早上好 欢迎来到干预私人交易大厅 Good morning, and welcome to the Intervene private access trading room.
我是BobVoiceman 如果我们能快速地举手 举手让我知道你听得很清楚 I'm Bob Voiceman. If we can do a quick handing, a raise of your hand to let me know that you're hearing me loud and clear.
我有话要说 我很抱歉马克·里奇昨晚看着他的熊试图策划一场胜利 但还不够好 I have uh to say. I'm sorry to Mark Richie watching his bears last night try to plot a win, but just not quite good enough.
对不起 马克 去啤酒 现实很快就告诉我 这是个糟糕的决定 Sorry, mark. Go beers. Reality let in pretty quick that that 1" that's a terrible call.
那当然是触地得分 但是我的老鹰队今晚比赛 所以我很期待 That was a touchdown, for sure, but the, uh my, eagles play tonight, so I'm looking forward to that.
还有 我想请你们举手你们听不清楚他说什么看起来很好 Also, wanted just ask you to raise your hand for markergy that you're hearing him not in clear That looks great.
我们将把它交给MarkMenri开始 And we're going to hand it off to Mark Menri to get started.
好了 希望大家周末过得愉快 Okay, I hope everyone had a good weekend.
欢迎大家光临 嗯 因此 我们将在本周召开货币政策会议 我将确定加息75个基点 Welcome this morning. Um. So we've got the F-O-M-C meeting coming up this week, which I will get a certain interest rate hike of probably 75 basis points.
现在大概有82%的概率 Is about an 82% probability right now.
这反映了美联储将加息75个基点 但加息100个基点的可能性为18% That's being priced into it a 75 basis point hike, and but 18 20% chance of 100 basis points.
我个人认为 100个基点会更好 甚至可能更受欢迎 I personally, I think a 100 basis point would be better and maybe even more well received.
但我们将观察市场对此的反应 But we'll see how the market responds to that.
这真的很重要 我相信这方面会有一些波动 That's really important. I'm sure there'll be some volatility around that.
目前唯一坚挺的股票 E-N-PH就像冠军一样坚挺 The only stocks that are really holding up at this point, you know, E-N PH is holding up like a champ.
太阳能 还有生物技术 这是我感兴趣的两个领域 Solar, uh, and biotechs, the two areas that I would be interested in.
当然 也有一些防御性的名字 And of course, there's some defensive names.
我会把这个女主人 T-W-N-K 代表20嗯 作为一个更具防御性的名字 I would put this hostess, T-W-N-K, which stands for 20 um, as one of those more defensive names.
这是不久前发行的新股 由a股发行这是股票生命周期中相对较新的股票 This is a new issue not too long ago, coming out of A-A base that is more relatively new base within the life of the stock um.
所以 我们在早上做了深蹲 清晨深蹲 当你在中午12点或凌晨1点之前做清晨深蹲时 我通常会尝试在一天结束前做深蹲 看看你是否能得到一件强壮的衣服 So again, we got that squat here in the morning, early day squats, when you reverse and have an early day reversal before 12:00, 01:00, I generally like to try to give it till the end of the day to see if you can get a strong clothes.
即使你在这里穿了一些脏衣服 你仍然想要 你知道 坚持下去 看看你是否能逆转恢复 或者在未来几天 甚至有时 你知道 一到两周 And even if you got some amid clothes here, you still want to, you know, stick with it and see if you can get a reversal recovery, or in coming days, or even sometimes, as long as, you know, one to two weeks.
只要它能停下来 我通常会留在交易中 如果你是波动交易的话 As long as it holds to stop, I would generally stay in a trade, if, if you're swing trading.
嗯 除此之外 我们只有几个名字 你知道的 在这里 Um. Other than that, we've got only a few names that are, you know, holding up here.
然后是凯蒂 当然 为什么要往下走 然后停下来 And then Katy. And why, of course, moved down and went hit a stop.
我的压力越来越大 实际上是在压力下 I was getting under pressure. When actually went under pressure.
星期五的眼睛 这就是现在的情况 Uh, eyes of Friday. And that's about it right now.
没有很多 你看一个类似dgII的东西 它有序地向后拉 现在你得到了这个小尖刺 There's not a whole lot. You look at something like a dg II, which was pulling back quite orderly, and now you got this little spike.
这就是我所说的漂移 This is what I call a drift.
当你向后拉的时候 你就会变尖 然后你就会变尖 And spike when you pull back and you drift, and then you spike down, um.
有时这会导致最后的低点 你会被拉回 我不希望看到这里有太多的波动 但它看起来像 你知道 我们在右边得到了一点泄漏 就像pcTC从这里出来 然后得到 你知道 高点 And sometimes that puts in the final lower you get a pull back by from I would prefer not to see too much volatility over here, but it looks like, you know, we are getting a little bit of leakage here on the right side of, like, a pc TC coming off here, and then getting, you know, the highs.
这实际上是相当有建设性的收紧 This is actually quite constructive tightening up.
所以这是一个 呃 不可能的位置 So this is one that is, um, inviable position.
但是那里没有很多 另一件我想看的事是 E-T-F-A-T-A-N 如果你想把士兵作为一种演奏整个团队的方式 But there there aren't many. The other thing that I would look at, uh, E-T-F-A-T-A-N, if you want to try to play the soldiers as a way to play the whole group.
嗯 你的确有一个早期转折 Um, you do have an early turn here.
200天仍然处于下降趋势 200 days still in a down trend.
从这里开始 从这个小柱子开始 我不会太激进 可能是四分之一的位置如果你通过这个枢轴点 你可以加上它 Starts turning up here from this this little pole back by, I wouldn't get too aggressive, maybe a quarter position if you get through this pivot point, you can add to it.
然后如果你能超过这些 这些高点 嗯 让200天开始变平 你可以在那里增加 And then if you can turn above these, these highs here, um, and get the 200 day to flatten out start turning up, you can add to it there.
所以我在这方面会更有增量 So I'd be more incremental with that.
差不多就是这样 让我们来回答一些问题 And that's about it. Let's get to some questions.
我想我已经在两个周末的视频中讲过了 I think I covered most of this in the o in the two weekend videos.
是的 听起来不错 第一个问题是詹姆斯提的 他问 如果你像威廉·曼尼尔一样 每周都看图表 我总是看每周 Yep. Sounds good. Uh 1st question is coming from James, who's asking, if, uh, you work off the weekly charts, like William Manil, I work off both I-I always look at a weekly, um.
在看T-A的例子中 让我们扫描一下 你可以看到这是每天的 And so in the instance of taking a look at something like T-A, yeah, let's just scan out in this a bit, you can see here's the daily um.
现在如果我把周报调到这里 你可以看到周报也有一个很好的基础 And now if I bring up the weekly here, you can see the weekly also has a pretty well formed base.
在这里 大的底部削弱了低点 Here, large base undercut the lows.
这就是我所说的基座下的基座 This is what I call a base under a base.
所以你可以在一个碱上面得到一个碱 然后在另一个碱上面形成一个碱 So you can get a base on top of a base where you would break out, and then form a base on top of the other base.
通常情况下 市场变得疲软 会将股票压制在一个底部 在你离开的底部 然后你压低这些低点 And usually the market gets weak and will hold a stock back a base under a base where you come off, and then you undercut those lows.
这需要一个更大的底 所以左边离主轴形成的地方有一段距离 因为你不想进入那个即时供给 And that needs to be a larger base, so the left side is a good distance away from where the pivot is forming, because you don't want to be going into that immediate supply.
所以这就是这种情况 可以看做是二重矩阵 So that's this, this scenario, ill, which is could be looked at as a double
底部 去掉底部 实际上是双底部中的双底部 bottom, take out the lows, or double bottom within a double bottom, actually.
这是一种分形图案 你在图案中得到图案 So these are this sort of like a fractal pattern, where you're getting patterns within patterns.
但我总是看每周 嗯 即使我想要一个非常长期的视角 我甚至可能会看一个月来计算 But I always look at the weekly um, and even if I want to get a really long term perspective, I might even look at a monthly to count basis.
但每周 我通常会像这样缩小 看一看 它形成了多少个碱基 看它是否处于晚期 But the weekly, usually I'll zoom out like this and take a look and see, you know, how many bases it's it's formed, and see whether it's late stage or not.
但是 但是我不会从每周的节目中截取 But, but I don't screen off of the weekly.
我第一眼看到的是每日的标记 My 1st look is up is the daily mark.
你呢 你呢 你你是每周的顾问吗 How about you? Do you? Um, you you consult the weekly?
是的 筛选 我总是两件都穿 Yes, screening. I always just have both on.
然后 你知道 我的主屏幕 And then, you know, my primary screen as well.
所以当我点击他的符号时 我总是在同一个屏幕上看到每日和每周 所以我也总是在看它 So when he's symbol I click to, I always just have the daily and the weekly on the same single screen, so I'm always looking at it as well.
但我每天都在权衡 But I trade off the daily.
是的 是的 我们得到了更多的粒度 Yeah, yeah, we get that more granularity.
当趋势模型在长期震荡时改善时 JP以1k的价格购买了spY的25%的长期头寸 JP has purchased a 25% position in sp Y in his long term for one k when the trend model improved at the long term tremo.
什么时候我应该考虑把这个卖给这个 然后回到100%现金 At what point should I think about selling this to this and going back to a hundred percent cash?
是的 我的意思是 你当然可以 嗯 嗯 设置止损如果你有一定的 你知道的 金额数字 一个你不想冒更多风险的百分比 Well, yeah, I mean, you could certainly, um, uh, set a stop on it if you had a certain, you know, dollar figure, a percentage that you didn't want to risk more of.
但我会 你知道 坚持下去 But I would just, you know, stick with it.
如果趋势模型反转 进入一个单元格 你可以卖出 If the trend model reverses and goes to a cell, you could sell.
如果油价跌至中性 跌至50% 也许还会跌去一半 你知道 如果它能剔除低点 我们可能会得到一个低价 但我们当然希望 我们希望市场不要剔除那些低点 If it goes to neutral, goes to 50 %, maybe cut it in half also, you know, if it takes out the lows, we may get an undercut, but that certainly we'd like, we'd like the market not to take those lowes out.
我希望看到市场保持在这里 也许 嗯 我们会在美联储的声明周围看到一些愚蠢的秃发 然后我们开始建立这个基础 I would love to see the market hold here, and maybe, um, we get some bald silly around the uh, the FED announcement, and we start building that base.
这就是我一直在观察的 看看我们是否可以开始建立正确的一面 That's what I've been watching for to see if we could start building that right side.
这看起来更像是1990年的情景 That would look, you know, more like the 1990 scenario.
如果我们走得更远 我们就会像1962年那样 走得更远 度过低谷 If we come off much more than this, we're going to look like the 1962 And much more than that, get through the lows.
如果 你知道 通货膨胀开始上升 他们不得不采取比更严重的衰退更激进的措施 我们可能会像20世纪70年代那样 And if, you know, inflation starts moving up, and they have to get even more aggressive than a deeper recession, we could look like the 1970s.
所以 当然 这是有风险的 So, you know, of course, that's the risk.
但是25% 嗯 让我们假设我的情况 你知道 从这里再下降10% 你知道 发生了 But being 25 %, um, let's just say my scenario of, you know, coming off another 10% from here, you know, takes place.
你看到的是 你知道 可能是2 5% 3%的下降 如果你是长期的 这是非常 非常小的 你知道 你可能想坚持下去 给它一些空间 你知道 也许我会增加它 You're looking at, you know, maybe a two and a half, 3% draw down, if you're a long term, that's pretty, that's pretty small, you know, you might want to stick with it and give it, give it some room, you know, maybe I would be incremental with it.
同样 如果模型变为中性 可能会削减它 And again, if the model turns neutral, maybe cut it back.
但是 还是25% 你知道 在这一点上 我们已经跌了这么多 是的 我的意思是 如果你真的是长期的 你可以坚持下去 Um, but again, 25 %. You know, at this point, with us already being down this much, yeah, I mean, if you're really long term, you could just stick with it.
克雷格问我们是否只在大批量的时候才买爆点 Craig's asking if we were to buy breakouts only on high volume, e.g.
使用较低的时间框架 或者使用其他方法来估计交易量 如果在一天的早些时候 你认为这将提高我们的击球率吗 using lower time frame, or using some other method to estimate the volume, if early in the day, do you think this would improve our batting average?
不 我不喜欢 嗯 所以音量 你只需要看看音量是如何运行的 No, I don't. Um. So the volume, you just have to see how the volume's running.
但是你不会知道它是否有很大的交易量除非它在爆发的时候运行 高于平均水平 或者 你知道 你要等到当天晚些时候 当交易量开始增加 超过日均交易量时 But you're not gonna know if it's high volume unless it's running so, you know, above average at the time that it breaks out, or, you know, you're waiting until later in the day when the volume starts building up to get above its average daily volume.
所以你想看到 你知道 体积进来了 So you do want to see, you know, volume coming in.
但是一些最好的突破 一些股票 你知道 我参与过的 已经有了巨大的波动 在低交易量的情况下爆发 然后几天后交易量就来了 But some of the best breakouts, and some of the stocks that, you know, I've been in that have made huge moves, broke out on low volume, and then the volume came in days later.
事实上 这取决于市场的结构和形势 其实我更喜欢 你知道 收购一个突破 因为问题是当你 我不应该说这个问题 但有时的场景是 当你得到一个高容量突破 有时候很多散户资金进来 你知道 这是 这是在那些假头 嗯 看起来很大的体积 它是 As a matter of fact, depending on the texture of the market and and the situation, I actually prefer, you know, to acquire a breakout where there's because the problem is when you get, and I shouldn't say the problem, but the scenario sometimes is, when you get a high volume breakout, sometimes it's a lot of retail money coming in there, you know, and it's, and it's in those head fakes, uh, it looks like a lot of volume, and it is.
它可能高于平均水平 但这是不可持续的 It might be above average, but it's not sustainable.
所以当你得到平静的爆发时 它表明股票中没有很多眼睛 And so when you get the quiet break out, it shows that there's not a whole lot of eyes in the stock there.
当它经过那个支点时 就会有一个气流 每个人都冲进去 When it goes through that pivot, there's an ulves and everybody's come rushing into it.
有时候这种方法效果更好 And sometimes those tend to work even better.
但她爆发的关键是观察接下来几天到几周的后续动作 一 二 三 四天到二 一到两周 But the key of her breakouts is to watch the subsequent action of the next several days to several weeks, one, the next two, three, four days to the next two, one to two weeks.
这就是模型的真正用武之地 That's where model it really comes in.
方便 就违规行为而言 在警报中显示出来的是我真正关心的 嗯 你知道 在爆发的接下来几天 你知道 第一天 两天 三天 我想看看它是否能坚持下去 Handy. And what's showing up in alert as far as violations, is really what I am totally king in on, um, you know, in the subsequent days of a breakout, you know, the 1st, two, three days, I want to see if it can follow through.
如果它不能 它会退缩 我想看到网球在接下来的几天里的动作 If it can't, and it pulls back, I want to see tennis ball action subsequent that that, over the next couple days.
然后 如果 你知道 如果你不能在 你知道 第一个 一到两周 然后我就会真正开始评估和查看 违规是否开始堆积 And then, if, you know, if you can't get going in the in the, you know, 1st, one to two weeks, then I'm going to really start assessing and seeing, are the violations starting to pile up?
这就是负的 告诉我股票不会在Q上移动 所以我不想太担心这个 And that's what that would be getting negative in telling me that the stock's not moving on Q So I want to get too worried about that.
我不认为你会进步 I don't think you're going to improve.
你的平均击球率是 你知道 等待 You're batting average by, you know, waiting
用于确认音量 K杰瑞是 for a confirming volume. K Jerry is
问 这是我的曲调 有一年我说 曲线 asking, this is my tune. One year I said, curve.
抱歉 这让我有点困惑 Sorry, that's a little confusing to me.
自从使用MPA方法 我在两年内涨了43% Um, since using the MPA approach, I'm up 43% in two years.
你能给我一些评价吗 Could you give me some comment?
哦 我看到他提供的是两年的回报湖中一年的回报 Oh, I see he's providing a two year return in one year return on the lake.
杰瑞 我不认为我们有能力在这个长度上点击 Jerry, I don't think we're going to have the ability for us to click on that length.
让我们 呃 我们想从印度提一个问题上周 你的警告非常完美首先 我们看到了很多小队 然后是很多支点故障 然后是基地故障 沿着印度河分布 Let's um we want to kush of's question From India Over the last week, your warnings are coming in picture perfect Manner 1st we saw lots of squads, then lots of pivot failures, then base failures, following distribution in the induses.
谢谢你教我们如何获取信息一个问题是怎样的我们应该从多早开始寻找休眠来确定它是一个抛物线移动还是一个权力游戏 Thank you for teaching us in taking the information how a question is How far back should we look for dormancy to ascertain whether it's a parabog move or a power play?
在这种情况下 如果一只股票在8周内100%的移动之前休眠了6个月 但在这休眠的6个月之前有一个很好的上升趋势 我们是否应该认为刚才的paraplay是抛物线性质的 In case of if a stock is lying dormant for six months prior to a hundred percent move in the eight weeks, but had a good uptrent prior to these dormant six months, should we consider that a paraplay was at just now, parabolic in nature?
好吧 有几件事 Well, okay, so there's a few things.
一种是数垒数 One is, you're going to count bases.
你会看到它是否形成了一些碱基 You're going to see if it's made a number of bases.
所以 你知道 如果它离开了第四阶段的基础 并且它做了800%的移动 它当然不是 你知道 这是一个移动的开始 你知道 从休眠期开始 So, you know, if it's off of its 4th stage base and it's made a 800% move, it's certainly not, you know, the start of a move that's, you know, been explosive off of a period of dormacy.
第二件事是 你要回头看看是否有头顶供应 The 2nd thing is, you want to look back and see if there's overhead supply.
80%的跌幅也是如此 So was a big 80% decline.
即使它可能已经休眠和死亡了 你知道 六个月甚至一年 如果你有一个巨大的80%90%的下降到左边 好吧 这是一个问题 And even though it might have went dormant and dead for, you know, six months or even a year, if you got this giant 80 90% decline to the left, okay, that's a problem.
这也在告诉你 这不是一只在第一阶段就死掉的股票 And that is also telling you that, you know, this isn't a stock that was been just laying dead at a stage one.
实际上 你知道 这是严重的分配 并将朝着供应方向发展 It actually was under, you know, serious distribution, and will be heading at the supply.
所以那些是 那些是一些事情 嗯 你知道 不管它是不是在上升 嗯 你知道 在权力博弈中 它不需要在一个确认的教义中 在200天里 你知道 在一个上升的5个月 4个月或5个月 So those are, those are a few of the things, um, you know, whether it's uh uh in an uptrint or not, um, you know, on a power play, it doesn't have to be in a confirmed doctrine, where the 200 days, you know, in an uptread for five, four or five months.
但如果 再一次 就像 你知道 我们看这里的S-P 它处于下降趋势 你有角度警告 But if, again, like something like, you know, we're looking at the S-P here, where it's in a down trend, and you have that angle warning.
你得再小心点 You gotta be a little more careful.
嗯 这些就是 你可以寻找的一些东西 Um. So those are, you know, a few of the things that you can look for.
嗯 另外 另一件事是看它是否有加速的前进速度 Um. Also, the other thing would be to see if it has an accelerated rate of advance.
举个例子 它在上升 它在上升 现在 在它上升了一段之后 它加速了前进的速度然后开始 你知道 抛物线 So, for instance, you know, it's running up, it's running up, and now, after it ran up a bunch, it accelerates its rate of advance and and and starts going, you know, parabolic.
然后你看 它有一个旗帜 你知道 横向的动作 And then you look, it has a flag, you know, the sideways action.
那些 呃 不太可靠 他们更容易失败 Those are, uh, less reliable. They're more failure prone.
当你得到那个 那个之后的加速度 而不是仅仅从低点加速然后进入一个底部 你向上移动 然后你加速你的前进速度到那些是你可以寻找的东西 When you get that, that that later acceleration, as opposed to just accelerating off the lows and then going going into a base, you move up, and then you accelerate your rate of advance to Those are a few things you can look for.
这是一门艺术 你知道 你必须 你知道 阅读图表 并根据 你知道 证据的分量做出评估 It is an art, you know, you do have to, you know, read the charts and and make an assessment based on, sort of, you know, the weight of the evidence.
嗯 但我发现最好的方法来做这个 在任何设置 任何图表中 是利用先例来回顾和查看股票 从基础 主要基础 权力发挥 杯柄 表 低表 Um? But the bet I found the best way to to do this, in in with any setup, any chart, is to use precedents to go back and look at stocks that came off of out of bases, primary bases, power plays, cup of handles, sheets, low sheets.
去拿那本模型书 从我的书开始 oneel的书 Get that model book. Start with my book, oneel's book.
如果你在主交易者程序中 翻页工作簿 你会得到所有这些模型 If you come to the master trader program to page workbook, you've got all these models.
然后开始建立你自己的成功交易模型 然后寻找与这些模型相似的股票 并真正开始回归大卫·瑞安经常说的 外观 Then start building your own models of successful trades, and then look for stocks that look like those models, and really start backing into what David Ryan always says, the look.
你知道 他会对我说 它看起来不像 You know, he'll say to me, it doesn't have the look.
这是风格 你喜欢这个款式 That's style. So you like this style?
你觉得这只看起来不怎么样的股票怎么样 What do you think of this stock at that doesn't have the look?
你知道 我们看 我们知道 建设性的行为应该是什么样的 You know, we're look, we know what, you know, constructive behavior should look like.
所以当你开始自动地看到 这是一个有建设性的基础时 你要把它牢记在心 So you gotta kind of burn that into your mind when you start to see automatically, you know, this is a constructive base.
这有一些问题 然后你可以开始深入挖掘 精确定位 This has got some problems, then you can start digging a deeper, pinpointing that.
马克 我不知道你对此有什么建议吗 I don't know how Mark you have any suggestions for that?
是的 但是 显然优先级是 是的 非常大 Uh, yeah, but, well, obviously the precedence is, yeah, it's huge.
或者 你知道 我们用了大卫的比喻 他说研究不要担心有问题的20美元钞票 Or, you know, we used the analogy of David talking about studying the don't worry about the faulty $20 bills.
学习那些完美的 你知道的 那些刚刚出炉的 Study the perfect ones, the, you know, the ones that are freshly minted.
你知道他们应该长什么样 You know what they were supposed to look like.
我会说 我认为 根据我的经验 一些更好的权力游戏通常是权力游戏有时也会开始 I would say. I think, in my experience, some of the better power plays are usually it's that power play that sometimes starting the stage too.
但是左边的供给并不多 And but there's not a lot of supply to the left.
所以它是从多尔曼海时期出来的 在那里 如果它可能不是最高点 但如果你看左边 它不是在这个下降趋势中 你知道 从12个月前开始 So it's coming out of that period of Dorman Sea, where, if it might not be at all time highs, but if you look left, it's not in this down trend, you know, from twelve months ago.
你知道 在左边没有即时供给 在那里它什么都不做 然后突然它就爆炸了 You know, doesn't have immediate supplied at the left, where it's been doing nothing, and then all of a sudden it just explodes.
这也是一个全新 完整的新阶段的开始 And that is sort of the starting of a new, complete, new stage, too.
是的 他有 你知道 看看第一太阳 你知道 第一太阳移动了赛勒斯很长一段时间 Yeah, he has, you know, look at the 1st solar, you know, 1st solar moved cyrus for a long time.
多年来 这里出现大的修正 然后达到新高 然后横移 你知道 Here for years, big correction, then met the new highs, then its move sideways, you know,
在很长一段时间里 again, for a long period of time.
你知道 灰海有很长很长的时间 You know, ash oceans have long, long period.
但如果你回到这里 这只股票实际上一直在横盘移动 But if you go all the way back here, this stock's really been moving sideways.
你知道 对我来说 快去帮我 You know, for me. Go help me.
把我的搬过来 把我的工具拿来 Just get my Move this and get my tool.
很抱歉 你只要从这里穿过爆炸的地方 Sorry about that. You just come through here where this exploded from.
它从这里开始 你会看到 从那个水平 它真的 那是它在很长一段时间内无法达到的水平 现在它刚刚从那个水平爆炸 并没有达到历史高点 但它正在创造 你知道 无论如何 十年来的高点 It started from right here. You'll see from that level, it really, that was the level that it couldn't get through for a long period of time, and now it just exploded from that level and going to, not all time highs, but it's making, you know, whatever, a ten year, like, a decade high.
她又来了 52周新高 Here she's going, a new 52 week highs.
长期的高潮 爆发 我把这叫做休眠期 Long term highs, exploding from, I would call this a period of dormancy.
现在 这真的是很多横向的动作 它刚刚开始爆炸 Now, this is really a lot of sideways action, and it's just starting to explode.
所以任何状态 都没有加速前进的速度 So any state, it's not accelerating its rate of advance.
这是它第一次离开这里 This is its 1st shot out of here.
所以很有可能 你知道 这确实是一场 你知道 一场权力游戏 你知道 我们应该 我们应该被认真对待 这有可能是一个可以走得更远的举动 So there's a good chance that, you know, this is indeed a, um, you know, A-A-A power play, that, you know, we should be, we should be taken seriously here, that this is potentially a move that can carry even further here.
当然 肩托是目前看起来 你知道 最坚固的 And of course, the shoulder stocks are the ones that are looking, you know, the strongest right now.
嗯 回到有链接的问题 嗯 从Jerry那里 他基本上有一个股票图表 呃 股票限制 在21年突然上涨 在22年 它只是逐渐从高点下降了大约5% 嗯 几乎是全年 Um, just to go back to the question with the link, uh, from Jerry, he basically has a stock chart, uh, equity curb, rather, that has advanced pretty suddenly through 21, and in 22, it's just been drifting off gradually down about 5% off its high, um, pretty much for the year.
所以他的评论是问 嗯 你知道你的评论是什么吗 So his comment was to ask, uh, you know what your comments are of it?
我认为这是对Jerry的证明 当市场提供机会时 你利用了它 And I think that's testament to Jerry as you're taking advantage of the market when it was providing opportunity.
而今年 在一个很难让你的粉饼保持干燥的环境下 做得很好 And this year, where it has been a hard penny environment to really keep your powder cake dry, doing a good job.
是啊 你是在模仿马克·里奇的结果 Yeah, you're sort of mimicking Mark ritchie's results.
你知道吗 你在21年的表现很好而在22年的表现却很好 跌到了个位数 You know, you have a decent ear in 21 and a lightly, you know, flourished to down a single digit in 22.
而且 你知道 对我来说 你可以模仿你真正想做的事情那是 那是每个人都应该想要模仿的人 你知道的 And, you know, for my you can mimic what richer you're gonna do real Well, that's, that's who everybody should be wanting to, uh, mimic, you know.
我的意思是 我自己 当然 还有马克·里奇 如果你 如果你得到的结果和我们相似 当我们度过困难时期时 肯定做得很好 I mean, I may myself, of course, and and and Mark Rich, you know, if you're, if you're getting results similar to us, as us through difficult periods, are definitely doing really well.
当然 我做这个已经40年了 而马克斯现在做这个 Of course, I've been doing this for 40 years, that Marks been doing this for now.
12或13年 关于D-G-I-I的问题 你提到过 如果它停留在内部并向上移动 它可以被视为一种选择 Twelve or 13 years. Question on the D-G-I-I, you mentioned, if it stays inside and moves up, it could be considered as a by option.
问题是 这是指在当日的基础上 当天或第二天 当它移出 The the question is, is that meaning on an intraday basis, that day or the next day, when it moves out?
我说的是今天 你知道的 今天 Well, I was talking about today, you know, today.
所以我可以给你们 我可以 我可以把我想看到的画在这里 So I can give you, I can, I can draw you in here what I would have liked to see.
我想让圣诞老人像这样进去 I would like to Santa go inside like that.
甚至可以说今天它停留在室内 非常紧张的一天 然后第二天它开始在室内 And maybe even let us say today it stays inside, real tight day, and then the next day it starts off inside.
希望从那开始 让我们重新开始吧 Hope start about that. Let's get start done again.
嗯 它从范围内开始 然后穿过 Um. And it starts inside the range, and then comes through.
现在你又有了一点退步 我现在就买你的了 And now you've got that little pullback by and I'll be buying there now.
即使是今天 如果今天它只是 你知道 安静地打开 呆在里面 然后升起来 Even to day, if today it just, you know, opened up nice and quiet, stayed inside and then came above.
前一天是高点 甚至是前天是周四高点 The previous day is high, and or even the the day before that, a thursday's high.
你知道 这是 这是一个骨化的回调 你知道 就在那里买 You know, that's, that's a bonified pullback by, you know, to to buy right there.
然后 你知道 你可以在20天内使用这个 就在这里 当你停下来的时候 如果你真的很紧 或者你可以让它下来到这里的底部 你必须测量它 And then, you know, you could use this below here in the 20 day, right here, as you stop, if you're really tight, or you can let it go come over down to the base here, you'd have to measure it.
我们来看看会是什么 Let's see what that would be.
我只会在这里写大约是11%但是是1011% I would come an only down here is about 11 %, but 1011 percent.
这有点过分了 也许你要做的是停在这一半 又一次 So that's a little excessive. So maybe what you do is you stop out half here, oops, again.
我要拿这个工具 嗯 放大 I gotta get this tool. Um, zoom.
总是挡着我 你知道 也许你止于这里的一半以下 你止于这里的一半以下 现在你会得到一个介于两者之间的平均价格 Always blocks me. Um, you know, maybe you stop out below here half, and you stop out below here half, and now you're gonna get an average price in between.
这会给你一个 你知道的 相当合理的停留 And that's gonna give you, you know, a pretty reasonable stop.
但是 你看 我们在这里变易挥发了 你知道 我们从这里开口 现在我们取出了最低的 But, you see, we we got volatile here, you know, we opened down here, and now we took out the lowest.
现在 这仍然是一个基数 但是这里有一点波动这表明有一些供应 Now, this is, this still is looking it's in a base um, but that's a little bit of volatility there that shows there's some supply.
还有 你知道 我们现在可能还需要再做点工作 And, uh, you know, we might need a little more work here now.
这种情况正在全面发生 我们看到一只又一只股票 And this is happening across the board, and we're seeing stock after stock.
这就是市场是否健康的原因 So this is how you know the market's healthy.
当市场非常健康 准备好了 股票就会开始那些表现良好的股票 领导者表现得很好 他们在Q上爆发 一切都开始有条不紊地发生 When the market's really healthy and ready to go, the stocks just start the stocks that are holding up well, and the leaders behave really well, and they break out on Q, everything just starts happening in perfect order.
交易真的很简单 你知道 这就是我们所说的轻松的 更高的环境 And trading is really easy. You know, that's what we call an easy, taller environment.
嗯 但是 当你开始出现那些大起大落的动作 你压低了低点 你看到了这种波动 你还没有准备好 Um? But when you start getting those that whipsaw action, and you undercut the lows, and you get this volatility, you're still not ready.
你知道 市场只是没有 你知道 我称之为价格准备 You know, the market's just not, you know, I call it price ready.
你可以是基本面的 甚至一个公司 一个公司 可以是基本面健全的 You can be fundamental, even a company, a company, could be fundamentally sound.
所以基本原理是存在的 他们做得很好 So the fundamentals are there. They're doing great.
他们赚了很多钱 They're making a lot of money.
他们的收入很高 利润也很高 Their earnings are great, the margins are greatly a great management.
但股票还没准备好价格 也就是说 But the stock is not price ready, which means
这些供应并没有停止向他们的卖家销售 that this supply just hasn't stopped coming to market their sellers.
无论什么 For whatever
原因 也许它已经打折了很多 所以它需要经过一些纠正活动 reason, Maybe it it's discounted a lot already, so it needs to go through some corrective activity activity.
一旦定价好了 这就是你想要的 So once it gets priced ready, now that's what you're looking for.
你在寻找基本面 但总是在等待 直到它的价格就绪 You're looking for the fundamentals, but then always waiting until it's price ready.
因为时间就是金钱 你希望能够 呃 把这些钱复利 你不想坐在那里 当然是一只正在下跌的股票 但即使是一只横盘下跌的股票 它也会花费你的钱 因为它会花费你的时间 你可以把钱放在其他正在移动的地方 这是重要的部分 Because time is money, and you want to be able to, uh, compound that money, and you don't want to be sitting around with, well, certainly a stock that's going down, but even a stock that's going sideways, it's costing you money, because it's costing you time, where you can be putting that money somewhere else that's moving, and that's the important part.
凯文问你能不能把F-W-O-N-A调出来 对不起 我主要是F-W-O-N-A-f-w-o-o-n-k调出来哦 如果你能数一下你的贡献 F-W-O-N-K也是 两项 Kevin is asking if you could pull up F-W-O-N-A, I'm sorry, I mostly F-W-O-N-A-F-W-O oh a, if you can just count your contributs, F-W-O-N-K also, two of them.
那么这个呢 他想让你数一下收缩的次数 So what about this? He wants to have you count the contractions of this tightening.
好吧 我们真的没有 让我们看看 让我们在右边测量一下 首先 大约是11%或12% Well, we don't really have, let's see, let's measure this right side here, 1st of all, that's about eleven or 12 %.
所以我们并没有收缩得非常紧 你可以看到 这不是我们想要看到的轮廓 So we haven't really contracted super tight And you can see this is, this is not the profile we want to see.
如果你现在运行模型 你会看到大量的宕机日和更新 If you ran model it right now, you'd see lots of down days versus updates.
你会看到一些糟糕的衣服 或者低于移动平均线 低于每天200 这里有很多违规 You'd see some bad clothes. Or below the moving averages, below the 200 a day, you you have a lot of violations right here.
你可以看到这里都是反转 And you can see there's all reversals right here.
所以这离我想买的地方远着呢 So this is nowhere, near where I would, you know, where I would want to buy this.
嗯 这是在没有手表的情况下 Um, it's something that would be on watchless.
它甚至都不在甲板上 It wouldn't be even on deck.
但是如果你要数它们 嗯 你要从这里开始数 这是你的第一个 So, but if you're going to count them, um, then you would count from here, this would be your 1st right here.
大约下降了22% That's about a 22 %, uh, decline.
然后我们从这里测量到这里 大约是10或11 And then we would measure from here to here, that's about ten or eleven.
这也都是关于10或11的 This is all also about ten or eleven.
所以我们把这个当作2 现在我们需要的是让它再紧一点 也许紧一点 你知道 5%或6% 谁知道呢 甚至可能只有几个百分点 So we would use this as two And now what we would need is maybe for it to tighten up a bit more, maybe tightens up, you know, five or 6 %, and who knows, maybe even just a couple percent.
然后我们开始成长为VCP And then we start growing into that VCP.
紧端结束得越多 关键是 真正的关键之一是它开始在有供应的区域周围收紧 And the more that tight ends end, the key, and one of the real keys is that it it starts to tighten up around this area where you've got the supply.
现在 如果它是低作弊者 便宜 它可能在这里 Now, if it's a low cheater, cheap, it could be down here.
你知道 你总是 只要你有一个低作弊或作弊 你就会遇到一些供应 And that's, you know, you're always, whenever you have a low cheat or cheat, you're gonna be running into some supply.
它可能在很远很远的地方 也可能就在附近 It could be way back, it could be nearby.
这就是你需要确定的地方 And that's where you have to ascertain that.
但这仍然需要改进 这就是我计算的方法 But the still needs work. So that's how I would count.
我会把这个算作2 I would count this as a two.
嗯 再一次 这里有一个拉力 但是如果这个拉力比这个宽 那么这就是你的两个 Um, again, you have this pull back here, but if this pull back is wider than this one, then this would be your two.
但你知道的 别谈这个 But don't get into that, you know.
你不担心吗 我的意思是 关键是它从左到右收紧 最右边是你的titus点 嗯 它在个位数范围内 Don't you worried about that? I mean, the key is that it's tightening up from left to right, and the very right is your titus point, um, and it's within that single digit range.
这就是你想要的最佳结果 That's what you're looking for optimally.
好 下一个问题来自奥斯卡 他是新成员 Okay, next question from Oscar, who's a new member.
很高兴认识你 问她 嗯 他是一个喜剧演员 他很高兴看到很多名字 他也找到了同样的名字 出现在这里的焦点列表上 Nice to meet you. Ask her, um, he's a comedy that he's happy seen a lot of the name, same names he found as well, appeared on the focus list here.
他的问题是关于S-T-N-G的 对吧 His question is about S-T-N-G, right?
我们在周末学习课上提到过 你知道 上周的重点是六 但这里有点重 We mentioned in the weekend study sessions, um, you know, resigned to the focus list last week on the six, but then a little heavy here.
你知道 这是市场的方式 You know, it's the market's way on a bit.
它试图从这里出来 但市场似乎在权衡 现在你已经有了一个 两个 三个更低的低点 It tried to come out here, but the market seems to be weighing now you've got yourself one, two, three, lower lows.
你还没有衣服可以送去靶场 You don't have a clothes yet for dropping up around the range.
如果它在这里 我的意思是 你可以试着把它拉回来 If this holds up here, I mean, you could try to pull back by.
这是一种情况 嗯 你知道 如果市场真的很好 也许你只有3% 5% 6%的正常回调在上涨的市场 在牛市中 This is the kind of situation that, um, you know, if the market was really good, and maybe you had just a three, five, 6% normal pull back in the market in an uptread, in a bull market.
你知道 当它随着市场回落 然后在这个市场开始回升时 我就会买它 You know, I'd be looking to to buy this as it pulls back a bit with the market, and then starts turning up in this market.
你必须小心 你知道 你必须小心购买这些回拉买入和购买股票 除非他们真的表现出压力 他们表现得很完美 因为即使是 即使股票表现得很好 你知道 也会给你一段艰难的时间 You got to be careful, you know, you got to be careful buying these pull back buys and buying stocks that unless they're really showing strains, and they're acting perfect, because even the, even the stocks are acting good, you know, are are going to give you a hard time.
到目前为止 这是相对正常的 So, but so far, this is acting relatively normal.
但是我不确定你的问题是 你知道 我是否会在这里买但这是一个 如果它是紧绷的 今天有一件好衣服 我可能会在阿勒那里穿上 Um, but I'm not sure if your question is, you know, if I would buy it here or but this is one that, if it was to to tighten up here and have a good clothes today, I might put it on by Aler there.
此外 油轮中也有一些波动 它看起来像一个领先的集团 但结果是 我认为它开始看起来像一个领导者 但最终表现得像一个周期性的集团 Also, there has some been some volatility in the tankers, and a sort of fragment that it was looking like a leading group, but it turned out to be where I think it It started looking like a leader, but it ended up acting like a cyclical the group.
我不知道是哪个 你怎么看 I don't know which. What do you think?
马克 你注意到这个小组的活动了吗 Mark, have you been paying attention to the action in this group?
前段时间 我们在看一些名字 然后他们就崩溃了 In a while back, we were looking at some names, and then they kind of fell apart.
但我想还是有一些名字还站得住 But I guess there's still some names that are holding up.
你对那些油罐车有什么看法吗 Do you have any, uh, insight of the for the tankers?
棘手是一个词 Tricky would be the one word.
是的 看到了 这种事情 你知道 如果它是一个 是的 有这种周期性的技巧 你知道 有时最好的外观 甚至是周期性的技术入口点 每个人都在看着它们 然后它们就不那么好了 Yeah, see. And kind of thing, you know, if it's a, yeah, has that cyclical trickiness in terms of, you know, sometimes the best looking, even technical entry points in the cyclicals, everybody's watching em, and then they don't work as well.
嗯 Um,
我发现 你知道 即使是这样一个名字 我实际上更倾向于购买它 甚至可能通过回调 你知道 就像你刚刚描述的 如果你想参与进来 where I've found, you know, even a name like this, I would actually be more apt to buy it, maybe even through a pullback by, you know, like you just described here, if you want to get involved.
因为我认为它不是 也许它不是在很多人的雷达上 但是 是的 我认为周期 我们会有那种 你知道 我们有这种回归交易 你知道 当我们之前反弹时 石油有点顶 那些东西都被抛售了 Because I think it's not, maybe it's not as on many people's radar, but yeah, I think the cyclicals either, we're going to have that, you know, we've had this sort of reversion trade, where you pointed this out perfectly earlier, you know, when we rally before, then oil kind of top and those things sold off.
具有讽刺意味的是 这是一种防御性交易 当石油处于防御性时 这可能对经济不利 So it sort of this has been the defensive trade, ironically, which probably doesn't vote well for the economy when oil is defensive.
但是 你知道 尽管如此 我 我在看他们 但是 除非他们看起来非常非常教科书 否则我可能不会交易他们 Uh, but, you know, nevertheless, I-I don't, I'm, I'm watching them, but, uh, probably not gonna be trading them unless they they look really, really textbook.
是的 你看 XOL也是 你知道 它试图建立右边这是能量区域 Yes, see, XOL too. You know, it's trying to build this right side there's the energy area.
而你今天刚刚跌破了低点 And you just undercut the lows here today.
所以我喜欢低腰 但我不想成为它的一部分 So I love the undercut, but I wouldn't want to be part of it.
我也不想在这里拥有它 但我喜欢这种廉价的 And I wouldn't want to own it here, but I like this undercut.
现在 如果我们可以回到上面 收紧 你知道 这可能是 你知道 我只是画一些快速的关心 但也许我们回到这里 然后我们开始在这里建立这个右边 And now, if we can come back up and tighten up, you know, this might be something that, you know, I'm just gonna drawing some quick care, but maybe we come back up here, and then we start building this right side over here.
如果从那里开始 这开始变得有趣 因为现在 你知道 我们有了这个小双底 我们摆脱了低点 And if then from there, this starts to get interesting, because now, you know, we've got this little double bottom we shook out the low.
我们可以在这里收紧 现在你真的建立了一个很好的 大的基础 We can tighten up here. Now you really build on a nice, big base.
因为我看到了很多能量 Because I see a lot of uh energy.
我知道我在这里离题了 但我看到很多石油股票都有良好的基础 其中一些甚至有非常紧密的轴心 I know I'm digressing here, but I see a lot of uh oil stocks that have good sized bases, and some of them even have some pretty tight pivots.
所以我看着这个 这个 这个区域 So I am watching this, this, this area here.
但是如果你但是我想让你看的是从这里看 右边 But if you but the thing I want you to look at is look at this from right here, this right side.
然后我们回头看看我是在哪里买的 And then let's go back and look at where I was buying it.
这是我最初买的地方 This where I was buying it originally.
看看你有多棒多紧 Look look at how nice and tight you got.
一个完美的便宜的地方 然后看 看这个动作 A perfect little cheap area. And then look at, look at the action.
看看它是怎么出来的 Look how it it breaks out.
并通过操作来查看文件 And look at the file through action.
你看 它是如此高效 You see it's just so efficient.
这就是你要找的 And that's what you're looking for.
体积太大的标志 The volume that are too mark.
我要指出的是 这里的体积最小 就在这张纸上 Just to point that out, you know, the lowest volume there, right into that little sheet.
然后你就会 你知道 这真的很不一样 And then you get, you know, yeah, it's really different.
一拳两拳 对 一拳两拳 One two punch. Yeah, the one two punch.
然而 我们谈论的是大师程序 在这个程序中 你有音量 音量枯竭了 然后它在分手时出现 这就是你的音量 Yet that we talk about the Mastrator program, where you have the volume, the volume dries up, and then it comes in on the breakup, and there's your volume.
你知道 我们有一个关于体积的问题 体积确实在这里 然后你会看到 有这个高体积反转 You know, we had a question about volume, the volume did come in here, and then you got to see, got this high volume reversal.
但现在 这很正常 But now that that's, that's normal.
这是最初运行的一些利润 That's some profit taking on that initial run.
但是这种行为非常 非常 无效定价和有效的价格行为 But this acting very, very, you know, inefficiently priced and efficient price action.
结果 现在你有点 你有点晚了 As a result. Now you're getting a bit, you're getting a little later here.
你知道 这种交易已经不再是秘密了 And you know, that trade is not a secret anymore.
你有波动性 你有之前上涨的利润 You got the volatility, you got the profit taken from the previous run up.
现在你需要更多的时间把右边画出来 Now you need more time to to put up the right side here.
所以 我知道 我去了油轮 去了石油 所以我只想谈谈周期性和周期性股票 你知道 在自然界中 对吧 So, I know, I went off to tankers and went out to the oil, so I just wanted to talk about cyclical and cyclical stocks, you know, in nature, right?
丹尼尔斯问 你在训练日使用什么扫描设置膝盖信号 Daniels asking, what scan settings do you use a knee signal during your training day?
我根本不用信号扫描 I-I don't scan with the signal at all.
所有的 嗯 信号所做的就是保持我的 我的开放位置 呃 内窥镜 然后是我的 我的 我的观察名单 我的 我的 我的甲板名单 我的 我的 我的重点名单 All that all, um, a signal does is just keep my, my open positions, uh, the endocies, and then my, my, my watch list, my, uh, watch list, my on deck list, my, my focus list, um.
然后我把它们往上移动直到买止损点 And then I'll just move them up up the hierarchy until it gets to buy stops.
然后我在那里放了提醒 And then I put alerts in there.
我有会弹出的音频和视频提醒 I have, I have audio and visual alerts that will pop up.
当我在这里设置警报时 它会 嗯我看看 是的 这是之前设置的警报 When I put an alert in there, it will, um me see if, yes, this is an alert right here that was set from before.
它会显示警报的位置如果我把警报放在这里 It'll actually show where the alert is if I put the alert right here.
我不知道你们听到了没有 就是这样 I don't know if you guys heard that, but there you go.
你看 它会眨一下 然后给它一个音频 让我知道 You see, it blinks, and it gives it an audio and it lets me know.
这就是我用它的主要目的 So that that's what I mainly use that for.
我的筛选是史密斯做市场 然后我完成交易不同 不同的平台 不 这样直接到经纪平台 My screening is done market smith, and then my my trading is done in a different, a different platform, not on it, just so straight to the brokerage platform.
雷蒙德正在分享他的一些数据 Okay, raymond is sharing some of his statistics.
基本上 他的问题是 他的经验是 他很好地想象了自己的损失 迅速地保持损失以止损 Uh, basically his question is, his experience is he's imagine his losses very well, keeping his losses very quick to cut his losses.
但他无法从波动交易中获得太多好处 But he's not able to get much upside on swing trading.
五月的交易在很少的未平仓利润后 他们的违规行为会迅速下降 May trades get their violations drop quickly after a very little open profit.
所以他现在坐以待毙 等待改善 So he's sitting on now, waiting for improvements.
基本上 他的问题是关于他的数据今年下降了5% 平均身体29% 对吗 Basically, his question was to have share any comments about his stats being down 5% on the year, with the 29% body average, right?
好吧 你有70%的交易阻止你退出 你在市场上下跌了5% Well, okay, so you so you you're have 70% of your trades stopping you out, and you're down 5% in a market.
看 看 看 看这张图表 Look at look at the Look at this chart.
这是在一个空市中 我们正从低点开始交易 This in a bare market that we're trading right off the lows.
我是说 这太棒了 你知道的 I mean, that's magnificent. You know.
所以大多数人 我可以向你保证 普通投资者都被残酷地击倒在地 So most people, I can assure you that the average investor is brutally pumbled into the ground.
好吧 甚至在这个绝望的市场之前 在指数中 它们已经被大幅削减 在平均股票中也是如此 Okay? Even prior to this despair market, in the indexes, they were already being decimated, and in the average stock
在纳斯达克下跌之前 股票已经下跌了405060% stocks were down 4050, 60% before we even got down in the Nasdaq.
呃 不同意 所以 Uh, to disagree. So,
嗯 我向你保证 这已经造成了巨大的损失 90%的投资者都资不抵债 um, I assure you that there has been tremendous damage done across the board, and 90% of investors are underwater.
所以你是在一个非常精英的群体里 So you are in a very elite group.
如果你在熊市中损失了个位数 那正是你想要达到的目标 If your single digit losses in a bear market, that's exactly what you're trying to achieve.
你不是想在地下赚大钱 You're not trying to make big money in the ground.
如果你能在啤酒市场赚大钱 那就太好了 If you can make big money in the beer market, that's great.
你知道的 如果是短期设置 你知道 也许有一些肺是工作的 高经常命名 但目标是生存 你知道 You know. If there's short setups, you know, maybe there's some lungs that are working, and the high often names, but the the goal is survival, you know.
这是通过它 保持你的筹码完好无损 所以当市场好转时 你可以从低点开始投资 或者从右边开始投资 And it's getting through it and keeping your chips intact, so then when the market turns around, you're there to to get invested right off the lows, or right off the up that right side.
你在复利钱 而不是犯错误 And you're compounding money, not mistakes.
你不算数 你不是所有人 你知道 挖出25%或30%或更多的洞 You're not count you're not all, you know, digging out of a 25 or 30% or greater hole.
你们是领导者 所有你在上涨市场中做得很好的股票在你开始赚钱之前就把你带回来了 And you're the leaders. And all the stocks that you do so well in the up market are just getting you back to even before you even start making any money.
这是关键 复合 复利是关键 That's the key. Compounding. Compounding's the key.
所以你做得很好 这就是你应该预料到的 在一个艰难的市场中 在一个空旷的市场中 25-35%的平均击球率 So your is doing great. That's what you you should expect, the 25 to 35% batting average in a in a tough market, at a bare market.
但如果你能很好地管理风险与回报的关系 你就能做到收支平衡 只有一个很小的下降 But if you manage the risk reward relationship well, then you'll break even to have a very, a small downside drawdown.
如果你保持低暴露 它会更小 And if you're keeping your exposure low, it'll be even smaller.
这就是为什么这是在一个空市场中生存的三个组成部分 And that's why those are the three components of, you know, of surviving a bare market.
亚当买了A-L-T 8月10日 是的 我们看了一下 Adam purchased A-L-T, yeah. On august 10, yeah, we we looked at that.
我演过几次 那很棘手 I was in that a couple of times, and that was tricky.
当然 8月10日就在这里 August 10 is right here, of course.
嗯 在接下来的三周里 他坚持用自己的力量卖出 即使在9月14日下跌之后 他仍然能够获利20% Um. He persistently was selling over the next three weeks in his strength, even after the drop on september 14, he was still able to take a 20% profit.
考虑到股票的表现 Given the way the stock was acting.
他玩这个是为了一场超级表演 被风险模型困住了 就像他们玩错了骑士吗 He was playing this for a super performance, Stuck with the risk models, uh, as they are with Was this the wrong knights?
那是天堂吗 我是不是太贪心了 That the heaven? Was I just being too greedy?
我认为错误的想法说 我不认为这是错误的想法说 这是你做出的决定 I thought the wrong mind said, I don't think it was The wrong mind said it was, that was the decision you make.
你做了 你我是说 你得做个决定 You made, you know, you I mean, you have to make a decision.
我要在这里做大动作吗 Am I going for a big move here?
听着 如果你要大招 我我也让马克来回答这个问题 Look, if you're gonna go for a big move, I'll and I'll let, uh, I'll let Mark answer this too.
如果你要做大动作 你要找 呃 你知道 呃 市场上最好的名字 而不是领导者 If you're gonna go for a big move, and you're gonna go for the, uh, you know, uh, the best names in the market than the leaders.
然而 这些有权力的人 你知道 可以给你这些 And yet, these power players are the ones that, you know, can give you that.
我的意思是 你确实在附近的某个地方 你知道 在短时间内 有70%到80%的利润 所以这是一个 这是一个相当大的利润 嗯 I mean, you did have a somewhere in a neighborhood of a, you know, 70, 80% profit a short period of time, so that that is a, that's a pretty big profit, um.
但我认为这对每个人来说都是一个教训 你知道 他经历了这次衰退 仍然赚了20% But I think the lesson in this for everybody is that, you know, he went through this decline here and still made 20 %.
原因是什么 为什么 因为他是向外扩展的 因为他是增量的 它不会变得贪婪 What is the reason? Why? Because he scaled out, because he was incremental, and it didn't get greedy.
或者孤注一掷 And doing all or nothing bets.
随着股价上涨 他开始 他开始减持股票获利 在缓冲期间 这一打击来了 As the stock moved up, he started, he started scaling out of it took some profits, and in that cushion, this blow that came.
所以他还是赚了不少钱 So he still made a decent profit.
但这是另一个教训 另一个教训是 这就是为什么销售实力是如此重要 But here's the other lesson. The other lesson is is that this is why selling the strength is so is so important.
因为当你出卖自己的力量时 有时你知道你会变得更好 Because when you sell into strength, sometimes you know you're you would have been better off.
你在这里买 就会爆发 第一天就卖 好吗 You buy here, breaking out. You sell it on day one, okay?
或者是第二天 就像你说的 你在10号买进 哦 我说的是11号 我记得是11号 所以11号 你在12号卖出 有一天反弹 你会有两倍的收益 你会节省一个半月的时间 Or the day two. As you say, you bought it on the on the ten, oh, me said 11th, where I think it was the 11th, so the 11th, you sell it on the 12th, one day a rally, you would have had double what you made going through, and you would have saved a month and a half of time.
你看 这就是为什么 如果你给一只股票一个破发的机会 会发生什么 它会回馈很多 你最好早点卖掉它 在强势卖出 You see, this is why, if you give a stock a chance to break, what happens is it gives back so much that you would have been better off selling it way, way earlier and just selling at the strength.
这就是为什么推销自己的力量如此强大 That's why selling the strength is so powerful.
但要想下大招 你必须这么做 But to play it for a big move, you have to do that.
你将不得不经历一些回调 你将不得不冒这个险 You're going to have to go through some pullbacks, and you're going to have to risk that.
唯一的 我认为唯一的错误是 你知道 我们没有真正的市场 And, um, the only, I think the only mistake, is is that, you know, we don't really have the market.
我们没有真正的股票向我们展示它们表现良好 We don't really have stocks showing us that there acting well.
所以现在等待更大的动作绝对是在大海捞针 So holding for a bigger move right now is definitely trying to find the needle in the haystack.
我不知道该怎么办 你认为 作为一个货币教练 我会给这个a 如果有人给我发这个 看 我在尝试玩a-a股票以获得更大的波动 这就是我使用的策略 I don't know what do. What do you think were, you know, look as if, as a coin instructor, I would give this an a, you know, if somebody was to send me that, look, I was trying to play A-A stock for a bigger move, and these were the tactics I used.
我会给你A+ I'd give you an A plus.
你花钱买了决赛 你花钱买了最后一块 为更大的动作做准备 你使用了50天的追踪 你仍然得到了一个赢家 You paid for the fina, you financed the ability to hold that last piece for a bigger move, and you used the sort of 50 day trail, and you still came out with a winner.
就马克的观点而言 即使在一个非常糟糕的差距之后 你是怎么做到的 To mark's point, even after a pretty nasty gap down, well, how did you do that?
通过销售这种力量的部分 By selling portions in this strength.
现在 按照马克的观点 你会有一个更平滑的权益曲线 Now, to mark's point, you would have a smoother equity curve.
你刚刚把所有东西都卖了 You just sold the whole thing.
但那不是你的目标 你的目标是尝试和筹集资金 为更大的行动保持这个名字 But that wasn't your goal. Your goal was to try and finance the ability to hold the name for a much bigger move.
干得好 这将是 你知道 我唯一能给出的批评 我只是在另一个屏幕上看了一下 你知道 没有收益 没有销售 So well done. That would be, you know, the only critique I could give, I just looked at this on another screen, you know, there was no earnings, no sales.
这就是生物技术 对吧 所以通常没有渴望或销售 Now, this is biotech, uh? So there's often not yearnings or sales.
但是 你知道 在早期阶段真的试图把他们放在他们的巨人和移动 那就是你听 尤里卡 就像 哦 近听大卫·瑞恩 But, you know, in the early stages of really trying to place them for their that Gargantu and move and that's where you listen to, eureka is like, oh, near listen to David Ryan.
他们会希望看到至少有一些盈利或销售额摆在桌面上 They're going to want to see at least some earnings or sales on the table.
但无论如何 就技术而言 我认为他做得很好 But either way, as far as the technicals, I think he did a great job.
这是一部教科书式的戏剧 This is a textbook play,
这是马克·里奇的经典剧作 and it's a textbook Mark Richie play.
马克就是这么玩的 And this is exactly how Mark would play this.
你知道 他会卖出一点 然后他会采取更大的行动 You know, he'd sell a little bit, and then he'd pulled for a bigger move.
这种事情在我身上发生过很多次 所以我们也发生过 And I've had this type of thing happen to me many times, so we've had it happen.
是的 我已经经历过几百次了 所以可能还不止几千次 Yeah, I've had it happen hundreds of times, so it probably more thousands of times.
所以 是的 但是是的 我想说 你知道 这真的是一个教科书式的表演 一个更大的动作的教科书式的表演 So, yeah, but yeah, I would say it's, you know, it's really a textbook play a textbook for a bigger move.
好了 迈克尔要问第一个关于史密斯市场的问题 Okay, michael is asking a 1st question on market Smith.
他问的是 底部是税前或税后毛利 He is asking, at the bottom, there's gross pre or after tax margins.
你在看哪一个 为什么 Which one are you looking at, and why?
是的 一般来说 我会看 呃 毛利率 然后如果我想深入挖掘 我可以看 你知道 净利润率 看看到底是什么 你知道 绝对底线 Yeah, I generally, I'll look at the, um, the gross margins, and then if I want to dig in deeper, and I can look at, you know, net margins and see what exactly, you know, is going to the absolute bottom line.
但是边际会有点 嗯 有点一起移动 But margins are gonna sort of be, um, kind of go moved sort of together.
虽然百分比会有所不同 但显然净利润率会小于毛利率 And although the percentage will be different, obviously the net margins will be smaller than the gross margins.
所以 嗯 但是 是的 这是我在挖掘的东西 So, um. But yeah, that's something where I'm digging.
这是我开始深入研究的时候 That's when I start digging in a little bit deeper.
你知道 如果我首先 当我看股票的时候 我会看图表 看趋势的相对强弱 然后我会看收益 You know, if I 1st, when I'm looking at the stock, I'm looking at the chart, the relative strength the trend, then I take a look at the earnings.
嗯 我会看一下它所在的组 最重要的是看它属于哪个类别 Um, I take a look at the group it's in, that's the most important thing is to see what category.
然后这让我决定 你知道 如果什么边缘变得重要 And then that lets me decide, you know, if if the margins of what like becomes of importance.
这么说吧 我看到了 你知道 我看到了收益增长 但收入持平 利润在扩大 So let's just say, I see, you know, I-I see earnings um growth, but the revenues flat and the margins are expanding.
所以这就自动告诉我他们在削减成本 他们在提高生产力 他们在做一些事情 你知道 也许读一些亏损的操作 他们没有增长收入 So that automatically just tells me that they're cutting costs, they're having productivity enhancements, they're um doing things that are, you know, maybe reading some losing operations, they're not growing the top line.
这是有限的寿命 那么我知道这更像是一种可交易的情况 That's a limited life span, then I know that's more of a tradeable situation.
这不是真正的投资 因为除非他们开始获得收入 然后我开始展望收入估计 看看他们是如何获得收入的 你需要收入 我知道 That's not really investable, because unless they start getting the revenue, and then I start looking forward at revenue estimates and see what they're doing to get revenue going, You need revenue, I know.
再一次 就像一个生物技术公司 我可能没有收入 没有收益 什么都不知道 但这只股票的交易是基于某种轰动的突破性药物的前景 它将带来数十亿美元的收入 80%的利润率 And and again, even like a biotech, don't may I have no revenue, no earnings, know nothing, but that stock is trading on the prospects of some blockbuster, breakthrough drug that's going to bring in billions in revenue at an 80% profit margin.
这就是为什么 你知道 生物技术的贴现 So that's why, you know, it's discounting that forward with biotechs.
所以这一切都归结于收入边际和利润 So it all comes down to the revenue margins and earnings.
再说一次 如果 你知道 我通常会看一下毛利率 然后 你知道 如果我想深入挖掘 或者我也会看一下利润率 And again, if, you know, I would look at the gross margins usually, and then, you know, if I want to dig deep, or I'll take a look at that margins as well.
他的问题是 如果他想短期交易 而不是通过自然反应持有 他应该以固定百分比的收益为目标 还是最佳的子点是什么 His foul question is, if he wants to trade more shorter term and not hold through natural reaction, should he be aiming for a fixed percentage gain, or what is the optimal sub point?
是的 如果你打算出售 如果你根本不打算坚持任何自然反应 你知道吗 Yeah, if you're going to sell, if you're not going to hold through any natural reaction at all, you know what?
你只是想 你懂的 卖出去 You want to just, you know, sell.
你要拿你知道的 你能得到的 你知道 得到 You got to take what you know, what you can get, you know, get.
是的 这是底线 你知道 这真的只是在得到好的时候离开 拿走你能得到的 嗯 当股票得到 你知道 短期延长 Yeah, that's the bottom line. You know, it's really just getting out when the getting is good, taking what you can get, um, and when the stock gets, you know, short term extended.
嗯 我们可以继续 可能会聊上几个小时 UM So, we can go on, probably talk about that for hours.
呃 但是 你知道的 推销实力是最重要的 Uh? But, you know, selling into strength is of the utmost importance.
如果你不打算进行自然反应 你就要卖出 你就要 你要在突破的第一步卖出 If you're not going to go through a natural reaction and you're going to sell, and you're going, you're going to, you sell into the 1st move of the breakout.
你绝对要卖到强势 You want to absolutely be selling into strength.
当你像那样抛售时 这几乎无关紧要 When you sell into strength like that, it almost doesn't matter.
你知道你必须这么做 但事实并非如此 You know that you have to, it doesn't.
你不需要非常精确 因为你只是在第一个动作中从柠檬中得到最多的汁水 第一个 第2天 第3天 第4天 不管怎样 5天 有时更多一点 在你得到回拉之前 You don't need to be pinpoint accurate, because you're just getting, like, the most juice out of the lemon in that 1st move, the 1st, two, three, four, whatever, five days, sometimes a little bit more, before you get that pull back.
你不会想要做回拉 You don't want to go through the pull back.
你想在高位卖出这样你的权益曲线就不会穿过你的账户 不会出现任何下降 You want to be selling at the high so your equity curve doesn't doesn't go through your account, doesn't go through any draw down.
这是关键 所以你一直在固定这些利润 然后把它转到其他地方 That's the key. So you're constantly nailing, just nailing those down, those profits, and then rotating it to something else.
我会 我会 你知道 我建议你不要永远这样做 I would, I would, you know, I advise that you don't do that forever.
我是说 你可以 你当然可以 I mean, you could, you certainly could.
你可以赚大钱 你可以 你知道 做很多营业额 And you can make a fortune, and you can just, you know, do a lot of turnover.
但有时 你知道 你会 市场真的很好 你在牛市 股票会有很大很大的波动 而你可能没有新的商品可以交易 But there's going to be times where, you know, you're gonna be, the market's really good, you're in a bull market, and stocks are gonna make big, big moves, while you might not have new merchandise to trade into.
就像我常说的 有时候最好的袜子就是你已经拥有的那只 这意味着你只需要持有你已经拥有的那只 或者你甚至可以增加它 And like I always say, sometimes the best stocking of buy is the one you already own, which means you just hold the one you have, or you even add to it.
这可能是一个很好的开始 So that's probably a good way to start.
然后 你知道 你可能还想学习如何切换到有点红色的齿轮 And then, you know, you also probably want to learn how to switch gears a little bit red.
买了M-V-O玛丽呢 是的 Bought M-V-O And is Mary? Yep.
于是他给股票上了油 是的 这是 这是一个很好的例子 你知道 卖到第一步向上 So he oil Stock. Yep. This is, and here's a perfect example of, you know, selling into the 1st move up.
现在 你知道这个吗 Now, here you go where, you know this?
这只是直接运行 砰 砰 砰 四天 当他们进入良好状态时出来 然后看看它是如何断裂的 This just runs straight up, bang, bang, bang, four days, get out when they get into good and then see how it breaks.
如果你给了它破裂的机会 有一天 砰的一声 一切都消失了 Say, if you give it that chance to break, you know, one day, bang, everything's gone.
但是请继续 罗杰的问题 是的 But go ahead. Roger question. Yeah.
他在12日买了 7%止损 So he bought it on the 12th, yep, with a 7% stop.
两天后 14号卖出25% 第二天15号卖出50% 都是平均损失的两倍 只是1倍的止损 He sold 25% two days later when the 14th, and it sold 50% on the next day, the 15th, both at two times as average loss, but just at one times my stop.
他这么做是因为这个市场的性质 So he did that because of the nature of this market.
就我的整体表现而言 你认为这是一个合适的策略吗 我总是追求在特定的东西上承担风险的倍数 Would you consider that a proper strategy in terms of my overall performance, which I always pursuing multiple the risk I took on the specific stuff?
所以 这是个很好的问题 I So, that's, that's a great question.
你知道 我认为这很好 你必须做出判断 你知道 再一次 你认为你能从柠檬中得到多少汁 你知道 市场上有多少柠檬或多汁的柠檬 你知道 You know, I think it's, I think it's fine, you have to make that judgment call as to what, you know, again, how much juice you think you can get out of the lemon and and how much, you know, how many lemons or juicy in the market, you know.
我的意思是 这就是最终的结果 I mean, that's really what it comes down to.
我必须评估一下 你所处的环境是什么样的主题是什么 You I've got to make that assessment of, you know, what kind of environment you are in and what the theme is.
所以在这个特殊的市场 我认为这正是你应该做的 So I in this particular market, I think that's exactly how you should play it.
你看 把它全部卖掉 或者卖掉 你知道 它的好一部分 你知道 也许一半然后一半 You see, the sell all of it, or sell, you know, good portion of it, you know, maybe half and then half.
这样你就不用付75%了 That gets you out of 75 %.
但还有25%的头寸剩余 Yet 25% of the position left over.
你这招是为了下更大的棋 You play that for a bigger move.
你承担风险 如果它不起作用 你仍然可以赚到一些钱 或者你不赚不赔 You finance the risk. If it doesn't work, you still make a little bit money, or you break even.
这是一条很好的中间道路 你知道 要度过这种艰难的环境 That's the a great middle road, you know, to get through this type of tough environment.
你怎么看 马克吗 确定 What do you think? Mark? Sure.
我唯一想问的问题是 他会不会在7%止损时卖掉他的全部头寸 And the only question I would ask is whether, or not, you know, if he was going to sell his entire position at a 7% stop?
嗯 你知道 我通常不喜欢一对一的声音 但我的猜测是 如果他的平均止损比这个低得多 那么他可能有 你知道 我在想我平均损失的几倍 所以 绝对 你知道 把它烧掉 Um, you know, I don't normally like sound stuff at one to one, but my guess is, if his average stop is much lower than that, than he's doing it right, he was probably have, you know, again, I'm thinking of multiples of my average loss, so, absolutely, you know, turn it and burn it in.
这盘带子是唯一起作用的东西 This tape has been the only thing that's really been working.
曼 好吧 马克 你一般是怎么看一出戏的 MHM Okay, mark, how do you typically look at a play?
你在上升的情况下通常是怎么玩的 比如A-Z-P-N How do you typically look to play in ascending situation, like A-Z-P-N?
是的 A-Z-P-N 我看着它 你知道 嗯 这真的只是 再一次 我想如果你看这个图表 它显示 我不知道它是否重组了 但实际上这个图表有更多的内容 Yeah, so, A-Z-P-N? I'm looking at it, you know, um, this is really just, and again, I think if you look at this on this chart, it's showing, I don't know if it restructured, but there is actually more to this chart.
我们我们之前看过这个 We we looked at this while back.
如果我们记得从右边开始 我在找一个可能是作弊的表格 If we remember coming up this right side, I was looking for maybe a cheat the form.
它没有 它正好从右边露出来 It didn't. It just came right up the right side.
现在底部变得更紧了 And now you're getting a little bit tighter base here.
我们在这里测量了大约11% 12% We measure this here soft about 11 %, 12 %.
所以这里真的很紧 So this is getting really tight here.
嗯 右边是非常紧的 Um. And this right side is is exceptionally tight.
所以这个是上升的 我不确定 我认为你所说的上升是因为市场在下跌 而这个是阶梯上升 UM So an ascending this, I I'm not sure I-I think the way you're calling this ascending is because the market's going lower, and this is stair stepped its way higher.
但我不认为这是一种派遣 But I wouldn't really look at this as a sending, you know.
我 我肯定会把它看作是发散的 你知道 你的第一步拉回比前一步要高 这是语义上的 但它超出了市场的表现 I-I would, I would definitely look at this as diverging, you know, where you get this 1st move pull back that's higher than the previous This is semantics, but it is out performing the market.
这是关键 正在创造更高的低点 市场也在创造更低的低点 That's the key. Is making higher lows, markets making lower lows.
我会像评估其他设置一样评估它 只是寻找一个基础 寻找正确的一侧开始收紧 I would assess this just like any other setup, just looking for a base and looking for that right side to start tightening up.
你可以看到这个杆在后面 然后在高点关闭 你知道 体积在这里 You see that you had this pole back, and then you closed up at the high, you know, volume came in here.
我觉得那是三重巫术 对吧 I think that was triple witching, right?
嗯 所以你可能得到了很大的体积 但是 我们现在只是想让它变紧 Um. So you got a lot of volume, maybe, but again, we're just looking for this to tighten now.
你知道吗 如果你能把这里绑紧然后穿过这些可爱的领带 You know, if you can tighten up here and get through this sweet these ties right here.
嗯 那是那是开始时间 在一个好的市场中 如果这个可以收紧 我会非常激进 而这个会在这个市场中突破非常激进 Um, that's that's go time. Well, and again, in a good market, I would be extremely aggressive if this could tighten up and this would break out of be extremely aggressive in this market.
Probino 要么通过 要么做个小动作 Probino. Either pass or take a, uh, take a small position.
我要在这里发送一个警报 I'm going to send an alert here.
在这里 在这个上面 02 2897 我要在这里设置一个警报 我说 你不能在02 28看到整个弹簧 So right here, above this, 02:28 97, I'm just going to set an alert right here, and I go, you can't see the whole spring with 02:28.
当它达到那么高时 我就会收到警报 When it hits that high, I'm just gonna be alerted.
我看到了 在这里画一条线 它也会发出声音警报 And I see that. Put that little line right there, and then it'll set off an audio alert too.
所以现在 如果我不看它 它现在已经最小化了 如果它开始高于今天的高点 我马上就会知道它 So now, if I'm not watching it, and it's minimized now, if it starts to move above today's high, I'll I'll know about it right away.
G问的是 你周末用来创建你的列表的所有市场史密斯列表是什么 G is asking, what are all the Market Smith lists to you run over the weekend to create your by list?
嗯 我运行了一些筛选 但通常 我的意思是 在那里 它是相当基本的 Well, I run a number of screens, but usually, I mean, there, it's pretty basic.
我是说 我刚做了一个市场史密斯·韦伯 我不确定是不是所有人都能买到 I mean, I-I just did a market Smith Webb, and I'm, I not sure if it was available to every to the public.
我想应该是注册 但我不知道你能不能看一下 I think it was to register, but I'm not sure if you can review it.
但是我们谈过 你知道 我如何筛选嗯 当然 大众交易者项目将在11月开始 我们将会有 呃 一个来自市场史密斯的人 通常是阿鲁沙 但我不确定他今年是否会在那里 因为市场史密斯已经被卖掉了 他转移到了自己的资金管理方面 But we talked about, you know, how I screen Um, of course, the mass trader program that's coming up in November, We're going to have, uh, someone from Market Smith, usually is Arusha, but I'm not sure if he's going to be there this year, because Market Smith had gotten sold, and he's moved over the own eel on the money management side.
但是我们会请一位 史密斯市场的人 So, but we're going to have somebody, uh, from Market Smith.
然后我们回顾一下 我们回顾一下市场史密斯 我们讨论如何筛选 And then we go over, we go through Market Smith, we talk about how we screen.
当然 玛格丽特 她今年也会来 我们会深入讨论的 Of course, margaret, she'll be there this year, and we'll get pretty indepth with it.
但就筛选而言 你知道 我正在运行大量紧张的筛选 But as far as screening, you know, I'm running high reels of strained screens.
我在一个空荡荡的市场里奔跑 I'm running in a bare market.
我的跑步线路达到新高 或接近新高 I'm running rs lines hitting new highs, or close to new highs.
你可以看看这个蓝点 You can look at the Blue dot.
呃呃 有一个蓝色的 在MarketSmith里叫做蓝点屏这是一个很好的熊市观察屏 Uh uh? There's a blue it's called the Blue Dot Screen in Market Smith that's a good screen to look at bear markets.
我在运行IPO筛选 我在筛选最近IPO的股票 I'm running the IPO screen, where I-I screen from the stocks that are most recent ipos um.
我看了过去几个月到过去6个月或12个月里所有的IPO And I'm looking at everything that's been an IPO in the last, you know, from last couple of months to to six or twelve months um.
这就像 我称之为面包和黄油的等级 And that that's like the, the sort of, the, I call the bread and butter grades.
现在 我得到了实用屏幕 你知道 马库斯下降了六 八周 我可能运行一个屏幕六周相对强度 可能运行一个自定义屏幕 Now, then I got utility screens, you know, marcus down six, eight weeks, I might run a screen six week relative strength, might run a custom screen.
这在Marketsmith是做不到的 That's not something you can do in Marketsmith.
我有 我有ZAX机构 I-I do have, uh, I got ZAX Institutional.
我还有其他的方法 I have some other ways I can do that.
我做的 你知道 功利的筛选 不是时不时的 但98%的筛选只是筛选高R-S的名字 对它们进行排序 然后浏览它们 然后看看基本原理 你知道 用手 用眼睛 嗯 把它们放在一起 Um And and I do, you know, utilitarian screens from not from time to time, but 98% of my screening is just screening the high R-S names, sorting them and then going through them, and then looking at the fundamentals, you know, by hand, by eye, um, and just putting it altogether.
看到这里引用的数量了吗 伙计们 记住 你在平台上有这个功能 简单的下拉框可以做到这一点 See the number of stuff quotes being dropped in here, guys, remember, you do have the feature right on the platform, the simple drop box to do that.
提醒一下 在某些时候 这是要为标记眼睛做准备的 And as a reminder, that is something that will be getting ready for the marks eyes at some point.
乔治在E-N-P-H上问它不在一个月或五个月的市场干预史密斯屏幕上 你的大部分交易都来自那里 他想知道你是怎么发现这些东西的 Um, george is asking on E-N-P-H that it's not on either the one or the five months Intervening market Smith screen, where most of your trades come from, is wondering how you found that stuff.
听到这个我很惊讶 我不确定这是否完全正确 如果是的话 我也不确定为什么会这样 但它应该是这样的 I'm surprised to hear that. I'm not sure if that's completely true, and if it is, I'm not sure why that would be, but it should be.
所以它至少应该在早期 我的意思是 这是一个非常高的RS名 So it should at least be on the early So, I mean, this is a super high RS name.
你知道 如果我们看看偏远的市场 嗯E-NPH值99MI的强度 这就是方式 你知道 我的意思是 这是 这是 这是市场上最强的股票之一 You know, if we take a look at remote markets with here, um E-N PH 99 MI of strength, that's the way, you know, I mean, that's, this is one of the strongest stocks in the market.
所以我总是会看到 你知道 高 超高R-S的名字 如果他们被训练去篡改他们的200天移动平均线 So I'm always gonna see, you know, the high, super high R-S names, if they're trained to bug their 200 day moving average.
嗯 让我 我也 让我看看这里的东西 Um, let me just, and I also, let me just see something here.
你现在让我好奇了 呃 让我看看 等一下 到这里来 You got me curious now, uh, let's see, hold on, go here.
所以我 我在运行 我用我的屏幕运行屏幕和市场 So I'm, I'm running, I'm running the screens and markets with my transcreens.
我只是好奇为什么会这样 I'm just curious why that would be.
是啊 不是一个月 Yeah, it's not on the one month.
这 这很奇怪 听起来需要一到四个月 That's, uh, it's bizarre. It sounded the wanted one to four months.
很惊讶 不知道为什么会断了 Very surprised. Not sure why that would cut that off.
也许是个小故障 我不知道 Maybe it's a glitch, I don't know.
不 不 实际上是1到4个月 Uh no, no, it's actually on the one to four months.
所以它介于两者之间 看 我们有 我们有一个月的 然后我们有一到四个月的 So it falls in between. See, we've got the, we've got the one month, and then we've got the one to four months.
所以我们在Marketsmith做的是我们把一个 在趋势确认阶段之前的 嗯 长达一个月 然后我们把中间的砍掉 所以你可以看到早期阶段 中期阶段 和确认阶段 So what we did in Marketsmith was we we chopped up the one, the, the the prior to the, um, the confirm stage of trend, up to one month, and then we chopped out the middle, so you can look at sort of the early stage, the mid stage, and in the confirmed stage.
所以这是在中间阶段 所以它确实在美妙的月份出现 So this is in the middle stage, so it does come up in the wonderful month.
我想说的是 它必须碰到其中一个屏幕 I was going to say that this really had to meet one of those, one of those screens.
好了 迈克尔在问你会不会被停职 或者MS There you go. Um, michael's asking If you get stopped out of a position, or MS.
你想买的股票 你如何避免让任何情绪 比如愤怒 影响你下一次的梦想决定 the stock that you wanted to buy, how do you avoid letting any emotions, such as anger, affect your next dream decision?
我的意思是 这些情绪对你没有帮助 所以我的意思是 你对一个没有生命的物体生气 它不知道你在生气 所以我真的不认为这有任何意义 Well, I mean that those emotions don't serve you, so I mean, it's really and you're getting angry at an inanimate object that doesn't know you're angry, so I don't really see any point in that.
所以作为一名交易员 你必须成熟起来 尤其是当你在交易的时候 So you're just gonna have to mature as a as a trader, um, you know, especially while you're trading.
你知道 我总是说 如果你要哭 尖叫大喊 打破东西 扔掉所有的脾气 只是 你知道 确保你从交易第一 去做 当你有现金的时候 You know, I always say, if you're gonna cry, scream yell, break things, throw off, throw all the temper tanger, and just, you know, make sure you get out of trade 1st and do it, do it when you're in cash.
但是 你知道 你必须意识到这是交易的一部分 But, you know, again, you just have to realize that that this is part of trading.
我认为 我认为 你知道 愤怒来自嗯 嗯期望 你没有设定适当的期望 I think, I think, you know, anger comes from um, um expectation, where you don't set proper expectations.
所以 你知道 你必须知道 你会被拦下很多很多次 嗯 会犯很多很多错误 So, you know, you have to know that, you know, you're gonna be stopped out many, many times, um, and there's gonna be lots and lots of mistakes made.
我不知道该怎么办 你是怎么控制的 I don't know what do. How do you, uh, control?
你不是一个很情绪化的人 至少据我所知 马克 You're not very emotional a person, to at least that I know of you, mark.
但我的意思是 每个人对钱的情感是如何定义的 But I mean, how do everybody's emotional over money, for sure, define emotions?
是啊 我还指望你能把这个给我呢 因为我不是心理学家 Yeah, I was hoping you were going to pass me this one, because I'm not a psychologist.
嗯 你知道 我通常会 这就是我认为有嗯标记的地方 嗯 离开一个位置 Well, you know, I would normally, this is where I think having um marks point about um, getting out of a position.
以同样的方式 我们做交易后分析 你知道 听着 我会坐在那里 根据我的感受做一些自我反思分析 但那是在我离开屏幕的时候 你知道 而不是在我处于一个位置的时候 嗯 你知道 试着弄清楚 你知道 如果我感到沮丧 什么 你知道 什么 你知道 有一些时候 你 你你做得很完美 但结果并不好 And in the same way we do post trade analysis, you know, listen, I'll sit there and do a little self reflective analysis based upon how I'm feeling, but it's when I'm away from the screen, you know, not when I'm in a position, um, and, you know, trying to figure out, you know, if I'm frustrated, what, you know, what, you know, there there are times, you, you you do things perfectly, and it just doesn't work out well.
这就是你不想沮丧的时候 It's, that's when you don't want to get frustrated.
你知道 沮丧是正常的 You know, it's okay to be frustrated.
如果你做了一些愚蠢的事情 那就是你应该感到沮丧的时候 If you did something foolish, that's when you probably should be frustrated.
所以它只是想让这些东西同步 So it's really just trying to get these things in sync.
而且 你知道 我经常说的一个短语是 情绪的好仆人 但可怕的主人 意思是你不想让你的情绪驱动 And, you know, one of the phrases I often say with emotions is, their good servants but horrible masters, meaning you don't want your emotions driving
这艘船 但让它们以一种至少能帮助你了解情况的方式为你服务 让你做出更好的决定 而不是更糟的决定 the ship, but letting them serve you in a way that at least helps you inform, to make you make better decisions, not worse.
对 我做的一件事是 我试着告诉人们要保持好奇心 Yeah, one of the things, yeah, one of the things that I do is, I try to tell people is that get curious.
好奇心真的是一种很好的中和剂当某事发生而你不开心时 保持好奇心 然后说 嗯 你知道 为什么会发生这种事 A curiosity is really a great neutralizer for When something happens and you're not happy about it, get curious and say, hmm, you know, why did that happen?
什么 哪里出了问题 分析一下 What? What went wrong there? And analyze it.
这会给你一种赋权感 And that will give you a sense of empowerment.
它会它会给你信息 它也会帮助你了解正在发生的事情 这样你就可以有一个新的计划 It'll it'll give you information, and it'll also help you understand what's going on so you can have a new plan.
但是 但是 你知道 好奇心 我认为 是驱使科学家 发明家 艺术家 你知道 股票交易者 是好奇心 你知道 我们总是想要提高 But, but, you know, that curiosity, I think, is what drives scientists, inventors, artists, you know, stock traders, is that curiosity where we always, you know, want to improve.
把每件事都看作是完善和变得更好的过程中的一步 And see everything as a step within the process of, you know, perfecting and getting better.
知道这就像打高尔夫球一样 And knowing that it's like golf.
我是说 我们一直在打高尔夫球 你知道 我们永远都不可能打出18杆 但你也只能打出18杆了吧 I mean, we keep playing golf, and, you know, we know we're never going to shoot an 18, you know, but that's the best you can do, um?
这是不可能发生的 And it's not going to happen.
但这就是为什么这个游戏如此吸引人 因为因为你总是可以提高 你永远都不会足够好 But that's why it's the game is so alluring, because because you can always improve, you're never going to be, you know, good enough.
嗯 所以我认为这就是我看待交易的方式 Um. So I think that's the way I look at trading.
关于F-H-N的问题南希 这是T-D银行的一只股票 每股25美元 Question on F-H-N as a Nancy, this is a stock in the middle of a bio from T-D Bank for $25 a share.
但两天前他们在那里开店时 一个朋友接手了 But a friend took it on two days ago when they set up there.
你会在并购过程中购买股票吗 Would you be buying a stock in the process of a merger in acquisition?
嗯 一般来说没有 你知道 我一般不会 但我不太懂 你知道 Um, generally no. You know, I generally wouldn't be, but I don't know much about it, you know.
我不确定 但是 你知道 可能 你知道 I'm not sure. But, you know, possibly, you know.
但一般来说 如果有 你知道的 某种提议 它就会去 But generally, if there's, you know, some kind of offer, it goes.
我想在2月和3月有一个现金报价 然后它经历了一个很大的基准期 嗯 如果是很久以前 而且 嗯 你知道 可能 嗯 交易没有发生 嗯 价格是这样的 围绕它的反应价格 有一个现金报价 嗯 你知道 这告诉你 你知道 它对某人来说是值得的 There was a cash offer back in, I guess, february and March on this, and then it went through this big basing period, um, if it was a long time ago, and, um, you know, that there maybe, uh, the deal didn't happen, um, and the price is based out like this, around the price at which it reacted and had that cash offer price, uh, you know, that tells you that, you know, it's worth that to someone.
所以它给了一点 呃 你知道 呃 希望那是一种 你知道 对它的评价 So it gives a little bit of uh, you know, uh, hope that that's sort of a, you know, evaluation back stop on it.
我可能会播放它 但我会非常小心 因为当你开始关注 你知道 那种新闻 合并的新闻之类的 你知道 你真的可能会感到惊讶 你知道 在早上 当你醒来的时候 有一个间隙 呃 在某种突发新闻上 And I might play it, but I'd be real careful, because when, if you start getting into, you know, that kind of news, merger news and stuff, you know, you really could be in for a surprise, you know, in the morning, when you wake up and there's a gap, uh on on some type of breaking news.
所以我对任何类型的合并提议都很谨慎 So I'm, I'm careful with any type of proposed mergers.
比如 我想加上马克·波特 Um, take, I would just add Mark Pot.
你知道 即使是这样的环境 你知道 可能风险更大 You know, even an environment like this, you know, it's probably even riskier.
哦 是的 只是因为 你知道 资金 你知道 在一个游行类型的环境或类似的事情 Oh yeah, just because, you know, funding and, you know, in a processionary type environments or that type of thing.
我记得在七八年的时候 有一大堆提议的交易都泡汤了 I remember in o seven or o eight, there was just litanies of proposed deals that went down the tubes.
你知道 是的 M-A现在已经死了 You know, yeah, M-A are dead right right now.
IPO二级市场 一切都完了 你知道 人们对股票没有兴趣 IPO secondaries, everything's dead. You know, there's no appetite, you know, for in bids, for stocks.
所以这是一个有很大需求的行业 这就是为什么 你知道 当有很多首次公开募股的时候 有太多的 你知道 分拆 过多的二次发行和大量的合并活动 你通常会在市场上出现泡沫的迹象 你知道吗 So this is a business, you know, when there's a big appetite, and that's why, you know, when there's lots of ipos, and there's excessive, you know, splitting and excess secondaries and lots of merger activity, you're usually later staged in the market in a sign of froth, you know?
现在 是的 我同意马克的观点 现在的风险比以往任何时候都要大 但这是可行的 你知道 当然是一笔交易 Now, yeah, I would agree with Mark that it's even more risky than ever right now, but it could work, you know, certainly for a trade.
我正在跟进这件事 I'm on a follow up with that.
关于银行的问题 问题是 在利率上升的环境下 对银行业有什么看法 Questioned about the banks. Question is, any thoughts on the banking sector with the interests, higher interest rate environment upon us?
我的想法是 图表是什么样的 Well, the thoughts are, what do the chart charts look like?
我的意思是 图表 你知道 看看B-A-C 它处于 处于第二阶段下降趋势 I mean, the charts, you know, look at B-A-C, it's, it's in a it's in a stage two down trend.
所以我根本不关心发生了什么 So that I don't care what happens fundamentally.
如果基本面这么好 为什么股票还在下跌 If it's, if the fundamentals so great, why is the stock in a downturn?
不 所以 我的意思是 如果你想要猜测 思考 说 好吧 我们知道 你期待某事发生 并使用水晶球 好吧 你知道 这是另一个完整的游戏 No. So, I mean, if you want a guess and think and say, well, we know, you expect something to happen, and use a crystal ball, well, you know, that's a whole another game.
不 那只是我的猜测 No, that's, uh, that's truly speculating.
嗯 你知道 我不是一个真正的投机者 尽管 你知道 我做风险回报的决定 没有确定性 我把一切都建立在概率的基础上 但我不是一个投机者 对我认为可能发生的事情下注 更像一个跟随火车的kabus 坚持去做正在发生的事情 Um, you know, I'm not, I'm not really a speculator, although, you know, I do make risk reward decisions, and there's no certainties, and I base everything on probabilities, but I'm less a speculator of making bets of what I think might happen on more of a kabus that follows the train and stick with a going with what is happening.
嗯 这就是 这就是 你知道我想说什么 Um? So that that's, that's, you know what I would say there.
就银行而言 我的意思是 它们今后的表现可能会很好 但它们目前还不符合我的标准 As far as the banks are concerned, I mean, they could perform great from this time going forward, but they don't meet my criteria right now.
乔治问 他知道他的股票在一个确定的趋势中所必需的一切 George is asking He knows everything that is necessary for his stock to be in a confirmed dub trend.
但是20天和50天的区别有多重要 甚至10天和20天的区别有多重要 But how important is it that the 20 day is about the 50 day, or even the ten is about the 20 for your purchase
点吗 嗯 你知道 你通常会有50以上的20 point? Um, well, you know, you generally will have the the 20 above the 50.
当你处于低水平时 你可以有短期移动平均线 在中期移动平均线之下 You could have to it when you're in low cheats and cheats, you could have the the shorter term, moving averages below the intermediate term, you know.
所以如果你从一个接近新高的底部出来 你通常会希望这些移动平均线彼此高于对方 So if you're coming out of a base near new highs, you generally want to have those moving averages above each other.
但就像我说的 在作弊区 你可以 但即使是大多数作弊者 你知道 你有移动平均线 是那些50以上的20 But like I said, in a cheat area, you could, but even most cheater is, you know, you do have the moving average, is those the 20th above the 50.
所以 是的 你知道 你最好坚持 你知道 交易 是的 一般来说 你知道 你有短期移动平均线高于长期移动平均线 So, yeah, you know, you'd be better off sticking with, you know, trades that, yeah, you generally speaking, you know, you have the shorter moving averages are above the longer term moving average.
但是再一次 只要回头看看所有的交易 你知道 我做的所有的交易 所有的模型 你知道 在我的书里 只要回头看看 你知道 你会看到什么百分比满足什么标准 But again, just go back and look at all the trades that, you know, that that I make, and all the models, you know, in my books, and and just go back and take a look, you know, you're gonna see that what percentage meet what criteria.
现在 我做的大多数事情 你会发现股票的所有特征都相同的概率是80%到98% Now. And most of the things that I do, you'll find that the percentage of time that all the characteristics within the stock are the same as each one is like 80 to 98 %.
你知道 我很少会从事这样的交易 你知道 只有50%的情况符合我的标准 You know, it's very rare that I'll be in a trade that, you know, is a situation where only, it only meets my criteria 50% of the time.
它通常是80%到100%的时间 It's usually 80 to all up almost a hundred percent of the time.
你知道 每次的标准都是一样的 You know, the criteria is very much the same every time.
看看这些模型 看看这些股票 So look at the models, look at the stocks.
这是主要的问题 That's the main thing to look at.
现在 回过头来看看像B-J这样的东西 Now, just go back and you look at something like, you know, B-J.
现在你看一下P-J 当我买入时 从这里出来 你可以看到20点高于50点 50点高于长期 这是一个阶段性的上升趋势 Now you take a look at P-J here, when when I'm buying it, coming out of here, you can see twenties above the fifties, fifties above the longer term, it's in a staged, you up trend, you know.
PH 当然 你知道 C-I 你知道 在07 29买C-I 就在这里 And PH, of course, would be, you know, C-I, you know, buying C-I over here on 07:29, which is right here.
20岁以上的50天 你知道 你会看到流行的标准 Twenties above the 50 day, you know, again, you're gonna see that the the prevailing criteria.
你知道 这种事经常发生 That happens, you know, pretty much all the time.
杰里米问你能不能看看EVH 是的 我们9月6日在那里买的 如果我没记错的话 我想让你谈谈你是如何处理蜡烛芯的 Jeremy is asking if you can look at EVH, yeah, where we bought that on September six, if I'm not mistaken, Um, I'd like you to discuss how you handle the wicks of the candles.
如果 呃 顶部的范围 呃 在你进入的枢轴点 使它不是一个干净的 打破或清理 If, uh, the the top range, uh, has on your entry within the pivot point, making it not a clean, a break or clean up.
我不喜欢 首先 我不用烛台 I don't. 1st of all, I don't use candlesticks.
这是第一点 所以 我不知道你在说什么 不是干净 这是一个非常干净的爆发 That's number one. So, and I don't know what you're talking about, not clean, this is a crystal clean breakout.
所以它收紧了 正好在这些上面 So it tightened up, you know, perfectly came right above these.
当然 这里的这些小反转 These little reversals here, of course.
这个 这可能是一个灯芯 我猜 嗯 你知道 在这里你有一个更高的反转 但我不担心有一天 This, this could be a wick, I guess, um, you know, where you have a reversal a little bit higher here, but I'm not gonna worry about that one day.
这是轴心点 Um, this is the pivot point right here.
随着股价开始上涨 我开始买入 As it started to move up, I started to buy it.
第二天它就进去了 And you know, next day it went inside.
它坚持了下来 你还有一天 两天 三天 四天的时间 It followed through. You got one, two, three, four days up.
现在 由于市场疲软 它正在回落 Now it's pulling back with some weakness in the market.
到目前为止 它表现得很完美 但这并不意味着市场上的VOLTI不能 你知道 让它下来 撞到我的止损点 So far, it's acting perfect, but that doesn't mean that the VOLTI of the market can't, you know, get this to come down and and hit my stop.
这是很有可能的 但到目前为止 你知道 这真的很教科书 That's very possible. But so far, you know, it's really quite textbook.
这是一个小的猫的图案 在我第一次爆发的时候在这里 我说了 And it's a just a little cat pattern on top of a break I actually broke out over here as 1st breakout was here, which I said baltily.
2在这里 他还有一些秃顶 2nd was over here. He had some more bald tilly.
然后它终于变得非常漂亮和紧密 把猫的图案放在突破的顶部 And then it finally got real nice and tight, put that cat pattern on top of the breakout.
这就是我开始参与的地方 And that's where I started to get involved.
因为波动性平静下来了 r-v-n-c-r-v-n-c-r-v-n-c-我认为显然不是 Because the volatility calmed down. R-V-N-C-R-V-N-C-R-V-N-C-I consider it apparen'tly.
所以我要做的第一件事就是从这里回去测量几个月前的数据 So the 1st thing I would do is go back from here and measure a couple months back.
这里我们要放轻松一点 We'll give cut a little bit of slack here.
上升了百分之一百五十左右 So it's up a hundred and 50 some hundred percent.
这就满足了 我会把它放大 看一看 如果它处于铺设阶段 如果它加速前进 所以我会说 是的 它 So that meets that I would zoom out on it, take a look, um, if it's laid stage, if it's having accelerated advance, so I would say, yes, it.
这是一场潜在的权力较量 It is a potential power play.
的确如此 然而 当我们评估质量时 你知道 它进入左边的供应 这是很好的方式 但不是那么远 It does have. However, when we assess the quality, you know, it's going into supply here on the left side, that is good ways back, but not that far.
只有大约一年的时间 你得到了相当多的供应和一个巨大的 巨大的下降 It's only about a year, and you got quite a bit of supply and a big, giant decline here.
所以我想知道 你知道 我的意思是 这里发生了什么 So I'd want to know, you know, I mean, what's going on here?
这里发生了什么 你知道的 不寻常的事情吗 这么大的体积 Is there's something, you know, extraordinary happening here, this big volume?
但答案是肯定的 这是 这是一个潜在的权力游戏 向右边移动 But the answer is yes. This is, this is a potential power play a moving up the right side here.
还需要几天 我不知道你怎么看 Still needs some more days. I don't know what do you think of this?
马克 我也会看看 让我等一下 Uh, mark, and I would also look, let me hold on.
让我看一下R-V-N-C Let me just take a look at R-V-N-C.
相对强度是多少 是的 98年 What's the relative strength? Yeah, 98.
我希望能看到 9899 或者97 但如果它的相对强度不超过97 我就不会判定它是强力游戏 I would like to see a, you know, 9899, maybe 97, but I-I would not determine a power play if it doesn't have at least a 97 relative strength.
所以这是另一个标准 So that that would be another, uh, criteria.
你怎么看 是的 只是现在有点短 但这是一个值得关注的问题 What do you think? Yeah, just a little little short right now, but it's one to have on the radar.
我确实喜欢 嗯 如果你看这个 09 13 看起来像止损间隙更低 穿着好衣服 体积大 I do like, um, if you look at that, 09:13, looks like the stop gap lower, had a good clothes on, big volume.
或者说 它开得更低 Um, so, or it opened lower.
至少这是你不用打开的东西 At least that's what you don't have to open there.
那天我在低点开盘 在极低的时候 反弹和收盘都非常好 I've had opening on the low, on the dead low that day, and rallying and closing pretty pretty well.
所以我预计这里会形成一个低成本 So I would expect a low cheap right here to form.
这就是我想要参与的领域 That's where I'd be looking to potentially get involved.
嗯 走着瞧吧 我希望看到 我希望看到这个数量枯竭 Um, we'll see. And I'd like to see, I'd like to see that volume dry up, though.
我们只有六天的时间 It's what we got six days.
对我来说有点短 It's a little short for me.
是的 再说一次 如果市场表现真的很好 你知道 我们会关注这些类型的名字 你知道 几个月或几周内翻倍 并真正寻找任何潜在的入口点 Yeah, again, if the market was acting really good, you know, we'd be all over these type of names that are doubling in a couple, you know, months and a couple couple weeks, and really looking for, like, any potential entry point whatsoever.
呃 嘿 嘿 你知道的 任何地方都可以登上枢轴 Um lo, chee, chee, you know, anywhere to get on board a pivot.
但是 在这个市场上 我们看到了一些权力游戏 它们一直在波动 而且效率不高 But again, in this market, we've seen a bunch of power plays that have been having volatility and and not working efficiently.
所以我还是会小心一点 So I still would be a bit, a bit careful.
我要保留这个 I'm going to keep this one.
我只会把这只放在手表上 I'll only keep this one on Watch.
Carson也是一个新用户 他询问了关于twink交易的问题 Carson, who also is a new user, asking about the twink trade.
为什么要把止损点设得这么低 超过8% 而不是2364点呢 What is the reason behind putting the stop loss this low, more than 8 %, instead of, say, 2364?
但上周波动不大 But not much volatility occurred last week.
你可以把这个 你可以把它放在任何你想要的地方 Well, you could put the, you could put this top wherever you want.
我的意思是 但底线是 从技术上讲 你知道 对于这种类型的市场 随着波动的出现 你知道 美联储的潜在波动 这非常非常接近这个枢轴的底部 I mean, but the bottom line is, technically, you know, with this type of market, and and with the volatility coming up, you know, potential volatility with the fed um, this is very, very close at the bottom of this pivot here.
所以 我的意思是 它很容易就会在这里削边 抖出来 你就会被打晕 So, I mean, this could very easily undercut here and shake out and you're knocked out.
我的意思是 这是第一个合乎逻辑的领域 I mean, this would be really the 1st logical area.
而且 如果你看周刊 那才是真正吸引我的地方 And also, if you look at a weekly, that's what really got my eye.
看一下周报 Take a look at the weekly here.
你可以看到那天外面很热闹 You can see that was that big outside day.
这就是那个每周酒吧 你知道 很好地出现了 这是一个很大的一周 我应该说 不是一天 That's that weekly bar that, you know, popped up quite nicely, and was a big outside a week, I should say, not day.
所以 你知道 回到这个范围是正常的 但低于这个水平 你知道 这真的 你知道 从技术上讲 它与8%的最大百分比相吻合 So, you know, pulling back into that range is normal, but getting below that level, you know, that that's really, you know, it coincides with, technically, in maximum percentage of 8 %.
嗯 所以 你知道 我也比正常的位置要小 所以假设假设一个更大的止损点 你知道 是可以接受的吗 Um. So, and I'm, you know, I'm taking smaller than normal positions too, so given given a bigger stop, you know, is, uh, is acceptable?
你知道 做小头寸 我就不会冒那么大的风险 You know, with the smaller positions, I'm not taking as much risk.
好了 快结束了 维克在问马克 Okay, getting close to the end, here, vick is asking Mark.
他记得你说过 当表现不佳时 你经常被止损 你应该改善或收紧止损 He recalls you saying, when performance is suffering, you get stopped out a lot, you should improve or tighten up your stops.
不 我很抱歉 捆绑你的选择标准除了总是逐步暴露风险 在你可能经历很多深蹲的情况下 你的选择标准中最重要的部分是什么 Um, no, I'm sorry. Tying up your selection criteria In addition to always progressively exposing risk, what are the most important parts of your selection criteria to tighten up in the context of your approach when you may be experiencing a lot of squats?
这是一个很好的问题 我当然想用它来回答这个问题 That's a great question, and I definitely want market it to answer that.
我也想在上面采访一下 Also would like the interview on it.
所以真正的关键是 当事情不顺利的时候 你不要那么宽容 So the the real key is to when things are not working well, you want to be less forgiving.
你知道 你不想 你想强迫交易 至少像上厕所一样 You know, you don't want to, you want to force trades, as least as potty.
你不会真的想强迫交易 You don't really ever want to force trades.
但我们确实有一些灰色地带 你知道 我们在交易和设置方面更加自由 But we do have, there is some gray area there, you know, where we're being a bit more liberal as to the trades that we take and the and the setups.
也许 你知道 当你进入一个艰难的市场时 我们接受的波动 And maybe, you know, the volatility that we accept when you get into a tough market.
我马上升级Alpha的相对强度 我想要最强大 最强的趋势 I'm immediately upgrading in relative strength in Alpha, and I want the most powerful, strongest trend.
呃 这与大多数人所做的完全相反 Uh. This is the complete opposite of what most people do too.
所以我们要记住 大多数人都在寻找被击倒的名字 被击倒最多的名字 So just we keep that in mind that most people are looking for the beaten down names, the ones that are down the most.
我要找的恰恰相反 I'm looking for the exact opposite.
我想要向上最多的 最强的 最有力的 向后拉的最少的 以及入口非常脆的紧度 I want the sucks that are up the most, the ones that are the strongest, the most powerful, the ones that are pulling back the least amount, and the tightness that the entries are super crisp.
主要来说 我是那种王牌和国王 Mainly, I'm one of those aces and kings.
我希望这个设置尽可能的完美 I want this set ups to be really, really as perfect as possible.
现在 市场表现很好 我在赚钱 我开始放松我的参数 我可能会有点草率 Now, as the market, as doesn't is doing well, and I'm making money, I start to loosen up my parameters a bit, and I get it maybe a little sloppy.
我说的马虎 我的马虎可能比其他99 9%的交易员更自律 And I say sloppy, my my sloppiness is probably more disciplined than nine, 99.9% of every other trader out there.
但是 相对来说 我现在会更加宽容 But still, relatively speaking, I'm going to be more forgiving now.
我甚至可能会给一些下行空间 因为当市场表现良好时 我将得到救助 I might even give a little more room on the downside, because I'm going to get bailed out when this market's doing well.
当市场表现不佳时 你会得到很多救助 You're going to get bailed out a lot when the market's not doing well.
你会受到惩罚 即使你做的每件事都很完美 You're going to get penalized, even when you do everything perfect.
所以你需要收紧所有的参数 So you've got a really tighten up all your parameters.
我不知道 你会怎么 你会怎么形容它 I don't know how, how would you, uh, how would you describe it?
马克吗 这就是我通常用某种体育类比的地方 Mark? This is where I usually use some type of sports analogy.
你知道 我周末在打高尔夫球 你知道 我在草洞里打了两杆 You know, I was just playing golf of the weekend, you know, I put two in the rough.
就像 我不在乎下一杆有多远 我想要公平的方式 所以我缩短了我的挥杆 It's like, I don't care how far the next one goes, I want it in the fair way, so I shorten up my swing.
是吗 棒球也是一样 Yeah? It's the same with baseball.
如果你处于低谷状态 你就不会挥拍靠近好球带的球 If you're in a slump, you're not swinging it balls that are close to the zone.
你等着一个人来了 正好在戏的核心 然后你才开始攻击它 You wait for one that's come and right over the heart of the play before you take a hack at it.
我变得越来越挑剔 你知道的 越少的东西能起作用 And I get pickier and pickier and pickier, you know, the the less things work.
我不会 你知道 我讨厌这么说 但95%的想法 你知道 即使是简单的下拉框或其他东西 我不会碰它们 因为它们只是 它们看起来不像 它们没有 它们没有任何接近的外观 更不用说 你知道吗 I'm not gonna be, you know, I hate to say this, but 95% of the ideas, you know, that, even whether the simple drop box or different stuff, I'm not gonna touch em, because they just, they don't look, they're not, they don't have anything close to the look, let alone, you know?
不 也许在一个好的环境里 No, maybe even in a good environment.
所以在良好的环境中 你可以让 你知道 你可以让标准放松一点 因为你在玩一个更大的缓冲 So where in the good environment, that's where you let the, you know, you let the criteria loose a little bit, because you're, you're playing with a much bigger cushion.
这就是我的想法 So that's, that's pretty much how I think about it.
对 还有这里 另一件事 是这样的 Yeah, and here. And the other thing, here's the thing.
当然 很多刚接触这个的人并没有真正的能力去破译 a k q j和帐篷 Of course, many of you that are new to this don't really have the ability to really decipher, you know, aces from kings and queens and jacks and tents.
你知道 当你在玩扑克的时候 你知道这是a 你知道a 你知道同花顺 你知道 牌的价值就在你面前 You know, when you're playing poker, you know it's a ace, you know aces, you know flush, you know, the value of the cards is right in front of you.
在交易中 你必须评估它 你知道它隐藏了价值 With with trading, you have to assess that, you know it, it's hidden the value.
你必须把车翻过来 然后说 哦 对 没错 You have to turn over the car and go, oh, yeah, that's right.
这是一个很好的我们只有 你知道 我们只有通过经验才知道 That's a nice And we only, you know, and we only know that through experience.
这有点棘手 因为你在做a-a 这是主观的 So so this is a little more tricky, you know, because you're making A-A, it's subjective.
你是在做判断 而不是 你知道 绝对的 You're making a judgment call, as opposed to it being, you know, absolute.
这需要经验 所以不要对自己感到沮丧 你知道 如果你没有正确地排名 你会回头说 我为什么要那样做 So that takes experience. So don't get frustrated with yourself, you know, if you're not ranking things correctly, and you're looking back and saying, what the heck did I do that for?
那是个糟糕的决定 是的 你会做出很多糟糕的决定 随着时间的推移 它们会变得越来越好 That was a crappy decision. Yeah, you're going to make lots of crappy decisions, and they'll get better and better and better over time.
我们快结束了 你有几个问题要问 Um, as we're wrapping up, you got a couple questions here.
有人问我和斯坦·威斯汀晚餐吃得怎么样那是周四的事 People asking how dinner was with stan Winesting that's not till Thursday.
对 对 星期四 周四晚上 我要和斯坦德和他妻子还有我妻子一起吃晚饭 Yeah, yeah, thursday. Thursday night, I'm having dinner with Stand and his wife and my wife.
好的 我想这是关于Jason问的问题 你是否通过一个给定的名称来跟踪分发日 All right, I think that's about where out there's a Jason asking, do you track distribution days host by within a given name?
由某个股配发天帖 Distribution days post by an individual stocks?
我在追踪 你知道 建模器里有什么 Um, I'm tracking, you know, what is in the modeler.
我的意思是 这真的包含了 I mean, that's really, that really encompasses.
几乎所有我追踪的东西 Um, almost everything that I'm tracking.
我们还添加了一些其他的东西 We are adding some other things too.
我们将增加相对强势线 或触及13周高点 We're going to add relative strength lines, or hitting like a 13 week high.
我们要做短期相对强度的高点和低点 我们的低点 We're going to do shorter term relative strength highs and lows, new new low in ours.
嗯 还有一些其他的变量或读数 我们会很快加入 但真正关键的是我书里的那些 Line um. There are some other um variables or readings that we're going to, we're going to add soon, but the real key ones are the ones that are in my book.
然后我会说那些 那些害怕的 小的 少量的 然后是添加的单品 这些真的是我在看的主要事情 我在看天数 坏衣服和好衣服的数量 Then I talk about those, those that fear, small, handful, and then the added ones that are in monoler Those are really the main thing that I'm looking at post by um, I'm looking at number of days down, number of bad clothes versus good clothes.
嗯 你知道 是否会在爆发后马上有20到50个 是否会有大量的交易量回到基地还是离开基地 嗯 你完全知道我在我的书中谈论什么 Um whether, you know, right aways will the 20 to 50 right after the breakout, whether there's heavy volume coming back into the base versus going out of the base, um, you know exactly what I talk about my book.
我给你们讲个小故事 然后 我们要 我们要结束了 I'll just tell you a quick story, and then I'm, we're going to, we're going to wrap it up.
但是 T-J·克鲁迪尔 他是一个 世界闻名的扑克玩家 But, um, T-J Kludier, who is a, you know, a world renowned, uh, poker player.
他是一名锦标赛选手 我不知道 你知道 40场比赛 50场比赛 He's a tournament player, who's one, I don't know, you know, 40 tournaments, 50 tournaments.
他花了数千万美元 He spent tens of millions of dollars um.
他 我 我参加了一个 一个扑克比赛 我想是a-w-p-t 我不记得了 但是参加了一个扑克术语 He I-I played in a, in a, in a poker tournament, I think it was A-W-P-T-I can't remember, but played in a poker term.
他和我同桌 而且我一直都是 一个老师 是个很棒的球员 He was at my table, and and I always really, so a teacher, was a great player, um.
埃里克·西德尔也在现场 就像世界上最伟大的球员一样 And Eric Sidel was there. It was like some of the greatest players in the world.
所以 我问埃里克·西德尔 我说 你 你和别人一起工作的时候 你会给别人上课吗 So, I-I-I asked Eric Sideel, I said, you, you know, do you, when you work with people, you give lessons?
他说 不 我不知道 And he said, no, I-I don't.
他直接给了我 He just gave me an outright?
不 然后I-t-j 你知道 是另一个我想向他学习的人 No. And then I-T-J was, you know, another person that I would like to learn from.
所以我对T-J说 你能给我上课吗 So I said to, you know, to T-J, would you, would you give lessons?
他说 不 我说 你知道 我愿意 你知道 付给你 你知道 你的时间 我可以给你一大笔钱 He said, no. And I said, dwell, you know, I'd be willing to, you know, pay you, you know, for your time, and I'll be able to pay you handsomely.
他说 你回家给我多少钱 He goes, well, how much would you be home to pay me?
我说 我每小时给你一千美元 I said, I'll give you a thousand dollars an hour.
他说 你想什么时候开始 He goes, when you want to start?
所以我说 现在 他说 我们走 So I said, now. He goes, let's go.
我们从桌子上站起来 在酒店的大厅里坐下 我拿出一个笔记本 我们开始聊天 We got up from the table, we went and sat down on the lobby of the hotel, and I pulled out a notebook, and we started talking.
我们在一起呆了2个小时 然后我去了 我已经拿了他的一些书 We we spent 2 h together. And then I went, and I already had his some of his books.
后来我去看了他的书 我说 天哪 他只是把书里的一切都告诉了我 I went and I went and read his books after and I said, man, all he just did was just tell me everything that's in his books.
人们就是这么对我的 你知道吗 And that's exactly what people do with me, you know?
嗯 虽然 是的 有很多的粒度 有一个 有一个Q-A 有 我的意思是 我确实把东西带到了生活中 Um? And although, yes, there's a lot of granularity, there's a, there's Q-A, there's, I mean, I'm certainly bringing things to life.
你可以从别人身上学到很多东西 你会从别人身上学到很多东西 And there's a lot that you can get from, you know, you're gonna get from going to learn from somebody.
否则 你知道 我们都会 你知道 去哈佛 And and otherwise, you know, we'd all just, you know, go to Harvard.
他们只是分发课本 我们就成了脑外科医生和辩护律师 They just pass out textbooks and we become brain surgeon and trial lawyers.
但事情不是这样的 And that's just not the way it works.
但最重要的是 我所做的99%的事情都在那些书里 But the bottom line is is that everything, 99% of everything I do is in those books.
就像T-J一样 他所有的动作 他所做的一切 都在书里 Just like T-J, all his moves, everything he does, is all in the books.
嗯但是有时候你需要我需要他亲口告诉我 um And But sometimes you need I needed him to hear it from him.
我需要他让它复活 I needed him to bring it to life.
我需要他解释给我听 I needed him to explain it to
我 然后当我回过头去读这些书的时候 它们不仅更可信 而且我更理解它 我也能更好地使用它 me. And then when I went back and read the books, they had not only more credibility, but I understood it more, and I was able to use it better.
然后J 你知道 就在我参加T-J-I-I-A决赛之后 我获得了第四名 赢得了数万美元就在接下来的一个月 Um and and J just, you know, right after I spent that time with T-J-I-I-A final table, and came in 4th and won tens of thousands of dollars the very it was like the very next month.
所以 这钱花得很值 So it was, it was, it was money well spent.
给你们讲个小故事 Just a quick little story for you.
不管怎样 我们知道了 我现在得走了 Um, anyway, we got it. I have to run now.
我们都结束了 我想对马克说谢谢 Um, it's wrapped us up. I want to say thank you to Mark.
谢谢你 鲍勃 是的 听起来不错 Thanks, bob. Yep, that sounds good.
我们要做的就是在这里播放苹果的回放 And what we'll do is have the replay of Apple here momentarily.
当然 请继续关注谎言流的实时更新 在这周剩下的时间里 Stay tuned, of course, to the lie stream for live updates, uh, in real time, throughout the remainder of the week.
我们下周一再讲 And we'll get back at it for next Monday.
好吧 是的 如果这周有时间 我可能会再做一次问答 特别是在我们看到美联储的情况之后 Okay, yep. And I might try to do another Q and A if we have time this week to depending, especially after we'll see what happens with the fed.
如果我们疯了 需要谈谈 And if we get wild and uh-huh, need to talk about things.
也许我们会再来这里 So maybe we'll come in here again.
很好 多亏了好人 Very nice. Thanks to good guys.
再见 Bye bye.