Now finally I want to turn, to two specific countries, and look at some of
the longitudinal trends in support for democracy.
These are countries that have been more troubled within their respective, regions
of East Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Looking first at the Philipines, we see
that support for democracy was not at the level that one would expect of a
consolidated democracy, but it wasn't bad at 64%.
54% were satisfied. With the way democracy was working, 70%
rejected the idea of the strong leader being given the power and just doing away
with parliament, all of these numbers declined in 2005 as the country fell into
a very significant crisis. That ultimately plunged the Philippines
in the judgement of many observers down below the threshold of electoral
democracy after many abuses of power by the incumbent president, Gloria Macapagel
Arroyo. And so there was a dramatic decline.
In the percentage saying democracy is always preferable down to barely half.
A dramatic decline to below 40% in the percentage saying they're satisfied with
democracy and also erosion in the idea of rejecting a strong authoritarian leader.
By 2010, there had been political change in the Phillipines.
A new president, Ninoy Akino, the son of the founding president of the Philipines
in the new democratic era in 1986. Corizon Akino, Benino or Nino Aquino came
to power in the free and fair election and begun to provide new hope and new
levels of respect for democratic norms and procedures, as a result of which we
see some recovery and support for decmocracy.
Particularly in satisfaction with democracy, which rose by 15% points.
And in the percentage rejecting, the idea of an authoritarian strong leader, as a
viable option for the Philipines. Finally let's look at Nigeria, one of the
most interesting and one of the most troubled, political systems in
sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria returned to democracy after a
long and treacherous period. Of authoritarian rule by the military.
in the year 1999 a new democratic party was elected, and there was real euphoria
in the country. In 2000, still basking the light of that
relief. Of delivery from truly predetornian
tyranical military rule. So, we saw in the first round of the
Afrobarometer, levels of public enthusiasm in support for democracy that
were really off the charts. 84% saying democracy is always
preferable, 90% rejecting the option of military rule, 81% saying they're
satisfied with democracy, 78% saying they trust the new president, Olusegun
Obasanjo, at the time. 64% saying that they think the government
is working to control corruption. No one expected these levels of euphoric
support for democracy to last in Nigeria. But what's been disturbing is the gradual
decline particularly during the period of Obasanjo's rule as he moved to try and
change the constitution to allow himself to run for a third term as president.
We can see just precipitous slide in public support for Democracy.
In particular in satisfaction with the way democracy is working in the country
and trust in the president, which went down as low as 18% in 2003.
And 26% in 2005. Satisfaction with democracy declined from
81% in the year 2000 to 25% in 2005. And, of course, we have also a critical
event in 2003. Of, elections, to renew the government
that were widely, considered, profoundly fraudulent.
we see, however, that during this period support for democracy and principal among
Nigerians holds up reasonably well. As does the rejection of the military as
an option. There was certainly a decline from the
previous levels. From 90% to about 70 73%.
Satisfication rebounded slightly in 2008, when Obasanjo was not able to run for
re-election in 2007 for a third term. Failed in his bid to amend the
constitution and at least there was a rotation in power in some recovery in the
trust in the president. But here is the final point that I would
like to make. We see here that one of the things that
seems to be associated with the slide. A downward trend.
In satisfaction with democracy and even in support for democracy is the
preception that government is working to control corruption, which fell from 64%
in the year 2000 to 48% in 2001, 26% in 2003, and 36% in 2005.
When government works to control corruption and deliver accountability,
people are willing to give it more time and have faith in it's basic encumbance
and rules and procedures and institutions.
But when people see that the politicans are only helping themselves and not the
mass public and that they're using the treasury as their own personal piggy bank
to grow rich beyond imagination, this has an extremely alienating and depressing
effect on public support for democracy. And public satisfaction with the way the
specific institutions of democracy in their country are working.
And this reminds us of how important good, honest, accountable governance is
to the stability and consolidation of democracy and to the entrenchment of
public faith in the democratic process.