入笔记本电脑的测序器， And then there are sequencers that you can plug into a laptop,
装入一些样本， load some samples into it,
它会给我基因序列。 and it will give me the genetic sequence.
就像哈勃望远镜。 It's like the Hubble Telescope.
我们可以看到 We can actually see
以我们从未见过的方式。 in a way that we've never seen before.
我们可以看到我们不知道的病毒。 We can see viruses that we didn't know about.
这是非凡的。 That's extraordinary.
斯特拉，你在收集什么样的样本 Stella, what kind of samples are you collecting
寻找病毒？ to look for viruses?
具体来说，我们进入高点， Specifically, we go into the high spot,
高危地区。 high-risk areas.
不仅对家畜进行取样， Not only sampling the domestic animals,
但我们也研究其他小型哺乳动物 but we also look at other small mammals -
主要是蝙蝠，老鼠。 mainly bats, rats.
你发现新的病毒了吗？ Have you discovered new viruses?
我们有。几个。是。 We have. Several. Yes.
一些病毒。我们有几个。 Several viruses. We have several.
你这么随意的事。“是的，不，有一些。 Something you're so casual about. "Yeah, no, a few.
“是的，一些新病毒。” "Yeah, a few new viruses."
我是说，这是件大事 I mean, it's a huge deal
如果我们想想这有多难做到 if we think of how hard that was to do
甚至可能是10年、20年前。这是非凡的。 maybe even 10, 20 years ago. It's extraordinary.
我们可以在几小时内完成。 And we can do it within a matter of hours.
我们是否知道它们中的任何一个 And do we have any sense of whether any of them
能感染人类吗？ can infect humans?
我们知道至少有一种可以感染人类。 We know that at least one can infect humans.
还需要进一步的研究 And there's further studies needed
知道它有多重要。 to know how significant it might be.
真是难以置信，真的。 It's incredible, really.
这是团队用来识别的数据 This is the kind of data that the team are using to identify
全新的，未被发现的病毒。 brand-new, undiscovered viruses.
这是遗传密码。 This is genetic code.
它只是四个字母的顺序。 It's just four letters in sequence.
他们也有使用这类数据的方法 They've also got a way of using this kind of data
这可能会带来革命性的变化 that may revolutionise
我们开发治疗感染的方法。 the way that we develop treatments for infections.
其实太简单了。 Too easy, actually.
乔·格罗夫博士正在进行一个开创性的项目 Dr Joe Grove is running a ground-breaking project
这给了病毒学家新的见解 that's giving virologists here new insights
了解这些病毒的工作原理。 into how these viruses work.
我们收到了来自乌干达的序列 So we receive the sequences from Uganda -
是寄给我的。 they're sent to me.
我可以把它们放入最先进的人工智能中 And I can put them into a state-of-the-art AI
这会带来全新的视角 that can bring a completely new perspective
这些病毒。 on these viruses.
这是一个蛋白质 So this is one protein
从其中一种病毒 from one of the viruses
斯特拉，希琳和艾玛发现的 that Stella and Shirin and Emma have discovered.
自从你和他们谈过之后， And in the time since you've had a conversation with them,
我预测了一个蛋白质结构 I have predicted a protein structure
对于细小病毒 for that parvovirus
这可以告诉我们更多关于它是如何工作的。 that can tell us more about how it works.
什么，一小时后，还是…？ What, in an hour, or...?
大约花了五分钟。 It took about five minutes.
那么，以前做这个要花多少时间？ So, how much time would doing this have taken before?
所以，你可能要苦干好几年。 So, you could be plugging away for years.
但利用新型人工智能， But using novel artificial intelligence,
我们可以准确地预测这些结构 we can accurately predict these structures
在短短几分钟内。 in a matter of mere minutes.
不可思议。 Amazing.
我们可以对蛋白质有不同的看法。 We can take different views of the protein.
通过研究这个， And by studying this,
我们可以更多地了解蛋白质是如何工作的， we can learn more about how the protein works,
它如何让病毒感染细胞。 how it allows the virus to infect the cell.
你能判断这是否是一种潜在的X病吗？ Can you tell if this is a potential Disease X?
不，但这正是我们需要的知识 No, but this is exactly the kind of knowledge that we need to have
如果它演变成X病 should it emerge as a Disease X.
我们可以加速干预措施的发展 We can supercharge the development of interventions
比如药品和疫苗。 such as medicines and vaccines.
天啊，我太喜欢了。 God, I love that.
所以，在今天结束的时候，我觉得还有乐观的余地。 So, at the end of today, I feel like there's room for optimism.
他们在这里所做的科学研究确保我们都更安全一点。 The science they're doing here makes sure we're all a little bit safer.
基因测序已经鉴定出数百种 Genetic sequencing has already identified hundreds
在过去的几年里世界范围内的新病毒。 of new viruses worldwide in the last few years.
2025年，科学家们发现 In 2025, scientists discovered
两种与尼帕病毒相关的病毒 two Nipah-related viruses in China
一种是北美的Camp Hill病毒 and one called the Camp Hill virus in North America.
这项技术甚至正在改变我们的能力 The technology is even transforming our ability
在英国检测病毒 to detect viruses here in the UK.
告诉我你的症状 Tell me what your symptoms were.
我发了高烧。 I developed a high temperature.
我所有的关节都肿了。 All my joints were swollen.
三天后，我起了皮疹。 Three days later, I developed a rash.
这里是热带疾病医院 This is the Hospital for Tropical Diseases,
我工作的地方。 where I work.
所以我们现在用基因组学测试病人的血液 So we're now testing the blood of patients with genomics
看看我们能否诊断出新的疾病。 to see if we can diagnose new illnesses.
我们正在进行一项试点研究，看看效果如何 We're running a pilot study to see how effectively
它可以检测进入这个国家的疾病。 it can detect diseases coming into this country.
把猫吗? KNOCKING Cat?
Cat Houlihan博士负责这项试验。 Dr Cat Houlihan is in charge of the trial.
历史上这有多困难 How difficult has it been historically
来检测X病一种全新的病原体？ to detect a Disease X - a brand-new pathogen?
非常难，非常慢。 Incredibly difficult and incredibly slow.
个月。几个月的工作。 Months. Months of work.
到那时，它正在蔓延。正确的。 And by that time, it's spreading. Right.
它可能会导致疾病和死亡 And it's causing potentially disease and death
我们都不知道我们在对付什么。 without us knowing what we're dealing with.
现在我们可以在几天内完成。 Now we can do it in days.
我们正在研究新的诊断测试 We're working on new diagnostic tests
哪些是可以检测到的 which are able to detect
基因序列 the genetic sequence
任何细菌，病毒，真菌 of any bacteria, virus, fungus -
这就是所谓的序列。 and what's called sequence it.
这样我们就能确定下一次大爆发的零号病人。 And we can identify patient zero for the next big outbreak.
通过探测它们，我们可以做些什么。 And by detecting them, we can do something about it.
这在X疾病中有多重要？ How important is this in the context of Disease X?
哦，我觉得这改变了游戏规则。 Oh, I think it's game-changing.
我认为这是我们发现下一个… I think this is the way that we will detect the next...
可能是下一次大流行。 Potentially the next pandemic.
不可思议。 Amazing.
这感觉像是一个积极的结尾。 This feels like a positive note to end on.
一项有助于控制X疾病爆发的技术 A technology that will help contain a Disease X outbreak
在它站稳脚跟之前。 before it takes hold.
当我第一次了解X病时， When I first learned about Disease X,
这是一个抽象的概念。 it was this abstract concept.
现在我真切地感受到这是一个多么大的威胁。 Now I really feel viscerally what a threat it is.
它可能在任何地方。 It could be anywhere.
我们知道它就在某处。 We know it is out there somewhere.
它可能在野外。 It might be in the wild.
可能在工厂化农场里进化。 Might be evolving in a factory farm.
没有人知道它什么时候会袭击或者会是什么。 No-one knows when it will strike or what it will be.
我现在认为这很可能是一种新的H5N1病毒， I now think it's most likely to be a new strain of H5N1,
但这只是猜测。 but that's only a guess.
可能是一种我们之前没有想到的病毒。 It could be a virus that we haven't thought of previously.
这就是为什么我们称它为X病。 That's why we call it Disease X.
也是我所学到的最可怕的事 And the scariest thing that I've learned
这是我们的行为吗，人类的行为 is that it's our behaviour - human behaviour -
这是邀请它进入我们的生活。 that's inviting it into our lives.
我们对自然世界的破坏， Our destruction of the natural world,
我们的集约化农业实践， our intensive agricultural practices,
我们的政治。 our politics.
特朗普总统决定从美国撤军 President Trump's decision to withdraw America
世界卫生组织的一项研究引起了恐慌。 from the World Health Organization has caused alarm.
我们显然关心的是电流 We're obviously concerned about the current
全球政治形势 global political situation
以及对国际卫生资金的影响。 and the impact that has in terms of international health funding.
但作为一个整体，我们将继续发挥我们的作用。 But as a group here, we continue to do our role.
我们的角色是为世界提供早期预警系统， Our role is to provide that early warning system for the world,
所以我们继续这样做。 and so we continue to do that.
现在，在美国， Right now, in the United States,
公共卫生正在瓦解。 public health is being dismantled.
所以，如果事情变得更糟，我们也没有监视它。 So, if something were to get worse, we don't have the eyes on it.
这太可悲了 It's just so sad -
因为我们面对的是共同的敌人。 because we're fighting a common enemy.
病毒,对吧? Virus, right?
我们应该齐心协力。 We should be all working together.
但这并没有发生。 But it's not happening.
但还是有希望的。 But there is some hope.
如果我们开始处理这些问题， If we start to deal with these issues,
我们可以大大减少这种威胁。 we can significantly reduce the threat.
我们正处在一个不可思议的科学和医学时代。 And we're in an incredible age of science and medicine.
我们现在可以在几个月内生产疫苗。 We can produce vaccines now in months.
我们也可以在几天内识别新的病原体， We can also identify new pathogens in days,
在创纪录的时间内设计新药， design new medicines in record time,
我们已经学会了控制疫情爆发的最佳方法。 and we've learned the best way to contain outbreaks.
所以我们在战斗中拥有这些非凡的武器 So we've got these extraordinary weapons in the fight
对抗我们最老的敌人。 against what is really our oldest enemy.
问题是：我们会足够聪明地使用它们吗？ The question is: will we be smart enough to use them?
当涉及到突发公共卫生事件时， When it comes to public health emergencies,
错误信息可以迅速传播。 misinformation can spread fast.
开放大学有一个新的互动工具 And the Open University has a new interactive tool
这表明你可以如何帮助阻止传播。 that shows how you can help stop the spread.
要找到它，扫描二维码或进入屏幕上的网站 To find it, scan the QR code or go to the website on the screen
并点击链接进入开放大学。 and follow the links to the Open University.