At the end of the month the focus will be here in paris. 在这个月底巴黎成为了关注的焦点
As well leaders meet to try to agree a plan of action. 各国领导齐聚于此希望磋商出一个切实可行的方案
But in a world filled with competing interests 但是在一个充满利益冲突的世界
reaching an agreement is no easy task. 达成共识不是一项轻松的工作
Let's look at some of the key players first the bigger misters. 让我们看看一些关键角色 首先是第一主角
EU countries rely on fossil fuels to industrialize but now they're moving away from heavy industry 欧盟国家依靠化石燃料实现了工业化而现在他们正在把重心从重工业上面离开
and encouraging other countries to lower their missions too. 并且鼓励其他国家也降低他们的重工业比重
But it's not that simple 但这不是个简单的问题
Rapidly developing countries like China and India rely on fossil fuels for economic growth. 发展中大国像中国和印度要依靠化石燃料拉动经济增长
They had to why they should have to curb emissions 他们肯定会质疑为什么他们就不得不降低碳排放
while others like EU got to use fossil fuels in the past 然而欧盟国家却可以在过去肆意使用化石燃料
Then there are the countries like U.S. 像美国这样的国家
They're why if they cut their missions *** industry to places like China and India 他们会表示*** 像中国 印度这样的国家
Between them these countries in Midtown behalf the world's carbon dioxide. 在他们之间 这些国家占据了差不多全世界二氧化碳排放的总量
But what about the countries which will be heavily affected by global warming 那些受全球变暖影响很大的国家又怎么办呢？
without being able to do much to stop it 他们并没有能力去阻止它
Places like the Maldives and the Marshall Islands which risk getting 像马尔代夫和马沙尔群岛都面临着被海平面淹没的危险
eaten up by sea level rise. In the past finding a deal that everyone would agree to 在过去想建立一个每个人都同意的协议几乎是不可能的
seemed impossible after years of trying to divide up responsibilities 在2009年哥本哈根气候大会上希望把减排任务分摊到各个国家
in Copenhagen in 2009 it finally became clear that no one plan would work for everyone 最后却发现没有一个方案可以满足所有人的诉求
So the paris talks are taking a different approach. 所以这次巴黎气候大会通过一个完全不同的方法
Pledges. Each country independently pledges how it intends to lower its emissions 承诺书 每一个国家独立的草拟一份承诺书说明各自的减排计划
These pledges called intended nationally determined contributions. 这份承诺书称之为“国家自主承诺”
This seems to be working well. 这看上去非常有效
So far 58 countries submitted their pledges for example 58个国家递交了他们的承诺书 例如中国承诺
China pledged to peak their co2 emissions by 2030 and the European Union have pledged 将于2030年将二氧化碳排放达到峰值 欧盟则承诺将在同年
to reduce their greenhouse gases by 40% by the same year 把他们的温室气体降低40%
But the pledges don't add up 但是这些承诺书不是单纯的叠加
Combining them allows you to estimate how hot the global get 而是将每个国家的承诺内容统筹之后预估地球还会升高多少温度
if everyone meet that target. As it stands we're facing a world 2.7 degrees 就目前来看 我们面临这一个比工业革命之前气温高出2.7摄氏度的地球
warmer than before the Industrial Revolution, still well above the 2 degree threshold 这个数值仍旧比国际公认的阈值还要高2摄氏度
agreed by the international community what's more the pledges themselves are the start of the 除此之外承诺书仅仅是通过协议的一个开端
past negotiations.When the deal be legally binding how do we make sure country 如果这份协议具有法律效益我们又怎么确保每个国家会坚持履行承诺书的内容呢？
stick to their pledges and then there's the matter of money 还有就是资金的问题
many pledges from developing countries rely on support from wealthy estates 许多中国家给出的减排承诺是建立在富人阶层的
developed countries have committed to providing a hundred billion dollars a year 发达国家承诺从2020年起
from 2020 onwards mostly through a Green Climate Fund. But it's still not entirely clear 每年向绿色气候基金提供一百亿美元 但是仍旧不清楚的是这些钱最终从何而来
where all this money would come from and which countries would receive it. 还有哪些国家会接受这部分钱的资助
The task faced by decision-makers in Paris is huge and the states can be much higher. 巴黎气候协议拟定者面对的任务十分艰巨 并且现实状况肯定更加窘迫
What will a deal looks like？ Can the deal even be reached？ 这份协议会是什么样子？ 这份协议会草拟成功吗？
It won't be long before we know the answers to those questions. 不需要多久我们就会知道答案