早上好 good morning
欢迎来到干涉式私人通道 and welcome to the intervene private access
培训室鲍勃·韦斯曼 training room bob weissman
如果你能做一个 if you could just do a quick
举起你的手让我知道你听到了我 raising of your hand to let me know that you hear me
响亮和清晰 loud and clear
希望大家周末愉快 hope everybody had a great weekend and
看了一场超级碗 watched a great super bowl
直到最后一分钟都很激动人心 very exciting right down to the last minute
看起来不错 that looks good
也让我们欢迎 and also let's welcome
马克benervini mark benervini
让我们跟马克来个快速试音 let's do a quick sound check with mark
早上好,马克 good morning mark
你好，你能听到我说话吗 hello can you hear me
鲍勃，你能听到我说话吗 bob can you hear me
是的，我们会放手的 I do we'll hand it off
马克·里奇可能会来也可能不会来 mark richie may or may not be joining us
他实际上是 he actually was
有一个小 having a little
今天早上的问题 issue this morning
我们就从你开始吧，马克 so we'll just get started with you mark
把它拿走 take it away
好吧好 okay well
我们当然会关注市场 we're looking at the markets of course
这里有一点压力 and there are a little bit of pressure here
纳兹达克和道的混合 mixed between nazdak and dao
这个旋转是什么 which of course this is that rotation and
来回动作 back and forth action
在循环类型名称和可能的增长名称之间 between cyclical type names and maybe growth names
但这并没有真正改变什么 but this hasn't really changed anything
我们从俄罗斯得到了一些消息 we got some news out of Russia
我们 we're
谈论外交仍然是一个选择，所以 talking about diplomacy is still an option so that
对入侵或战争的可能性有帮助 helps the prospects for invasion or war
因此，石油股正面临压力 so oil stocks are under pressure here
我们有很多的收入 we've got a lot of earningsthat are coming out
在石油的名字在酒店的名字 in the oil names in the hotel names
如果你住的是万豪酒店 if you're in something like a Marriott
当然其中一些名字 and some of these names of course that
我们有他的空缺职位 we have his open positions
当然，进入收益总是 so going into earnings of course is always a
总是在冒险吗 is always taking a chance
类似拱煤的东西 something like an arch coal
我们在这上面 we're up on that
我们获得了一些利润 and we've taken some profits
所以你当然有缓冲 so you certainly have a cushion there
但是再一次 but again
这份认真的报告可能会让这一切烟消云散 that could be evaporated with the in earnest report
这可不太好接受 that's not taken so well
让我们来回答一些问题 so let's get to some questions and like
鲍勃说，我认为马克·里奇是直率的 bob said I think mark ritchie is outright
他不在这里 he's not in here
不，看起来他现在是想和你交流 no that looks like he's trying to connect right now
好吧，也许马克要来了 actually okay maybe mark's coming in
马克让他以为是偏头痛之类的 mark had him think a migraine headache or something
他觉得不舒服 he wasn't feeling well
让我们看看他会不会进来 so let's see if he comes in
如果他说了，我们会听到的 we'll hear him if he does
但是让我们从高地开始，看看我们有什么问题 but let's start upland see what we have for questions
好吧，马克，你在开玩笑吧 all right mark are you here kidding
大家早上 morning everybody
抱歉，我后来说对了 sorry I'm later right
好的，谢谢你能来 all right thanks for coming in
即使你感觉不太好，马克 even though you're not feeling well mark
约翰的第一个问题 the first question from john actually
是为了纪念里奇吗 is to mark ritchie
当你第一次开始交易并专注于 when you first started trading and focused on
得到2h，然后翻转边缘 just getting 2h and flipping your edge
你的平均收益是多少 what was your average gain
这是你建立账户的策略吗 and was this a strategy for you to build your account
并消除运动部件 and eliminate the moving parts
你必须做出的决定 decisions you had to make
确保事情简单 keep things simple sure
我不会说 I wouldn't say
最后一部分是关于 that last part in terms of you know
保持简单是的 keeping things simple yes
但你还有很多东西要学 but there's still plenty of things you have to learn
你们知道，识别 and you know identifying
你知道这些点 you know these proper by points you know
找出不同的质量 figuring out different quality
你知道有一件事 you know there's one thing
这一点我已经说过很多次了 I've made this point many times
你做得越多，你就 the more you do it you just
你觉得你得到了更多 you feel like you get a little more
自信前行 confident as you go
但 but
这绝对是一个可行的策略 it was absolutely a viable strategy in terms of
只是把边缘翻过来 just turning the edge over
听着，我听马克做过很多次海藻 listen I've heard mark making algae many times
如果是抛硬币的话 if it's a coin flip
你知道你做到了 and you know you have
你想要抛硬币的一面 an edge you just want to flip that coin
尽可能多的练习 as many times as possible
翻转边缘 turning the edge over
最主要的原因 the main reason
我不再问问题 I stopped questions I stopped
我开始投资一些股票，期待更大的变动 I started playing some stocks for bigger moves was
这些股票中很多都有更大的波动 a lot of these stocks went on to have bigger moves
在某些时候 and at certain times
试着玩会更有意义 it makes more sense to try and play
一些更大的举动的名字 some names for a bigger move
随着我的账户越来越多 and as my account grew
你知道它变得有点 you know it became a little
对一些小名字的挑战 challenging in some of the smaller names
把边沿翻过来也很容易 to turn the edge over quite as easy
我不太想在你知道的基础上再加一句 I don't really like to just add to that that you know
再次选择 again picking
比如你开始把自己锁起来 like when you start locking yourself
变成一个固定的数字 into a fixed number
你当然可以放弃很多好处 you certainly can give up a loton the upside
还有一件事 also the other thing
我们已经谈过了 we've talked about this
我想我们上周已经讨论过了 I think we talked about it last week
当你说你知道一个r或两个r when you say you know an r or two r
如果你要承担2%的风险 if you're taking a 2% risk
然后你获得4%的收益 and then you take a 4% gain
还有一只有可能上涨20%的股票 and a stock that has the potential to go up 20%
你在桌上留下了一大笔钱 you're leaving a tremendous amount on the table
而你所做的就是毁了那个伟大的 and what you're doing is you're destroying that great
你想创造什么 what you're trying to create
你想创造的一切 the whole thing you're trying to create
是不对称的杠杆 is asymmetric leverage
所以你想要光 so you want to get the light
风险最小 the smallest amount of risk
最大的奖励 and the largest reward
这就形成了最大的边缘 and that creates the largest edge
所以r也要考虑进去 and so the r has to also be taken into account
据你所知 as far as you know
你冒的是哪种风险 what type of risk are you taken
如果你在那里进行日内交易 if you go in there with a day trade
冒十美分的风险 to take a ten cent risk okay
你打算把涨了20美元的股票卖掉吗 are you going to sell the stock of it goes up twenty
二十美分 twenty cents
或者你承担2%的风险，如果涨了就卖掉 or you take a two percent risk and sell if it goes up
当它脱离碱基的时候是4% four percent when it's breaking out of a base
可以很容易地上升10 and could very easily go up ten
在波动交易中超过百分之十五 to over fifteen percent on a swing trade
所以这些东西必须被拿走 so those things have to be taken
知道考虑 know into account
我觉得就是被困住了 and I think just getting locked into it
一个比一个比是短视的思维 a ratio an r ratio is myopic thinking
大卫的问 david's asking
他很擅长减少损失 he's pretty good at cutting losses
有时候可能太紧了，但是 probably too tightly sometimes but
在逐渐接触病毒时有问题吗 have been having trouble with progressive exposure
马克·里奇说精益 mark ritchie says lean
他倾向于不计入账面收益 he leans against unbook gains
如果有新的职位空缺，我也是 me too if the newer position's opened open
如果新的职位开始对你不利 if the newer positions open start to turn against you
你什么时候意识到未入账收益 when do you realize the unbook gains
以免把自己埋在坑里 to avoid digging yourself into a hole
让我说一件事 let me just say one thing
我当然会让马克来回答 and certainly I'll let mark answer it
说你知道他 to saying as you know he
就像他说的那样 it's kind of coming from what he said
所以我只想说 so I just want to say that
但问题是我们得到 but the question is that we're getting
我看到 I see
随着时间的推移，我们每周都会收到一些问题 as time goes on and the questions that we get each week
我只想说，你们中的很多人真的 I just want to say that a lot of you are really
来难以置信 coming along incredibly
就你的发展而言 well as far as your development
因为如果我们回到几年前 because if we went back years ago
当然10年8年 certainly 10 years eight years
这些问题非常非常 the questions were very very
初学者，非常非常业余 beginner very very amateurish
我们还有一些业余问题 and we still have amateurist questions
如果你刚开始，你会问 if you're just starting this you're gonna ask
非常基本的问题，什么都没有 very basic questions and there's nothing
你知道 you know
没有理由不让你问这些问题 no reason why you shouldn't ask those questions
或者应该是一种耻辱 or should be a shame
的基本问题 of basic questions
但我也看到了 but I also see that
有很多人 there's a lot of people
跟我们在一起很长时间了吗 have been with us for a long time now
问题越来越多 and the questions are just getting
越来越好，越来越好 better and better and better
我说的是更好更复杂 and I say better more sophisticated
并表明你真的得到了这个 and showing that you're really getting this
所以我很高兴看到这些问题 so I'm really happy to see these questions
但就目前而言 but as far as
随着逐渐暴露 with progressive exposure I
我也会倾向于书本游戏 I will lean towards on book games too
现在这又是 now this is again
马库斯可能是我们能找到的 the marcus is probably something we could
真正进入 really go into
你知道，这有点 you know it's sort of you know
这又是一个非黑即白的区域 again one of those areas that's not black and white
我也想听听你的看法 and I'd love to hear your take on it too
你知道如果有 you know if there's
如果我有很多关于书籍的游戏 if I have a good handful of on book games and
我看到了股票设置 I'm seeing stock setting up
也许我在市场上有一份文件 maybe I have a file through day in the market
有一堆股票在准备 and there's a bunch of stock setting up
我还收获了不少 and I've got a good handful of gains
这是我要依靠的东西 that's something where I'm going to lean on those
未预定的收益 unbooked gains
比现在的情况严重得多 more heavily than if a situation like now
现在我们在两个方面都有所收获 so now we've got some on both gains but
你知道这并不是什么伟大的进步 you know it's really not that great progress
他们刚刚在销售上失败了 the falter they've just failed with distribution
几乎没有任何股票设置 and there's hardly any stock setting up
所以我不会在两方面都依靠这些 so I'm not gonna lean on those on both gains
我不知道，马克就是这样 I don't know mark is that
这是我认为的最好方式吗 is that the best way to say I think
实际上是的 yeah actually
我觉得你解释得比我好 I think you just explained it better than I could have
而言, in terms of
你显然知道我们在环境中会说什么 you know obviously what we say in the environment
但这是一个很好的例子 but this is a really good example of when
是啊，你不会想的 yeah you wouldn't want to
因为只有 because there's just
你知道有时候你会得到这个 you know sometimes you yeah you get this
你取几个名字它们就开始起作用了 you grab a couple of names they start to work
但是还有一个更大的波浪 but then there's a bigger wave
你知道设置 you know of setups
这感觉就像你知道，你吃一个，它，它是有效的 this feels like you know you take one it's it works
你拿一个，它没有 you take one it doesn't
你拿一个，也许你知道什么意思 you take one it might you know any mean
还有就 and there's just
至少从来没有这样的一波约会 there's never been that wave of setups at least
在这个纠正期内 during this corrective period
不，不，你知道的 no no and and again you know it does
这与市场指数无关 it has nothing to do with the market indexes
就像如果这里的刻度盘转得更高 like if the dial right here turns around rip higher
俄罗斯传来了好消息 and there was some great news out of Russia
不管 and whatever
通货膨胀比预期的好 you know inflation came in better than expected
市场再次突破新的高点 and the market rips the new high ground again
你知道我不会的 I would you know I wouldn't be
依靠我未登记的收益还是 leaning on my unbooked gains or
或者更有攻击性 or being more aggressive
仅仅因为 simply because
在市场中移动的指数 in the markets moving in the index
因为我还是会回去看那些股票 as I'd still go back look at those stocks
看看它是什么样的 see what it looks like
至于在胆汁清单上的设置 as far as the setups are concerned on the biler list
这将 and that would
如果我每天都有文件的话 definitely if I got a file through day
那会让我看得更近 that would make me look even closer
并且做好购买的准备 and be more ready to buy
但我还是会默认为股票设置 but I'm still gonna default to the stock setups
如果我们看不到 and if we don't see
股票重新设置，你不能买商品 stock setting up again you can't buy merchandise
如果商店还开着，你就进去 you go in the store if the store is open
你走进商店 you go in the store
货架上没有商品 and there's no merchandise on the shelves
你不能买任何东西 you can't purchase anything
所以你们得一直拖欠货物 so you guys got to keep defaulting to the merchandise
但这是将收益入账 but that unbook to book gains
问得好 a very good question
就像我说的，如果你只有几只股票 and again like I said if you only have a few stocks
你可能想要等待 that you're trading you might want to wait
所以你有一些关于一些书籍游戏 and so you have a few on a few book games
它会继续前进 it will move on
在阿尼 here with arnie
你认为使用1:图表有帮助吗 do you think it's helpful to use the 1: charts
史密斯对市场 on market smith
一天交易 for day trading
改进入口点和 refining entry points and
理解, understanding that
提供需求 supplying demand
跨越多个短期时间框架的动态 dynamics across multiple short term timeframes
日间交易有两种 well there's two types of day trading
首先是为了 first of all is for
目前有很多类型的日内交易 oh as far as there's lots of types of day trading
但就我所描述的 but as far as how I would characterize
使用图表进行日内交易 day trading for using charts
如果你是严格的日内交易，你知道 if you're strictly day trading you know
和 and
你想要日内交易 you want a day trade
盘中走势基于技术面 intraday moves based on technicals
你当然可以使用这些设置和我 you certainly can use the setups and the things that I
教你 teach you
在日线图和盘中线图上，它们确实有效 on daily charts on intraday charts they do work
效果很好 they work quite well
它实际上是在特定的情况下 it's actually under certain circumstances
但是又什么 but again what
当我做短期交易甚至单日交易时 when I even make a short term trade or even a day trade
我还在按日线图交易 I'm still trading from the daily chart
你会发现 again you see because
当我是唯一真正的 when I the only thing I'm really
任何时候都要进行评估 trying to assess at all times is
我从股票中获得的风险回报 the risk reward that I'm getting from stocks
如果奖励是 and if the reward is
相对来说比较大 you know relatively big
那你就知道这很棒 then you know it's great
我试图得到不对称杠杆 I'm trying to get that that asymmetric leverage
如果它不在那里 if it's not there
那我要做的就是 then what I'm trying to do is
通过减少损失来增加优势 still create an edge by tightening my loss
为了弥补那点小小的好处 to make up for that smaller upside
去年就是一个很好的例子 this last year is a perfect example where
我要进去剥一些头皮 I'm going in there and I'm scalping some
部分交易头寸正在爆发 partial positions on trades that are breaking out
因为我穿了大号的 because I've got this big size on
但我在越狱后就开始交易了 but I'm trading them from the break out
然后根据日线图进行交易 and trading them from the daily chart
所以 so
我可以告诉你 I could just tell you this
从日内交易的角度来看 from a day trading standpoint
我不是即日交易者 and I'm not quote unquote a day trader
当然不会使用英寸日线图 certainly not one that uses inch day charts
但我发现如果你还记得鲍勃的话 but I've found that if you remember bob based
无论你做什么，都要说 always say whatever you do
保持1分钟 keep the 1min off
你的办公桌1分钟只是两个活跃的 your desk the 1min is just two active
我不会少于5分钟的 I wouldn't go any less than a 5min
你知道一分钟太长了 you know um the 1min is just too much
我只是觉得这里太吵了，而且 I just find there's so much noise and it it's um
除非你是个不折不扣的黄牛 unless you're you know really really a scalper
剥皮便士 scalping pennies
我不建议你这么做，因为 and I just wouldn't advise to do that because
我不认为那是钱的所在 I don't think that's where the money is
那是那是某种 that's that's sort of
你知道那种短期的倒卖小钱 you know that real short term little scalping pennies
这就像嗯 that's like um
是的这是 yeah that's
你想挣一份薪水，也许你知道 you want to make a paycheck maybe you know and there's
有些人就是这样做的 there's guys that do that and make a
挣点生活费 earn a little living
但我不认为那是赚钱的地方 but I don't think that's where the money is yeah
迈克尔zaskin马克 michael zaskin mark
他今天早上以71英镑买了cf he bought cf this morning at 71
在第八节气的低处停下 with the stop below the low of the eighth
所以你才会那么做，不过好吧 that's all why you would ever do that but okay
是的 yeah
我买了 I bought
一个小位置，认为这是一个很好的开始 a small position and considered this a good entry
训练接近危险区的领袖 training close to the danger zone on a leader
我显然被拦在外面了 I was obviously stopped out
你如何评价这个词条 how would you evaluate the entry
首先 well first of all
Cf的收益即将出来 cf has earnings coming out
明天收盘后，我相信泵是对的 tomorrow after the close I believe right pump yeah
你现在直接进入收益 so you're going right into earnings now if you
所以我可以接受在盈利前交易 it's so I'm okay with trading ahead of earnings
即使是在 even in the day of
如果你想获得利润，然后进入 if you want to try to get at a profit and then go into
但我的意思是这只股票 into the earnings but I mean this stock is
今天下大 down big today
我把它放在警报上 I put it on by alert
很简单，因为如果它成立 simply because if it held
当它拉回这里时，它可以收紧 and it could tighten up as it was pulling back here
你知道这是你可以看到的地方 you know this is where you get to sort of see
橡胶和路面接触的地方，能不能粘住 where the rubber meets the road and if it held
当我们有一天 on a day when we have
所有的能源股石油股今天都下跌了 all the energy stocks the oil stocks are all down today
整个地区都受到了重创 this whole area is getting hit across the board
所以我不知道你为什么要进去 so I'm not sure why you would go in
在这一天，一切都 on a day where everything
正在打 is getting hit
而不是等待 as opposed to waiting for
看看它会不会收紧然后断裂 to see if it tightens up and then breaks
向基地的新高地进发 out into new high ground into this base
或者拉回来 or a pull back by
或者通过收入等等 or get through the earnings and so forth
我唯一认为 the only thing I think that
我理解你的所作所为，我也理解 I understand what you did and I understand
我觉得你做的好事是 and I think the good thing that you did was
如果你想买根钢管回来 and if you're gonna buy a pole back
你会买下跌的股票 and you're going to buy something that's down
你做得对 you did it the right way
在危险点附近买 you buy it near the danger point
所以现在它下降到那个点，那是你的终点 so now it comes down to that point and that's your stop
如果你非常接近这个点 and if you're really close to that point
你知道你可能是在玩 you know you're playing it for maybe
今天重新振作，并有一个好的结尾 to rally back today and have a good close
我是说这是你的计划 you know so I meant that was your plan
没事，没事 it's fine it's fine
我自己是不会买这支股票的 I wouldn't have bought this stock here myself
你知道，但是，但这当然是一种方法 you know so but but that's certainly one way to play it
当股票下跌时，我就会撤回 I pull back you know when the stock is down
你想怎么玩就怎么玩 that's how you want to play it
犹太人最重要的事情 the main thing jew
你会在那个时候买入下跌的股票吗 is that when you're going to buy stocks that are down
我想做什么 what I want to do
很多人的做法却恰恰相反 and again a lot of people do the exact opposite
但 but
我要做的是我要带着 what I want to do is I want to go in there with the
绝对titus阻止我可能 absolute titus stop I can possibly
处理并给高汤留出一点空间 handle and give the stock a little bit of room
试着计时 and try to time it
就在它开始回升的时候 right when it starts to turn back up and
因为 and because
当你买股票时，走势对你不利会发生什么 what happens when you buy stocks and moving against you
你很少能做对 you very rarely get it right
他们几乎总是和你作对 they almost always move against you more
即使不是马上 even if it's not right away
当它开始出现时，你可能会买下来 you might buy it as it starts turning up
然后在下面的切口下掉头 then it turns back down under cuts below
你会更经常被拦在外面 and you're going to get stopped out more often
你一般来说 you're generally speaking
你会经常被堵在路上的 you're gonna get stopped up more often
所以我想解释一下 so I want to account for that
所以我想给自己更多的尝试 so I want to give myself more tries
有时候我可能喜欢回调 I might like when I play a pullback sometimes
你知道它开始出现 you know it starts turning up
我进去了，它下来了，我出局了 I go in boom it comes down takes out the low I'm out
我经常在市场和指数中这样做 I do this with the market a lot with the indexes
即使在短时间内 even on a short
它开始 it starts turning
再次出现我可能会再试一次 turning up again I might try it again turns down again
再次被拦下 get stopped out again
有时我会在一天内尝试2、3、4次 sometimes I'll try it 2 3 4 times in one day
看看我能不能做对并搞定它 to see if I can get it right and nail it
如果我不这样做，我就会被打晕 and if I don't and I get knocked out
两个三次 two three times
我的站很小 my stop is small
通常是不相等的 and it usually doesn't even equal
或者只等于一个句号 or only equal one full stop
就好像我给了它全部的量 as if I gave it the full amount
我的意思是 so that's I mean that's
这是我可以给你的颜色 that's the color I can give you on that
约翰，你在问为什么 john you're asking why
马克不喜欢一些船运股 mark didn't like some of the shipping stocks
他们上周开始越狱的时候 when they started breaking out last week
我不确定你是否能提供 I'm not sure if you could provide
这些名字的一些股票代码 some ticker symbols of those names
但我看到了很多船名 but a lot of the shipping names I'm seeing
是在downtrent吗 are actually in downtrent
输入一些股票代码 so to type in a few ticker symbols
我为什么喜欢或者不喜欢它们 why did I like them or not like them
不喜欢他们 not like them
不像我想的那样 not like that well I thought
我想我说过了 I thought I said that
唯一做得好的组 the only groups that were doing well
是海运、石油和煤炭吗 were shipping and oil and coal
所以我不知道这怎么能说明我不喜欢他们 so I'm not sure how that can say I didn't like them
但我是说就目前而言 but I mean as far as like
像zim something like a zim
我相信他不是侵犯者 which I believe was not violer at one point
你知道的，这只股票是111上的圣经 you know this this stock right here was bible on 1 11
你可能会被拦在这里 you probably would have gotten stopped out here
然后它就会以一种艰难的方式回来 and then it just come ripping back in a hardway
跨界所以很难找到这些名字 crossover so it was hard to get on some of these names
那就是如果没有 and that was the thing if there's no
是可行的枢轴点还是太不稳定了 viable pivot point or maybe it's too volatile
你知道我会避开它们的 you know I'll avoid them
尽管我可能喜欢这个团体这个团体的表演 even though I might like the group the group's acting
我是说完美的例子 well I mean perfect example
或者像富国银行这样的银行 or the banks you know something like wells fargo
我想是富国银行 I think wells fargo
这是团队的领导者 this is the leader in the group pretty much
或者至少是其中一个 or at least one of them and
但是你看这里 but you see here
它出现在这个骗子供应的缺口上 it came on a gap to this cheat into supply
它直接上升，现在有点不稳定 it ran straight up now it's kind of volatile
我的意思是 I mean
我把它放在胆汁上它在这里卡住了一点 I put it on biler where it was wedging up a bit here
从那以后，你知道你又要搬到新的高地了 and since then you know move with new high ground again
也许你可以在后面的柱子上买到 maybe on this pole back you can buy it
但我是说，这是全部 but I mean it's all
是啊，只是有很多噱头 yeah just a lot of autility here
真的很难接受 it's really hard to get on board
这是从基地出来的 this coming out of the base
所以我可能得放手了 so I might have to just let it go
尽管我认为银行可能 even though I think the banks are probably you know
现在利率上升的相对位置 the relative place to be right now with rates going up
我以为你是说 I think I thought you meant the
用油轮装运 shipping as in the tankers
比如股票 that like uh well the stocks
对吗，我不知道 is that right I don't know
我认为 I thought that
我不记得我说过任何关于运输的坏话 I don't remember saying anything bad about any shipping
自己的股票 stocks myself
我是说也许我有，但我没有 I mean maybe I did but I don't
我不确定好不好 I'm not sure good
流量florian问假设你买了bg flow florians asking assuming you bought bg
迪克还是bg什么的 dick or some about bg
两个九 on two nine
因为它在盈利后爆发 as it breaks out after earnings
你认为价格走势如何 how would you rate the price action
就违规而言 coming in terms of violations
我不知道，好了 I don't know okay there comes
所以 so
首先是29，这是对的 first let's say two nine which is right
在这里 here
所以在这个大转折的日子里 so on this reversal in this big squat day here
假设我买了我是什么 so assuming I bought that what am I
你认为价格走势如何 how would you rate the price action
在违规方面 in terms of violations
双班三床关闭 double squad three bed closes
首先我要给 well first of all I would rate
我认为它一开始就不是个好选择 I would rate it as not a great buy to begin with
它很不稳定，比传说中要高 it's volatile it's legend higher
到处都是 it's it's just all over the place
所以我一开始就不会买这个 so I wouldn't have bought this in the first place
所以我想我应该给这个评分 so I think I think I would grade this has
有问题的或不好的购买 a questionable or bad buy
让我们从这里开始 so let's just start there
好了，现在你参与了 now once okay now you're in the buy
好吧，我现在怎么评价它 okay how would I rate it now
好吧，看看我是否 well see if I made
再说一遍，如果我要像这样做一笔糟糕的交易，或者 again if I'm gonna make a bad buy like this or if
如果我做了这个，我会认为这是一次糟糕的购买 I would refer to as a bad buy if I made this
我可能会预料到这种波动，因为 I would probably expect this type of volatility because
它是如此的凹凸不平 it's so blop sided
墓地也不多 and there's not much cemetery
它就在右边 it just runs right up the right side here
然后你会得到一个锋利的杆子 and then you get a sharp pole back
v型复苏 a v shaped recovery
所以我称之为亲属墓地 so what I call relative cemetery
相对墓园的法律是这样的 the law of relative cemetery is that you have
付出的代价 a price to pay
所以现在它进入了高地 so now it goes into high ground
你可能会有一些波动 you're probably gonna get you know some volatility
我认为，到目前为止，波动在一定程度上得到了控制 I think the volatility so far is somewhat contained
你知道，我看着它，你知道 you know I look at it you know see
我是这么做的 here's what I do
有时候我买了东西，我知道 and there's times where I make a buy and I know
你知道这不是最划算的买卖 you know this is not the greatest buy
但我要在这里试试 but I'm gonna try it here
我来试一试 I'm gonna try something here
我试着做一些可能有点 and I take a shot at something that's maybe a little
有问题，但我知道我会打分 questionable but I know I grade it
你知道我知道这不是ac的康的皇后 you know I know it's not ac's kang's queens
你知道，这是一对力 it's a pair of force you know
所以我通常做的是 so what I usually do is
我只是把它拴得很紧 I just put it on a real short leash
你知道 you know
或者是一个很小的位置，比如这个点 or maybe a real small position as if this point here
你知道，如果我说这个低两网球 you know if I would say that this low on two tennis
现在这是非常关键的 it's pretty key now
你知道如果它来了，拿走了 you know if it comes and takes that
然后你就得到了两次反转 it's then you get the two reversals
它无法恢复，也无法待在里面 it's not able to recover or stay inside
我可能会把它放一边 you know I probably punt it
但我可能已经出局了 but I probably would already been out already
这类交易之一 now one of the this type of trade
你知道如果它不走 you know if it doesn't just go
我可能已经醉了，但是 I probably just be out of it already but
我不知道，我只是 I don't know I just
这就好像我不是 this is like again I'm not
我觉得我不会陷入这种境地 I don't think I'd be in this situation
对你诚实 be honest with you
杰夫问你是如何管理你的清单的 jeff is asking how you manage your list
比如在甲板上或者其他地方 like high on deck or others
你每周都清理一些吗 do you clear some out weekly
你有ipo或其他观察名单吗 do you have an ipo or other watch list as well
是的，所以我一直 yeah so I have I keep
我有一个ipo名单 I keep a list for ipos
但是他们也在我的 but they also go on my
它们将与我单独的ipo名单一致 they will go with my separate ipo list
他们也会去甲板上 and they will also go high on deck or
或者我的生物菌列表 or my biolert list
但基本上我有一份观察名单 but basically it's I have watch list
高高在上，被侵犯了 high on deck and violered
因此，随着股价的上涨，我的名单上也会出现相应的变动 so as the stocks improve they'll move up my list
我整个星期都在监视他们 I monitor them all week long
周末我做一个彻底的重置 on the weekend I do a complete reset
我基本上把名单上所有的名字都看了一遍 I basically go through all the names on the full list
看看还有什么好看的 see what still looks good
把它移上来看 move that up to watch
抹去一切 erase everything else
运行我的屏幕，添加到这个列表中 and run my screens and add to that list
我每周都会重复做同样的事情 and I just do that same thing every week over and over
地毯你知道 rug you know
漂洗，漂洗，漂洗，重复 rinse clean you know clean rinse repeat
詹姆斯要求标记里奇 james is asking to mark ritchie
你有一个一般的角色或指导方针吗 do you have a general role or guideline
至于如何和何时 as to how and when
你会收紧止损 you would tighten up your stop losses
股票和你的投资组合 of the stocks and your portfolio
尽量减少整体亏损 to minimize overall drawdowns
你是在什么时候、什么时候提高曝光率的 do you do it when you're building up exposure and when
市场正在涌入 the market is coming in hard
上周你提到了这一点 last week you mentioned this
这和你增加曝光率的方式相似吗 is that this is similar to how you build up exposure
在个股 in individual stocks
我通常不 I don't normally
如果我冒着成倍的风险 if I'm at a multiple of my risk
会是第一个地方吗 would be sort of one of the first places
,我想 where I'm thinking
我想至少不要在这个交易上停止 I want to at least not take a full stop on the trade
所以我想搬家 so I'm looking to move
在那个点止损点可能会上升 the stop potentially up at that point
但 but
我过去也提到过 I'm also I've alluded to in the past
我想他指的是 I think what he's referring to is
你知道有时候我可能会增加更多的曝光率 you know sometimes I might put on a lot more exposure
但我不会让一切 but I'm not gonna let everything
尽管如此，还是要停止 go to the full stop although
我不会让他们任何一个上移 I won't move any of them up
马上，因为我想看 right away because I want to see
如何行动 how things act
但一般来说我会的 but as a general rule I will
我将开始停止移动 I will start moving stops
当我冒着成倍的风险时 when I'm at multiples of my risk
或者我确实觉得市场可能很脆弱 or if I do feel like the market may be vulnerable
我只是做了一些投资组合的计算 I just make some portfolio calculations in terms of
到止损点的总金额是多少 what is the total draw down to stops
如果我不是 and if I'm not
让我们说，接受它很舒服 comfortable taking that so let's say
我脑子里通常都有这个数字 that's a number I usually always have in my head
所以我要问的是我该停在哪里 so where am I to stops is what I'll ask
我们在哪里停下来 where are we to stop
我会一直问布兰登这个问题吗 is what I'll ask brandon all the time
确保我们知道 making sure we know
最坏的情况是什么 what is the worst case scenario at all times
如果这是最坏的情况 well if that worst case scenario
比我想要的多吗 is more than I want to take
你知道的 then I you know
我可能会直接减少曝光 I may just cut exposure outright
如果我认为市场很脆弱 if I think the market is vulnerable
但我通常会做的是移动一些站点 but usually what I'll do then is move some stops
到那个点 to the point then where that
这是我能接受的水平 that's a level I'm comfortable with
是的，关键是你总是想 yeah the key is that you always want to
从最坏的情况开始 start off with the worst case scenario
这在数学上是可以接受的 that is mathematically acceptable
所以你知道最坏的情况 so you know your worst case scenario
最坏的情况是和你的 and that worst case scenario is in relation to your
你的奖励是最好的情况 your reward your best case scenario if you will
或者你的或者你的奖励你的 or your or your reward your
你的平均最佳情况 your best case scenario on average
你能做到这一点，然后 and you manage that and then
你想要改善最坏的情况 you want to improve that worst case scenario
随着交易开始向你的方向移动 as the trade starts moving in your direction
你知道完美的例子是 so you know perfect example is
股票上涨，你的股票就能达到收支平衡 stock moves up you move your stock to break even right
现在你已经改善了最坏的情况 so now you've improved your worst case scenario
你还在给股票 and you're still giving the stock
有上升空间 room to move on the upside
现在你知道什么时候最重要的问题总是“不”了吧 now you know when the big $64,000 question is always no
你什么时候做这些动作 when you when do you make these moves
你知道最主要的是你想要计算数学 you know the main thing is is you want to take the math
这是发生了什么 here's what happens
很多人都很 a lot of people get very
专注于一件事或另一件事 focused on one thing or the other
所以他们真正关注的是技术因素 so they're really looking at the technicals
或者他们真的在看数学 or they're really looking at the math
他们开始真正关注数学 and they start really focusing on the math
好，我涨了x % so okay I'm up x %
我要把我的停在这里 I'm going to cinch my stop up here
但是他们忘了看图表 but then they're forgetting to look at the chart
但是你的数学 and see okay but your math
你的数学方程或者你的基础 your math equation or what you're basing it on
图表 the chart
看起来比那个好很多，也可能比那个差很多 looks much better than that or much worse than that
所以你得把他们两个都娶过来 so you have to marry the two
我总是说顺其自然 I always say let the
电子表格进入你的交易 spreadsheet make its way into your trading
看看图表 so look at the chart
看看股票是如何交易的 look at how the stock is trading
看看什么是不正常的 and look at what's abnormal
不正常，先弄清楚 abnormal try to figure that out first
我喜欢这种情况这种交易会变味 I like where would this be where would this trade sour
然后回到数学中说，好的 then back into the math and say okay
如果我运用数学方法 if I apply the math how does that
这和图表有什么关系呢 how does that work with the chart
这两个有区别吗 is one way off from the other
你正在努力弥合这两者之间的鸿沟 and you're trying to bridge the gap between those
在你回到交易的地方工作 and work where you're backing into trades
这在数学上讲得通 that make mathematical sense
我是说，我知道我有点 I mean I know I'm kind of
来回答你的问题 going off with a little bit to answer your question
但我想给你点颜色看看 but trying to give you some more color around it
所以你可以 so you can
了解自己和马克的想法 understand and how myself and how mark thinks
进入这些领域 going into these things
这样你就不用想那么多了 so then you don't have to think as much in
确切的时间是黑白分明的 black and white as to exactly when
但您将知道它背后的概念的方法 but you'll know the approach on the concept behind it
你可以自己做决定 you'll be able to make those decisions on your own
它们总是好的决定 and they'll always be good decisions
因为它们总是基于基础的 because they're always based
关于这两点 on those two things
一起工作 working together
均匀 homogeneously
好吧，吉米在问 all right jimmy is asking on the tickersonville cyxt
C x y C x c x y c x
c y，抱歉，c y x t x t，对 c y I'm sorry c y x t x t yeah
10号以12美元买的 bought it on the 10th at $12
我不知道 I don't know
为什么我对即将出现的图表有困难 why I'm having trouble here with the charts coming up
我现在在旅行，所以我没有 I'm traveling right now so I'm not
在我的办公室，也许吧 at my office so maybe
我的连接 my connection
但我这里有个很好的硬连接 but I got a pretty good hard connection here
好了，上车吧 here we go okay boarded on
第十次，对，我看到了 the 10th yep I see where right there
第二天它就蹲下来拦住了我 it squatted and stopped me on the next day
11号赔了11块25 the 11th at my loss of eleven twenty five
只是想问问你能不能帮我评估一下 just wondering if you can help evaluate
如果这是一个糟糕的交易者 if this was a bad trader
是啊，我不知道 ah yeah I don't know
这个我不太了解，让我看看cyxt this one I don't know much about let me see cyxt
我只是想在cyxt上提一下 which I just want to bring it up on cyxt
因为我不知道相对的力量是多少 because I don't know what the relative strength number
任何东西都在上面 anything is on this
我的意思是 I mean
不好意思，这看起来很投机 excuse me it looks very speculative
你知道它的价格很低 you know as far as it's low priced
你看，趋势才刚刚开始好转 you see the trend is just started to turn up
所以这并不是一个非常强劲的上升趋势 so it's not really in a very strong up trend
要么盈利，要么全部亏损 there's the earnings or all losses
估计 the estimates
你看不见他们，但估计是全部 you can't see them but the estimates are all
未来的损失 losses going forward
最近的估计被向下修正 recent estimates were revised down
我们的基本面很差 so like fundamentals are pretty poor
购买基本面很差的股票 buying a stock with very poor fundamentals
低价的马上就到 that are low priced is right away
你现在在垃圾堆里，你知道的 you're in the junk pile you know and now
如果这是一个99相对的实力在一个真的强大 if this was a 99 relative strength in a really powerful
图表有一些真正强劲的上行空间 chart with some real strong upside
你知道的，我可能愿意参与进来，你知道的 you know I might be willing to go in this you know now
注意你和我 mark you and I
你可能比我更喜欢 you probably more than me
你知道，你可以去一些价格较低的地方 you know you you go into some of the lower priced
偶尔会有 ones every now and then
但不是不公平，不是经常不公平 but not not to be fair not very often
我偶尔也会这么做，但是 I do it on occasion too but
我的意思是，我真的不知道 I mean I don't really
经常记得我们在哪里买的股票 remember too often where we're buying stocks that
你知道有 you know have
收益状况不佳 not a great earnings profile
而且价格低廉 and they're low priced
它们的alpha值并不高 and they're not really high alpha
就在你数到三的时候 right right when your stack goes three
如果我要降低价格 and if I'm going to go into lower prices
我绝对想要高rs I definitely want the high rs
我想说的是 what I would say though is
我想如果你两天前买的话 I think if you bought it two days ago
这是交易的正确方法 that's the right way to try it trade
这是个不错的主元 that's a not a bad pivot
不，不，没关系 no no it's fine
技术动作没问题 the technical action is fine
看看图表本身 and looking at the chart itself
但是问题是 but but the thing is is that
同样，它也没有处于非常强劲的上升趋势 again it's not in the very strong uptrack
这就是问题所在，你就是 see that's the thing it's it you're
你们可以试试这些 and you could try these you know these
这些类型的托盘会出现在我的 these type of trays will come up on my
一个月趋势模板 one month trend template
你们会看到其中一些 you'll see some of these
你知道他们会在哪里得到它 you know will come up where they get that
我们称之为早转 what we call an early turn
但要记住早期的转弯 but remember with the early turns you know
没有惯性 you don't have the inertion
动量，有时它们会出来 the momentum and sometimes they come out
他们把头伸出来 they stick their head out and
他们回来了 they come back in
波动性更大，因为他们需要更多时间 there's more volatility because they need more time
但在这个市场也是如此 but again in this market too
我的意思是这只是课程的一部分 I mean this is you know just part of the course
冲出去，回来阻止你出去 to break out and come back and stop you out
我要找的东西 what I would look for
是在找某种hardaway跨界车吗 is look for some kind of hardaway crossover
也可能是某种重置 or some kind of reset too if
我不知道你是否很了解我们公司 I don't know if maybe you know a lot about the company
或者发生了一些非常棒的事情 or something really great going on
我不知道，但是 I don't know but
也许我们可以重新开始 maybe look for a reset going forward
欺骗就是问 yeah deceive is asking
嗨,马克 hi mark
还有长痘的好日子，他 and good times when breakouts are working and he
都获得了很好的收益 are getting good gains
你如何使用这些游戏 how do you use those games
你会增加四分之一的收益吗 do you add a quarter to the gains
到每个全职职位 to each full position
或者你要加 or do you add
所有这些收益到下一个完整的位置 all those gains to the next full position
比如考虑他投资组合的25% like consider a full position 25% of his portfolio
你又在寻找一个非黑即白的答案 again you're looking for a black and white answer
而我没有 and I don't have one
我不是说我做得很好 I don't say well I made
你知道这笔交易有5万美元 you know 50,000 on this trade
我要把这些钱放进 and I'm gonna take that amount and put it into the
我不这么看 I don't look at it that way
我尽我所能尽可能多地持有头寸 I try to get the biggest positions on I possibly can
这是基于风险 that based on risk
当事情进展顺利时 when things are working
我一开始非常非常保守 so I start off super super conservative
事情是这样的 see the thing is that this is really about
这是非常个性化的 this is very individualized
你知道什么，什么适合我 you know what what what fits for me
不一定适合你吗 is not necessarily gonna fit for you
你知道你有 you know you've got it
有些人 some people
在5%到10%的位置上感到紧张吗 are nervous as heck with five ten percent positions
还有其他人把他们的 and then we have other people that put their
你知道喜欢 you know like
法国，还有刚回来的丹·雷耶斯 France and someone like dan reyes who just came back
你知道的 from a you know
提高百分之百 up a couple 100%
发现了 found back
把一切都还给我 giving it all back
然后再翻一番，赚100%的钱 and then ripping back and making 100%
以六分的成绩完成美国队的比赛 to finish in six on the u s
和测试的冠军 and testing championship
他把所有账户都加了x杠杆 he was putting his whole account for x leverage
有些人甚至从来没有想过这样做 some people could never even think about doing that so
但是这个概念 but the concept
我可以向你保证他所应用的概念 I can assure you that the concept that he's applying
风险回报也是一样的 risk reward wise is the same
只是使用更大的仓位尺寸 just using bigger position sizing
你只知道我的具体情况 you know as far as specific to me
我只能告诉你我是怎么做的 I can only tell you what you know how I do it
我通常从5%或10%的仓位开始 I start off with usually five or 10% positions
通常我的第一个脚趾头会在任何地方 and usually my first toe in the water would be anywhere
之间的 between those
百分之五到百分之十的位置 five and ten percent positions
自己投资最多可达25% on their own to as much as 25% invested
也许是5%的位置 maybe it's five five percent positions
两三个 it's two or three
百分之十的位置 ten percent positions
或者是一个25%的位置 or it's one twenty five percent position
但这就是我的方法 but that's sort of how I get to that
第一个脚趾在水里 the first toe in the water
如果开始起作用，我可能会把比例提高到50%也许 if that starts working I might move to 50% maybe it's
你知道3 4 5支股票 you know 3 4 5 stocks
如果只有5%可能会多一点 maybe a little more if I have only had 5%
或者只是几只占25%仓位的股票 or it's just a couple of stocks that are 25% positions
这也取决于 again depending on what
当时市场对我很不利 the market's throwing at me at the time
这就好像我是一个非常保守的人 now that's sort of like I'm real conservative there
你知道的，我把我的停车时间控制得很紧 you know and I'm keeping my stop super tight
如果事情开始好转，我就会加快速度 if things start working then I step it way up real fast
就好像我很有攻击性 like I get really aggressive
敞口是头寸大小 the exposure the position sizing
所有的东西都上升得非常非常快 and everything just moves up really really quickly
但就你所知，增量步进 but as far as you know that incremental stepping
你知道 you know
你只是在努力达到一个完整的位置 again you're just trying to work up to a full position
越快越好 as quick as you can
当你看到事情进展的时候 when you see things working
我不知道，马克，你怎么 I don't know mark how would you
是的，这就是直觉的部分 yeah this is lord of that intuitive feel part
每次都有一点不同 and again every time's a little bit different you know
就像我想的那样 like I think one of
你在周末视频里提到的高年级学生 the seniors you discussed in the weekend video
可能真的对人们有帮助 is probably really helpful for folks
因为你说好的 because you talked about well
看 look
市场会在哪里回落 where the market may pull back
但你知道，不要因此而失望 but you know don't get disappointed by that
正在寻找这些 be looking for those
那些股票比那只是把处理 those stocks than that are just putting in handles that
如果我们看到它的扩散 if we see a proliferation of that
它会给我 that's going to give me
那会让我变得更有攻击性 that would tip me off to be more aggressive
你知道，如果我们不知道 you know versus where if we don't
你知道我可能会 you know I might make
你知道买一个名字 you know buy one name
在这里或那里 here or there
但是如果我们看到 but if we see
一大堆像你这样的把手 a whole bunch of those handles like you
你画了一些图表 you were drawing in on a few of those charts
这只是表示同意的暗示 that's just the tip off to say okay
你有很多设置，甚至是新的想法 you've got lots of setups and or even new ideas
其他时候就不是这样了 other times not as much so
我想它是从 I think it's coming out of
如果你还记得从低谷中走出来 you know if you remember coming off the lows in
2020年 of 2020
一开始并没有太多的设置 initially there weren't a lot of setups
所以我没有开得很快 so I didn't go super fast
加上之前的市场非常不稳定 plus the market was incredibly volatile prior
所以我们没有很多 so we didn't have a lot of really well
建立正确的方 built right sides
还有这些大刹车的图表 and you had these all these charts of these big brakes
但在一两个月之内，或者斯旺斯 but then within a month or swanth or two you know
到了初夏，到处都是他们的布置 by early summer they were just setups everywhere
我真的很有攻击性 and I really aggressive
我知道你在找一个 yeah I know you're looking for a
你知道更多 you know more
硬数据 hard numbers
但我听到的是我的新平衡 but again what I hear how I do it is my new balance
我的新余额是多少 is my new balance
如果我持有10%的头寸 so if I'm taking 10% positions
如果我一开始有100万美元，现在我有 if I start off with $1 million and now I have
你知道1000005年 you know 1,000,005
现在10%是 well now 10% is gonna be
1,000,005的10% you know 10% of 1,000,005
不是一百万 not not 1 million
所以我使用较大的余额作为 so I am using the bigger balance as to
来扩大我的下一个头寸 to scale my next positions if that
如果这是问题的一部分 if that's part of the question
我很快地讲一下马克刚才说的 real quick just talking about what mark just said
寻找股票设置 looking for the stock setups
寻找正确的边 and looking for those right sides
举个完美的例子 in a perfect example
你知道 you know
dltr，我在周末的视频中讲过 dltr which I talked about in the weekend video
你看，他今天来了 you see it's coming to him here today
这是一个完美的动作 this is perfectly fine action
这正是这里应该发生的 this is exactly what should be happening here
当你进入供给时，你会在哪里停滞不前 where you stall out when you come into the supply
市场疲软 the markets weak
如果这只股票能保持稳定 and if this stock can hold and stay tight here
而市场在震荡中疲弱 while the markets weak in volatile
当市场开始好转的时候 when the market starts turning up
或者甚至在市场好转之前 or maybe even prior to the market turning up
这支股票将会暴涨 this stock will break out
这可能是一个领导者的出现 this could be a leader coming out
像igt这样的是另一种 something like an igt is another one
我不知道哪只股票会涨 I don't know which stock is going to
挺住，锻炼身体，做个领袖 hold up and and work out and be the leader
我只是一个和你一样的凡人 I'm just you know a mere mortal just like you
我只是买痘痘，止损而已 just buying the breakouts and cut my losses
但我我知道我要看什么 but I I know what I need to see
我知道我要看什么 I do know what I need to see
比如igt and like in something like igt
这就是我要看的 this is what I need to see
我现在就把这个拿出来 and I'll take this out right now
这样我们就能保持住 just so we can hold that
我去看看它在哪儿 I'll take a look where it is
这就是我们现在的处境 so here's where we are now
你知道这对我来说不适合 you know this is not biable for me
如果它垂直向上到右边 and if it goes straight up the right side here
那就随它去吧 so be it I let it go
但是这里有一点 but this comes in a bit here
或者保持紧密联系，在这里建立一个支点 or stays tight and builds a pivot right here
好吧，然后就开始了 okay then it starts getting where
现在我要开始考虑了 now I'm going to start considering it
我知道我摆脱了 I know I got off the
位置大小 position sizing
但我想继续 but I just wanted to segue on
和马克说的一样 to what mark was talking about
大概在右边 about the right side
建立并寻找这些轴心点 building and looking for those pivot points
瑞恩的另一个 ryan's another one
瑞恩是另一个 ryan's another one right here
今天就把它建好 say just build it coming in today
我把这个拿出来 let me just take this out
看这里，我有一个小小的想象力棒 see right here I had that little imagination bar
这就是我所说的想象棒 see that's what I call them imagination bars
然后我去看看结果如何 and then I go and I see how it played out
我观察它们是否生长 and I watched to see if they grow
顺便说一下，这是一个很好的练习 this is a great exercise by the way
做一个图表 take a chart
好吧，画出你想看到的 all right and draw in what you would like to see happen
但如果它是最优的，股票会是什么样子呢 but what would the stock look like if it was optimal
设置好了 set up okay
然后 and then
做一些看起来还为时过早的事情 go into something that's looking like it's early
然后画进去 and then draw it in
然后你就可以看着股票慢慢长大 then you can watch the stock grow into it
是长进去还是长出来 if it grows into it or grows out of it
你也可以看到你将如何开始看到如何 and you can also see how you'll start to see how
你自己的预测能力 well your own predictive ability these are
但这是一个很好的练习 but this is a really good exercise
我整个交易生涯都在做这个 I've been doing this my entire trading career
我之前在哪里有这个软件 where before I had this software
我猜你知道 and I guess you know what
这可能是原因之一 probably one of the reasons why
我已经开始这样做了 I have started doing this
这有点滑稽 it's kind of comical
戴夫，瑞恩和我谈过很多次了 dave and ryan and I have talked about this many times
当我们刚开始交易的时候 when we first started trading
我们以前买的是纸质书 we used to get the printed books
从日常的图表 from daily graphs
他们会把书的图表寄给你 they would send you the books charts
你知道，有很多的图表 there were you know big books of charts
一页上有四个图表 four charts on a page
他们会在周末寄出 and they would send them on the weekend
然后整个星期 then throughout the week
我没有制图 I didn't have charting
所以我就会画进去，看 so I would draw in I would watch
我会观察天数的变化 I would watch the days range
然后把天数范围画进去 and I would take the days range and I would draw it in
我就会手绘图表 and I would just hand plot the charts
未来的图表 the chart going forward
所以我用手做了这个 and so I did this you know with by hand
好几年了 for a number of years
所以我想它就变成了 so I guess it just became
我就是这样开始的 you know that was sort of how I started and
这就是我的创意之路 and that's how I built that creative you know
如果你愿意，想象一下 imagination if you will of being able to
我想，如果你期待的话 look forward if you I guess
格雷格在问这个问题 greg is asking that
他认为你上周提到过 he thinks you mentioned in the last week or so
你大概有2025%的酒量 you were about 2025% fested
那已经不存在风险了吗 is that already de risked
你在实力和资金方面卖了部分 where you've sold partials in the strength and finance
的停止 the stops
嗯，是的，我卖过 um yeah I have I have sold
你知道每天都在变化 you know it's changes from day to day
有时会，不过我有过 sometimes but yeah I have
取一些绝对的偏导数 taken some partials absolutely
迈克尔zaskay michael zaskay
马克 mark
你能准确地说出你会怎么做吗 can you walk through exactly how you would have gone
关于12月购买gpr的事情 about buying gpr e in December
2004年12月 December of 2004
让我们回到那里 let's go back there
我想我以前可能用gpr交换过 I think I might have traded gpr e back then
我记得我很确定 I remember that I'm pretty sure
你是说 are you talking about
这就是我交易gpr的地方 well this is the spot actually that I traded gpr e from
是在这里 was right here
我会告诉你等等 I'll show you hold on
这个交易我记得很清楚 right there I remember this trade really well
我一看到图表就知道了 I know the chart as soon as I saw it
这要追溯到2013年 this was back in 2013
我就是在这里交换gpr的 that's where I traded gpr was right here
看看这有多教科书 and again see look how textbook it is
大 the big
你知道大的VCP形式，然后你看到小的 you know big vcp forms and then you see the little
这个小VCP，看看这个小作弊区 the little vcp and look at the little cheat area
在有把手的大杯子里 within the bigger cup with handle
它只是教科书 it's just textbook
但是看看这是如何交易的 but see look at how this trades compared to
我们现在看到的 what we're seeing now
我们刚刚在哪里吃过这些 where we just had some of these
关于股票的问题爆发了 questions about stocks that broke out
然后他们失败了 and then they fail
看看这些交易是如何爆发的 look how this trades breaks out
隔天休息 gaps the next day
之前通过 follows through
有序地回到新的高地 pulls back orderly right back to the new high ground
网球动作 tennis ball action
这当然是我书中的一个例子 this is of course an example in my book
看看网球的动作 and look at look at the tennis ball action
看看它的效率有多高 look at how efficient that this moves up
抱20天抱时间 holds the 20 day to hold time
看，就是那个时候 see that's that's when
当东西成熟的时候 when things are ripe
让我们回到2014年的yorbai but let's go to yorbai which was 2014
具体是哪一天 what was this specific date was it
让我猜猜是6 17 let me guess was it 6 17
他说的是12月14日 he actually meant to December a 14
12月 December of
14 14
想想12月13日会变成14日 thinking December 13 going into 14
这是十二月的十二月 this is December of December
关于那个越狱者的事却没有反转 about the one breakout the reverse aren't there
这不是，这是十一月 well this is no this is November
12月在这里，低于200日移动平均线 december's over here below the 200 day moving average
所以我不确定 so I'm not sure like
也许你能帮我们澄清一下 oh maybe you can help clarify some of that with us
对，我们现在看到的是什么，因为这 yeah what are we looking at here because this is
我会选12月13日 I would he made december 13
12月13日 december 13
对好了 right okay
那么 so what
问题是什么，因为我把它放在这里了 and what's the question because this is where I put it
我得跳回顶端 gotta jump back up to the top here
让我们看看 let's see
你会在三四天之后买吗 would you have bought it above the three or four day
旋转或高于作弊区域的高度 pivot or above the high of the cheat area
我在上面买的 I bought it above
我是在1725英镑以上买的 I bought it above seventeen twenty five
在上面坐着12 16 above the sit the 12 16
我从那里开始买的 I started buying it there
然后我不记得我是否有全职工作了 and then I can't remember if I took a full position
或者我把它加进去 or if I added to it
但我记不清楚了 but I don't remember exactly
但我知道我是在那里买的 but I know I bought it through there and
我可能还加了一些 and I might have added to it
但我通常会这么做 but the way I would normally play this
马克也会这么做的 and mark would play it the same way
如果你在这里没有全职工作 if you didn't take a full position here
你可能会添加 you'd probably add to it
一旦它进入新的高地 once it got into new high ground
1774以上 above seventeen seventy four
这个标记对吗? is that correct mark
绝对没有 absolutely no
这是需要记住的 and again see here's the thing to remember
当事情成熟的时候，当事情开始运转的时候 when things are ripe when things are working
这东西就像魔法一样 this stuff works like magic
这简直不可思议，你就是在印钞票 it's like incredible and you're just printing money
这就是我认为的大秘密 this is the big secret I think is to
这需要纪律和等待 and this is what takes the discipline and the waiting
就像打扑克一样 it's just like poker
你知道你得坐下来，你得 you know you've got to sit and you've got
一个真正的牌手会把几百张牌叠在一起 a really good poker player will fold hundreds of hands
好吧 okay
然后坐着看完这一连串的冷牌 and just sit through that streak of just of cold cards
这样，这样，这样，就不会咬人了 and way and way and way and just won't bite
只是不会咬在低于标准 just will not bite at subpar
命题和这个是一样的 propositions and it's the same thing with this
因为你必须等待 because you have to wait
直到条件成熟 until the conditions are right
然后你要有 and then you've got to have the
真正的勇气和智慧 the courage and the smarts to really gas it
你知道什么时候一切顺利 and you know when things are working
赚很多钱 to really make a lot of money
这就是你做这件事的方法，你就得到了我所说的 and that's the way you do this and you get what I call
保守的咄咄逼人 conservative aggressive
交易考虑最好的投资 trading consider the best of investing
但那是在你愿意的情况下 but that's if you're to
给我的工作起个真正的名字 come up with a real name for what I do
当我 when I
称之为保守的侵略性，这是 call it conservative aggressive which is just again
在你不利的地方创造不对称的杠杆 creating asymmetric leverage where you're downside
你被你好斗的一面占了便宜 you're taken advantage of that aggressive side
但从一个非常非常低的风险进入点 but from a very very low risk entry point
这和保罗·琼斯导师所做的没有什么不同 and it's no different than what paul tutor jones did
保罗导师琼斯会 paul tutor jones would
选低买入下跌的市场 pick low he buy markets that were falling
还有很热的短线市场 and short markets that were hot
他做的更多的是一种相反的趋势 he did it more in a counter trend
时尚，但风险很低 fashion but from a very low risk standpoint
尝试了很多次，获得了很大的回报 with having lots of tries and having a big reward
我的模型是我做的很多事情 risk ratio my model is a lot of what I do
有风险的回报 with a risk reward
在保罗·琼斯导师在他自己的交易中所做的之后 after what paul tutor jones did in his own trading
这也是这里的关键 so again that's the key here you know
当它起作用的时候，效果非常好 see when it works it works great
当它不 when it doesn't
它是恐怖的 it works horrible
你可以，你会有的 you can you'll have
图表会爆发 charts will break out
图表上的一切看起来都很好 and everything looks pretty good on the chart
但如果它们不起作用 but if they don't work
这就是为什么你有你得不到的 that's why you've got you can't get so
在图表正确的时候挂了电话 hung up on all while the chart is right
图表是对的，但是条件 okay the chart's right but the conditions
环境的不 the environment's not
环境不对，而且 the environment's not right and and
我想回去看看也不错 I guess it's good to go back and look at
威廉奥尼尔的书 william o'neill's book
我想我在一两周前提到过 I think I mentioned this a week or two ago
上面有一页叫 there's a page on there called a
对智者的高声警告 loud warning to the wise
他在那个封闭的小区域解释道 and he explains in that little blocked off area
他说有时候你知道 he says there's times where you know
几个把手是不行的 a couple of handles are not gonna work
是时候拿现金了是时候等待和准备了 it's time to be in cash it's time to wait and prepare
当他们开始工作的时候 for the time when they start working and
然后你进去，然后你 and then you get in there and you
你变得咄咄逼人 and you get aggressive
丽莎要钱 lisa's asking on expe
有入口点吗 is there an entry point
试着去理解 trying to understand
从哪里下手比较好 where it would be a good entry point
是的，我的意思是 yeah well I mean
你当然可以阻止这个 you certainly could have blocked this on
2月8日 on February 8th
你知道的 you know it was
如果一切顺利，那就再好不过了 it was decent again if things were working
你知道如果如果 you know if if
如果 if
股票行情很好，我的股票也很好 stocks were working out well and I had a good wave and
你们知道市场是 you know market was
坚持了一天，我得到了这样一个装置 held the fall through day and I get a setup like this
我可能需要一些东西来工作 I probably need things to be working quite a bit though
来进行这种设置 to take this type of setup
但我也会参与 but I would be on this
你知道我肯定会买的 you know I would definitely be buying this
当然，现在你要考虑的是收入 now you were going into earningsof course right
你买了，然后得到收益 so you're buying it and then you get into earnings
现在你有了一点缓冲 now you've got a little bit of a cushion
所以你也许能经受住一些波动 so you can maybe weather some volatility
所以你要考虑到这一点 so you got to take that into consideration
但这就够了，够紧了 but this was enough it was tight enough
如果你在这里测量 if you measure right here
这是关于 it was about a
约5%的 about a 5%
从这里撤退 pull back right here
这就是VCP的作用 so again this is you know vcp action right here
现在就来看看 take a look now
你的底子挺大的 you got a big base here right
所以从这里开始衡量 so measure from here
我们得到了什么，大约26% what do we got here we got about 26%
好的，我们从这里开始测量 all right we measure from here
这是你的第二 here's your 2nd
牵引约20 traction about 20
好的，然后这里 right okay then here
现在你16岁了 now you're at 16
而现在你已经5岁了 and now right here you're at about five
你看课本 you see textbook
二十六二十一一十六五 twenty six twenty one sixteen five
如果你看这里 now if you take a look here
我们从主轴上画一条线 and we draw a line from the pivot
看看会发生什么 lo and behold what happens
看，就在这片区域 look it's setting up right at the area
有MEL可以通过的地方 where it has a mel to get through
这里反转，这里反转，这里反转 reversed here reversed here reversed here
现在这个区域收紧了 and now it tightens up right at that area
当你逃出那里的时候 and when you break out of there
你清空所有的补给 you clear all that supply
现在交易又不太顺利了 now again trades aren't working very well right now
所以你知道 so you know
你可能会想要 you probably want to take something like
它的位置很小 this with a small position and
如果碰巧是一个领导者，它会很成功 and if happens to be a leader and it takes off great
至少你的仓位很小 at least you have a small position
总比没有位置好 better than no position right
嗯 um
问题 question
我不记得是谁问的re g n I can't remember who was asking about r e g n
我认为不是 I think was no
询问你将如何评估今天的价格走势 asking how you would evaluate today's price actions
这违反了今天的价格走势 it's a violation today's price action
不，这不是违规 no it's not a violation
这完全是意料之中的 and it's totally to be expected you know
记住我说过的话 remember what I said
我们马上就到补给站 we're coming out here going right into supply
你看，在枢轴上画一条线 you see draw a line through the pivot
从枢轴的顶端 from the top of the pivot
从左边画一条线穿过底部 draw a line to the left through the base
然后看看这条线以上的是什么 then look at what's above that line
有多少交易 and how much trading is there
有多深在水深和距离上你有多远 how deep how far away you are in depthand distance
所以这是相对较近的 so this is relatively nearby
从左到右都有很多 and there's lots of overhead to the left right
总是向左边看有没有车辆 always look to the left for traffic
当你讲到这个的时候 now when you come into that
这应该 this this should
遇到麻烦 run into trouble
你知道，即使它涨了几天 you know and even if it ran up for a few days
大概是660级吧 maybe came up to the 660 or something
那里会有补给的 it's gonna run into some supply there
以及它是如何处理的 and how it handles that
这是关键 that's the key
所以我们现在看到了一些波动 so we're seeing some volatility now right
这不是保持安静 it's not staying quiet
这意味着我们需要更多的时间 so that means we need more time
我们需要更多的时间 we need more time
这需要收紧 this needs to tighten
谁知道呢，也许这里会收紧 now who knows maybe this tightens up right here
也许这几天会很紧 maybe this gets tight for a number of days
让我们再发挥一点想象力 let's use a little imagination again right
哦,那不是 oh that's not
很抱歉 sorry about that
我们来看看，再试一次 let's see here let's try that again alright
也许这需要一点时间 maybe this you know it takes a little bit of time
并形成了一个 and forms a
这里有一个支点 a little pivot here
我在这遇到了很大的麻烦 I'm having real trouble here with this
画它好 drawing it nicely
然后从这里出来 and comes out of here
你还是会去的，你知道 well you're still gonna go you know
再画一条线，还有供给 you draw another line you still have some supply
所以这个可能也会有一些供应 so this is probably gonna run into some supply too
你知道的 you know so again
你可能需要建立几个支点 you might have to build a couple pivots
逐点的终极 the ultimate by point
可能在这里 might be way up here
可能在这里 might be up here
你现在经历了什么 where now you've gone through
这就是为什么我们有低作弊率 and this is why we have the low cheat
作弊和把柄 the cheat and the handle
好，现在也许你形成了一个 all right so now maybe you formed a
在这里形成一个很好的把手 you form a nice handle right here
然后你再经历一些 and you go through some more
向后拉，再收紧，然后从那里 pull back and some tightening and then from there
最终你知道你在这里买了它 ultimately you know you're buying it here
现在如果我们继续抱歉 and now from there if we take up sorry
来吧 come on
好，现在看一下 okay now look at it
现在你所看到的 now you see
你爆发 you're breaking out
你几乎清空了所有的供给 and you're clearing almost all the supply
唯一的供给在这里 and the only supply is over here
只待了五天左右 was only about five days or so
它短暂交易的地方 where it briefly traded
这要追溯到6到8个月前 and it's all the way back 6 7 8 months ago
那么这是怎么做到的呢 right so now how does that work
在你的实际决策中 in your actual decision making
我可以我现在就可以问马克·里奇 I can I can ask mark ritchie right now
问问他要怎么做决定 and ask him how he's gonna make his decisions
如果按此股票设置 if this stock set up according to this
这些枢轴点 these pivot points
我很清楚他要做什么 and I know exactly what he's gonna do
他从保守主义开始 he's gonna start off conservative right here
如果有效并且成立，他可能会在这里加上 and if it works and it holds he might add right here
然后如果这里真的变得非常好 and then if it's really gets really good right here
他会变得很有攻击性 he's gonna get real aggressive
你知道他肯定会把球放在哪里 you know where he's certainly gonna hold it
然后持有股票，做更大的变动 and hold the stock and play it for a bigger move
他会逐步买进这支股票 he's gonna incrementally move into this stock
因为它越来越好了 as it's getting better
更好并不意味着价格更低 and better is not does not mean a lower price
更好的通常是我们所做的 better is usually for what we do at least
通常价格更高 is usually at a higher price
我常常这样想 I often think of it too just
你知道smoothie的类比很有用 you know smoothie's analogies help
把它想象成重量 but think of it like weight
你知道那只是 you know that is just
如果你曾经接受过类似的训练 if you've ever done any training with like
重量背心之类的 a weight vest or whatever
然后你把它拿下来 and then you take it off
你知道搬家要容易得多 you know how much easier it is to move
你知道供给越多 you know the more supply
就像重物压在股票上一样 it's just like weight sitting on top of the stock
这就是为什么 so that's why
你知道有时 you know sometimes
你们的评论就像 you guys make these comments like
这一切都开始了 all this thing just took off
你知道，就像那样 you know like it was
就像魔法一样 like it was magic
因为那里没有更多的供应 well it's because there's no more supply there
你知道如果是偶数 so you know if even
你知道的，现代的购买量 you know a modern amount of buying comes in
上面没有重物 there's no weight over it
所以它就是它就是这样 so it just it's so
更容易运行 much easier to run
这就是马克的观点 so to mark's point
我当然想从保守开始 of course I want to start conservative
当我体重增加的时候 when I've got a lot more weight
我要对抗的是 I'm contending with you know moving against
还有下一个问题 and the next question that I'll get
通常我说话的时候 usually when I say something
当我展示这样的东西时，人们会说 when I show something like this is the people say
那为什么背叛了他的卑微的脸颊 well then why betrayed the low cheek
如果要供应，为什么不等把手呢 if it's going into supply why not wait for the handle
因为你不是总能掌控局面 because you don't always get a handle
这是第一点 that's number one
第二，有时低级的欺骗很厉害 number two sometimes low cheat is an awesome
太棒了，你可以变得很有攻击性 awesome setup that you can get very aggressive
左边的供给没有出现 and the supply to the left doesn't look
像这样拥塞，你得到一个更干净的设置 congested as this where you get a much cleaner setup
供应在更远的地方 the supply is further away
它很浅 it's very shallow
altility那里的 altility there's there
你必须得到 you have to get
你知道 you know
你得过好几年才能看清 it's gonna take years before you are able to see
好吧，这真的这是一个很好的低作弊 okay this is really this is a great low cheat
这是王牌 this is aces here
你知道我有，我有一个真的 you know I got it I got a really
踩到这里 step it up here
开始的时候，你必须更加机械 and the beginning you've got to be more mechanical
你做到了 and you've got it
你知道，玩游戏更聪明 it's smarter to play you know
逐渐, progressively and to
你知道的 you know with the
假设低的 assume that the low
骗子会有更多的供应 cheats are going to have more supply
有一点 and be a little bit
也许 maybe
更多的保守 more conservative there
但最终你会知道的 but eventually you get to the point where you'll know
真正伟大的低欺骗来自 the really great low cheats from
低水平的作弊可能是有问题的 the low cheats that are maybe questionable
在这一点上，这一点肯定是有问题的 this one is definitely questionable at this point
这就像扑克牌和王牌一样 and again it's just like playing cards and aces
你知道 you know
当你得到一对a时，你已经看了牌 when you get a pair of aces you've look at the cards
你看到王牌王牌 you see ace ace
你知道你知道这是一手好牌 you know you know this is a great hand
你不需要做这个决定 you don't have to make that determination
就像我们这里一样 like we do here
我们必须做出正确的决定 we've got to make that determination right
所以你决定了 so you the determination is made
现在这是一个问题 now it's a matter
你会每次都用王牌赢吗 are you gonna win every time with aces
不，不，你可能会输 no no you could lose
我已经连续输了四五次了 I've lost four or five times in a row with aces
你知道这很令人沮丧 you know it's frustrating
这并不意味着你不再玩王牌游戏了 what it doesn't mean you stop playing aces
这里也是一样的 so with here you know the same thing
你要你要评估它就像 you're gonna you're gonna evaluate it just like
扑克手 poker hand
当牌出来的时候，手牌开始变好了 as the cards come out the hand starts to improve
从一对开始 you start here with a pair
然后改进到一个集合 and then you improve to a set
你知道，现在你知道出现了 you know and now the you know appear
你知道董事会不是 you know the board is not
这不是一个危险的董事会 it's not a dangerous board
你已经有了一套，现在你 and you've got a set and now you
你知道，把所有东西都塞进去 shove all in you know
随着手的改善，你要做一些调整 as the hand improves you are going to make adjustments
我知道我经常跑题 I know I know I go off the question a lot
但我只是想给你们更多的色彩 but I just try to give you guys as much color
尽可能多地接受教育 as much education as possible
布莱恩问的问题 question brian's asking about
今天给CLR的收益以后再算 earnings that are for clr today do afterwards
你知道我以前做过销售 you know I've looked into sell before
没有足够大的垫子 without having a large enough cushion
我希望的是 well I was hoping for
我当然不希望这样 and I certainly wasn't hoping for
俄罗斯会发生不好的事情 bad things to happen in Russia
当我说我是 is when I say I'm
寻找消息来转移我的股票等等 looking for the news to move my stocks and so forth
我不认识推特上的一些人 I don't I know some people on Twitter
当我说这些的时候 when I say things like this
他们很生气，他们说 they get upset and they say
你从人们的死亡中获利 you're profiting from people dying
你知道 you know
听着，俄罗斯发生的事不是我造成的 look I'm not causing what's happening in Russia by
在网上交易股票 trading stocks on the online stocks
所以我一直在寻找 so but I was looking for
我想我们可以去买一些 I was thinking we might get some
冲入新闻 news from rasha
因为有一些动作，有一些 because there was some movements and there were some
事情没有 things that weren't
星期五去那里的方向是正确的 going in the right direction there on Friday
我在想 I was thinking that
周末可能会有点紧张 we might get some tension over the weekend
也许我们今天能有个空档 and maybe we get a gap today
我本来打算和 and I was going to with
我本来打算 I was going to
拿下CLR上的位置 take down the position on the clr
也许这些石油股中的一些会进入收益 maybe some of these oil stocks going into earnings
有一个垫子 to have a cushion
并且能够通过收入 and to be able to go through earnings
不幸的是，情况恰恰相反 unfortunately it went the opposite way
幸运的是，乌克兰放弃了 fortunately for Ukraine it went
相反的方式 the opposite way
但对于石油股来说 but for the oil stocks
看起来像是 it looks like the talks of
外交手段仍在谈判桌上 diplomacy still being on the table
我认为这给石油名称带来了一些压力 as put some pressure I think on the oil names
所以现在只有百分之几的人需要做出决定 so now there's a decision to be made only up a couple %
很抱歉，我不知道为什么会有hlf在这里 and I'm sorry I don't know why I have hlf up here
不知道 no idea
但clr but clr
现在就要做出决定了 now the decision is to be made
只有2.5%的利润 with only a two and a half percent profit
转化为收益 to go into earnings
我认为 and I think
鲍勃 bob
对于8%的变动，我们看到的期权定价是什么 what are we looking at options pricing about an 8% move
没错，所以它是它是 that's right so it's it's
选择暗示着会有 options is implying that there's gonna be
大约8%的变动 about an 8% move
在收益 on the earnings
这是一个很大的举动 so that's a pretty big move you know
我的意思是相对于2%的利润而言 I mean relative to having a 2% profit
所以我想你知道 so I think you know the
这可能是最好的情况 probably the best case scenario
我会把它切成两半吗 would be that I'm gonna cut it in half
或者在最坏的情况下 or in the worst case
会在盈利前出售吗 would be just selling it before earnings
我可能会 I'll probably
切成两半 cut it in half
因为它看起来像 because it looks like
这里的油区生意不错 the oil area is doing pretty good here
即使事情进展得很顺利 and even when things are going really well
坏消息是这是事实 bad news is that is is
有时被认为是好消息 is responded to as good news sometimes
好消息被当作真正的好消息来回应 and good news is responded to as really good news
当事情变得很糟糕的时候 when things are going poorly and you know
团队表现不佳，一切都处于压力之下 groups acting poorly and everything's under pressure
好消息也会受到惩罚，坏消息也会受到惩罚 even great news gets punished and bad news gets
湮灭了，所以我想你知道 annihilated so I think you know
可能愿意 probably willing to
也许要小一点的仓位 maybe going with a smaller position
而是像明天的拱门一样 but something like an arch to tomorrow
的收入也有 there's earnings also
在打开之前 before the open
但是拱门的位置不同 but arch were in a different position
因为我们有利润 because we have a profit
一个不错的缓冲，已经卖出了一些 a decent cushion and sold some already
詹姆斯，我周五看了nasa james I looked at the nasa on Friday
注意这个双头 notice the double top
当价格跌破低点时 and when the price move below the low
在他们俩之间，我把所有东西都卖了 between the two I sold everything
正负位置 positive and negative position
所以我有点训练过度，决定观看比赛 so I was a little over training and decided to watch
然后慢慢进入 and re enter slowly
这是一个错误的恐慌细胞吗 was this a panic cell which is a mistake
或者这合理吗 or is it reasonable
他是新入会的 he's new to the membership
对不起对不起 excuse me sorry
我不确定是双头的 I'm not sure double top
双头鞋是什么时候的 when was the double top
这是双头的吗 was this the double top right here
我得同意了 I'm gonna have to say yes
因为周五 because on Friday
当他拿出前几周的低潮时 when he took out the lope of the prior weeks low
他说他把所有东西都卖了 is where he's saying he sold everything
全面 across the board
以下是前几周 the prior weeks below
我不知道 I don't know
我是说我们已经有手机信号了 I mean we're already on a cell signal since
从11月来到这里 since over here on November
20秒，所以我不知道为什么现在要行动 20 seconds so I'm not sure why the action now is
你的不祥的行动 your ominous action
你们知道这个分布 you know the the distribution
正如我在周末的视频中指出的 as I pointed out in the weekend video
那应该是个警告，而且 that yeah should have been a warning and
然后看看你的个股 and then looking at your individual stocks
并决定是否 and deciding whether
你想要收紧刹车，或者你知道的 you want to tighten the stops or you know
坚持你的 stick with your
你所拥有的站点 the stops that you have
但我们已经做到了 but certainly we're already
你知道我已经加入了 you know I'm already in
我已经 and I've already
被 been
告诉你几个月要有一大笔现金 telling you for months to be in a high cash position
是防守 to be defensive
所以我真的不能 so again I I can't really
我不知道怎么做 I don't know making
我不会做这样的决定 that's not a decision I would make
我已经在这个位置上了 I'm already in that position
所以我不确定 so I'm not sure
你知道 you know
你在想什么，你在做什么 what you are thinking or what you're doing there
我不知道双层的 I don't know about a double top
我可不想穿双上衣 I don't think about a double top
你知道，这不是双上衣 this isn't a double top you know
双顶的图案要大得多，但是 the double top is a much bigger pattern but
是的，我不确定我不确定他问我什么，鲍勃 yeah I'm not sure I'm not sure what he's asking me bob
跟你说实话 to be honest with you
这是个好决定吗 is it a good decision
我都不知道是怎么决定的 I don't even know what the decision was
你出售的东西 you sold everything
因为玛尔和纳斯把每周最低价都拿出来了 because the mar the nas that took out the weekly low
我知道我不认为这是个好决定 I know I don't think that's a great decision
我认为这是一个非常短视的决定 I think that's a very myopic decision
现在关于 now the decisions on
制造的规模越来越大 being made are being made on much bigger
更大的视野 a much bigger view
我想我已经分享了一个绝对不可思议的细节 that I think I've shared an absolute incredible detail
周末的视频 on the weekend videos
哈维尔要求 javier is asking
说他的股票正在上涨 commenting that his stocks are coming in
为了减轻压力 to take pressure off
我开始卖出三分之一或一半，持有剩下的 I start selling a third or half holding the rest
直到实际止损水平 until the actual stop loss level
当我下车或关门的时候我会庆祝 I celebrate when I get out of the stop or close
你有什么应对压力的建议吗 do you have any advice to deal with pressure
我不看pml I don't look at pml
进行心理预演 and do mental rehearsal
这种事在你身上发生过吗 did this ever happen to you
我是怎么了 did whatever happened to me
股票一下跌，他就抛售 he's selling as the stock comes off
在它到站之前 before it hits the stop
是的，他们说 yeah and they say
你有什么应对压力的建议吗 do you have any advice to deal with pressure
我看起来和你不一样 I don't look so you're
说你要在止损前卖出 saying that you're selling before it hits the stop
因为你感到有压力 because you feel pressured
实际上,你 and you're actually
绕过停止 circumventing to stop
不是故意 not purposely
只要你愿意坚持停 as far as you would like to stick with the stop
我想我们听到的基本上就是这样 I guess that would be basically what we're hearing
你受到了压力 that you're getting pressured and
你过早地出卖了自己 you're selling out prematurely
仓位过大 too large of positions
好吧，让我说两件事中的一件 all right so let me say one of two things
首先 first of all
这通常意味着你的交易规模太大 that usually means that you're trading too large
这是第一 that's No.1
如果你感到紧张，害怕和压力 if you're getting nervous and scared and pressured
那么你就是在交易 well then you're trading
大到足以造成那样的压力 large enough to cause that pressure like that
那个止损并不是你真正的止损 that stop loss isn't your real stop loss
这可能是你的止损点 that may be your stop loss
从技术上和数学上看 that you look at technically and mathematically
但情感上却不是这样 but emotionally it's not
你有情绪摇滚 you have an emo
这就是我常说的情感门槛 this is what I always say there's emotional thresholds
这就是为什么这些问题 that's why these questions of
你会把你的终点设在哪里 where would you set your stop and
你把你的终点设在哪里并不重要 that doesn't matter where would you set your stop
你知道感情 you know emotionally
你能接受这样的降价吗 can you handle that kind of draw down
所以你要摆好姿势 so you're gonna have to position
定好你的止损点 size and set your stop
基于你能控制的情绪 based around what you can handle emotionally
没关系 it doesn't matter
系统并不重要 a system doesn't matter
如果你没有自制力或情感 if you don't have the discipline or the emotional
控制才能跟随它 control to be able to follow it
所以我想说 so I would say
就像鲍勃说的，卖到睡觉的时候 as bob has said sell down to the sleeping point
我们称之为枕头因素 we call it the pillow factor
晚上可以睡觉的地方，你知道那是第一吗 where you can sleep at night you know that's No.1
但 but
就你所知，排练 as far as you know rehearsal
大家知道心理预演 you know mental rehearsal
你也应该去排练 you should also be rehearsing
你知道你将如何处理这些情况 you know how you're going to handle those situations
你打算如何应对这种压力 how you're going to handle that pressure
你知道结果会是什么 you know what is it going to result in
展望未来，说 looking forward and saying
如果这样，我会在哪里 where am I gonna be if this does this
那我该怎么办 where does that put me and then
想出你对此的回应 come up with with your responses to that
一次又一次 and again
这实际上归结于通常交易规模太大 it really comes down to usually trading too large
这是 that's
所以你才会觉得压力很大 that's usually why you feel so much pressure
好吧 all right
萨姆是问 sam is asking
在一个股票像微米亩 on a stock like micron mu
在其工作 working on its
2000年的历史最高纪录要追溯到2000年 2000 high all time high gets back in 2000
你是怎么想的 what do you think about that or do you
我不我不明白这是什么 I don't I don't understand what is the
什么问题? what is the question
你觉得微米怎么样 what do you think about micron
在2000年的高点工作 working at on the 2000 high
我什么也没想 I don't think anything about it
我不知道这是什么问题 I don't know what kind of question that is
我觉得在高处工作怎么样 what do I think about it working on the high
我都不知道跟你说实话意味着什么 I don't even know what that means to be honest with you
抱歉，我不想听起来很讽刺 I'm sorry I don't want it sounds sarcastic
但我不知道那是什么意思 but I don't know what that even means
我是说我的微米符合我的标准 I mean my micron meets my criteria
我不认为 I don't think
我只是等待股票符合我的标准 I just wait till stocks meet my criteria
我买的是那些先启动先爆发的 I buy the ones that set up first that break out first
当事情进展顺利的时候，我就提高我的持仓规模 and when things are working I raise my position sizing
不管我能不能把它弄下来 whether or not I bring it down
直到他们的股票符合我的标准 and until their stocks that meet my criteria
我在现金中等待 I wait in cash
这就是我所做的一切 that's it that's all I do
我只是碰巧很擅长而已 I just happen to be really good at it
因为我干这行快40年了 because I've been doing it for almost 40 years
但我就是这么做的 but that's what I do
我的意思是，如果你想知道微米是什么样的 I mean if you want to know how micron looks
美光公司看起来进展不错 micron looks it's like it's shaping up
我一直在仔细观察 I've been watching it very carefully
我们还是从基础入手 again we'll just go through the basics
我们测量它 let's measure it
我们得到32% so we got 32%
好的，我们在这里，我们有 right we've got over here we've got
23%然后往右移 23% and now we move up the right side
如果这里能保持稳定 if this could stay tight right here
我们就说是50吧 let's just say it's rather 50
我们有7%，所以微米就是圣经 we got 7% so micron could be bible
好的，让我们发挥一些想象力 right let's use some imagination
但现在它是 but right now it is a
它在右边，被压缩了 it's it's run up this right side and it's compressed
这里有一些时间压缩 you got some time compression here
我们假设这个 so let's just say that this
增加了一点 builds out a little bit
也许这里还有个凹边 maybe even it has a little undercut here
我们得到了一些波动 we get a little bit of volatility
我想看的 which I would love to see
我想看它掉下来 I'd love to see it come down
也许可以把这个低点去掉 and maybe take out this low
回来，开始建造 come back up and start building
这里有一个枢轴 a pivot over here
等一下，对不起 hold on I'm sorry
只要我把它放大，一切就都说得通了 this is all gonna make sense once I widen it out
但这该死的东西快把我逼疯了 but this damn thing is driving me nuts
好吧，该死的 all right damn man
在不好意思 hold on sorry
现在你又有了一个小VCP so now you have again a little little vcp right okay
现在看起来好多了，对吧 so now look it's looking a little bit better right
这就是我看到的 so this is what I'm looking at
现在我要从这个枢轴上做同样的事情 now I'm gonna do the same thing from that pivot
马德罗线正好穿过 madro line right across
现在你看到它要被取出来了 now you see it's going to take out
如果这里能收紧就安静下来 if it could tighten up here quiet down
这会给我一个暗示 that's going to give me an indication
这 that this
左边的供给不再进入市场 supply to the left is stopped coming to market
这是一年前的货了 this supply is way back almost like a year ago
所以这并不重要 so that doesn't really matter
所以这里的供应量是最小的 so I'm looking at a minimal amount of supply here
如果右边可以收紧 so if this can tighten up in the right side
我可能会得到公平的待遇 yeah I'm probably gonna get fairly
你知道我可能会的 you know I'm probably gonna
把一微米放在biler list上 put a micron on the biler list
现在，它是在一个向上的步伐，你看 now again is it in an up tread you got a look
让我们一起来看看吧 let's take a look
每周的，好的，这里有一个警告 the weekly okay so now here's a caveat
它不符合趋势模板 it would not meet the trend template
但是就像我之前说的 however as I said before
对于大的基数，有时你会得到 with large bases sometimes you will get
长期移动平均线将趋于平缓 the longer term moving average will flatten out
前不久Netflix也发生过这样的事情 this happened with Netflix a while back
它们仍然是可行的 and they can still be viable
因为如果你看看这支股票 because if you take a look at this stock
这里有上升的趋势 it is in an up trend here
看这里的大基座 see this big base right here
你处于上升趋势 you're in an up trend
但是你已经进入了第四阶段 but you've gone into right here you at the stage four
你进入了第一个阶段，所以现在是早期阶段 you're coming on a stage one so it's early stage now
你是从这个大基地出来的 you've come out of this big base
但你已经暂时离开了 but you've temporarily moved sideways
而且基数很大 and a pretty large base
有时你可以得到移动平均线 and sometimes you can get the moving average
对平 to flatten out
你要走出一个早期的转弯 and you're gonna come out of an early turn
这就更高级了 that's a little more advanced
很明显，你们中的一些初学者会去 obviously some of you that are beginners are going
他到底在说什么 what the heck is he talking about
回去看看我的书 just go back read my books
所有阶段分析都在这里 all stage analysis it's all there
斯坦·韦恩斯坦是个 stan weinstein who's a
弗雷德里克，我经常和他聊天 frederick who I talk to on a regular basis
是，是 is the is the
父亲或祖父 father or grandfather
随便你怎么称呼 whatever you want to call
阶段分析的发明者 the inventor of stage analysis
我很幸运能打给你 I'm fortunate to be able to actually call
我随时都可以站着 stand anytime I want
谈论这些事情，但是 and talking about this stuff but
我接受了它，并添加了一些规则 that I've taken it and added some rules to it
去看看阶段分析吧 go take a look at the stage analysis
但是，是的，微米，我在看 but yeah micron I'm watching here
让我们把微米也打开 let's bring micron up also on
所以相对强度是91 so a 91 relative strength
你的收入不错 you got good earnings
你知道你的基本功很好 you know you've got some good fundamentals here
所以微米有一个大的基底看起来不错 so micron is looking good with a big base
但我们需要那个入口点 but what we need that entry point
还有一件事 here's another thing too
基本面良好，但价格准备好了 fundamentally sound but price ready
你可以持有一支基本面良好的股票 you could have a stock that is fundamentally sound
它的估值很高不管你怎么称呼它 it's got a great valuation whatever you want to call it
为它找个理由 make a case for it
从根本上 fundamentally
团队很棒，市场很棒 the group's great the market's great whatever
但技术上还没有准备好 but it's not technically ready
这不是可食用的 it's not biable by
我们想做的是 what we want to do is
我们找的不是好公司 we're not looking for good companies
我们在寻找好股票 we're looking for good stocks
我们不希望自己是对的 we're not looking to be right
我们希望自己是对的还是错的 we're looking to be right and no
我们马上就错了 we're wrong right away
我不希望是对的 I don't want to be right
从现在起两年后会是正确的 and be right two years from now
那样我就失去了所有的时间价值 as then I lose all that time value
我想买股票 I want to buy a stock
我想要么马上升职 I wanted to either move up right away
让我的钱 make me money
或者尽快阻止我出局 or stop me out as fast as possible
这样我就能做别的事了 so I could move on to something else
所以，关键是要等到一只股票可行 so it's all about waiting until a stock is viable
从一套一套的 from a set of a set of
参考点的参数或环境 parameters or circumstances of reference points
你知道会发生什么吗 where you know what should happen
当火车正点进站时该怎么办 what should when the train should come in on schedule
这个故事我说过很多次了 I've said this story many times
我将以这个作为结束 I'm going to end with this
我们可能还会有一两个问题 when we'll maybe have one or two more questions
但 but
我过去常从康涅狄格坐火车去纽约 I used to take the train to New York from connecticut
它来了 and it came in
我忘了当时是六点五分 I forget it was like six o five
如果我坐在上面 if I sat on that
站台，火车6点15分没来 platform and that train didn't come in and at 6 15
你知道这并不意味着什么，只是 you know it doesn't really mean much it's
我不能确定火车出了严重的问题 I can't ascertain that the trains got a serious problem
可能只是有点晚了 it might just be running a little late
但是如果它在6点5分就变成了8点15分 but if it at six o five turns into 8 15
发生严重错误的几率增加了 the odds of something being seriously wrong increase
每过一分钟六点五分 with every minute that goes past six o five
2h之后 so at 2h later
你可以放心某事 you could be rest assured that something
严重错误 seriously wrong
时间越长 and the longer that goes
我是怎么知道的 now how do I know that
我怎么能说和呢 how would I be able to say and
这个水晶球知道火车一定坏了吗 have this crystal ball to know the train must be broken
而且正确的概率非常高 and have a very high probability of being correct
因为我知道它应该在6点5分到 because I know it's supposed to come in at six o five
把这些信息去掉，8 15就没有任何意义了 see take that information away and 8 15 means nothing
我永远也不知道火车是否晚点了 I would never know whether the train is late
早到还是真的会来 early or if it's even coming
因为我知道它应该在6点5分到 because I know it's supposed to come in on six o five
这是100万美元 this is a multi $1000000
我给你的判决 sentence that I'm giving you
这是关键 this is the key
知道这一点就是我们使用图表的原因 knowing this is why we use charts
虽然我们有特定的参数 that while we have certain parameters
不是因为它们有魔力，有效果吗 is not because they're magic and because they work
因为我们有参考点 it's because we have reference points
现在我们知道如何测量了 and now we know how to measure
什么是正常的动作什么是不正常的 what is normal action what is abnormal
我们知道会发生什么 and we know what to expect
从那里我们可以 and from there we can make
准确的假设 accurate assumptions
或者足够准确的假设 or accurate enough assumptions
我们可以管理相关的风险 that we can manage risk in relation
这些假设 to those assumptions
这是有道理的 that makes sense
概率 probabilities
还好这是录下来的 good thing this is recorded
我猜是的 I guess yeah
最后两个问题 two last questions and
乔治问 george are asking
你如何找到期权定价来评估 how can you find the options pricing to evaluate
一个盈利的举动 an earnings move
这是我们的视频存档选项卡中的交易教程 that is a trading tutorial in our video archive tab
你可以向下滚动找到 you can scroll down and find the
我指导的教程 tutorial that I conduct actually
告诉你如何利用期权市场 showing you how you can use the options market to
找到市场价格的期望 find an expectation of what the market is price in it
你做了一个关于这个的教程，对吧 you did make a tutorial on that right yeah yeah
这是伟大的以赛亚问马克 that's great isaiah's asking mark
我们讲过长期趋势模型 we talked about the long term trend model
你提到有 you mentioned that there are
我认为他说得不准确 I don't think he's accurate
这四个组成部分参考了风险模型 the four components references the risk model
但你提到有两个指标下降了 but you mentioned two indicators are down
有更多的 is there more
在某个地方详细阐述长期模式 elaboration on the long term model somewhere
更细化的 a more elaboration
还有更多的描述，但我会分享的 yeah more description but I will share
这也是一个关于风险模型的交易教程 that is a trading tutorial on the risk model as well
风险模型有四个组成部分 and there are four components of the risk model
我想你可能和我一样困惑 which I think you may be confusing as I
风险也是如此 so also in the risk
长期趋势模型有四个组成部分 there's four components to the long term trend model
风险模型有四个组成部分 and four components to the risk model
它们完全不同 and they're completely different
但我要解释它们是什么吗 but am I gonna explain what they are
不我不是 no I'm not
这无关紧要 it's irrelevant
这是我最不希望你们关注的事情 that's the last thing I want you guys to focus on
好的，我想到此为止吧 all right and I think that will wrap it up then
所以今天 so for today
马克会 again mark will
我们今天已经强调了CLR的收益 we highlighted already rather the clr earnings today
阿奇科尔明天早上之前 arch cole tomorrow morning before
这周我们的空仓仓位都没有了 none of our open positions otherwise are this week
我想我们还有一周时间 I think we got another week
下周还会有更多 next week there will be some more
请关注你的直播 and watch your live stream for updated
来自马克的实时帖子 real time posts from mark
很明显 and obviously
这个录像回放将于 this video replay will be available on
只有几分钟的时间 just a few minutes time
再说一遍，马克，谢谢 and again with that said mark and mark thank you
对于你的时间 for your time
然后用头痛做标记 and mark making it with the headache
希望你早日康复 hope you feel better soon
对，顺便说一下 yeah and by the way real quick
我正在做一个位置大小的教程 I'm working on a position sizing tutorial
我认为这是我们所拥有的一种重复 that's sort of a repeat of what we have I think
在存档 in the archive
但我要再做一个 but I'm going to do another one
我在做几张幻灯片 I've been working on a few slides
我只是我现在在旅行，所以我会尽量把它弄进去 I just I'm traveling right now so I'll try to get it in
如果我能抽出点时间，也许这周我可以做 maybe I can do it this week if I could slip in the time
但我有一个教程要做 but I do have a tutorial that I'm gonna do
就像我说的，我们也会讲到这些 and like I said we are gonna also talk about those
这实际上是其中一个 well that's actually one of the one of the
你们提交的东西 things that you guys submitted
这是你目前最困难的事情 that was the things that you're having the toughest
与此相关的时间是最重要的定位 time with that was high up on the list positionizing
所以这就解决了另一个问题 so that would be addressing knocking off another
检查另一个 checking off another one of those
你说的那些事 things that you talked about that were though
给你带来了名单上最大的麻烦 giving you the most trouble on that list
所以我很快也会这么做 so I'm gonna do that pretty soon too
我知道我已经承诺过了 I know I've been promising it
但我一直在做一些幻灯片 but I have been working on some slides
就像我说的我们 and like I said we
有一个位置大小的教程 there is there is a position sizing tutorial
但它已经很古老了 but it's pretty old
好的，鲍勃，这是一段时间以前的 right bob that's from a while ago
两个反应 reaction of two
这么多年来我们一直在做，但是 in the years that we've done but
你知道，有两个你可以看的 you know so there are two that you can be watching
这确实描述了 that certainly do describe
如何知道你的指导如何确定你的 how to you know the guidance of how to determine your
每个人都与你的手腕忍耐力有关 each individual has to with your wrist tolerance
关于枕头的事实 the pillow fact yeah
我再做一个，我们有三个 I'm gonna do another one so we'll have three
我觉得这个会稍微多一点 and this one's gonna be I think a little bit more
如果你能再短一点，就指过去 pointed if you will maybe a little bit shorter
也许更切题一点 maybe a little bit more to the point
我要尽量让它更浓缩 I'm gonna try to make this more condensed
更结晶化 and more crystallized okay
我晚点再跟你们聊 so I'll talk to you guys later
感谢你们的出席 and mark thanks for attending
这绝对让人头疼 it's a headache absolutely
生活让我感觉好多了，谢谢你 I feel better by life thank you