啊 Ah.
嗨 Hi,
欢迎各位参加X培训的专业人士 一定要和我一起快速的视频系列 欢迎来到学院的办公室 everybody and welcome to the professional for X training must be fast video series with me hungry and welcome to the institute's offices.
我很抱歉 新加坡 Here I am sorry Singapore.
自从我们推出专业训练大师系列视频以来 已经有好几年了 It's been a couple of years since we launched the professional training masterclass video series.
这是一个巨大的成功 It's a great success,
很多人都完成了这门课程 and a lot of people have completed the course.
我将通过考试 最终成为学院的培训师 很多人实际上在研究所也非常活跃在外汇市场 I'd be through the examination and ended up becoming institute trainers and a lot of people are actually in the institute are are very active in the forex market as well.
所以在过去的几年里 我们不得不增加了很多的要求我们来开设一个外汇课程 So we had to add a lot of requests over the last couple of years for us to actually launch a forex course,
人们要求我们这样做是正确的 因为许多系统的过程被使用并被留在专业的培训大师班中 实际上可以应用于外汇市场 and people would be right in asking us to do that because many of the systematic processes that are used and had been left in the professional training master class for your service can actually be applied specifically to the forex markets.
这就是我们要做的 so that's what we're actually going to do here.
我们要找一个专业的交易员 We're going to take a professional trader.
绝大多数专业交易员 对冲基金和投资银行所使用的系统流程 The systematic processes that are used by the vast majority of professional traders and hedge funds and investment banks,
并将这些系统性的过程专门应用于外汇市场 and apply those systematic processes specifically to the forex market.
现在有很多噪音 Now there's a lot of noise,
外汇市场上的许多错误信息 a lot of misinformation in the forex markets,
可能在外汇市场 and probably in the forex markets,
比其他任何资产类别或任何其他市场都要多 more so than any other asset class or any other market out there.
这是有具体原因的 There are specific reasons why this is the case.
这是因为外汇市场的交易量非常大 而且很多人都有利益冲突 It's because the forex market is very heavily traded and a lot of people with conflict of interest.
走出去 或者把人推到我的方向去做错误的事情 Go out there and either push people in the direction I to do the wrong thing.
他们给出了很多错误的信息为了让他们得到报酬 我们将会完全相反 我们这样做的原因是我们是专业的交易者我们没有任何议程 除了教你如何正确地做这件事 They give a lot of misinformation in order for them to get paid and we're going to completely do the opposite and the reason why we're doing that is because we are professional traders and we have no agenda behind except to teach you how to do this properly.
当我们经过这门课的时候 So as we go through the course,
你会看到很多东西都可能是美丽的 you're going to see a lot of things that might need to be beauty,
这是一件很棒的事情 因为你需要新的东西 which is a great thing because you need new to for it,
在外汇市场上 你从来没有看到过任何东西 这是一个很好的起点 或者你在外汇市场上已经有很长一段时间了 作为一名零售交易员 and you'd never see anything in the forex market before and this is a great place to start or you've been around the forex market a long time as a retail trader.
也许你的成功是有限的 甚至是赔钱的 你会发现一场战争只是为了让校友们参与 And maybe you have limited success or even lost money finds a fight to make war just must alumni.
你知道 在外汇市场上 外汇市场上有很多人在与绝大多数人的斗争中赔了钱 And you know that there's a lot of people in the forex market in the retail forex market that lose money in fighting the vast majority.
一定要亏钱 Do lose money.
有一些非常具体的原因让我们来看看车里的那些 and there's some very specific reasons why we'll be looking at those inside vehicles.
但这没什么好不好的 因为在零售外汇交易市场上存在大量的错误信息和利益冲突 but it's nothing to feel bad about it because there's a lot of misinformation and conflict of interest in the retail forex trading market,
仅仅通过在这里 就很难避免 and it's very difficult to actually avoided well just by being here.
现在你已经开始避开它了 Now you've already started to avoid it.
我可以向你保证 我们将会采取专业的方法来接近他 并将帮助你持续盈利 I can assure you that we're going to be taking the professional try to approach him and were going to be helping you to become consistently profitable.
在我们开始建造这些大型的 有时复杂的建筑之前 Before we actually go into building at these large and sometimes complex,
系统过程 systematic processes,
我们要做的是为你打下一个基础 what we're actually going to do is lay a foundation for you.
在本系列视频的第一部分中 你要做的是让你自己真正理解并建立一个基础 And what you will have been to achieve in the first part of this video series is to actually get yourself a really solid understanding and build a foundation.
然后了解外汇市场的基础 Then understanding the underpinnings of the forex market.
我们首先要关注的是货币的定义 The first thing we're actually going to focus on is the definitions of currencies.
你会发现什么 What you're going to find.
也就是说 有一些广为流传的关于外汇的定义 it is that there is some widespread kind of classically accepted definitions of forex,
这些定义倾向于关注人们所关注的货币的经济规模 and these definitions tend to focus on the size of the economies of the currencies that people look at.
在视频1中 In video one,
我们将会看到这些经典的定义我们会将它们与真正的专业交易员进行比较 we're going to look at these classically accepted definitions and we're actually going to compare them to what a real professional traders do.
所以你可能会发现 So what you might find is,
举个例子 for example.
当你作为一个零售交易员进入外汇市场时 When you go into the forex market as a retail trader is not,
每个人都定义了四个组 everybody defines four groups,
货币在某些方面 currencies in certain ways.
这在专业交易员的工作方式上是完全错误的 It's actually completely wrong at the way professional traders do it.
他们是按机会来分组货币吗 Is they group currencies in terms of opportunity?
机会来自于波动性 An opportunity comes from volatility.
言归正传 So without further ado,
让我们开始吧 let's get started.
让我们看一下第一段视频 Let's go over to video number one.
我们将研究委员会的定义 并开始建立这个基础 We'll look at the definitions of committees and start to build out this foundation.
一旦我们建立了这个基础 Once we build this foundation,
然后你就会对所有的基础知识有一个正确的理解在它的市场之前 then you'll have a proper understanding of all the basics are before its market,
因此 therefore,
你就可以转到更复杂的 you'll be able to move on to the more complex,
系统的过程 systematic processes.
我将在电脑屏幕上看到你 So I'll see you on the computer screen,
我也会看到你 and I'll also see you.
在这个视频的最后 At the end of this video.
对非洲来说 For Africa.
好的 Okay,
欢迎来到电脑屏幕前我们要做的第一件事 so welcome to the computer screen at the first thing we're going to do.
我们来看看Pmtm课程的整体结构 We're going to take a look at the overall structure of the P mtm course itself.
这只是为了让你们知道我们从哪里开始 我们要怎么做 This is just to give you an idea of where we're beginning and where we're going with this.
让我们把演示最大化到屏幕上 And so let's maximize the presentation onto the screen.
然后呢 And?
真的 Really,
当我们经历这个的时候你会发现什么 the PR t m what you're going to find as we go through this.
这个视频系列真的是宏观经济学和国际贸易的重要一课吗 Is the video series is really a major lesson in macroeconomics and international trade?
尽管这是交易和投资组合管理的一个教训 As much as it is a lesson in trading and portfolio management,
这是由于他们的专业交易员 and this is really due to their professional trader,
为了获得货币地位 我们要经历的系统过程 systematic processes that we're going to go through in order to obtain currency positions.
我们将会发现 实际上 And what we're going to find is that actually,
专业的方法在很大程度上是由基本面驱动的 the professional approach is very much in the majority driven by fundamentals.
所以这个分裂大概是说80%的基本和20%的典型 So the split really is roughly speaking about eighty per cent fundamental and twenty percent typical.
我们将会看到的这些基本情况是我们所说的 在宏观经济和国际贸易中 驱动因素的基本驱动力 产生了四个美国高质量的贸易理念 And those fundamental situations that we're going to be looking at really are what we call drivers so fundamental drivers in macroeconomics and international trade that generate four US high quality trading ideas.
然后我们用少数人的技术来覆盖基础分析 And then we're using technicals in the minority to overlay of fundamental analysis.
如果你走进一家投资银行的交易大厅 或者走进一家对冲基金 情况就非常严重了 And it's very much the case that if you walk into an investment bank trading floor or walk into a hedge fund.
你会发现这种分裂是存在的 That you'll find roughly that this split exists.
在外汇市场上 专业交易员所做的80%的交易都是由宏观经济基本面因素驱动的 而真正的人告诉你这不是 that eighty percent of everything professional traders do in the currency markets is driven by macroeconomic fundamentals and really anybody that tells you that this is not.
这个案子很可能和你的目标有利益冲突 The case is like and probably has a conflict of interest with your own objectives,
也就是真正学会如何用你自己的钱来赚钱 which is to really learn how to use your own money to make consistent money.
在你的一生中 Over your lifetime,
从外汇市场 from the currency markets.
基本原理 Fundamentals,
宏观基础 macro fundamentals,
开车 drive.
对于专业交易员来说 货币交易的概念产生和其他任何资产类别一样 Idea generation in currency trading as much as any other asset class for professional traders,
如果不是这样的话 if not more so.
现在 Now.
我们要经历的过程 我们要经历的过程实际上是被固定在思想的产生上 The process that we're going to go through the systematic process really is anchored to idea generation.
这是由所有事情驱动的 That's driven by all things,
宏观基础 macro fundamental,
正如我们已经指出的 as we've already pointed out,
然后是我们所说的养蜂过程 and but it's then followed by what we call a beekeeping process,
它包括生成高质量的观察列表 which consists of generating high quality watch lists.
我是高质量的贸易理念 能产生高质量的观察名单 I e high quality trade ideas that generate high quality watch list.
然后再加上技术和价格行动指标 And then overlaid with technical and price action indicators,
我们用自己的资本来做一些愚蠢的事情 这就是我们用来计时和阻止我们做蠢事的本质 the gate keeping process is essentially what we use for timing and stopping us doing stupid things with our own capital.
创意产生 So idea generation.
在大多数人的驱动下 In the majority fundamentally driven then,
接下来是一个过程 我们用自己的资本和大门来阻止自己做一些愚蠢的事情 followed by a process by which we stop ourselves doing silly things with our own capital and the gate.
保持由手表组成的过程 keeping process consisting of watch,
列表 list,
技术和价格的作用叠加 technical and price action overlays.
一般来说 门的维护过程是这样的 The gate keeping process is generally speaking,
时间机制 a timing mechanism,
因此 基本面因素紧随其后 so fundamentals followed by timing.
然后我们有专业的交易员风险管理和自我意识统计 Then we have professional trader risk management and self awareness statistics.
现在 Now,
如果你听说过交易策略 if you've ever heard of the trading strategy,
全球宏观或听说过 global macro or heard of,
例如 for example,
全球宏观对冲基金经理 global macro hedge fund managers,
这就是这门课要教给你们的 this is what the course is going to teach you.
它将教会你这种方法 以及如何在你的零售交易账户中实现这种方法 It's gonna teach you exactly this approach and exactly how to implement the approach in your retail trading accounts.
当你走进一家投资银行 Whenever you walk into an investment bank,
交易大厅或对冲基金的流动 a trading floor or a hedge fund flow.
投资银行的自营交易员和对冲基金经理 The proprietary traders at investment banks and the hedge fund managers.
如果他们的职责是全球宏观 If their remit is global macro,
这就是他们所采用的方法 then this is exactly the approach that they take so overall,
这门课的基本驱动力是80% the course is eighty per cent fundamentally driven.
20%的技术 我们通过几个步骤来获得真正的钱 twenty per cent technical and we go through several steps in order to take real positions with real money,
这是宏观的 That being macro,
从根本上推动了创意的产生 fundamentally driven idea generation.
一个守门的过程 A goalkeeping process.
风险管理过程和自我意识 A risk management process and self awareness.
所以 So.
让我们开始整个过程 让我们在这里列出真正的目标 Let's start the whole process and let's lay out the real objective here.
这里的真正目标是为散户外汇交易员提供一种新设备 这种新设备可以用一种系统的方式预测未来的汇率走势 就像专业交易员和对冲基金经理那样 The real objective here is to provide retail forex traders said a new device with a systematic approach to predicting future currency moves in the same way that professional traders and hedge fund managers to do so.
所以你可以完全采用同样的方法 并从中获得一致的资金 So you can implement exactly the same approach and make consistent money from it.
在你的信上 Over your letter.
现在系统的方法从创意产生开始 Now the systematic approach starts with idea generation,
但在零售贸易商环境中 人们的理解和知识存在巨大的缺口 but there is actually a huge shortfall in understanding and knowledge in the retail trader environment.
相对于外汇市场本身的专业交易环境 Versus the professional trading environment in currency markets themselves.
我们首先要做的是把这个间隙代入 And what we have to do first is actually plug that gap.
我们需要基本了解货币市场的特性 We need to basically understand the idiosyncrasies of the currency market,
因此 我们对货币市场的意义有一个基本的了解和基础 so we have a fundamental understanding and foundation of what currency markets are all about.
没有两种资产类别是完全相同的 And no two asset classes are exactly the same.
货币市场与股票市场有不同的特质和细节 Currency markets have different idiosyncrasies and details to them that differ from stock markets,
商品市场和债券市场 commodity markets and bond markets.
但我们只需要学习 But we just have to learn.
我们必须学习这些东西 We have to learn these things,
所以我们有了建立的基础 so we have the foundation in order to build.
一个真实的 A real,
在此之上的系统过程 systematic process on top of that,
一旦我们理解了所有这些东西 我们就能做到 once we understand all of this stuff we can.
然后我们就可以继续建立一个系统的过程 We can really then move on to building a systematic process.
否则 Otherwise,
如果我们没有这个基础 if we don't have this foundation,
我们可能会发现自己在与这些特质作斗争 we could find ourselves struggling with these idiosyncrasies.
当我们建立一个系统的过程之后 when we build out a systematic process and later on.
所以我们要做的就是把所有的这些都做完 确保每个人都能通过这个视频系列 So what we have to do is get all of this out of the way and make sure that everyone going through the video series.
作为零售交易者 他们对外汇市场的特性有了这个基础和了解 As retail traders get this foundation and understanding of the idiosyncrasies of forex markets.
所以我们要做的是在以下领域建立一个基础 So what we have to do is get a foundation in the following areas.
在视频1中 in video one.
我们将会看到第一个外汇市场基础区域 we're going to look at the first forex market foundation area,
这是一个机会集 and this is the opportunity set.
什么是机会集 What is the opportunity set?
嗯 Well?
所有的交易者 All traders,
不管是在货币上 whether it's in the currency,
市场 markets,
股票市场 stock markets,
商品在市场上 commodity upon markets,
所有的交易者都是波动的奴隶 all traders are really slaves to volatility.
我们要做的就是定义我们的机会是什么 不能做什么 and what we had to do is define what our opportunities can and can't be.
因此 我们将进入货币市场 看看世界上大多数的主要和次要货币 并真正定义我们如何正确看待这些机会 So we're going to go into the currency markets and look at most of the major and minor currency passed across the world and actually define how we'd look at the opportunities properly.
我们要做的第二件事 The second thing we're going to do.
第二个视频是关于四个X市场机制的 Ain't video number two is a look at four X market regimes.
不同货币有不同的制度 There's different regimes across different currencies,
我们必须定义它们 才能真正理解它们 and we have to actually define these are really understand them.
这实际上帮助了我们 并在定义我们的机会时非常有用 This actually helps us and ties in very usefully with defining our opportunity said so.
我们必须了解外汇市场机制的不同之处 We have to understand the differences between forex market regimes.
我们要关注的第三件事是外汇市场基础设施 The third thing we have to look at is forex market infrastructure.
在基础设施方面 In terms of infrastructure,
我们需要了解的是我们在外汇市场内部处理的参数 what we have to understand is our parameters that we're dealing with within the forex market itself.
那么外汇市场的参与者是谁呢 So who are the players in the forex market?
我们如何在外汇市场上交易 How do we actually deal in the forex market?
从根本上说 What is fundamentally driven,
什么是推测 what is speculative?
我们必须了解我们要处理的参数以及这些参数的局限性 We have to understand the parameters that we're dealing with and the limitations of those parameters,
如果我们学习这些东西 and if we learn this stuff,
我们可以学习 we can learn,
因此 不要做傻事 然后成功地在这些参数中运行 并且可能在一生中包含金钱 therefore not to do silly things and then operate within these parameters successfully and may consist of money over a lifetime.
在视频中 在我们开始讲一些基本的计算方法之前 In video and before we're going to move on to some basic computational methods,
所以有很多算法 so there's a lot of arithmetic.
总的来说很有趣 Generally intriguing.
但在货币市场 But in the currency markets,
有一些特定的算法需要我们来处理 there's specific arithmetic that we have to get a handle on.
我们必须知道如何去做这些事情 We have to understand how to do those things,
所以他们只是作为第二天性来找我们 and so they just come to us as second nature.
所以当我们开始建立系统的过程时 So when we start building out systematic processes,
我们可以看一些东西 然后把它算出来 we can look at something and work it out very,
很快就能理解数字背后的情况 very quickly and understand what's happening behind the numbers.
所以我们要看一些基本的计算方法一旦我们理解了 So we're going to look at some basic computational methods that once we understand,
应该永远在你的心里 你应该能够很快地做出反应 非常简单 should be in your psyche for forever and you should be able to react very quickly to very simple,
直 straight,
线性数学和其他的东西在你的余生中很快就会发生 linear mathematics and what things out very quickly for the rest of your life.
然后我们继续讨论这个问题 So then we move on to that.
他有五六个 He had five and six,
然后进入更高级的计算方法 which is then moving onto more advanced computational methods,
ChristopherCoyle and Christopher Coyle,
谁是研究所的统计分析师 who's the institute's statistics analyst,
将会带你通过一些非常先进的计算方法 并在观察和理解波动性方面对你进行培训 is going to take you through some pretty advanced computational methods and train you on Excel in terms of looking and understanding volatility.
因此 我们将关注并理解如何从波动中寻找潜在的贸易理念 So we'll be looking at and understanding how to look and get a potential trade ideas from volatility.
因此 我们将通过评估外汇市场的波动来考察机会和风险 so we'll be looking at opportunity and risk by assessing volatility in the forex market,
理解这一点是非常重要的 and it's very important to understand that overall.
作为交易者 我们要做的就是寻找不稳定的机会 what we're trying to do here as traders is always seek out volatile opportunities,
很明显 and obviously,
机会给他们带来了某种风险 opportunities bring with them some sort of risk.
作为交易者 And as traders,
我们需要拥抱风险 因为没有风险就没有机会 we need to embrace risk because you can't have opportunity without risk.
还有 and.
作为一名职业交易员 As a professional trader,
你需要做什么 what you need to be doing.
他的工作是最系统和最基本的过程 His working out the most systematic and basic processes.
为了理解如何捕捉这种波动 To understand how to capture that volatility,
所以晶体会带你经历所有这些 so crystal is going to take you through all of that,
一旦你达到了速度 你就会明白这些东西 and things do get pretty advanced book once you're up to speed and you understand that stuff,
它会感激你因为在你的余生中 it's going to be grateful you because over the rest of your life,
您将能够下载数据 you'll be able to download data.
通过这些过程 能够非常迅速地了解这些机会或风险 And go through these processes and be able to very very quickly understand whether those opportunities or risk,
或者两者都有可能 or both potentially,
并且能够评估是否有能力拥有能够支付给你的职位 and be able to assess whether that there's the ability to have positions that are going to pay you so.
让我们用第一个视频来解决这个问题 Let's kick it all off with video number one,
一旦我们看了前六个视频 and once we go through the first six videos,
然后我们可以继续前进 因为我们会得到这个基础 then we can actually move on because we will have got this foundation.
然后我们可以继续建立系统的过程我们从创意产生开始 Then we can actually move on to building out systematic processes which we start on idea generation,
然后移到门上 then moving onto gate keeping,
然后退出风险管理和自我意识统计 then moving out of risk management and self awareness statistics.
所以我们要做的第一件事就是建立这个基础 So the first thing we do is build this foundation.
一旦你的基础牢固 Once your foundation is strong,
然后我们会进入系统的过程 then we'll move onto the systematic process.
让我们从第一个视频开始 So let's start with video number one.
机会集 The opportunity set.
好的 Okay,
因此 让我们开始构建我们对外汇市场基础的理解 so let's get started with building out our understanding of the underpinnings of the forex market.
让我们试着建立一个坚实的基础和对货币市场的理解 And let's try to establish a really solid foundation and understanding of the currency markets.
所以我们要做的第一件事 So the first thing we're going to do.
看一看 Have a look at here.
我们将试着了解外汇市场的基本情况以及你将会发现什么 We're going to try to understand what the forex markets are all about in their basics and what you're going to find.
在外汇市场中有很多我们称之为噪音的东西 Is that there's a lot of what we call noise in the forex market,
比其他任何资产类别都要多 more so than probably any other asset class.
我们说的噪音是什么意思 What do we mean by the noise?
嗯 Well,
我们的意思是 what we mean.
基本上是参与者 is basically the participants,
因此 在外汇市场内的公司和个人对你自己的目标有内在的利益冲突 so companies and people within the forex market that have inherent conflicts of interest to your own objective,
也就是用你自己的钱来赚钱 which is to make money using your own money.
然后呢 And?
这些参与者使噪音持续存在 These participants that perpetuate the noise really.
他们把你的注意力从你的目标上转移开 以便让自己得到报酬 They divert your attention away from your objective in order to get themselves paid.
你会发现外汇市场上有很多经纪人和教育家 And what you're going to find is a lot of brokers and educators in the forex market.
外汇市场与其他资产类别没有什么不同 There are no different in the forex market than any other asset class,
事实上 in fact,
甚至可能比其他资产类别更糟糕 there probably even worse than in other asset classes.
一旦你开始真正了解他们的目标是什么以及他们对你自己的目标是违反直觉的你就会开始了解外汇市场零售交易的真正基础是什么你将能够通过这些噪音和这些板块的固有的利益冲突来消除这些噪音 And once you start really understanding what their objectives are and how they're counterintuitive to your own objectives and you'll go to begin to understand what the true underpinnings of the retail trade of forex markets actually are and you'll be able to cut through all of this noise and the BS perpetuated by these plates with their inherent conflicts of interest,
我们所说的利益冲突指的是那些在数量上获得报酬的人和公司 what do we mean by the conflict of interest for what we mean is actually the people and companies that get paid on a volume basis,
所以他们会根据某一特定市场的特征量来支付佣金 so they get paid a commission based on the amount of volume that of traits in a particular market.
所以一旦你理解了这种利益冲突是如何违背你所有的目标的 So once you understand how this conflict of interest is against all of your own objectives,
你将会理解并了解市场中什么是真实的 什么是假的 you're going to understand and know the difference between what is probably true and what is false in the markets,
这将会帮助你避免所有的零售外汇交易错误 and that's gonna really help you to avoid all of the retail forex trading mistakes,
它会阻止你赔钱所以成为我们所说的九九的一部分 and it's going to stop you losing money so becoming part of what we call the nine nine,
九 nine,
九九在外汇市场 nine nine in the forex markets,
这是90%的零售 which is ninety percent of retail.
外汇交易员在90天内损失了90%的资金 Forex traders lose ninety per cent of their money within ninety days.
它将会保护你的舞蹈艺术一千零九 九百九十的现象是我们在研究所经常讨论的 And it's going to protect your dance art and the one thousand nine thousand nine hundred ninety phenomenon is something that we talked about a lot in the institute.
绝大多数的零售外汇交易员在很短的时间内都损失了大部分或全部的钱 The vast majority of retail forex traders actually lose most or all of their money in a very short space of time.
绝对100%是真的 and it's absolutely one hundred percent true,
我们在研究所看到了大量的统计数据我们已经看到了零售外汇市场上外汇市场上二十八万个交易账户在所有的零售经纪瓶中 and we have a lot of statistics in the institute that we look at and we've seen the two hundred and eighty thousand trading accounts in the forex market in the retail forex market across all the retail brokerage bottles.
90%的账户 And ninety percent of these accounts,
加上超过90%或者已经完成了 plus over ninety percent or actually done,
他们几乎整晚都在失去 they lose pretty much all of their night.
在很短的时间内 In a very short space of time.
一旦你开始理解为什么会帮助你保护你的缺点的原因呢 And what once you start understanding the reasons why this is going to help you protect your downside?
其中一个原因是有很多噪音 One of the reasons is that there's a lot of noise.
然后呢 And?
作为职业交易员 As professional traders.
我们一直在做的是在任何我们寻求的市场和波动中寻找 What we try to do all the time is to seek out in any market we seek out and volatility,
一旦我们开始研究外汇市场是如何组织的 and once we start actually looking at how the forex market is organised.
因此 一旦我们开始研究我们如何组织世界货币市场与利益冲突的参与者如何组织世界货币市场 So once we start looking at how we organize the world's currency markets versus how the participants with conflict of interest actually organized the world's currency markets,
我们开始看到这些 we start to see that these,
这些组织和货币的定义实际上是不同的 these this organization and the definitions of currencies are actually different.
我们自己的 To our own.
然后呢 And?
我们首先要注意的是 The first thing we look out,
举个例子 for example.
经纪人和投资银行是如何定义货币的 Is how brokers and investment banks actually define currencies,
因为我们想要做的是开始组织一场专业的交易 真正专注于波动性 because what we want to do is start organizing in a professional trade away and really focus on volatility.
当我们看到当我们看着路的时候 And when we see when we look at the way,
大众媒体 the popular media,
所以这是所有噪音的出口 so this is the outlet for all the noise.
所以我们说的是电视 so we're talking about television,
报纸和网络媒体 newspapers and online media.
当我们看出口的方式时 When we look at the way the outlet,
媒体组织和组织货币的定义 the media organize and structure the definitions of currencies,
我们意识到它们与波动分析非常不同 we realize that they're very different to a volatility analysis.
所以 So.
你可能会想 You might think here,
例如 for example,
为什么我们要看投资银行的定义 why are we looking at investment bank definitions?
投资银行将会有真正的机构经纪人 While investment banks will have really institutional brokers,
他们与对冲基金和养老基金有业务往来 they do business with hedge funds and pension funds,
主要在二级市场和外汇市场上 mainly on the secondary market side and in the forex markets.
他们的客户是对冲基金和养老基金 Their clients are the hedge funds and pension funds,
通过投资银行交易货币 支付差价或佣金 trade currencies via the investment bank and pay a spread or commission.
他们支付了他们所涉足的所有货币对的差价 They paid the spread on all of the currency pairs that they tread.
而投资银行仅仅是零售经纪人的制度方面 And investment banks are simply just the institutional side of retail brokers,
本质上 so essentially,
他们只是机构经纪人 然后是市场庄家 they're just institutional brokers there then market makers they also do.
你有自营交易业务 而真正令人惊讶的是 投资银行的自营交易业务也会采取与我们相同的方式 you have proprietary trading operations and what's actually quite surprising is that the proprietary trading operations in investment banks would take the same approach that we take,
这与投资银行的市场制造部门在定义货币和货币被定义为投资银行和零售经纪人时所采用的方法不同 which is different to the approach that the market making side of the investment bank would take in defining currencies and the way currencies are all defined as investment banks and retail brokers.
这些人对货币的定义方式与专业交易员的目标是非常违反直觉的 And the way these the way these guys define currencies is very much counterintuitive to a professional trader objective,
也就是用我们自己的钱来赚钱 which is to make money using our own money.
所以你会发现 So what you're going to find.
投资银行的零售经纪人和媒体 Where the investment bank's retail brokers and media.
这些货币将会非常依赖于货币的规模 Is that currencies will be grouped very much dependent on the size of the currency.
我们所说的货币的规模是什么意思 What do we mean by the size of the currency,
每天交易的数量 the amount of volume that trades per day,
最受欢迎的货币是什么 the most popular currencies?
所以你要看到的第一个定义是G10 So the first definition you're going to see is the G Ten,
这是一组十种货币 我们在这里得到了什么 the Group of Ten Currencies and what we've got here.
是对细节的经典定义 Is the classic definition of detail,
这是u which is the U.
美元 S dollar,
欧元 euro,
日元 Japanese yen.
英国镑瑞士法郎 The British pound Swiss franc,
澳元和新西兰元 Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar,
加拿大元 Canadian dollars,
瑞典克朗和挪威克朗 Swedish Kronor and Norwegian krone.
你会注意到 我们有字母C 在我们的四种货币中 And you're going to notice here that we've got the letter C next to four of our currencies.
那么这封信呢 So the letter?
C C,
例如 for example,
他的下两个澳元和字母C实际上代表的是大宗商品 his next two Australian dollar and the letter C actually stands for commodities.
我们把它们标记在它们旁边的原因是因为 The reason why we've marked these up with a letter seen next to them is because.
我们的目标是找出最具潜在的波动性 什么是最不可能的波动 Our objective is to figure out what has the most potential volatility what has the least potential volatility?
我们想知道这些商品是什么 And we want to know what these commodity,
但这些都是实际的货币价值 but these are currency values actually depend on.
我们已经做了标记 So what we've done is we've marked here.
货币在欺骗中 The currency's within the cheating.
我们用C来标记它们因为它们的货币的价值是依赖的或者是非常依赖的 We've marked them with a C because there the value of their currency is dependent or very heavily dependent on.
国际商品的价格 The price of international commodities,
只需要一到两种商品 so just one or two particular commodities.
这些不同 And these differ,
例如 for example,
从美元 from the U S dollar,
欧元 euro,
日元 yen,
磅瑞士法郎瑞典克朗 Pound Swiss franc Swedish Kronor.
它们稍有不同 因为 They differ slightly because.
其他货币并不仅仅依赖于一种或两种商品 The other currencies dont depend solely on one or two commodities,
因此 他们的货币的价格并不是很大程度上取决于他们出口的一到两种商品的价格 so the prices of their currencies don't depend heavily on the price of one or two of their exports.
然后呢 And?
更大的货币 The bigger currencies,
美元 the US dollar euro,
日元 Japanese yen,
英镑 pound Swiss franc,
瑞典克朗 Swedish krona.
这些货币不依赖于一种或两种商品 These currencies that don't depend on the one or two commodities.
这些货币在出口上更加多样化 Those currencies are more diverse in their exports.
当你思考这个问题的时候 And when you think about this,
如果 if?
货币价值很大程度上依赖于一到两种商品 而另一种商品的出口则非常多样化 A currency value is heavily dependent on one or two commodities relative to another that is very diverse in its exports.
很明显 更有可能的是 商品货币的波动性可能会更大 It's pretty obvious that it's more likely that the commodity currency is going to be potentially more volatile,
因为它只取决于一个或两个因素 而不是众多的因素 because it depends on just one or two factors rather than a multitude of factors.
所以我们用c来买这些 So we bought these up with a C.
首先 To begin with,
投资银行将会分组 investment banks will group.
所有的货币都是基因 All currencies together as gene,
我们会告诉经纪人 so will we tell brokers,
这基本上就是把你的注意力从真正重要的事情上转移开 and that's basically to divert your attention away from what really matters,
这就是波动性 which is volatility.
他们试图把他们都归类为一个篮子 They're trying to group them all as one basket.
仅依赖于外汇市场上每天发生的交易的规模 Dependent just solely on the size of the transactions that occur every day in the forex markets.
另一个定义 The other definition.
我们关注的是投资银行 That we look at with investment banks,
零售经纪人是一种新兴的货币 retail brokers is an inn is an emerging currencies,
因此 我们说的是一个国家的经济规模很小 而且在高水平的战争中成长的国家应该以高利率和被定义为新兴货币的速度增长 so we're talking about a country's here that whose economies are small and growing at a high rate of war should be growing at high rates and their defined as emerging currencies.
新兴货币 Emerging currencies,
通常在投资银行的定义中 typically within investment bank definitions,
零售代理定义被分割成N Retail broker definitions are split up into N,
所以欧洲 so Europe,
中东和非洲是一个海湾 Middle East and Africa a Gulf,
海湾合作委员会 so Gulf Cooperation Council,
GCC和下一页 GCC and also on the next page,
亚洲 Asia.
你在这里看到的是 我们又用字母标记了一堆这些货币 And what you see here is that we've marked up again a bunch of these currencies with a letter?
因为他们很大程度上依赖于一到两种商品价格 C because they are dependent very heavily on just one or two commodity prices.
所以 so.
他们的货币价值很大程度上取决于一两个商品 The value of their currency depends very heavily on one or two commodities,
因为这是他们出口的很大一部分在这里 because it's a very big proportion of their exports and over here,
在右手边 on the right hand,
侧面 side.
我们已经到了海湾国家委员会和海湾国家委员会的货币 We've got to the GCC and with the GCC currencies,
所有的中东货币 all the Middle East currencies.
你可以看到它们都依赖于一到两种商品 You can see that they are all dependent on one or two commodities,
你也可以看到我们用一块来标记它们 and you can also see we've marked them up with a piece.
这幅作品代表了契约 The piece stands for pact,
这是一个外汇制度我们将更密切地关注第2个视频中的4个前政权 and this is a forex regime we're going to look more closely at four ex regimes in video number two.
但现在我们只需要知道有两种主要的外汇制度 But for now we just need to know that there's two main forex regimes.
第一个是一个浮动的机制 一个国家的货币可以自由浮动 与世界上所有其他货币自由浮动 The first one is a floating regime where a country's currency has the ability to float freely against all other currencies in the world.
第二个主要原因是一种固定的或固定的汇率制度 即一种货币的价值是固定的 或者与另一种货币的价值挂钩或与一篮子其他货币挂钩 And the second main reason is a fixed or pegged regime where the value of a currency is fixed or pegged to the value of another or to a basket of other currencies.
通常 Usually,
这个篮子是由中国出口市场的主要贸易伙伴组成的 the basket is made up of the main trading partners of the country's export market.
所以 so.
我们应该直观地知道 在中东 We should know intuitively that in the Middle East,
我们要看的商品是石油价格 the commodity we are going to be looking at is the oil price,
所以 so.
中东的石油出口 Oil exports of the Middle East,
但我们也必须意识到 我们所有的中东货币都是以某种方式支付给另一种货币或一篮子贸易伙伴的货币 but we also have to be aware that all of our Middle Eastern currencies are in some way paid to another currency or a basket of currencies of their trading partners.
再一次 Again,
我们之所以这么做 是因为我们知道 作为专业的交易员 不管一个国家有多大 we're doing this because we know as professional traders that it doesn't matter how big a country is,
一种货币有多大 how big a currency is.
真的 It's really.
真正重要的是资产本身的波动性 What matters is really the volatility of the asset itself.
所以当我们进入亚洲的时候 So when we move into Asia.
我们看到亚洲的新兴货币有一个很大的列表他们中的很多人都依赖于商品 We see that we have a large list again of emerging currencies in Asia and a whole bunch of them have got dependency on commodities,
我们也有一些 and we also have a few of them.
所以人民币 So the Chinese yuan,
港币和新加坡元 the Hong Kong dollar and the Singapore dollar.
这些货币是挂钩的 These currencies are pegged.
类似于GCC的区域 regions similar to GCC,
而派克政权必须有不同的细微差别 and peck regimes have to have different nuances.
我们将在第二段视频中更详细地讨论这些问题 We're going to look at those in more detail in video number two.
当我们进入新兴市场时 When we go into emerging currencies.
在拉丁美洲 In Latin America,
我们可以看到这都是拉丁文 we can see that's all Latin.
美国货币对商品有某种依赖 American currencies have some sort of dependency on commodities.
我们还注意到 在我们的信旁边没有和平 And what we also noticed is that there is no peace here next to our letter.
停止 cease,
所以他们对商品的依赖 so their commodity dependence,
但他们没有报酬 but they're not paid.
它们实际上是浮动的 they're actually floating.
所以当你看这个列表的时候 So when you go through the list here.
你将会看到任何没有P的东西实际上都是一个浮动的系统 You'll be able to see that anything that doesn't have a P is actually a floating regime.
任何有P的东西都是漆面 And anything that does have a P is a paint regime.
现在 Now.
作为专业的交易员 我们已经提到或简要地浏览了一下 As professional traders we've mentioned or briefly skimmed over this,
作为职业交易员 that as professional traders,
对我们来说真正重要的是波动性 what really matters to us is volatility.
所以当我们定义的时候 So when we define.
货币 currencies,
我们并不在乎一个国家是否在10国集团中 we don't really care that a country is in the G ten or not.
为什么我们要做交易员 Why would we care as traders,
我们在寻找他的波动性 what we're seeking out his volatility?
所以我想让你们想象 So I want you to imagine,
例如 for example,
一个时间范围 a time horizon,
时间范围可以是任何一天的任何时间 and the time horizon can be any day any time horizon at all,
所以可能有一天 so it can be one day.
一个星期 One week.
一个月 One month,
一年三个月 three months one year.
我想让你们想象一下它可以是什么资产 And I want you to imagine just any asset it can be.
货币 Currencies,
股票 stocks,
大宗商品债券 commodities bonds.
它也可以是金砖四国 It can also be BRICS.
所以砖块被用来建造房屋 So bricks are used to build houses.
砖块在公开市场上有价格 制造商和批发商 Bricks have a price on the open market and manufacturers and wholesalers,
分销商 distributors,
开发人员 developers,
他们在公开市场上买卖砖头 they buy and sell bricks in the open market.
他们把细胞砖彼此绑在一起 they bind cell bricks with each other.
金砖四国是价格 BRICS are the price,
像其他资产一样 like any other asset,
每一种资产都有一个市场 在任何给定的时间范围内 and every asset has a marketplace and over any given time horizon,
对于交易这些资产的人来说 真正重要的是资产的波动性 what really matters for the people trading these assets is the volatility of the assets.
如果我们选择某一天 And if we just pick one day,
例如 for example,
作为我们的时间范围 as our time horizon.
我们选择一种货币 And we pick a currency.
我们选一个随机的货币对 So let's pick a random currency pair.
例如 For example,
像欧元一样 like the euro,
美元 US dollar.
然后说 And say,
好的 OK,
过了一天 over one day.
我们打算买卖这种货币 we're going to buy and sell this currency,
1欧元兑1美元 the euro dollar over one day.
我们要对它进行十次治疗 We're going to treat it ten times.
回答 Answer.
我们来看看欧洲美元的日波动和我们假设的 We're going to look at the daily volatility of Eurodollar and what we've let's say.
我们发现 在二十四小时内 欧元汇率是不动的 We find that the Eurodollar over twenty four hour period just doesn't move.
嗯 Well,
这意味着 当我们买卖它的时候 it means that when we buy and sell it,
我们在同一个地方买和卖 we're buying and selling it at the same place.
如果它不动 if it doesn't move.
如果我们付钱给经纪人 And if we're paying a broker,
一个委员会 a commission.
我们每一次交易都是如此 Every time we trade so as spread.
这可能是一个很小的传播 And it can be a very small spread.
这并不重要 it doesn't really matter,
但如果低劣 but if inferior,
价格是一样的 the price is the same.
八岁以上 Over eight,
二十 twenty,
四个小时 four hour period.
我们以十倍的价格买进卖出 然后进行粘贴 And we buy and sell at ten times and paste to do so.
这意味着我们不会赚到钱 It means that we're not going to make any money.
事实上 In fact,
我们会亏钱的 we're just going to lose money.
然而 However,
如果我们确实有波动而不是机遇 那么风险就会被创造出来 if we do have volatility than an opportunity and risk is created.
作为职业交易员 As professional traders,
这就是我们所关心的 that's what we care about,
我们不关心细节上的东西 we don't care that something's in the detail.
我们不关心它在拉丁美洲 We don't care that it's in Latin America.
我们关心的是货币的政体 以及货币的依赖 What we care about is what the currency's regime is and what the currency is dependent on,
这是波动性的驱动因素 and this is a driver for volatility.
因此 与其根据地理和交易规模来组织和分割货币 So instead of organizing and segmenting currencies by cheap by geography and transaction sizes,
我们通过潜在的机会和我们在第一步中所做的方式来组织货币 we organized currencies by the potential opportunity and the way we do this in the first step,
在接下来的视频中我们还会讲到更多的步骤 and there are further steps that we go through later in the video series.
但是我们在第一步中做这个的方法是分成四个主要类别 即X商品 But the way we do this in the first step is to segment into four main categories which are X commodity,
浮点X floating X,
商品挂钩 commodity pegged,
商品 commodity,
浮动和商品包装 floating and commodity packed.
因此 我们所做的是 通过货币机制和商品风险来进行过滤 So what we're doing is it's worth filtering here by currency regime and commodity exposure.
所以X商品 So the X Commodity.
在这里分组或者不依赖于一个的货币 Grouping here or currencies that are not dependent on one.
或者是两种商品的出口 然后分割成浮动和页面评级 Or two commodities in their exports and the split up into floating and page ratings.
然后是商品的浮动影响 Then we have the commodity floating impact,
这些国家是由他们对一 两种商品的依赖或通过他们的政权来分割或过滤的 which are countries that are split up by or filtered by their dependency on one or two commodities and then by their regime.
如果你进入视频系列的下载部分 And if you go into the download section of the video series,
在第一个视频中 so under video number one,
你会看到一个下载按钮 you'll see a download button,
你可以下载电子表格 把所有的东西都分割给你 you'll be able to download the spreadsheet which segments everything for you.
然后呢 And?
如果你下载了这个电子表格 Don't let if you download this spreadsheet,
看一看 have a look through it.
让自己熟悉一下 Just familiarize yourself with it.
因为我们开始熟悉这些定义是很重要的因为我们在以后的视频系列中建立了这些定义 Because it's important to start getting familiar with these definitions because we build on these things later in the video series and.
外汇市场是有组织的 The forex markets organized sheet.
我们的报告中有详细的内容 We have the we have the breakdown in the presentation,
所以如果你只是下载它 你可以在自己的时间里熟悉它 so if you just download it and you can familiarize yourself with it in your own time and.
回到这一点 So back to this point,
更重要的是 我们需要开始寻找和理解我们如何获取和分割实用程序 而不是根据地理位置和交易规模进行细分 what's more important is that we need to start looking and understanding how we capture and segment for utility rather than segmenting by geography and the size of transactions.
浮动和付费的制度和商品依赖是我们的主要方式 Floating and paid regimes and commodity dependency is the main way we do it.
你要开始思考的是国家如何 And what you've got to start thinking about is how countries,
他们的货币价值 the value of their currency,
一个国家的货币价值如何取决于外部因素 how a country's value of currency depends on factors outside.
这个国家本身 The country itself.
所以我们这里用的是外生因素 So the phrase we use here is exogenous factors.
所以外生因素 So exogenous factors,
所有影响货币价值的因素 all factors that affect the value of a currency,
但他们不受中央政府的控制 but they are outside the control of central authorities within the country.
所以 So,
例如 for example,
如果你是一个非常依赖世界另一端的贸易伙伴的国家 if you're a country that depends very heavily on one trading partner on the other side of the world.
但这个贸易伙伴在他们的经济中遇到了困难 But that trading partner has a difficult time in their economy.
这将会对你的货币产生影响 That is going to have an effect on your currency as a country,
不管你喜不喜欢 whether you like it or not,
它是影响你货币价值的外生或外生因素 it's an exogenous or exogenous factor that is affecting the value of your currency.
这是你无法控制的 It's out of your control.
这些对专业交易员来说非常重要 Now these are very important to professional traders,
因为这是波动的驱动因素之一 because this is one of the drivers of volatility,
这就是为什么这个线段 and that's why the segment.
通过商品和制度 By commodity and by regime.
我将从外汇市场组织的表格中得出结论 I would put the results here of our breakdown from the forex markets organized sheet,
我们首先看到的是前商品浮动货币 and the first thing we look at is the ex commodity floating currencies.
我们发现 如果我们分解 And what we find is if we break down.
节日 Festival.
通过发达的浮动 By developed float,
这是什么意思呢 So what do we mean?
是这样吗 By that?
我们指的是发达经济体有浮动的制度不依赖于商品我们有N个浮动货币 即X商品 We mean developed economies that have floating regimes that are not dependent on commodities than we have the N floating currencies that are X commodity,
亚太地区 the Asia Pacific.
浮点 Floating dot,
我们的X商品 our X commodity,
而后者 and the latter,
你可以看到 and you can see,
没有拉丁美洲 there's no Latin America.
下一个定义是前商品挂钩制度 The next definition is the ex commodity pegged regimes,
所以我们有 so we have the.
我们这里有丹麦 We have Denmark in here.
丹麦打败了印度豹 Denmark's knocking the cheetah.
但它是一个发达国家 是许多欧洲国家的重要贸易伙伴 But it's a developed nation and is an important trading partner of many European nations,
我们已经在分析中加入了 so we've included in the analysis,
所以开发的X商品支付了丹麦克朗 so developed X commodity paid the Danish krone,
这是与欧洲的联系 which is pegged to the Europe.
我们也有亚洲商品 We also have Asia ex commodity pate.
我们有一个亚洲 And we have an Asia,
港元 the Hong Kong dollar,
这是与美元和美元挂钩的 which is pegged to the US dollar and the same dollar,
这一篮子货币与一篮子货币挂钩 这些货币在权重和相对于其贸易伙伴的权重时没有公开 which is pegged to a basket of currencies that are not made public in terms of the weightings and the exact sizes of those those weightings relative to their trading partners.
在外汇市场上 商品浮动 In the forex markets commodity floating,
我们讨论的是有商品风险的浮动机制 so we're talking about floating regimes that have commodity exposure.
我们之前看到的四种是猎豹的一部分 We have our four that we looked at earlier that are part of the cheetah,
但我们不叫他们geeta 我们称他们为发达的商品浮动 but we don't call them geeta and we call them developed commodity float.
我们有DNA We have our DNA,
商品浮动或亚洲商品浮动和拉丁美洲商品浮动 commodity float or Asia commodity Float and Latin America commodity float.
所有这些都是浮动的制度 So all of these are floating regimes.
他们对一到两种商品的出口有很大的风险敞口 That have significant exposure in their exports to one or two commodities.
然后 And then.
我们的下一个机会说商品达到了顶峰 The next part of our opportunities said the commodity peaked.
我们作为MBA和亚洲的学生而被击垮 We break down as the MBA and Asia.
于是艾美商品达到顶峰 亚洲商品支付了 So Amy Commodity peaked and Asia Commodity paid.
这里是m And we have here in M.
他吃掉了所有的GCC国家 He ate all of the GCC countries.
唯一的亚洲人 And the only Asian.
对大宗商品有重大敞口的货币 Currency that has significant exposure to commodities,
这是中国的人民币 and this fact is the Chinese yuan,
我们这里有一个问号 旁边的一个人民币与美元旁边的问号相似 and we have the question mark here next to one of the Chinese yuan is similar to the question mark next to the same dollar.
为什么呢 Why is that?
嗯 Well?
是因为 It's because?
货币作为宠物的方式并不完全是100% The way in which the currency is pet is not fully one hundred percent.
意识到或者可以理解 Aware or understandable,
所以 so,
例如 for example,
和新加坡元 with the Singapore dollar.
新加坡元有一篮子货币的权重 There is a basket of currencies that the Singapore dollar is weighted towards.
我们没有100%的人知道这些货币是什么 We don't have one hundred per cent know what those currencies are,
我们没有100%的人知道权重是多少 and we don't have one hundred per cent know what the weightings are,
这实际上是为了阻止人们对货币的投机 and that is essentially to stop speculation on the currency.
人民币与美元挂钩 The Chinese yuan is pegged against the US dollar,
但这就是我们所说的爬行挂钩 but it's what we call a crawling peg.
它不是以特定速率固定的 in which it's not exactly fixed at a particular rate,
变化的速率 the rate of changes.
所以这是值得怀疑的 So it's questionable.
再一次 Again,
我们将在第二段视频中正确地研究这些东西 we'll look into these things properly in video number two.
但就目前而言 But for now.
我们只需要把这个原则降下来 We just need to get this principle down,
也就是 which is.
我们必须根据他们的机会和风险开始细分和定义货币 We have to start segmenting and defining currencies based on their opportunities and risks.
我吃它们的挥发性 I eat their volatility.
通过这样做 我们创造了机会 And by doing so we create our opportunity set.
机会集实际上是在找出赚钱的机会 The opportunity set is essentially working out where the opportunities lie to make money,
作为交易员 as traders.
总共有40种货币 So we've got forty six currencies in total.
其中有三十六个是浮动的 Thirty six of them are floating,
其中有10个是固定的或固定的种族主义政权 and ten of them are pegged or fix racist regimes.
因此 这一潜在的限制是市场上三十六种货币的机会 So this potentially limits are opportunities to thirty six currencies in the market.
因为垫子或固定模式 Because the pads or fix regimes.
意思是 货币价值由中央政府在非常严格的范围内控制 mean that the currency value is controlled by the central authorities within very tight specific ranges.
这是什么意思呢 What do we mean by that?
嗯 Well,
中央政府自己干预货币市场 确保他们的货币保持一定的价值 the central authorities themselves intervene in the currency markets and they make sure that their currencies stay at a certain value now,
我们之前讲过 as we talked about earlier,
在资产价格保持不变的情况下 with asset prices staying at the same price,
我们使用欧元美元的例子 we use the Eurodollar example.
如果资产价格在任何时间范围内都保持在相同的价格上 If an asset price stays at the same price constantly over any time horizon.
所以有一天 So one day,
一个星期 one week,
一个月 one month,
一年三个月 three months one year,
我们买卖 and we buy and sell.
这一资产的价格一直都是一样的 并为此付出了代价 That asset at the same price all the time and pay to do so.
我们根本无法赚钱 因为没有波动 We simply can't make money because there is no volatility.
这与实际的固定制度是相同的 This is the same situation with practical fixed regimes.
因为他们每个月都在同一个价位上 Because they stay at the same price every day every week every month,
每年每三个月 every three months every year.
因此 Therefore,
作为交易者 we know as traders,
没有波动 也没有赚钱的机会 there's no volatility and no opportunity to make money.
除非 Unless,
当然 of course,
中央政府决定不继续干预外汇市场 the central authorities decide not to continue intervening in the currency market.
但交易员不会这么做 But as traders were not going to,
例如 for example,
在这里坐5个10 sit here for five ten,
二十年 twenty years,
他们的手每天都在看一种货币 the hands had just watch a currency every day.
以同样的价格进行交易 Trade at the same price,
等待某事发生 waiting for something to happen.
我们需要对它进行分段 and we need to just segment.
通过波动性和机会 By volatility and opportunities,
关注机会在一致的基础上 and focus on where the opportunities are on a consistent basis.
所以我们发现 在这30个中 So what we find this is that out of these thirty,
六个潜在的机会 six potential opportunities,
这些机会中有17个是浮动的货币 它们是浮动的 seventeen of these opportunities are floating currencies that are X commodity floating.
所以它们是非商品货币 So they're non commodity currencies,
这意味着这些国家在出口方面没有明显的敞口 meaning the countries don't have significant exposure in their exports.
对一种或多种全球大宗商品价格 To one or a multitude of global commodity prices.
19种浮动货币 Nineteen of the floating currencies,
这些机会中有19个是我们所说的商品货币 nineteen of these opportunities are what we term as commodity currencies,
因此 中国的成年人对一到两种商品的出口有很大的风险敞口 so the country's adults significant exposure in their exports to one or two commodities.
我们也发现了 What we also find.
这四种货币有大量的大宗商品敞口 Is that four of the currencies have significant commodities exposure,
那么那些有风险敞口或欺骗货币的国家呢 so the ones that do have that exposure or cheated currencies?
Jeetan So Jeetan,
根据投资银行和零售经纪人的定义 as defined by investment banks and retail brokers,
说他们发展了 said that so they developed.
它们是相当大的经济体和所有的拉丁货币 They are quite large economies and all Latin currencies.
在那里浮动的拉丁美洲货币 Latin American currencies that float there floating and?
这是拉丁美洲国家 That's the Latin American countries.
不知道拉丁美洲国家对大宗商品没有明显的敞口 There's not know Latin American countries that don't have significant exposure to commodities.
这是唯一的八个国家 The only the only eight countries.
这已经达到了顶峰或者是固定区域或海湾合作委员会国家 That have peaked or fix regions or GCC countries.
我们还发现 丹麦是唯一一个有管道或固定制度的发达经济体 and we also find that Denmark is the only developed economy with a pipe or fixed regime.
丹麦克朗的丹麦克朗是欧洲的 And it's the DKK the Danish krone is packed to the Europe.
当我们以这种方式划分时 你还注意到我们的机会吗 What else do you notice about our opportunities when we segment in this way?
嗯 Well,
我们发现了吗 we find that?
港元和新加坡元是亚洲唯一没有重大大宗商品敞口的货币 The Hong Kong dollar and the Singapore dollar are the only Asian currencies without significant significance of commodities exposure.
所以它们是非常多样化的 so they're pretty diverse.
唯一没有大宗商品敞口的国家 实际上是有固定汇率或固定汇率制度的 The only ones that without significant commodities exposure that actually have a pegged or fixed regime.
人民币是唯一一种商品公开的货币 在海湾国家委员会之外有一个宠物或固定区域 而这与美元挂钩 The Chinese yuan is the only commodity exposed currency that has a pet or fix region outside the GCC and that's pegged to the US dollar.
同样的美元和科威特第纳尔是唯一一种不披露其固定汇率或固定汇率的货币 And the same dollar and the Kuwaiti Dinar are the only pet or fix regime currencies that don't disclose the weightings of the currencies they are pegged or fixed.
它 It.
这里是30 So here we've got about thirty.
六种货币是三十六种潜在的机会 six currencies are thirty six potential opportunities,
我们把它们都放在同一页上 and we've put them all on the same pages,
所以很容易让你在这里 so it's easy for you to have you here.
我们已经有了外汇市场的浮动 We've got forex markets floating.
嗯 Well,
这实际上是非商品的浮动 that's actually non commodity floating.
那么 我们将会找到什么呢 So what we will be to find us?
那些对大宗商品没有明显敞口的浮动机制 Floating regimes that don't have significant exposure to commodities.
然后是外汇市场的商品浮动 And then we have forex markets commodity floating,
这些都是三十六个机会 so these are all thirty six opportunities.
这些都是我们不需要考虑的不稳定的机会 And these are the ones that we're going to basically have to not consider as volatile opportunities.
这里有X商品协定 So we have here the X Commodity Pact,
其中包括丹麦克朗 which includes the Danish kroner.
港元和单一货币 The Hong Kong dollar and the singular?
大宗商品或大宗商品的价格见顶 And the commodity or the commodity peaked currencies.
所以这些是不动的 So these are the ones that are not going to move.
没有设施或波动是非常小的 There's no facility or volatility is extremely small.
另一种方式是参与者在外汇市场上的利益冲突 Another way in which participants so conflict of interest participants in the forex markets,
一段货币 segments of currencies.
你会在早餐时发现吗 Is you will find at breakfast?
投资银行 Investment banks?
媒体 电视 Media outlets so television,
报纸和网络媒体都倾向于引用大的货币 newspapers and online media everything tends to get quoted against the big currencies,
一般的是反对美元 因为 and the generic one is against the US dollar because the?
u U.
美元是世界的储备货币 S dollar is the world's reserve currency.
所以你会发现很多时候所有的东西都是用美元来表示的还是 So what you're going to find a lot of the time is everything is quoted against the US dollar or?
它反复引用美元 It's quoted repeatedly against the US dollar,
默认情况下 so all by default.
所以 So.
货币的交叉或对 这是对美国的普遍引用 The currency crossed or pair that's generically quoted against the U.
美元被称为美元交叉 S dollar is called a dollar cross.
这可以是世界上任何一种货币 And that can be any currency in the world,
让我们看一看 so let's have a look at one.
现在 Now.
俄罗斯卢布 the Russian rouble,
例如 for example,
在写作的时候 at the time of writing.
俄罗斯卢布 the Russian ruble,
是60点到3点5分吗 was sixty to spot three five to the?
u U.
美元 S dollar.
你读的方式是一个u And the way you read that is one U.
1美元等于60 兑换3个5个俄罗斯卢布 S dollar equals sixty to spot three five Russian roubles,
一美元买了六十二点 so one dollar buys sixty two point,
三五卢布 three five roubles,
或者是六十二点 or it takes sixty two point,
三五卢布买一个u three five roubles to buy one U.
美元 S dollar.
美元的主要货币都是大的 因为所有的主要货币都是用美元来表示的 The dollar majors are turned majors because it's all the major currencies are quoted against the US dollar,
这些占全球外汇市场每日交易量的85% and these make up eighty five percent of daily transaction volume in the forex markets globally.
然后呢 And?
当你看主要货币时 When you look at the major currencies,
我们看看欧元 so we look at euro,
日元 yen,
英镑 sterling,
瑞士法郎 Swiss franc,
加拿大元 Canadian dollar,
港币 Hong Kong dollar.
当你看主要货币兑美元的时候 When you look at the major currencies against the US dollar.
这些是构成日常交易的绝大部分 These are the ones that make up the vast majority of daily transactions,
你将看到的是一张桌子 and what you're going to see is a table.
印在所有媒体上 Printed on all media outlets,
不管是电视上的财经新闻 so whether it's on television on Financial News,
查尔斯 Charles,
在屏幕的底部有一个断续器 where you have the ticker dropping across the bottom of the screen.
或者是在网上 Or whether it's online,
或者是在报纸上 or whether it's in the newspaper,
你会看到一个交叉汇率的表格 you're going to see a table of cross rates.
因此被引用的货币 So currencies that are quoted against.
美国 The U.
美元 S dollar.
我们称这些为美元专业 So we call these the dollar majors and.
我们都再穿一次 We all wear again.
落入陷阱 Falling into the trap here,
作为零售商人 as retail traders?
再一次 Again,
我们陷入了以经济规模或交易规模来划分货币的陷阱 we're falling into the trap of segmenting currencies by the size of the economy or the size of the transactions that occur.
我们必须非常小心因为真正重要的是 and we have to be very careful because what really matters obviously is,
正如我们所指出的 as we've pointed out,
这些货币的波动性 the volatility of these currencies.
所以你可以看到 so you can see,
例如 for example,
在这张桌子上 in the table here.
这是一种针对美元的货币 this is every currency that's created against the US dollar.
这些被称为美元专业 These are known as the dollar majors.
交叉汇率 Cross rates,
具体来说 交叉汇率被定义为不存在的货币 specifically cross rates are defined as the currencies that are not.
引用了美国没有引用的交叉汇率 quoted the cross rates that are not quoted against the U.
美元的交叉汇率被认为是相互竞争的 S dollar cross rates are quoted as the majors against each other.
所以 So,
例如 for example,
这里是加拿大元 we have here the Canadian dollar.
对其他主要货币的报价 quoted against the rest of the major currencies,
这里的加拿大元 so the Canadian dollar here,
男孩们 boys,
九十五个点吃了五九个日本人 ninety five spot ate five nine Japanese.
然而 Yet.
这是一张桌子 当你把所有的东西组合起来 And this is the table when you combine the whole lot,
这是你们将一直看到的表格 this is the table that you're going to see all the time.
一般来说 In general,
媒体 media outlets,
美元专业和纵横字谜 the dollar majors and the crosswords.
但我们现在知道了 我们知道当我们看到这个的时候 But we know better now we know that when we see this,
这并不意味着我们所看到的是一张充满机会的表格 this doesn't mean what we're looking at is a table of opportunity.
我们正在看的桌子 The table that we're looking at.
它只是一种主要货币兑美元和对自己不利 It's just a major currencies against the US dollar and against themselves.
这并不一定等于波动性 And that doesn't necessarily equal volatility,
机会和风险 opportunity and risk,
所以我们用另一种方式来划分 so we segment in a different way.
作为专业交易员 我们必须根据货币的依赖程度来划分 As professional traders we have to segment based on what the currency is dependent on.
乐队 Band.
货币是什么制度的一部分 What regime the currency is part of?
这是我们迈出的第一步 That's the first step we take.
我们将在视频系列中进一步研究这个问题 So we're going to build this out further as we go through the video series,
但我们已经迈出了重要的第一步 but we've taken a very important first step.
在准确定义专业培训师群体中 货币和这些组织是基于寻找波动性的原则 In defining exactly how professional trainers group that currencies and those groupings are based on the principle of seeking out volatility,
机会和风险 so opportunity and risk.
所以 So.
我们已经迈出了第一步 We've taken that first step,
我们会更进一步 接下来我们要做的是看第二段视频 第二段视频会是 we'll build up further and what we have to do next is go to video number two and video number two will be.
我们将集中精力真正理解外汇制度之间的差异 We'll be concentrating on really understanding the differences between forex regimes,
所以固定的和浮动的 so the fixed versus the floating regime.
在我们继续看视频之前 Before we move on to video,
同样 too,
尽管我要去 though I'm going to go.
让我们到交易部门做个简短的总结 Let's go over to the trading desk for a quick summary,
然后我们再看第二段视频继续建立这个基础 and then we'll shoot over to video number two and continue to build out this foundation.
好的 Okay,
欢迎回到办公桌 so welcome back to the desk.
你刚才看到的 what you just saw,
我是第一个真正理解并在全球货币市场建立基础的步骤 that I was the first real step to understanding and getting a foundation in the global currency markets,
这实际上是为了看看全球外汇市场给我们带来的机会 作为交易者 which is actually to look at the opportunities the opportunity set that the global currency markets presented to us as traders.
第一步是真正理解定义 And the first step is really understanding definitions when you see,
例如 for example,
作为一个零售商人 as a retail trader,
每天都有一种感觉 你会在电视上买到一家经纪公司或一家媒体公司 或者在网上看报纸 甚至上网 你会发现什么 a daily run down sensing you buy a brokerage company or a media company I'd like on television or read a newspaper or even online and what you'll find.
他阻止了所有这些人 He stopped all of these people.
所有这些公司 All of these companies.
它们是基于这些流行的和预先确定的定义的货币 They group of currencies based on these popularized and pre determined definitions.
你在电脑屏幕上看到的是一个例子 说明他们是如何做到这一点的 如此扣人心弦 以至于整个黎明都进入了一个区域 And what you saw it on the computer screen was an example of how they all do this so gripping that all of the dawn across it into one area,
把所有非暴力的十字架都归类 grouping all of the nonviolent crosses.
因此 欧元超过了日元 越过了一个地区的英镑交叉点 So the euro crosses the yen crosses the sterling crosses points of one area,
而且 它已经被国家和货币本身的规模和地理位置所决定 and it's already predetermined by the size and geography of the countries and currencies themselves.
所以大的国家不在这里 So big countries are not over here,
因此 大国对美元的反对是相互对立的 so big countries against the US dollar in countries against each other and.
作为一个零售商人 As a retail trader,
你不能一直用这些定义 you can't have it all the time with these definitions,
这实际上是一种错误的方式来看待我们发现的东西 and it's actually the wrong way to look at things as we discovered.
专业交易员看待事物的方式是他们实际上开始分裂 and the way professional traders look at things is they actually starts splitting up?
事情马上就发生了 Things immediately?
再加上定义 使定义固定在波动中 Add into definitions which perpetuates a definition that is anchored to volatility.
我们采取的第一个步骤是观察不同的制度 看看货币实际上是相互联系的所以我们并不关心经济的规模 And the first step we took there was to look at the different regimes and look about the currency's are actually connected to so we were not really caring about the size of the economy.
现在 At the moment.
我们并不是真的不关心地理 we're not really were not really caring about the geography.
这是怎么回事 What were carrying about it?
什么政体是货币 有一个固定或浮动的机会 What regime is the currency and is there an opportunity that so fixed or floating,
他们以任何方式连接到一种商品或两种商品 and all they connected in any way to a commodity or or maybe two commodities?
我们做到了吗 And we do that?
因为波动是主观的 因为暴露在一个或两个或多个因素的集中 Because volatility is subjective to the concentration of being exposed to one or two or a multitude of factors.
所以我们所做的就是将我们在这个机会中所拥有的40种货币分割开来 So what we did was we split up the forty six currencies that we have available there in that opportunity,
他说 he said,
然后用一种可能的挥发性来分割它们 and split them up in a way that to find them by potential volatility.
这就是我们要继续前进的事实 Now that's just the fact that we're going to move on.
随着我们在基础上进一步在波动基础上定义这些货币 As we progressed through foundation into defining these currencies further on volatility basis,
而不是经济或地理的规模 not on a the size of the economy or geography.
花瓶 Vases.
这是一个非常关键的理解 我们作为专业交易员所做的每一件事都需要专注于捕捉波动 这样我们就能建立起我们的父亲 It's a very key to understand that everything we do as a professional traders needs to be focused on capturing volatility so we will build this our father.
但就目前而言 But for the moment,
就拿 just take.
基本原则 The basic principle.
专业交易员必须抓住波动性吗 Has professional traders have to capture the volatility?
我们已经迈出了第一步 So we've taken the first step.
我们已经定义了这个机会 So we've defined the opportunity,
他说 he said,
定义了定义 and defined the definition.
我们在一两天内要做的事情是真正理解固定和浮动制度之间的区别 The next thing we're going to do in a day or two is really understand the difference between fixed and floating regimes.
你需要了解它的历史 并为固定和浮动制度之间的差异打下坚实的基础 You need to understand the history of it and get a really strong foundation of the differences between fixed and floating regimes.
我将在第二段视频中看到你们 So I'm going to see you back in the desk in video number two,
我们会详细地研究这些差异 and we'll look at those differences in great detail.