好吧 他会超过1 欢迎来到今天的问答环节 Okay, he'll over one. Welcome to today's question and answer session.
我在MarkRichie 马克 你能听到我说话吗 I'm here at Mark Richie. Mark, can you hear me?
我能 你能听到我说话吗 I can. Can you hear me?
好的 我希望你们能听到我们 OK I hope you guys can hear us.
如果你能听到我们说话 请举手 让我们知道 You can raise your hand if you can hear us, just to let us know.
嗯 Um,
你可以开始输入你的问题 you can start entering your questions.
我们会尽可能多地在这里进行 And will get to as many as that we can as we can here.
只是去看看市场 很明显是市场 Uh, just to go over the market market, uh, obviously.
一个糟糕的市场 自从我们标记了道指和SNP的200天以来 这已经成为教科书式的时尚 我们在这里掉头向下 Uh, A crappy market. Ever since we tag that 200 day on the Dow and the SNP, this has been textbook fashion, that we turn tail down here.
我觉得就你住的地方而言你并没有太大的变化 Um, I don't think you much as change as far as your neck of the woods is concerned.
还有你的交易 对吧 不 还是很有戒心 显然是有原因的 And your trading, right? No, still still being pretty defensive, obviously for good reason.
嗯 是的 我们 嗯 你这一整年都是对的 Mhm, yeah, we've, uh, you've had that right all year, of course.
当然 我们的风险模型也是正确的 And and of course, our risk model has had it right also.
所以 你知道 就像我在备忘录里说的 你知道 有足够的警告和足够的时间来防守自己 So, you know, like I said in the memo, there's, you know, plenty of warning and plenty of time to position yourself defensively.
当然 我们确实 呃 你知道 试图利用我们从低点反弹的机会 Of course, we did, uh, you know, attempt to take advantage of a few rallies that we had off the lows.
但正如我们所指出的 你知道 在我们得到确认之前 这些很可能是熊市反弹 But as we pointed out, you know, these are, you know, are very likely bear market rallies until we get confirmation.
我们只是还没有看到这种确认 And we just have not seen that confirmation.
我们确实有长期的跑步机S-M-P处于上升趋势 但它也处于危险之中 呃 可能至少会变成中性 We do have the long term treadmill that's in an up trend for the the S-M-P, but that is also getting in jeopardy of of, uh, potentially going on to at least neutral.
如果我们触及这些低点 然后再跌破低点 你可能会进入一个最小的中性状态 If we hit these lows here, uh, and undercut the lows, you probably go to A-A minimum of neutral.
但是 再一次 我想快速地指出一些事情 然后我们会继续提问 But again, a real quick I just want to point on a few things, and then we'll move on to questions.
你 你现在有一群亿万富翁 你知道 你有 嗯 突袭Dahlios 你知道 人们真的 你知道 非常认真地对待这些意见 因为他们是非常富有的人 在市场上取得了成功 You're, you're getting a bunch of billionaires now, you know, you're getting the, um, raid Dahlios and, you know, and people really, you know, take these these opinions very seriously, because they're extremely rich people and success successful in the market.
但我要告诉你们的是 在1990年 我也可以指我参与过的很多底部 都是一样的 所有最聪明的人都看空了 But I'm just going to tell you that in 1990, and I can also meant go over a lot of bottoms that I've been involved in, that it was the same thing where all the smartest guys were all bearish.
我现在就可以告诉你 感情是不懂地位的 And I can tell you right now, sentiment doesn't know status.
当你让每个人都同意时 通常他们是错的 或者他们当时可能没有错 但通常接近他们是错的 嗯 嗯 你知道 我听到每个人都同意我们正在下降 你知道 2020年 5%肯定能比现在的低点低 等等 When you get everybody's in agreement, usually they're wrong, or they may not be wrong right then and there, but usually close to them being wrong, and, um, uh, you know, I'm hearing everybody agreeing now that we're going down, you know, 2020, 5% can definitely undercut the lows here and so forth.
你知道 我们喜欢专注于历史 用我自己的经验 基于我自己的经验 基于历史 先例 工作表明这里最坏的情况 尽管我这么说 我的意思是 如果通货膨胀失控 当然 你知道 市场是动态的 Are, you know, we like to concentrate on history, and use my own um experience, and based on my own experiences, based on historical, uh, precedence, uh, the the work suggests that the worst case scenario here, and when I say that, notwithstanding, I mean, if inflation gets out of control, certainly, you know, the market, it's dynamic.
它每天都在变化 但就目前而言 按照目前的情况 看起来 你知道 从这些水平来看 10%到12%的下跌可能是最坏的情况 It changes day by day. But as of right now, with the way things are, um, it looks like, you know, 10% to 12% downside is probably from these levels, is probably your worst case scenario.
我们能再往下一点吗 Um, could we go down more?
当然可以 你知道的 Of course we could, you know.
我们可能处于一个更长期的熊市 就像我几个月来一直在说的那样 And we could be in a longer term bear market, like I've been saying for months and months.
你知道 这取决于经济衰退 经济衰退取决于通货膨胀 通货膨胀取决于美联储的反应 You know, this is dependent on a recession, which is dependent on inflation, which is dependent on how the Fed reacts.
正如我所说 你知道 在美联储的报告中 我认为风险是他们加息75个基点 市场会因此抛售 这还不够 Um as I said that, you know, coming into this FED report, I think the risk is that they do 75 basis points, and the market sells off on that, and that it's not enough.
我认为美联储更激进实际上对市场和经济更好 I think the FED being more aggressive would actually be better for the market and for the economy.
我认为这正是我们所需要的 I think that's what we need.
但话又说回来 我们将会看到市场对此的反应 But then again, we'll see how the market response to that.
但大部分都是现金 But being in cash, are mostly in cash.
就我个人而言 我更希望这一切尽早发生 Myself, I'd prefer that to happen much sooner than later.
我是说 我更喜欢在这喝杯牛奶 I mean, I'd prefer a milk down here.
你知道 我几乎是百分之百的现金 You know, I'm, I'm pretty much almost a hundred percent cash.
所以我更希望市场从这里开始融化 把它清除掉 把所有人都冲走 越快越好 So I would prefer the market to just melt down from here, get it out of the way, wash everybody out, and the quicker the better.
嗯 我们可能 我们可能 我们可能得不到 Um, we may, we may, we may not get that.
也许在美联储加息的过程中 我们确实会看到某种形式的 呃 下降 Maybe on the FED hike we do get, um, some type of, uh, a decline.
这是瀑布 下降 但是 再说一遍 我们我们不知道 That's a waterfall, a decline. But, um, again, you know, we we don't know.
我只知道这并不意外 The one thing I do know is that this isn't a surprise.
你知道美联储是否会加息 You know whether the fed's going to hike.
大家都知道美联储会加息 好吗 Everybody knows the fed's going to hike, all right?
每个人都知道至少会有75个基点 And everybody knows going to be at least 75 basis points.
那么四分之一点真的会造成那么大的差异吗 So is a quarter of a point really going to make that big of a difference?
也许在它所做的声明类型中 美联储的 你知道的 压制通货膨胀的承诺可能会受到一些质疑 Maybe in uh, uh, the type of statement it makes, uh, the fed's, uh, you know, commitment to squashing inflation may be questioned a bit.
但底线是 当你真正看到这里的一切时 很多都被低估了 大多数新闻都在桌面上 But the bottom line is, when you really look at everything here, a lot has been discounted, and most of the news is on the table.
因此 我们必须看到经济形势的变化 以及出现严重衰退的可能性 以及美联储更加激进的举措 So we really have to see a change in the the the landscape of the economy, and the and the um, the potential here for a serious recession, and the FED being even more aggressive.
我认为 你知道 And I think that, you know,
再一次 我们用通胀的上升来贴现最近的消息 还有一些折扣要做 但我不相信它是25% 不是在这个特定的时刻 again, we're discounting this most recent news with an uptic in inflation, and there's some discounting to be done, but I don't believe it's 25% from here, not not at this particular moment.
我们拭目以待 再说一次 我不会 我永远不会出卖我的观点 So we'll see. And again, I don't, I would never trade on my opinions.
我靠图表和证据来交易 而现在 I trade on the charts and the weight of evidence, and right now,
证据表明我们必须用现金 uh, the weight of evidence says that we have to be in cash.
磁带坏了 美联储反对我们 The tape is bad. The fed is against us.
别跟联调局作对 别跟录像作对 Don't fight the fed. Don't fight the tape.
所以我们要我们现在要保持 我们要保持防御 So we're gonna we're gonna stay in uh now, we're gonna stay defensive.
这里有几只我正在看的股票 我认为 就像我之前说的 你现在必须转换一下 把你的帽子转过来 去股票 Here few stocks that I am looking at, and I think, as I said before, you have to switch over now, turn your hat around and go to stocks.
忘掉市场指数吧 他们是低价的吗 Forget about the market index. Is they undercut?
好吧 股票在做什么 Fine. What are the stocks doing?
现在 我们没有说我们需要从股票中看到什么 因为茎模型 当然 这就是 你知道 给出的解读 And right now, we are not saying what we need to see with the stocks, because stem model, of course, well, that's what, you know, gives that that reading.
嗯 我今天早上确实和stanWinestein谈过 我很幸运这周能和他共进晚餐 我和我的妻子以及他的妻子 所以我将和他详细地交谈 我当然很高兴向你报告 你知道 我们谈论的市场 因为那是所有摊位喜欢谈论的 就是市场和体育 Um, I did talk to stan Winestein this morning, which I'm gonna be fortunate to have dinner with him this week, coming up with my wife and his wife, so I'll be talking to him at length, and I'll certainly be happy to report to you what, you know, what we talk about as far as the market, because that's about all that stand likes to talk about, is the market and sports.
但我怀疑他是否看到了我们的备忘录 我今天早上发布的那份很长的备忘录 他今天早上确实看到了 并打电话给我说他百分之百同意 他觉得 嗯 他看到了更少的低点 But I doubt he did see our the memo, that that long memo that I put out this morning, he actually saw that this morning and called me and said that he agrees a hundred percent, and that he felt that, UM, he see in less new lows.
他称之为a阶段的很多股票 它们正处于第一阶段的开始阶段 UM And a lot of stocks on what he calls one A, stage one A, which they're in the beginning stages of Stage one UM.
但他说 你知道 他的感觉和我一样 也许在10月到1月之间的某个时候 我们可能会触底 But he says that, you know, he feels like same as I feel, that maybe somewhere between October and January, we can maybe get a bottom.
这里有很多空头情绪 但你仍然要谨慎行事 因为行情太糟糕了 不能大举进场 And that there's a lot of bear sentiment here, but still, you got a tread with caution at this point, because the tape is just too lousy to get aggressive in.
但是 它并不像其他一些预测会出现如此可怕的下跌的预测那样看跌 But, but doesn't feel as bearish as some of the other appundance out there that are that are calling for such a horrible decline.
接下来 让我们来回答你们的问题 看看你们在想什么 From here, let's get to your questions, to what you guys are thinking.
弗雷德在问什么 Uh, so fred's asking, uh, what?
9月14日C-T-V-A 你会不会觉得那个枢轴点太楔了 C-T-V-A on september 14? Would you consider that pivot point too wedged?
感觉我有时会尝到那些楔形饼干的味道 Feel that I sometimes taste those wedges.
通常 当别人问这样的问题时 通常回答你自己的问题 Usually, when somebody asks questions like that, usually answer your own question.
但让我们看一看 那是9月14日 But let's take a look. And that's on september 14.
C-T-V-A 所以在这里摆动一点 C-T-V-A. So swing out a bit here.
哦 我还要提一下 我要提几只我正在关注的股票 所以让我 在回答这个问题之后我会谈论它们 Oh, I'll also mention, I was going to mention a few stocks that I'm looking at here, so let me, I'll talk about those after I answer this question.
呃 14在这里 Uh? So 14th is right here.
嗯 你知道 楔形 你知道 我想说的是 它不是楔形 它只是没有收紧屁股 Um, you know, wedge, you know, I would say that it did, it wasn't wedge as much as it just didn't tighten up a butt much.
在外面过了一天 所以没事 And had that outside day, so it was fine.
我的意思是 我们之前在这里讨论过这个 在学习期间 它来自一个很大的基地 I mean, we talked about this before here, um, during the study session, it came out of a big base.
如果市场更健康 这可能会起作用 但你会得到波动 If the market was healthier, this probably would work, you know, but you're getting that volatility.
现在 有一件事要记住 Now, here's the thing to keep in mind.
你得到这些股票 它们可能来自碱基 甚至像annph这样的东西 你知道 很明显 我想你知道这是一个值得玩味的名字 You get these stocks, they may come out of bases, even something like an ann ph, which, as you know, obviously, I-I think you know that this is A-A-A name worth entertaining.
我写了那篇文章 I did that post on it.
但如果市场变得过于沉重 我们就会出现真正的 你知道 大规模抛售 这可能会破裂 你知道 必须重新调整和收紧 But if the market gets too heavy here, and we get a real, you know, big sell off, this could break apart, you know, and have to reset and tighten.
所以 这就是为什么你要等待 以确保股票不仅形成了基础 但随后它们从基础上突破 它们持有 你会看到另一波 多波股票工作 你会看到牵引力通过文件 你知道 你不会在它们上涨1天 2天 3天或5天或10%之后崩溃 So again, that's why you gotta wait to make sure the stocks are not only forming bases, but then they're breaking out from the basis, and they're holding and you're seeing another wave, and multiple waves of stocks working, and you're seeing that traction with the file through, and you're getting, you know, where you're not just falling apart after they go up for one, two, three days or five or 10 %.
所以我们处在这样一个时期 即使是一个伟大的机构也会失败 仅仅是因为通往市场的道路太多了 So we're in that period where even a great set up is gonna fail, just simply because the way to the market is too much.
所以并不是你的选择标准错了 So it's not that your selection criterias off.
市场只是 现在不是正确的时机 It's that the market is just, it's not the right time.
还有 这个 这个 你知道的 在啤酒市场上你只能屈服于这个 And, uh, this, this is, you know, what you just have to yield to in a beer market.
当它们不起作用的时候 你就像马克·里奇那样 And and when they're not working, you, you do what Mark ritchie's done.
你只要把自己切下来 耐心等待 You just cut back in you and you wait in a stay patient.
我向你保证 这将是一个很好的机会 Um, I assure you a great opportunity is going to come out of this.
它对我的调查比你想象的要快 And it's probing of me sooner than you most think.
让我们来看看 所以有一个问题要问我们两个 关于我在7月15日79美元买入C-E-L-H的事后分析 让我们把它提出来 C-E-L-H Let's see. So as a question for both of us, on post analysis of C-E-L-H-I had bought on july 15 at $79, let's bring that up, C-E-L-H.
追股票被抓了 7月18日 也就是几天之后 我在3607点损失了3 7% Got caught chasing the stock. I was out with this 3.7% loss at 3607 on july 18, which is a couple days later.
几天后 我真正不喜欢我的交易的地方是 我没有试图重新进入你对7月20日和7月27日两个重新进入点的想法 Few days later, what I really didn't like about my trade was I didn't try to re enter your thoughts on the the two reentry points of july 20 and july 27.
让我们 我们要标记所有你给我一堆日期 我们要标记它们 这样每个人都能跟上 So let's, we're going to have to mark all you give me a bunch of dates here, so we're going to have to mark em so everybody can follow.
7月15日是07 15 对吧 所以让我们来这里 So july 15 is 07:15, right? So let's go be here.
这是第一个 对吧 So here's your 1st, right here, right?
然后你说 ChaseHouse被抓了 就出局了 And then you said, um, got caught Chase House, it was out.
7月18日 也就是7月18日 在这里 对吧 And july 18, which would be july 18, right here, right?
对吗 我猜那只持续了一个周末 Is that correct? I guess that went over a weekend.
那是15号 那是18号 That's the 15th. That's the 18th.
七 好的 然后再入场景是7月20日 或者27日 从一个廉价的 Seven. Okay, and then the reentryer scene is july 20, or the 27th, coming out of a cheap
我们看看它在哪 So let's see where that is.
或者20号在这里 让我们往回走 然后是27号 好的 让我看看 Or the 20th be here. Let's to pull back by, and then the 27th, OK, let's see.
让我们缩小一点 So let's zoom out a bit here.
这不算欺骗 首先 这里有很多事情 That's not really a cheat. 1st of all, um, there there's a number of things here
你知道 我觉得这很有问题 that, you know, that I find problematic.
还有 马克 你也可以 对这件事发表意见 And, and, uh, mark, you can also, uh, may be comment on this.
但是 首先 我不确定你为什么这么快就退出了 你知道 我看到了外面的一天 但那真的是一个非常紧的止损 你知道 你真的没有给股票一个机会 实际上 特别是 你买我们 你看 你有角度警告 你有200天的下跌趋势 所以你买了早期的转折 But, 1st of all, I'm not sure why you got out so quickly here, you know, with this, I see the outside day, but that really was a pretty tight stop that, you know, you're really not giving the stock a chance to Actnorally, especially, you're buying us like, you see, you have the angle warning, you have the 200 day in a down trend, so you're buying that early turn.
我不认为这已经调整了 对吧 I don't think this has been adjusted, right?
塞拉正在引进史密斯 Cela is bringing up on a market Smith.
很快就能见到她 And just see her real quick.
确保我说的不是我的屁股 Make sure I'm not talking about my butt here.
嗯 是的 所以是一样的 好了 你的行情开始得早 你已经在没有趋势的情况下提前交易了 所以这很容易让股票回调并停留在stanWeinston所说的很多阶段我们开始回升 但你还没有进入确定的阶段 对吧 Um, yeah. So same thing. All right, so so you got an early turn, so you're already trading it early without the trend, so that could very easily make the stock pull back and stay in what stan Weinston was just referring to a lot of stage once where we are starting to turn up, but you haven't gone into the confirmed stage too yet, right?
现在你说的是再入 我的意思是 我不知道为什么你会停在这里 然后在这个极点上再入 我的意思是 这没有什么意义 So now that you're saying re entry here, I mean, I don't know why you would get stopped out here and then re entry on this pole back by I mean, it just doesn't, it doesn't make much sense.
我们必须在这里销售 然后再进入这里 We to sell here and then re enter here.
这并不算便宜但我明白你的意思了 And then this isn't really a cheap but I see what you're saying here.
你当然可以重新进入 You could have certainly re entered.
我可能不会 如果我想重新进入 应该是28号 而不是27号 I probably wouldn't. If I was to look to re enter, it would have been on the 28th, not the 27th.
我希望看到这种逆转被消除 并获得逆转复苏 I would like to see this reversal get taken out and get the reversal recovery.
所以 你知道的 我觉得这是在演戏 从一开始就不完美 Um, so, uh, you know, I-I think that this was played, you know, uh, not perfectly from the very beginning.
我不知道 你觉得什么有用 I don't know, what do you think work?
是啊 我觉得有点不太理想 Yeah, I would say a little sub optimal.
但我想说的第一点是 因为 我想它是在07 15播放的 你和我都在谈论可能会播放警报 那天我也在看它 But the the 1st point I would make is, cause, I think it was on on 07:15, you and I were talking about possibly putting on by alert, and I was looking at it that day as well.
几天前我在第一个支点就已经拥有它了 真的很小 有一个缺口 I already owned it from a few days earlier at the 1st pivot, really small and a gap.
所以通常情况下 如果你有一个次优入口点 我永远不会去追求一个缺口 即使它是一个很小的缺口 So normally, I, you know, if you have a sub optimal entry point, I'm never gonna chase a gap, even if it's a tiny gap.
然后 果然 你看到它被填满了 And then, sure enough, you see it filled.
实际上 如果你想要理解这个名字 那个回调是一个更好的方法 And actually that pullback by was a better by if you wanted to try and get on board the name.
但如果你要追求这个差距 我会说 你知道 我试图在这里测量它 But if you're going to chase that gap, I would say even, you know, I I'm trying to measure it here.
在我看来 它仍然是6%到7%的低点 没有理由在第二天退出 In my end, it's still six 7% to that low, there's no reason to get out the next day.
这对我来说完全说不通 Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
是的 这有点像一旦你从八号球后面开始 然后你再进入的意义是什么如果如果你进入次优 然后寻找另一个次优再进入 Yeah, it's sort of like once you start behind the eight ball with, like, and then you what's the point of reentering if if you enter sub optimally, then looking for another sub optimal reentry?
你只是在增加你受挫的几率 It's sort of just, you're just increasing your odds of frustration.
是吗 问题是 你有一个次优设置在一个下降趋势中 或者刚刚开始上升 然后你追踪一个差距 你在复合 你知道 次优条件 Yeah? And the problem is just, you have a sub optimal setup that is in a down trend store, or just starting to turn up, and then you trace a gap, you're compounding the, you know, the sub optimal condition.
所以 我想 你知道 也许20号就可以开始了 So, um, I would, you know, maybe make a case for initially by on the 20th.
当然 你在15号的时候还不知道 但是 你知道的 追逐差距 是的 我会的 Of course, you wouldn't have known that on the 15th, But, you know, chasing the gap, yeah, I would.
如果是我 我就会离差距远一点 I would have stayed away from the gap myself a little bit better.
在这里 你收紧了一点 你开始向外移动 然后它就能够 你看 一旦你收紧了它就能够在那里得到一些爆炸的动作 Over here, though, you tightened up a bit, and you started moving out, and then it was able to, you see, once you got that tight was able to get a little bit of explosive action there.
但现在 你看 现在你开始转向上升趋势 所以现在是开始关注股票并寻找基础的好时机 But now, see, now you're starting to turn to an up trend, so it's more it now is a better time to start watching the stock and looking for a base.
然后回到这里 我知道事后来看有点低 但你只是没有确认有动力 Then back here earlier. I know it's lower in hindsight, but you just don't have the confirmation of having the momentum.
让我看看 我正在重读您的书 在第一章中 您提到了来自加拿大的达伦 他是您的第一批学生之一 Let's see, I'm re reading your book, and in the 1st chapters, you mentioned Darren from Canada, who was one of your 1st students.
只是好奇你是否还联系他 他现在怎么样了 Just curious if you still contact him, and how is he doing now?
达伦是我最好的朋友之一 我时不时会和他聊天 Well, darren is one of my wonderful, great friends, and I do talk to him from time to time.
他一直很忙 他也在会计部门工作 是个很棒的人 He's been very busy. He also works on accounting, and he is a great guy.
是的 我确实和他聊过 他做得很好 And yes, I do talk to him so, and he's doing fantastic.
嗯 让我看看两个分数都有问题 Um. Let me see a question for both marks.
迈克尔的问题是 当你为可行的股票设置警报时 你有没有为每只你设置警报的股票提前考虑好风险计划 Michael's asking When you set your alerts for the stocks that are viable, do you have a risk plan thought out ahead of time for each stock you put an alert on for?
或者你是否有一个一般的风险计划 以确定你的警报是否被触发 然后在你进入后调整计划 看看它是如何发挥作用的 Or do you have a general risk plan for whether any of your alerts are triggered, and then adjust a plan after you enter and see how it acts.
最初 我知道 我马上就知道答案了 Initially. I know, I know my answer immediately.
什么是你的吗 嗯 是的 我对每一个可能进入的人都有计划 What's yours? Uh, yeah. I have a plan for every potential entry.
如果我在股票上有一个警报 我也有一个大小 一个止损点 你知道 一个交错止损点 以及我分配给每个股票的总风险金额 So if if I've got an alarm on the stock, uh, I've also got a size and a and a stop that I'm, you know, a staggered stop and a total risk amount that I have sort of assigned to each one.
是的 我 我很清楚我要做什么 但我通常会在价格之前放一个警告有时候 我要么把它放在a也许 尽管有一个枢轴点 但有一天的高点 或者前一天的高点在它之前一点 所以我要看看它什么时候开始穿过那个高点 Yeah, I-I-I pretty much know exactly what I'm gonna do, but I'll usually put an alert just before that price sometimes, um, I'll put it either at a at a maybe, though there's a pivot point, but there's the high of the day, or high of a previous day is just a little bit before it, so I'll see when it starts to move through that high.
或者我将它设置为 比by值低0 20美元或0 30美元 这样当它开始运行时 我就能提前知道 Or I'll just set it at a certain, you know, maybe $0.20 or $0.30 below the by point, just so I have a heads up if it starts to run on
我 嗯 我 我真的准备好了 me, um, and I, and I'm really ready.
所以一旦它开始按点到那个点 你知道 我的手指在扳机上 一旦它按点到那个点 我就开始开枪 我开始开枪 你知道 按命令 So once it starts to get to that by point, you know, my fingers on the trigger, and as soon as it hits that by point back, I fire off, I start firing off, you know, by, uh, by orders.
这就是我的做法 So that's how I do it.
但我完全准备好了 你知道 当股价上涨时 But I'm completely prepared, you know, for the stock, when it hits the price.
我已经确切地知道我要做什么 我要买多少 I already know exactly what I'm going to do and how much I'm going to buy.
呃 让我看看这里 等一下 Uh, let's see here. Uh, hold on.
我这里有个卷轴 I just got a scroll back here.
好了 请传奇投资者们好好想想 All right, so thoughts on this, please legendary investors.
斯坦利喝了米勒酒 来吧 Stanley drunk a miller one, here we go.
警告说 有一个高预期的股票市场将在整个十年持平 Warns that there's a high probated stock market will be flat for the entire decade.
好吧 斯坦利喝了第一 当我 我是 我是索罗组织的顾问给醉鬼磨坊 Okay, stanley drunk 1st. While I was, I was A-I was a adviser to the Soro Organization to drunken miller's.
我的主要顾问 我的主要顾问现在是亿万富翁 Main guys, who, my, my, the main guy who I advise is now a billionaire.
他自己也是个了不起的交易员 Um, and an amazing trader himself.
嗯 嗯 我对索罗斯集团和醉鬼米勒很了解 Um, uh. So I know a lot about the the Soros organization and Drunken Miller.
我可以告诉你 乔治·斯坦利·德瑞克·米勒是我心目中的英雄之一 And I can tell you this George Stanley Drecker Miller is one of my all time heroes.
就对冲基金经理对叛徒的看法而言 他是个惊人的天才 Uh, as far as hedge fund managers are concerned in traitors, he's an amazing genius.
但我可以告诉你这是斯坦利·醉鬼米勒 But I can tell you this that's Stanley Drunken Miller.
不知道 我也不知道十年后我们会是什么样子 Doesn't have a clue, and either do I, um as to where we will be a decade from now.
好吧 如果你不想交易 股票就会变成现金 Okay? And if, if you want, if you want to not trade, stocks are going to cash.
因为有些人 有些人 说我们将在未来十年保持平稳 那么你知道 你正在犯一个巨大的错误 Because somebody, some man, says that we're going to be flat for the decade, well, then you know, you're making, you're making an enormous mistake.
你知道 没人知道 You know, no one knows that.
所以我要补充一点 喝醉酒的磨坊有句名言 他改变主意的速度非常快 非常快 So I would add to mark that drunken mill is famous for saying, he changes his mind very quickly, very quickly.
我们都需要 我们都需要 We all do. We all do.
这就是为什么米勒医生这么了不起 这就是为什么我有这么好的结果 That's why dr Miller is so great, and that's why I've had the great results.
因为我们从不拘泥于一个观点 Because we never get locked into an opinion.
他可以在一个月后 一年后 五年后改变这一点 他可以非常乐观 他可能会 他可能会错的 And he could change that a month from now, a year from now, five years from now, he can be ragingly bullish, and he probably will be, and he will probably turn out to be wrong.
如果你回顾一下 甚至是保罗·琼斯导师 有人会说 哦 保罗·琼斯导师说过这个 Well, if you go back and you look at even Paul Tutor Jones, you know, I've had people say, oh, paul Tutor Jones said this.
好吧 你知道吗 首先 至于预测顶部和底部 由于琼斯 我的记录比保罗要好得多 Well, you know what, 1st of all, as far as calling tops and bottoms, I've got a way better track record than Paul due to Jones.
我的意思是 我没赚多少钱 保罗·考特·琼斯 I mean, I haven't made it much money, is Paul Tutor Jones.
但如果你回头看一看 你知道 他的标记呼叫 他已经死了 错了 But if you go back and you take a look at, you know, his mark calls, he's been dead and wrong.
我是说 他在很多情况下都是大错特错的我也犯过大错 I mean, he was dead wrong about on a number of occasions so and I've been dead wrong, you know.
但是 尽管我们都不是预言家 我们知道六个月后会发生什么 But again, that the though none of us are the are are nostrodamus prognosticators, that we know what's going to happen even six months from now.
你知道 在一天结束的时候 我们都是跟随火车的车尾 我可以向你保证 像喝醉的米勒 雷·达利奥 这些人中的任何一个人都不会坚持自己的观点 只是继续持有现金或继续购买 因为他们认为市场应该这样做 他们会屈服 这就是他们表现如此出色的原因 You know, we're all cabooses following the train at the end of the day, and I can assure you that someone like drunken Miller, ray Dalio, any of these guys are not going to dig in with an opinion and just keep staying in cash or keep buying because, you know, they think the market should do this, they're going to bend with it, and that's the reason why they perform so well.
嗯 那么让我们看看 有没有可能在没有一般市场指数和上升阶段的情况下 为股票干型谷物提供一个宽松的美元环境 你见过这样的场景吗 Um. So let's see, is it possible to have an easy dollar environment for stock stem model grain without the general market indices and a stage to uptren Have you ever seen such a scenario?
绝对的 偶然发生 这种事经常发生 Absolutely. Hap. Usually happens all the time.
在牛市开始时 你会到达股指有时甚至创出新低的地方 In the beginning of a bull market, you'll get where the indexes sometimes are even hitting new lows.
然后我们开始看到股票开始上涨 股票开始运作 And then we start to see stocks setting up, and stocks start working.
所以这完全有可能发生 通常情况下 尽管解耦不会持续很长时间 So that can absolutely happen. Um, usually, though you don't get a decoupling for very long.
一个会赶上另一个 One is going to catch up with the other.
就像市场一样 我们屡创新高 而我在顶部之前就开始看空 And just like with the market, where we were hitting new highs, and I was getting bearish, well in advance of the top.
这是因为我们看到很多股票都在上涨 而且有很多股票都在200日移动平均线以上 That's because we saw a lot of stocks that were topping, and there was both of many stocks above their 200 day moving average.
股市也不稳定 我们看到了很多停止 很多底座故障和枢轴故障 And stocks were volatile. We were seeing a lot of stops and a lot of base failures and pivot failures.
这给了你警告 So that gave you that warning.
这样 当领导者在向上引领时 That way, while the leaders lead on the upside.
这是我在我的第一本书里花了很长时间讲的 Now, this is something that I talk about at great length in my 1st book.
如果你像股票市场向导一样选择交易 在他们的档案中有一个章节是绝对必须阅读的 If you pick up Trade like a stock market wizard, there's a section on their file the leaders that is an absolute must read.
我讲过他们如何在上行方面领先 在下行方面领先 And I talk about how they lead on the upside, they lead on the out downside.
我讲了所有要寻找的东西 And I talk about all the things to look for.
所以你所有的答案 都是关于那个特别的 呃 你知道的 你知道的 问题的细节你需要知道的吗 So all your answers, are there what you need to know about that particular, uh, you know, you know, question in detail?
所以 迈克 我们的好朋友迈克 在问你你是怎么通过石头标记的 So, um, so Mike, uh, our good friend Mike, is asking a how'd you do passing the stone mark?
我们 哦 已经跳过了吗 Are we, oh, past that here?
让它报告无结石情况 Have it report on stone free.
谢谢你的关注 太好了 让我看看 在9月的S-W-A-V上触发了撤退 So thanks for checking in. Great Um, let's see, on triggered pull back by on S-W-A-V on septemberth.
稍等 不好意思 Uh, hold on, sorry about that.
我觉得那是我女儿打来的电话 所以我得接一下 I think that's a call from my daughter, so I might have to get that.
还有一个电话 也就是说这是连续三次的紧急情况 Um, one more call. That means it's an emergency three in a row.
这是个问题 呃 让我看看这里 That's that's a problem. Uh, let's see here.
所以 让我们看看 在9月14日由南北向触发的回调 So is, let's see, on the triggered pullback by on S-W, the on september 14.
13日的价格走势是否会使它更低的低点使它不太可能出现呢 Does the price action on the 13th making a lower low make it less probable then
如果它尊重那十二个卑微的或震动的人呢 if it would have respected the twelve low or the shaker?
实际上 让我们看一看 Actually, let's just take a look at a whole lot.
让我们看看W-A-V 我们说的是9月14日的小品 Let's see us W-A-V, we're talking about the september 14 sketch.
我们标记一下 9月14日就在这里 Let's mark that. Uh, september 14 is right here.
好吧 现在 嗯 价格 13号的价格走势是否降低了它的可能性 Okay, so now, uh, price. Does the price action on the 13th making lower law make it less probable?
好了 这里是第三个低能级 实际上不是第三个低能级 Okay, so you have the 3rd lower low here, which is actually not a 3rd lower low.
这是第二低的低 这是一个更低的 It's a 2nd lower low. That as is one lower lower here.
那天晚上 这不是一个更低级的行为 This was not a lower low on that night.
你12号就在这里 然后13号就更低了 You had right here on the 12th, and then on the 13th was a lower low, um.
所以它太低了 So it was too lower lows.
这没什么区别 And that does not make a difference.
现在 这里没有什么问题 除了它没有花时间收紧这里 Now, now, there's, there's nothing in here that is acting wrong, except that it had not spent the time to tighten up here.
你知道 你只是 你没有时间 你真的 你知道 你的底钓 You know, you just, you hadn't gotten the time that you really, you're really, you know, your bottom fishing.
在这里演奏这个回调实际上是在底部钓鱼 And here playing this pullback by is really bottom fishing it.
所以你可能 通常你在这里想做的是 你知道 开始一个位置 So you probably, and normally what you'd want to do here is, you know, just start a position.
现在 事情是这样的 我知道如果 你知道 如果我们问MarkRichie 我会告诉你他的答案会是什么 Now, here's the thing, and I know if, you know, if we asked Mark Richie, I'll tell you exactly what his answer would be.
如果市场很好 一切都很顺利 他就会涌入这里 试图买下这里 If the market was great, things were going wonderful, you know, he'd plow in here and try and buy this.
它正在从低点回升 但在这样的市场 你要 你要把脚趾伸进水里 如果它成功了 它起飞了 很好 你必须要做 It's coming off the lows. But in a market like this, you're gonna, you're gonna put a toe in the water and and if it works, and it takes off, great, you gotta piece.
如果它继续形成 这里可能会变紧 If it continues to set up, maybe it tightens up here.
你活下来了 这并不能阻止你 You live through it. It doesn't stop you out.
现在它跳出来 取出你加到位置上的这些反转 然后你慢慢地移动到那里 Now it breaks out, takes out these reversals you add to the position, and then you and you incrementally move in there.
我说对了吗 马克吗 Did I get that right? Mark?
我要加上 你知道你刚刚画了什么 I would just add, you know what you just drew in there.
这就是我想看到的一些名字 This is what I would love to see some of these names.
你知道吗 这个测试是我一直在看的 You know, this test W-A v's one I've been watching.
看起来可能是个 你知道的 也许是个关键人物 It looks like it could be a, you know, maybe a key leader.
今年的表现很不错 It's held up really well this year.
如果我们看到这样的情况 而市场 你知道 从低点回升 没有人会接受 If we see a set up like that, while the markets, you know, coming off the lows, No one's gonna take it.
这是正确的 你可以看到马克说的 这是关键 关键字是在市场表现不佳时走出低点 That's right. And and you see what Mark said, that here's the key, the operative word is coming off the lows while the market is doing poorly.
这就是我们想要看到紧凑动作的地方 This is where we want to see the tight action.
这就是你如何发现领先股票的方法 And that's how you spot the leading stocks.
当市场开始走出低点 甚至有时触及更低的低点时 你正在打破这些基础 当它回到 嗯 是什么低价股票做出了巨大的举动 嗯 PC And as the market starts turning off its lows, or even sometimes hitting a lower low, you're breaking out of these basis that when that goes back to, um, what was it the low price stock that made the huge move that would, um, PC?
是的 是的 P是PCY-C 嗯 是的 它实际上是在市场触底的前一天爆发的 PC Yeah, yeah. P was a PC Y-C uh-huh, yeah, which which actually broke out the day before the market made its low.
我想是2010年吧 I think it was, was it 2010?
2010年1月 对吧 我甚至不知道我们是否可以提出这个问题 但是 我相信他们最终会被 呃 被感染 January 2010, right? And I don't even know if we can even bring that up, but, um, that they end up getting, uh, getting acquired, I believe.
但是 不管怎样 嗯 是的 那就是我们想要的 But, but anyway, um, yeah, that that's what we want to look for there.
让我 让我继续 Let me, let me move on.
嗯 你提到有时你可能会使用当天的低点 甚至是某个特定的美元金额来进行短线交易 Um. You mention that sometimes you may use the low the day, or even a certain dollar amount for your short term trades.
你能解释一下你的短期交易背后的数学原理吗 Can you please explain the math behind your short term trades?
数学很简单 就像你做长期交易一样 The math is very simple. You just exactly as you would do with your longer term trades.
你需要算出你的平均收益是多少 你生产了什么 You're going to have to figure out as what you are gaining on average on the upside, what what are you producing?
你知道 如果你是 我不管你是在倒卖 当日交易 无论你在做什么 你都会产生结果 对吧 You know, if you're, I don't care if you're scalping, day trading, whatever you're doing, you're going to be producing results, OK?
这些结果是什么 如果你做了200次交易 平均收益是3% 那么你的成功率是44% What are those results? If those results you just did 200 trades and your average gain was 3 %, well, and your batting average is 44 %.
你不能承受3%的损失 对吧 Well, you can't take 3% losses, right?
这没用的 你是你是你是逆的 It's not gonna work. You're you're you're inverse.
就是这么简单 就是这么简单 So that it's that simple. It's that simple.
我根据两件事来衡量我能得到的好处第一 我实际完成了什么 我的结果说明了什么 这是第一件事 I'm gaging what I can get on the upside based on what two things One, what I'm actually accomplishing, what my results say, which is the number one thing.
其次 市场的主题是什么 And then two, what is the theme of the market?
市场到底发生了什么 What's actually happening in the market?
所以 你知道 当我回到2021年 今年早些时候 我得出的结论是 你知道吗 这些股票将从低到高个位数 有时是低两位数 我必须在这个时候卖出 So, you know, when I go back to 2021, very early in the in the year, I concluded that, you know what, these stocks are going up low to high single digits and sometimes low double digits, that I have to sell right into that.
因为如果我等待 我等待他们回来阻止我在下跌 好吧 你可以 你知道 你可以参考强势来卖出弱势 Because if I wait, and I wait for them to come back and to stop me out on the downside, all right, you can, you can have, you know, consulted the strength to sell the weakness.
如果我那样用后挡呢 If I use a back stop that way?
那么 收益是否大到足以证明风险是合理的呢 well, the gain is it large enough to to justify the the risk?
所以 你知道 你可能会上升5%或6% 你知道 你会迅速上升2%或3% So, you know, you might be up five or 6 %, you know, and you're whisking two, 3 %.
现在如果你等待股票回升 你卖出的时候只会上涨2%到3% And now if you wait for that stock to come back in, well, you'll be selling it only up two or 3 %.
你永远也赚不到钱 所以我得出了这个结论 然后当我开始交易时 我看到 好吧 我捕获了 假设是5% You'll never make any money. So I made that conclusion, and then as I started trading, then I saw, okay, I'm capturing, let's just say 5 %.
我知道我不能接受5%的止损 Well, I know I can't take, I can't take stops of 5 %.
你知道 如果我是50% 我就有50%的击球率 You know, if I'm 50 %, I have 50% batting average.
现在 如果你有80%的击球率 你想要依靠那种精度 这可能是不可持续的 你可以 你可以有一个 Now, if you have an 80% batting average, and you want to count on that type of accuracy, which would probably not be sustainable, you can, you could have an
逆 风险回报关系 但是 但是我还没见过有谁能长期保持 高击球率让我们看看这里 呃 你怎么看EVH的作用 inverse, uh, risk reward relationship, but, but I haven't seen anybody who can maintain, you know, the high batting average for the very long Um, let's see here, uh, what do you think about the action of EVH?
你知道 如果你运行模型 你会 你会很好地了解这里发生了什么 Well, you know, if you're run model or, you know, you're gonna, you're gonna get a good picture of what is going on here.
我也没见过什么违规行为 And I have not seen many violations.
我是说 我觉得 I mean, I think it's
表现得很好 但却被市场拖累了 acting great, and it's being held back by the market.
真的吗 它会不会撞到我们 让我们停在volTilly皮卡上 It will it? Will it hit us stop and stop us out in the vol Tilly pickup.
可能这里的市场真的很拥挤 Possibly the market gets uh real heavy here.
但它现在表现得很正常 But it's acting perfectly normal as a right now.
现在是对冲和买入看跌期权的时候吗 Is this time to hedge and buy a put?
即使对冲 我也不买看跌期权 Well, even when I hedge, I don't buy puts.
我从来都不交易期权 因为对99 9%的交易大众来说 期权都是傻瓜干的 嗯 期权是傻瓜干的 I don't, ever, I don't trade options, because it's a sucker's bat for for 99.9% of the of the trading public, uh, options are for suckers.
呃 对于非常非常非常小的一部分谁能通过期权赚钱呢 Uh, for a very, very, very, very small fraction who can make money in options?
你知道 这不值得 Uh, you know, it's not worth it.
但如果我要对冲 我会通过做空指数来对冲 But if I were to hedge, I'd be hedging by shorting the indexes.
但我不想回避 Uh, but I don't want why to hedge.
我真的 我没有任何可以对冲的头寸 I don't really, I don't have any positions to hedge.
我会有真正的曝光机会 所以 你知道 就用现金 I'll have real exposure. So, you know, just just going cash.
这是一样的 我的意思是 如果你对冲 加上你可以对冲 两边都有损失 It's the same thing. I mean, if your hedge, plus you can take a hedge, and you can lose on both sides.
仅仅因为你的对冲并不意味着除非你完全对冲 那就会违背整个目的 Just because your hedge doesn't mean unless you're perfectly hedged, and then that would be would defeat the whole purpose.
你必须去取现金 You must just go to cash.
但我不担心对冲 So, but I wouldn't worry about hedging here.
呃 你希望在E和PH值中加入什么 Uh? What would you like to see in E and PH to add to the position?
好吧 到目前为止 我们正式处于一个完整的位置 所以 嗯 我不会补充 除非 也许如果市场创造了一个低点 并低于低点 或者 你知道 开始回升 我们经历了一个下跌的一天 然后爆发了 So well, as of now, we're, we're officially at a full position, so, um, I wouldn't be adding unless, maybe if the market made a low and undercut the low, or, you know, started turning up, we got a fall through day, and this broke out.
从这里开始 我可能会说超重 但我想看到我想看到的任何其他时间紧张和价格突破的基础 From here, I might go to overweight, but I'd like to see just what I'd want to see any other time tightness and price breaking out of the base.
这是简单的 同样 这个市场越不稳定 这个紧的右边就越突出 That's simple. And again, the more this market comes off, the more this tight right side sticks out like a sore thumb.
我刚说过在I和IBD中 市场铁匠武器是 我前几天刚讲过 I just said that in the uh in the I and the IBD, the marketsmith weapon are, I just did the other day.
我说 看谁的拇指疼 I said, look for the sore thumbs.
如果像这样收紧 市场是这样的 下跌了几天 比如说 几天 市场是这样的 我们看到这个 If this tightens up like this, and the market does this, and was plunging and coming off for a couple of to say, a couple days, the market does this, and we see this.
这是非常 非常有建设性的行动 That is very, very constructive action.
现在 当市场好转时 假设 从低点反弹 然后爆发 繁荣 Now, as the market turns up, let's say, pops up off the lows, and this breaks out, boom.
我不会进去的 I'm not gonna get in there.
对吧 这是一个潜在的领导者 Right? That's that's a potential leader.
这正是我们想要看到的 我们的领导人应该如何行动 That's exactly we want to see how our leader should act.
我们还在第四阶段还是第一阶段 Are we still on Stage Four or Stage one?
我们在第四阶段 我们绝对是在第四阶段 We're in stage four. We're definitely on Stage four.
我猜你问的是整体市场的情况 我们现在正处于第四阶段的下跌 As far as I guess you're asking about the overall market, we're we're in a Stage four decline right now.
我们和市场也可以很快地从第四阶段进入第二阶段 We and and the market could more very quickly too, from stage four to stage two.
所以你会得到v复苏 就像我们从covid熊市中走出来一样 So you get that v recover like we had coming off the covid bear market.
所以你可能不会得到很多1 So you might not get much of a one.
记住这一点 这是根据道氏理论的另一条腿吗 So keep that in mind. Is this another leg down, as per Dow theory?
我不太相信陶氏理论 I'm not really big on Dow theory.
我当然不是陶氏理论专家 I'm certainly not a Dow theory expert.
所以我是 可能是 So I-I it is, it could be.
我的意思是 如果我们触及另一个低点 那肯定会 你知道 将会 呃 意味着 另一个下跌 如果我们没有触及一个新的低点 我就会去看指数 看看标准普尔指数 你知道 然后我们就会盯着我们的路走得更高 你知道 一系列的或更高的低点 I mean, if we hit another low, that certainly would, you know, would would, uh, mean, another leg down If we don't hit a new low, I'll just go to the indexes to look at the S&P, you know, then we would be stare stepping our way higher and making a, you know, a series of or or a higher low.
所以 你知道 这取决于这里发生了什么 但我们得到了一个 你知道 低于50天 So, you know, it depends on what happens here, but we are getting a, you know, below the 50 day.
我们已经一直保持在200度以下了 We're already staying below the 200 all this time.
我 正如他们多次指出的 在200点以下 木工正在下降 好吧 我们没有看到很多股票设置 I, as they pointed out many times, where below the 200, the joiner is declining, all right, and we don't see a lot of stock setups.
所以当你看到所有这些情况 美联储提高利率时 你没有任何理由变得激进 So when you have all that that picture and the and the fed raising rates, you don't have any reason to get aggressive.
我们已经说过无数次了 And we've said that, you know, literally a million times.
我看到你们中的一些人真的 真的回答了七八个问题 I see some of you guys are literally, are literally entering in like seven or eight questions.
我 我得去找其他人 And I'm, I have to get to other people.
很抱歉 但我只会回答你的一个问题 I'm sorry, but I'm going only going to answer one of your questions.
嗯 所以我们也要给别人机会 Um? So we got, we got to give other people a turn too.
让我们来看看 你是否曾在你的个人账户中使用过sqq或Q-o-d或其他对冲 Let's see. Do we, have you ever use sq Q or Q-O-D and other or other hedge in your personal accounts?
我做的事 我 但我没有 I do. I, but I don't.
我不喜欢 我从来没有 我不应该说从来没有 但几乎从来没有使用杠杆TFS或反向 I don't. I never. I shouldn't say never, but almost never use the leveraged TFS or the inverse.
当我很矮的时候 我喜欢变矮 所以我只是把直径变短 When I'm short, I like to be short, so I just short the dia.
我卖空SPI你为什么标记 I short the SPI Why you mark?
我觉得你可能用的是倒数 You probably use the inverse, I would think.
或者 不 我不知道 我不用逆 Or maybe, no, I don't. I don't use the inversity.
TFS 嗯 是的 我要么短拍 呃 间谍 或者有时我会用这个 如果他也有特色 但它只是一个定向棒 TFS Uh, yeah. I'll either short, uh, yeah, the spy, or sometimes I'll use this if he features as well, but it's just a directional bat.
相同 好的 嗯 所以 呃 市场 Same. Okay, um. So, uh market.
你在你的S-P-Y长期头寸中使用止损吗 Do you use stop losses for your S-P-Y long term positions?
如果有 他们放在哪里 If so, where they placed on?
你会如何处理长期的仓位混乱 What would you do with your long term mess by position?
万一这变成一个更深的熊市呢 In case this becomes a deeper bear market?
好吧 你现在只能事后诸葛亮了 Well, you're only going to know that in hindsight right now.
就像我说的 你只需要25%的投资 嗯 你知道 我只需要那25% As I said, you only want to be about 25% invested, um, you know, I on that 25 %.
你知道 我可能不会用太多止损 You know, I probably wouldn't use much of a stop loss.
除非 如果你得到 趋势模型向下 嗯 你知道 变成一个单元格 你当然可以 嗯 你知道 你可以 嗯 在那上面使用一个停止 然后继续使用趋势模型 嗯 Unless, if you get, the trend model turns down, um, you know, turns to a cell, you certainly could, uh, you know, could uh, use a uh, a stop on that, and just and stick with the trend model, um,
但是 你知道 当然 你不会有很大的损失 因为你只有25%的头寸 but, you know, and of course, you wouldn't have a very big loss, because you only have a 25% position.
嗯 再一次 如果你赢了美元平均成本 那么 你知道 我可能会坚持25% Um, again, if you're won the dollar cost average, then, you know, I probably just stick with that 25 %.
而且 你知道 如果我们从现在再下降10%或15% 你知道 你说的不是一个巨大的损失25% And, you know, if we go down another ten or 15% from here, you know, you're near talking not a huge amount of loss of a 25%
仓位 10% 2 5% 这不是一个巨大的损失 position, 10 %, two and a half percent, it's not a huge loss.
然后你会发现 随着条件的改善 还有风险模型和长期模型 And then you would look to add, you know, as conditions improved, and the and the uh, and the risk models and the long term model.
但问题的答案是我能停下来吗 But the answer a question Do I you stop?
是的 你在我的每一个头寸上都止损了吗 Yes, are you stop losses on every position, on every position that I place?
我想到了一个车站 I have a stop in mind.
至于 你知道 S-P会被关注 你知道 我会更多地关注 你知道 趋势模型 As far as, you know, the S-P would be concerned, you know, I would be looking more to, you know, the, uh, the trend model.
此时此刻 让我们看看edsasin可以使用更有用的 At this point. Let's see eds asin could use more helpful.
可以使用更多的帮助来识别异常和正常行为 特别是在按点回调到枢轴的过程中 Could use more help recognizing abnormal versus normal behavior, particularly during pullbacks to the pivot by points.
一般来说 我还是要降低风险 如果我对确定的概率有更多的了解 我就会更有兴趣持有 I generally still have to reduce risk with like, more appetite to hold if I had more understanding of determined the probability.
最新的例子 EVH我今天早上卖了一半 因为它拉回枢轴 Latest example, EVH I sold half this morning as it pulled back to the pivot.
所以 你知道 这就是为什么我们有建模器 So, again, you know, that's why we have Modeller, you know.
如果我们运行monolert 我不知道 我刚才没有在这里运行modeler 但我愿意说 通过观察这个monoler是根据我的眼睛编程的 这不会显示出很多违规 一个modeler And if we run monolert Um, I-I don't know, I-I didn't run modeller here just now on this, but I would be willing to say, by looking at this and seeing as monoler is is is programmed based on my eyes, uh, this would not show many violations a modeler.
你只是回到了突破的位置 在这个位置 市场一直异常疲软 And you're just pulling back to the breakout, where the market has been exceptionally weak.
我的意思是 如果你对比一下市场 我们刚刚下跌了1300点 接近1300点 或者继续下跌 而这只股票刚刚回到突破点 I mean, if you look at the market versus this, we just had a 13 hundred point, close to 13 hundred point decline, or following through to the downside, and this stock is just pulling back to the breakout.
所以这并不是很反常 So that's certainly not acting very abnormal.
但你看 这可能是你不想失去更多的地方 所以你说 嘿 我要走了 我要在这里切掉并跑掉 或者撤回 你可以稍后再加 But look, it might be where you just don't want to You don't want to lose any more, so you say, hey, I'm gonna go, I'm gonna cut and run here, or pull back, and you can always add back later.
这没什么不对的 你知道 这并不是一个完美的决定 There's nothing wrong with that. You know, it's not like this perfect decision.
这是他们必须做出的决定 是的 从数学上讲 你必须阅读图表 根据图表做出的决定比其他人更好 It's really their decisions that have to be made, yes, mathematically, and you got to read the charts, and there are better decisions than others based on the charts.
然而 你仍然要根据自己的风险承受能力进行交易 However, you still have to trade according to your own risk tolerance.
而且 你知道 你可能只是想 你知道 听着 我不 我只是不想在这里有更多的损失 And, you know, you may want to just, you know, look, I don't, I just don't want any more loss here.
我 我也不知道你的情况是怎么回事 I don't, I don't know what your situation is going into this too.
我的意思是 如果我在水下 那么我更有可能在小幅回调时卖出 也许我会更敏感 如果事情顺利的话 我会更宽容 I mean, if I'm under water, then I'm gonna be much more likely to to sell on a smaller pullback, and maybe I'm gonna be, you know, much more sensitive, and I'm gonna be more forgiving if things are working.
但就股票本身而言 这只股票确实没有做错什么 Uh, but as far as just looking at the stock itself, this stock really has not done anything wrong.
嗯 我会 我会对你所有的股票运行单一警报 这样你就能学会如何读懂行情 Um. And I would, I would just run monolert on all your stocks, and that's how you learn how to read what's going on.
正常情况下 当你在模型上看到很多红色或者没有绿色时 这些都是违规的 Normal, when you start seeing a lot of red on model or with no green, those are violations, okay?
而当相反的时候 你得到了证实 And when the opposite, you've got confirmations.
这就是我围绕枢轴点建模器要做的 And that's what's gonna I certainly around the pivot points modeler.
这就是我发现modeler最有价值的地方 因为我真的在使用我在monolert中看到的那些东西 That's where I find modeler to be most valuable, because I'm really using those things that I'm looking at in monolert.
我主要是看那些 爆发后的读数 I'm mainly looking at that those, uh, readings post breakout.
在股票被评为明星后的最初几周内 那是我最喜欢那类东西的时候 And within the 1st couple weeks after a star by a stock, that's when I I'm mostly keen in on that stuff.
这就是你现在在这个特质中的位置 So that's exactly where you are now in this trait.
你看 安吉拉一号 四到五个月后客户就很容易赚到钱了 See, angela 1st, four to five months after the client are easy dollars.
那么让10%到20%的利润 然后是5%到10%的利润 So let ten to 20% profit, then five to 10% profit.
再说一次 我不知道这是什么意思 所以我不能回答 Again, I have no idea what that means, so I can't answer.
我是说 这更像是一种声明 I mean, that's more of a statement.
我看到你有一个问号 但是 嗯 让我先试着解释一下 在下跌后的四到五个月里 美元在下跌后很容易贬值 我完全不明白 I see you have a question mark, but, uh, let me try to decipher that for 1st, four to five months after decline are easy dollars after decline that I don't understand at all.
是的 我不明白你的问题 Um, yeah, I don't understand the question.
安吉拉 我很抱歉 但你知道 如果你能重做 或者我们会回来 给我们发邮件 我们会发邮件的 鲍勃 我们会尽量理解你的要求 Angela, I'm sorry, but you know, if you can maybe redo that, or we'll get back down, email us, and we'll make an email, bob, and we'll try to understand exactly what you're asking.
我们 会吗 不过我确实想为你回答这个问题 We, will we? I do want to answer that question for you, though.
看这里 那么 您能解释一下您是如何开发模型手册并在以后使用它们的吗 在这段停工时间花时间学习 Let's see here. So can you please explain how you develop your modelbook and use them later, taking time to learn in this down time?
是啊 我是说 我所有最赚钱的股票 所有我做过的股票交易 你知道 你知道 我 我都做了记录这就是事后分析 Well, yeah, I mean, you know, I-I all the best winning stocks, all the, all the stock trades that I do, um, you know, you know, I-I-I keep a record of that, and and, um, that's post analysis.
然后一本模型书就是建立那些表现最好的股票的图表 那些波动最大 最快的股票的图表 这些股票有 你知道的 你知道的 那些波动是 呃 根据你的规则是可以通过的 And then a model book is just building charts of the stocks that work the best, the stocks that made the biggest, the fastest moves, of that had the, you know, the the set ups, you know, priors, those moves that were, uh, were byable according to your rules.
你试图找到 你知道 模型股票是什么样子的 You're trying to find, you know, what that model stock set up looks like.
你可以从ornail的书和我的书开始 And you could start with ornail's book and my books.
如果你参加交易大师课程 你会有500页的练习册 里面有大量的模型 If you come to the master trader program, you have a 500 page workbook with tons of models in there.
然后你开始建立你自己的 你知道 你就从那里开始 And then you start building your own, you know, and you and you just continue from there.
嗯 你可以回头看一看 你知道 每年的最佳获奖股票 然后回头看 Um, you can go back and just take a look at, you know, the the best winning stocks of each year, and go back, look
对于基础 寻找它们可行的点 并满足较低国家点的标准 并开始标记这些图表并建立自己的书籍 for the bases, look for the points at which they were viable and met that criteria for lower country points, and start marking those charts up and and building your own books.
啊 让我想想 Excelee看起来真的要走了 Ah, let's see. Excelee does look, actually to be going
转向下行 意味着进一步下行 to a turn to the downside, suggesting further downside.
我不知道它会不会下沉得更厉害 但是它 你知道 很明显它没有在这里保持它的主元 对吧 I-I don't know if it's gonna go down more, but it, you know, obviously it didn't hold its pivot here, right?
但这仍然是在构建右侧 所以它还没有失败 So, but this is still building a right side, so it hasn't failed.
我的意思是 这只是建立一个正确的一面 I mean, it's just building a right side.
如果它在这里收紧一点 然后从那里爆发 这将是建设性的 If it's tightened up here a bit and then broke out from there, that would have been constructive.
但是你会得到我们所说的枢轴漏 所以你在这里漏了一点 但你仍然在右边支撑着 But you're getting some what we call pivot leakage, so you're leaking off a bit here, but you're still holding up on the right side.
这还在通过VCP 所以还没有崩溃 This is still going through a VCP, so it hasn't fallen apart yet.
至于它将为它做什么 我不知道 As far as what it's going to do for it, I have no idea.
我是说 如果我知道 我就成万亿富翁了 I mean, if I knew that, I'd be a trillionaire.
我和你一样 只是个凡人 我是kabus Um, I'm, I'm a mere mortal like you, and I'm a kabus.
我必须使用 我必须使用止损 我必须被甩来甩去 争取位置 就像马克·里奇和其他人一样 And I have to use, I have to use stops, and I have to get whipped around and jockey for position, just like Mark Richie and just like everybody else.
只是想告诉你 雷·达里奥也是 Just to let you know, so does Ray Dahlio.
斯坦利·醉鬼米勒也是如此 威廉·莫尼埃尔也是 So does Stanley Drunken Miller. So did William Moniel.
杰西·利弗莫尔也是 你知道的 一个佛也一样如果他是做交易的 然后又活过来了 So did Jesse Livermore. And so did, and so would A-A-A, you know, a Buddha if he was trading and came back to life?
不 没有人会知道股票的去向 No, nobody is going to know where the stock going.
这就是为什么你会停下来 我们看看 长期风险模型呢 That's why will you stops. Let's see, how about long term risk model?
50% 我不知道那是什么意思 50 %? I don't know what that means.
让我们看看我应该投资多少 Um let's see how much should I invest?
四个 一个K-S-P500指数 一个 我不能告诉你 Four One K-S-P 500 index, one I-I can't, I can't tell you that.
那是你的决定 嗯 你知道的 That's your decision. Um, you know.
所以我能告诉你的是 你知道 现在 基于证据的权重 我不会超过25% So what I can tell you is that, you know, right now, I wouldn't be more than 25% based on the weight of evidence.
我们仍然处于非常谨慎的状态 We're still in a very, we're still in a cautious mode.
所以 我个人的建议是 你说你的投资很轻 甚至可能是100%的现金 但最多 你知道 可能是25%的投资者 So I-I, my personal recommendation would be, you know, that you state you're very light, or maybe a hundred percent cash even, but the the most, you know, maybe 25% investor.
现在 让我们看看 嗯 如果你有100股股票来保持市场的脉搏 你会买多少股 Right now, let's see, um, if you have a hundred shares of stock to keep the pulse of the market, how many shares would you buy?
或者你下次买的时候会是什么位置 Or what would your position as be for your next buy?
如果情况开始好转 If things start to improve again?
你想要的是什么 这一定很重要吗 It it that must rather matter matter, is what yours would be?
我不知道 我们没有一百声欢呼 I-I don't know. We don't A hundred cheers.
有一美元一英里 你知道 按单子算 There's a dollar a mile, you know, that goes along lists.
100股4000美元的股票和100年10美元的股票是不一样的 A hundred shares of a $4000 stock would be different than a hundred years of a $10 stock.
你知道 它的位置大小 你知道的 位置大小 You know, its position sizing. So, um, you know that that, you know, position sizing.
我的书里有一整节 我就是通过读这一节来了解如何最优地定位尺寸 There's a whole section of my book, and that's what I would read to get your, you know, to learn about how I optimally position size.
嗯 让我们看看 很明显 我读哪个顺序真的重要吗 Um, let's see, very mark, does it really matter which order I read?
你的书吗 我在想贸易一号 Your books? I got thinking Trade 1st.
交易新手 爱书 New to trading. Loving the books.
所以 好吧 没关系 因为你知道为什么你要读很多遍 MPA So, well, it doesn't matter, because you know why you got to read em all many times.
你知道 我的我的书 乐高钉子书 You know, my my book, lego nails books.
它们很深 其中蕴含着大量的智慧和经验 They're very deep. There's, there's a tremendous amount of wisdom and experience in there.
它比在某些领域看起来要复杂得多 And it's much more complex than than it might may seem in certain areas.
那些书里有很多答案 Uh, lots of answers in those books.
所以你需要一遍又一遍地读 So you need to read them over and over.
所以这真的不重要 因为你需要读它们 你知道 我会说每本书至少读五到十遍 你知道 我认为 甚至是理解整本书的第一个基础 任何一本书的任何一本书 让我们看看 阻力最小的线总是水平的吗 So it really doesn't matter, because you need to read them, you know, I would say a minimum of five to ten times each, you know, to even get, I think, a 1st base of understanding what's in that entire book, of any of any of the books, let's see, is the line of least resistance always horizontal?
它也可以是下降或上升的趋势线吗 Can it also be down or up trend line?
这是我听过的最有趣的问题之一 That's That is one of the most interesting questions I've ever heard.
我甚至不确定我是否理解这意味着什么 但这非常有趣 I'm not even sure if I understand what that means, but it is very interesting.
哦 马克 你怎么解释呢 Uh, mark? Well, how do you interpret that?
我认为他们的意思是 就像肯尼说的 趋势线是阻力最小的线 I think what they're meaning is, like Kenny, say, a trend line be the line of least resistance.
就像你说的那样 As you talk about it verses you.
你通常倾向于画更多的水平线 但你会 你会画一些 你知道 一些向下的线 You normally tend to draw more horizontal lines, but you'll, you'll draw some, you know, some down trending ones.
是的 它是对角线吗 像这样 还是对角线 Yes. So can it be diagonal, like that, or diagonal?
对吧 好吧 听起来是这样的 我们不确定 Right? Okay, all right, yeah, that's what it sounded like us, wasn't sure?
嗯 所以 所以 是的 在某种程度上是可以的 但是 你知道 不是就我的判断而言 Um, so, so, yes, it can be to a certain extent, but, you know, not for as far as how I determine it.
嗯 还远着呢 这也取决于时间框架 UM, it's not nearly. It depends on the time frame too.
就像利弗莫尔在某种程度上更多地使用枢轴点 像这样 Like Livermore was using pivot points more in a way, like this.
我再给你们看一点它的枢轴点看看我们是如何做到这一点的 I'll show you a little more pivot point it makes see how we make the low right here.
让我给你看这里 所以你在这里做低点 你标记 然后你收回 然后你再次上升 Let me show you here. So you make the low here, you mark up, then you pull back, and then you turn up again.
这里应该是利弗莫尔 This is, this would be livermore's by right there.
你看 他正在寻找转折点 我正在寻找基础建设 See, he was looking at turning points where me, I'm looking for the base to build out.
我正在寻找正确的一面 因为这还为时过早 I'm looking for that right side to build out and to because this is premature.
现在 我不知道利弗莫尔是否在这次反弹中进行了交易 Now, I don't know if Livermore, you know, was trading out right into this rally.
你知道 他试图通过股票 很多时候 在上升趋势的低点 然后交易它们 也许是更大的波动 He was trying to get, you know, by the stocks, a lot of times, off the lows that were in up trends, and then trade em for, maybe for bigger moves.
你知道 20世纪二三十年代我还没出生 但我对利弗莫尔做了很多研究 You know, I wasn't around in the 1920s and thirties, but I've done a lot of study of Livermore.
理查德·斯米顿买下了利弗莫尔的所有版权 他是我的一个非常好的朋友 我们在利弗莫尔讨论了数百个小时 Richard Smitten, who bought all the rights to livermore, was a very good friend of mine, and we discussed Livermore at for hundreds of hours.
所以我对利弗莫尔有很多了解 但是我可以告诉你 嗯 你知道 它仍然是水平的 永远都是这样看的 就在这里 你知道 作为主轴 嗯 And so I understand a lot about Livermore, but I could tell you that, um, you know, that would still, that would be horizontal, evermore would be looking at like this, right here, you know, as the pivot um,
突破这一层 当你在上面做标记的时候 拉回来 然后取出高的部分所以我水平使用它的方法是 如果 and and breaching this level, as you mark up, pull back, and then take out the high So the way I would use it horizontally is, if
让我看看能不能找到这样的东西 let me see if I can find something that sets up that way.
就在这里 在这里 我不是这样看它 尽管它还是符合我这样看它 Would be like right here. So right here, and I I'm not looking at it like this, although it still sort of meets that I'm looking at it like that.
可以说 它同时破坏了两者 但我的更多的是放置 And it sort of breaches both at the same time, if you say, but mine is more of putting.
这就是利弗莫尔谈到时间和价格的地方 And this is where where Livermore talked about time and price.
当我研究利弗莫尔的一些作品时 他似乎更看重价格而不是时间 And when I studied some of livermore's work, it seemed like he was more on price than time.
我所做的是 我真的研究了时间元素 甚至比 我认为 奥尼尔是真正的一个 And what I did was, is I really studied the time element, even more so, I think, than And O'neil is really the one.
我想 谁是先驱者 或者甚至是吉勒 I think, who is the pioneer, or maybe even Giller?
奥尼尔和吉勒 当然 吉勒是其中之一 Well, o'neil and Giller, which, of course, giller is one.
没有人影响了奥尼尔 他们是时间分析的先驱 他们有了右边的形式并且真正理解了供给中的人 递减到市场的规律 No one who, uh, influenced O'neil, they are the pioneers of time analysis, of of having that right side form and really understanding the law of supplying the man in supply, diminishing to market.
这就是你把它们放在一起的地方 你开始想到 你知道 可能是水平线 也可能是对角线 And that's where you put em all together, you start coming up with, you know, the the confluence of, possibly horizontal lines, and also, uh, diagonal lines.
但我觉得你没必要为此担心 But I-I don't think you really need to worry about that.
你知道吗 我几乎所有的交易都有一个水平支点 You know, I almost everything that I trade goes through a horizontal pivot.
嗯 这给了你所有你需要的信息 Um. And that gives you all the information that you need.
嗯 让我们看看我REX被认为是一个权力的游戏 Um, let's see what im REX be considered a power play.
前几天我只是在看imRX 因为 哦 实际上 不是这个 I just was looking at im RX the other day because, oh, actually, no, that's not it.
我在看另一个 I was looking at a different one.
我以为我看到的就是这个 I thought that was the one I was looking at.
现在 预览是什么 之前的库存是多少 Now, what was the preview? What was the stock that we had previously?
我是X-R 也许我不记得了 你们有人记得 但它也说了一点更正 I am X-R, maybe I don't remember, one of you guys remember, but it's also saying a little correction.
这个 不 这不是我要找的股票 This one here. No, this isn't the stock I was looking at.
这是电源板吗 看 看这200天有多陡峭 Is this a power plate? Well, look, look how steep the 200 days so right there.
这是个问题 嗯 看看你是如何把所有的供应都放在左边 右边 你有 这是一个低价的股票 当然 这是一个 低质量的股票 That's that's a problem. Um, look how you have all this supply very close to the left, right, and you've got, it's a low price stock, which puts it in the, of course, in the, uh, lower quality.
所以从这个角度来看 这里的推力 是的 它可以 So looking at it just from a standpoint of this, this thrust up here, yes, and it could.
它还不是一个强大的 因为它还没有横向移动 呃 呃 未能纠正超过 呃 20% And it's not a powerful yet, because it hasn't move sideways and, uh, um, fail to correct more than, uh, 20 %.
这才是真正的关键 That's the that's the real key.
看 关键在于力量的发挥 它如此强大的原因 不是因为推力 而是因为推力之后缺乏修正 See, the key is that the power play, the reason why it's so strong, is not because of the thrust, it's because the lack of correction after the thrust.
所以一旦股票横盘移动 现在的股票是200% 你会认为会有获利回吐 对吧 So once the stock move sideways, and now a stock that's of 200 %, you would think there would be profit taking, right?
应该有大量的供应进入市场 每个人都能获得巨大的利润 当供应开始进入市场时 所有人都离场逃跑 我们的股票只会跌12% There should be all this supply that comes to market, everybody's got this big profit, and the minute that starts coming in, everybody cuts and runs, we'll get the stock only cracks 12 %.
这句话是什么意思 没有卖家 What is that saying? No sellers.
不 所有流入的大笔资金都被冻结了 这意味着有大事发生 对吧 No. So all this big money that came in is holding, and that means something's going on big, right?
这里有什么大事发生了 或者在做长远的打算 在做更大的打算 没有卖出 There's something going on big or playing for the long move, for the bigger move here, and there's no selling.
这就是你想要的 你想要的是那些卖不出去的股票 And that's what you want. You want to be in stocks that have that dearth of selling.
所以回拉和巩固是等式中非常重要的部分 So the the pull back and the consolidation is the really important part of the equation.
我先不放这个 但我们可以看一下 So I would not play this yet, but it's one that we certainly can watch.
但这是一个非常强劲的下降趋势 所以你要小心 But it's in a very strong down trend, so you gotta be careful.
让我想想 派翠克 我是新来的 OK, let's see, patrick, I'm new here.
爱到目前为止 但我想知道 M-R在交易中想要什么 Love it so far. But wondering, what is M-R looking for to get in trade?
因为漂亮的设置并不奏效 Because beautiful setups aren't working well.
我也在找同样的东西 I'm looking for the same thing.
马克人都很刻薄 他在看我95%的交易都来自于重点名单上的人 Uh, mark men are mean, he's looking at And 95% of my trades are coming off of the names on focus list.
寻找 你知道 高质量的商品来自较低的扫描点 Looking for, you know, the high quality merchandise coming out of lower scanry points.
你说过95% 我不确定我跟你说了什么 You said, you said 95 %. I'm not sure what I told you.
我说的是 你知道 我大部分交易的90%到95%都是相同的 I was saying that, you know, 90 to 95% of most of my trades are all coming off the focus list the same.
我们都在看同样的符号 伙计们 You know, we're all looking at the same symbols, guys?
是的 我们是 是的 我们是 Yes, we are. Yes we are.
不同的是时间 可能在位置 大小和曝光 The differences is timing, maybe in in position, sizing and exposure.
你知道 马克一直在缓和他对突破的热情因为他还没有获得足够的动力说 嘿 这是有效的 You know, mark has has just been tempering his enthusiasm for breakouts because he just hasn't gotten the traction to say, hey, this is working.
你知道 他把筹码放进去的速度变慢了 你知道 就像看着一只手长大一样 You know, he's, he's being slower to move his chips in, you know, it's like watching a hand develop, you know.
他 他不把蛋蛋拿到河上是不会进来的 He's, he's not shoving in until he's got the nuts on the river.
有些人推了预翻牌 你知道 我在这里说的是扑克术语 他们把筹码塞进去 他们通常会有一个更不稳定的筹码堆 你知道吗 Some guys shoving pre flop, you know, and I'm talking to poker terms here, and they shoved their chips in, you know, and they're going to, they're usually going to have a more volatile chip stack, you know?
他们会有这个 这是你的 你的堆栈 They're going to have that. That's your, your your stack.
不稳定的 好吧 你知道 有些人等着吃坚果 Volatilly. Well, you know, some guys wait for the nuts, you know.
在市场中 你不需要欺骗任何人 And see that with the market, you don't have to bluff anybody.
就像玩扑克一样 在你抓住蛋蛋等着有保证的手之后 It's like in poker. After you hold for the nuts and you wait for A-A guaranteed hand.
人们开始知道这一点 他们开始了解你的游戏方式 People start to know that, and they start to know how you play.
但在市场上 你没有这些 But with the market, you don't have that.
你可以等坚果 也可以等完美 You can wait for the nuts, you can wait for the perfect.
你甚至都没有 你没有支付时间 There you're not even. You're not paying time.
你没有付钱给阿姨 玩这个游戏没有成本 而且另一边也没有人读懂你 读懂你的秘密 You're not paying aunties. There's no cost to play, and there's nobody on the other side reading you, reading your tells,
所以你可以等待最好的安排 so you can just wait for the best setups.
马克很聪明 能理解这一点 Mark smart enough to understand that.
他很久以前就发现了这一点 这就是为什么他的不利因素很少 而且回报很高 He he figured that out a long time ago, and that's why he has such little downside and makes makes these big returns.
因为他是他的他有耐心 有纪律 Because he's his he's patient, he's disciplined.
前提是你要有耐心 And that's if you can be patient.
就是这样做的 That's the way to do it.
就是这样 这是这是最容易拿到钱的方法 That's the way. That's the that's the way to get the easiest money.
嗯 让我们看看这里 核过程 Um, let's see here. Nuclear process.
我买了加拿大股票 不幸的是 我不能提这个 I bought Canadian stock sap. Unfortunately, I can't bring that up.
我能听听你的分析吗 你的分析师 Um, can I get your analysis, your analyst?
嗯 所以 我们移开 这是我们交换的吗 Um. So, away we move. That is, is that on our exchange?
抱歉 我猜 S-A-P让我看看 等等 把我们刮到这儿来 I'm sorry, I guess, S-A-P Let me just see if that, uh, hold on, scraping us up here.
这是一家德国开发商 所以我不知道 That's a German developer. So I don't know.
我不知道这个符号是不是用错了 I don't know if I think that's the wrong symbol.
我提出来了 如果这是你的标志 我绝对不会买 I'm bringing it up, and if it, if this is your symbol, it's definitely not one I would buy.
你正处于下跌趋势的尖锐阶段 所以我不能对此发表评论 You're in a sharp stage for a down trend, so I can't comment on that.
呃 让我想想 很明显 假设我的平均收益是4%收益平均损失是2 3 Uh, let's see. So obvious, say my average return is 4% and the gains average loss is 2.3.
我是否应该将目标锁定在4%以上 然后看看我是否能够从中获得动力 Should I aim to make gains quick profits above that 4% and see if I'm able to gain traction from there?
好吧 你知道 再看一遍 我不能给你答案 Well, you know, look again, I can't give you that answer.
你必须看一看 看看在你获得这些收益之后发生了什么 You have to take a look and see what's going on after you've taken these gains.
我的意思是 你是在桌子上留下了一大笔钱 还是股票跟随并出现更大的波动 I mean, are you leaving a bunch on the table, or stocks following through and making bigger moves?
你知道 如果是这样的话 那么你必须做后期分析 看看 也许你走的是完美的一步 You know, if that's the case, then you have to do post analysis and see, maybe you're making perfect moves.
也许你所持有的每只股票 大约4%或5% 之后就会暴跌 Maybe every stock you're in, around four or 5 %, plummets right after.
我不知道 我不知道我的股票是什么 但你的数学 你知道的 很好 I don't know. I don't know what stocks are in I-I, but your math, you know, is good.
你把损失控制在收益的一小部分 You're keeping your losses at a fraction of your of your gains.
你的收益显然不是很大 但也许你是个日内交易者 你欠了很多钱 Your gains obviously aren't very big, but maybe you're a day trader, and that's, you know, you owes a huge numbers.
所以我需要更多的信息 但这是最基本的 So I would need more information, but that's, that's the basics of it.
什么时期 你们用哪个时期来计算平均成交量 What period? What period do you use for average volume?
我用50周期 你可以用30 即使很好 I use the 50 period. You can use up 30, even as fine.
她问的是 当你持有现金 等待市场好转时 你会把钱存入一个能产生回报的账户吗 She is asking, when you are in cash, waiting for the market to improve, do you put your money into an account that generates a return?
你有什么建议吗 What do you suggest to do?
我刚把钱投进去 I just put my money in.
如果如果我对市场很不看好 我就会拿出一部分钱 买国库券之类的 通常都是短期的 Well, if if I'm really negative on the market, you know, I-I move a portion of my money out, uh, into, you know, treasuries or something that, you know, it's usually very short term.
我最长的外出时间是三个月 The most longest I usually go out is three months um.
现在 我有一些国库券 三个月到期 或者支付3% 3%+%嗯 Right now, I-I own some treasuries, three months out, or paying three, three plus percent um.
然后 你知道 当情况好转时 我会往账户里存更多的钱 但我确实有一个最低金额 我一直都在我的账户里 And and then, you know, when conditions improve, I put more money into the account, but I do have a minimum number that I just keep in my account at all times.
它是 你知道 它是 它是数百万 它一直在那里 It's, you know, it's, it's multi millions, and it's in there all the time.
无论货币市场在经纪公司支付多少 这就是我得到的 And whatever the money market is paying at the brokers firm, that's what I get.
不过 如果市场进入一个非常强劲的碗状市场 我会从我的 你知道 我的现金资本中拿出更多筹码 并将其转入账户 If the market got into a really strong bowl market, though, I will get more of my chips out of my, you know, my, uh, cash capital, and move it into the accounts.
呃 让我们看看 好的 一个xsM还是 Uh, let's see, okay, a xs M or?
不 我在14号晚上买了一套 No, bought a xs M night 14 from a low sheet.
我们把它调到1号 XSM Let's bring it up 1st. A XSM.
我只有大概五到十分钟的时间了 我要跑一圈 And I do have, I only got about maybe five or ten more minutes, and I got a, got a run here.
嗯 在9点14分 我们在图表上标记一下 我知道在哪 Um. So on 09:14, let's mark that on the chart, which I know where that is.
就在这里 是的 我们看一下 低 便宜 主要是因为强度表现出来了 It's right here. Yep. And let's see, low cheap, primarily because the strength is exhibiting this.
左边的供给是次优的 所以马克和我 我们讨论过这个 The supply to the left make this a sub optimal by So of Mark and I, we, uh, you know, talked about this.
这周 他跟我提过这事当时我还在动 He mentioned it to me as this was moving, um, this week.
嗯 我不认为 我再想一遍 我给你的答案和我之前给过的一样 Um, I don't think, I think again, I'm give you the same answer I gave before.
我从MarkRichie那里得知 市场行情不错 And I kind of spoke from Mark Richie, um, in a good market.
我可能会从这里进去 你知道你从哪里进去的吗 I'm probably going in right here, you know where you went in?
当它在这个市场上开始上升时 我将不进入这个市场 或者进入很小的市场 我没有在这里买这个 或者我将进入很小的市场 我将等着看它是否能收紧一点 然后给我 As it starts to turn up there in this market, I'm going, I be going to not go in there, or go in real small, I did not buy this here, or I'm going to go and really small, and I'm going to wait to see if it can tighten up a bit and give me.
现在它正在向相反的方向发展 但我希望看到它收紧可能会持续几天 从那里出来 然后取出 取出这里的供应与这些反转 类似的东西 可能会增加头寸 或者等到它发展得更好一点 And it's going the opposite direction now, but I would like to see it tighten up maybe for a couple days, come out there, and then take out, take out this supply right here with those reversals, something like that, and maybe a add to the position, or wait till it develops a little bit better.
所以这是一个 你知道 我们把BI警报 So this is one that, you know, we put on BI alert.
但是 这不是最优的吗 But just again, wasn't it was so optimal?
是的 我想说 在这种类型的市场中 嗯 你知道 当然 你知道 我们看到很多股票都不起作用 Yeah, I would say. And in this type of market, um, you know, definitely, you know, we're seeing lots of stocks not working.
我在这个市场上看到的另一件事绝对令人沮丧的是 我们看到了很多强大的地方 And and the thing also that I'm seeing in this market that is definitely discouraging is that we're, we're seeing a lot of power place.
我想知道你对这个目标的看法 因为你很擅长分析权力所在 并与之协调 And I like to know your opinion on this mark, because you're good at analyzing the power place, um, and in tune to them.
呃 我看到了很多权力游戏 这是非常鼓舞人心的 但我也看到了很多权力游戏失败了 没有效果 Uh? I'm seeing a lot of power plays that set up, which was very encouraging, but I've also seen a lot of power plays that are failing and not working.
你也看到了同样的事情吗 Are you seeing the same thing?
是的 Yeah,
同样的事情 我会说 这是一个很好的例子 same thing. I would say, you know, this is a good example.
它看起来很结实 而且这个还能用 You know, it looks really strong, and this one could still work.
但是 是的 它也给人一种 呃 可能在支点和其中一些地方有很多波动的感觉 And, but, yeah, it also feels like just a lot of, uh, maybe volatility in the pivots and some of these
更高级的R-S名字对 现在 呃 higher R-S names right right, um, now, uh, as
就模型艺术而言 我们将会做更多的教程 far as the model arts concerned, we're going to be doing more tutorials.
我要做一些 呃 关于这个的解释 I'm going to do some, uh, subcessions on explaining that.
我知道我们有几个关于monolert的指标的问题 I know we have a couple of questions here on some of the indicators at monolert.
一个是斯科特的东西 再讲一点角度警告的重要性 包括50天和200天 One is stuff from Scott. Talk a little bit about more, a little bit more about the significance of angle warnings, both 50 day and 200 day.
你知道 角度警告真的是一种短期的情况 真的只需要关注或担心 You know, an angle warning is really something that is a is a short term situation, and really is only to be looked at or to be worried about.
呃 你知道 当你从右边上来的时候 Uh, you know, when you're coming up that right side.
我的意思是 如果你买了一只处于急剧下跌趋势的股票 嗯 它出现了上涨 你显然会有一个角度警告 因为 你知道 你处于下跌趋势 I mean, if you're buying it, you know, a stock in a sharp down trend, um and it turns up, you're obviously going to have an angle warning, because, you know, you're in a down trend.
移动平均线正在下降 The moving averages are going down.
另一只股票在它之上 但我用它的地方是在右边 当它出现在右边的时候 Another stock moves above it. But where I use it is in the right side, when it's coming up the right side.
我之所以把它放在那里是因为有些人过早地进入那里 And, well, the reason why I've put it on there is because some people get in there prematurely.
他们开始购买 嗯在你还需要更多时间来开发地下室的时候 They start buying, um premature at when you still need more time for the basement develop.
其中一件会提示这一点的事情是 50天线仍将处于下跌模式 而股票将在其上方移动 And one of the things that will tip that off is that the 50 day will still be in a declining mode while the stock moves above it.
即使有一个枢轴 如果这50天非常尖锐 它也会下降 And even if there's a pivot, if that 50 day is really sharp, it's going down.
可以这样想 如果趋势是急剧下降的趋势 如果你越逆势 它就像磁铁把它拉回来 就像橡皮筋把它拉回来 Just think of it this way If the trend is in a very sharp down trend, if the more you go against that, it's like a magnet pulling it back, like a rubber band pulling it back.
从长期来看 你可以每周使用一次 200天 所以如果这是一个小警告 你可能只是收回几天 And on a longer term basis, you could use that maybe on a weekly, on the 200 day, so if it's a minor warning, you might just pull back for a couple days.
你可能甚至不会退缩 但这是一个小小的考虑 只是说 嘿 看看这个基地 You might not even pull back, but it's a little consideration, just to say, hey, take a look at this base.
确保你在这里没有过早进入 右边没有被压缩 Make sure that you're not going in premature here that's not compressed on the right side.
它只是给了你一个小警告 让你进一步研究它 确保你知道 你看到了那里的一切 It just sort of gives you a little warning that to to to look further into it, make sure that you know you're, you're, you're seeing everything there.
嗯 我们可以在其他时间详细讨论并展示例子 Um, we could talk about that more and show examples at another time.
让我们看看分数 平均增长7 6% Let's see marks, uh saying, um, average gain 7.6 %.
平均下降4 5 呃 我想解决这个问题 Average lost 4.5. Uh, want to work on that.
但我三个月的交易成功率只有百分之十 敞口在百分之十到百分之二十 But my batting average is only percent on trades in three months, giving exposure at ten to 20 %.
所以不会被杀 这很可怕吗 考虑到市场大量的后期分析试图隔离进入空气 So not getting killed. Is this horrible, given the market lots of post analysis trying to isolate entry air.
这就是你们应该掌握的数字 如果你们在这方面不是很有经验的话 So this is precisely the numbers that you probably should be having, you know, certainly if you're not super, super experienced at this.
但如果你持有任何一种波动 在这个市场中平均收益为7 6% 这意味着你正在进行一个更大的 更大的移动 而不是快速的 你知道 进入强势的第一个移动 But if you're holding for any kind of swingle, which with an average gain a 7.6% in this market, means you are going for a larger, a larger move, than a quick, you know, get out into strength 1st move up.
正因为如此 我会说你的击球率将在25%到35%之间 而你只是略低于25% And that would because of that, I would say your batting average going to be anywhere between 25 and 35 %, and you're just a little below the 25.
这是有道理的 听着 幸运的是 你 你加热了我们的警告 而且你待在非常非常轻的环境里 所以是的 你不会死的 So that makes sense. Um, look, fortunately, you're, you're heating our warning, and you're staying with very, very light exposure, so yes, you're not, you're not getting killed.
击球率只需要上升到40% 这些数字 你做得真的很好 That batting average only has to go up to 40 %, and those numbers, you're doing really good.
如果你能在一个好的市场上达到50或60美元 你就成功了 And if you can get up to 50 or 60 in a great market, you're killing it.
所以需要改变的 可能是市场 So what has to change, probably, here is the market.
嗯 你知道 你当然会回头 看看你的选择标准 看看它 你知道 你是否做出了好的选择 Um, you know, you certainly go back, look at your selection criteria, see if it, you know, if you're making good selections.
但是是的 击球率在这个市场上是有意义的 这是我们所期望的击球率 But yeah, that batting average actually makes sense in this market, that that's the type of patting average that we expect.
呃 我试着做的是 我试着保持我的数字 这样我就可以在糟糕的市场中度过25%到30%的打击率 并且仍然有70%的时间是错误的 而且不会有太多麻烦 Uh, and, and what I try to do is I try to keep my number so I can weather a 25 to 30% batting average in in the bad markets, and still be wrong 70% of the time and not get much trouble.
你这样做的原因是让损失成为收益的一小部分 并且在事情开始起作用之前保持曝光的亮度 And the reason the way you do that is by having the the loss be a fraction of the gain, and keeping your exposure light until things start working.
好吧 再问几个问题 然后我就走了 Um, okay, a couple more questions, and then I'm going to run.
有没有可能你会考虑在分析中加入进入止损和未平仓交易的功能 这样我们不仅可以实时跟踪pina 还可以实时跟踪我们的风险 Is there any chance you would consider adding the ability to enter our stop losses and the open trades portions of the analytic so we can not only track pina but also our risk in real time.
好吧 我一定会的 这是我必须要研究和考虑的 嗯 我不确定 Okay, I will definitely that something I will have to look into and consider, um, I'm not not sure about that.
但是我们 我们当然会考虑任何我们可以做的任何增加或改变来增强我们的能力 Uh, but we'll, we'll certainly consider that any any, uh, additions or changes that we can make to enhance things is certainly invited.
所以我肯定会调查的 So I'll, I'll look into that for sure.
好吧 最后一个问题 All right, um, let's see one last question.
蕾妮 我相信这是巧合 每次我们的干模型从红色到橙色 我们在干模型中都有一个快速的逆转 在空市场中是有效的 Renee. I'm sure it's coincidence that both times our stem model moved from red to orange, we had a quick reversal afterwards in the stem model, valid in a bare market.
抱歉 我把这句话浓缩成一句话 Oh, I'm sorry, I-I-I put that together as one sentence.
有一段时间 让我们重新开始 There was a period. Let's start over.
我确信这是巧合 当我们的阶跃模型从红色到橙色时 我们都有一个快速的逆转 I'm sure it's coincid that both times our step model moves from red to orange, we had a quick reversal afterwards.
茎模型有效吗 Is the stem model valid
在一个空旷的市场 情感上就像进两步 退三步 in a bare market? Feels emotionally like two steps forward, three steps back.
我在重读你的 迷失 这本书 I'm re reading your mindset book Loss
失败是生意的一部分 Losing as part of the business,
使劲甩开市场 扯下两张 两对 翻成满堂彩顶着我不冲 hard to shake off the market, pulling off two, two pair, turning into a full house against my not flush.
我明白你的意思 但是 我是说 你要去一个空市场 在那里 I hear what you're saying, um, but yeah, I mean, you know, you were gonna get in a bare market, where
纠正错误并尽早回到正轨的成本可能是多次犯错 the cost of getting it right and getting back on board early is potentially being wrong a number of times.
这就是为什么我们要循序渐进这就是为什么 你知道 我们 我们 And that's why we have to be incremental and um and And that's why, you know, we're, we're uh um.
我们会采取这些初步措施 但在我们得到更多证据之前不会提高曝光量 You know, we will take those initial steps, but not move the exposure up until we get, you know, more evidence.
所以这个演示将是最敏感的纯储存碱 So this demo is going to be the most sensitive and going to be purely stocked base.
所以如果我们开始看到股票在运作 它会向上移动 它会变成橙色 当我们看到很多股票在运作时它会变成绿色 So if we start seeing stocks are working, you know, it's gonna move up and and it's gonna, it's gonna turn orange, it's gonna turn green when we see a lot of stocks working.
但这并不意味着他们都能把你挡在门外 But that doesn't mean that they could all turn around and and stop you out.
这给了你 你知道的 有价值的信息 And that gives you, you know, valuable information.
你知道 当茎模型像这样在它的挥发性中来回移动时 这就告诉你你处于挥发性时间 You know, when the stem model is moving back and forth in its voltile like that, that tells you right there that you're in a voltile time.
市场并不是一个很好的市场 但是 嗯 但是你知道 如果涉及到情绪 你知道 你必须事先做好准备 And the market's not, it's not a great market, but, um, but you know, if as far as emotions are concerned, you know, you've got to be prepared for that up front.
这就是交易的一部分 That that is part of trading.
你知道 这很简单 你知道 我们只是有一个模型 它变绿了 每个人都在泳池里 我们又赚了很多钱 You know, it was as easy as, you know, we just had a model, It went green, and everybody in the pool, and we make tons of money again.
我早就是个亿万富翁了 如果我不用停车 不用被人鞭打的话 I'd be a trillionaire, you know, if I didn't have to use stops and get whipped around.
不幸的是 我必须在40年的时间里努力工作才能赚到数百万美元 um, unfortunately, I had to earn my millions over a period of 40 years and work hard and that.
这是无可避免的 嗯 There's no way around that. Um.
所以 我只是想给你们一个机会 呃 在周末之前问一些问题 So with that, I just wanted to give you guys an opportunity to, uh, to ask some questions here before we get the weekend.
你知道吗 我们这周要去参加联调局的 F-O-M-C会议 You know, we're going into fed, uh um, F-O-M-C meeting this week.
我认为你肯定会看到市场波动 I think you're going to definitely see volatility around that.
你有可能会被强行推销 It's a possibility that you get a hard sell off.
你知道 如果他们做了75个基点 市场不喜欢 他们不够激进 You know, if, maybe, if they do 75 basis points, the market doesn't like that, that they weren't aggressive enough.
我不知道 你知道 我们会看到 但我们肯定处于危险之中 可能会剔除这里的低点 嗯 在超轻的地方 你可以看到 没有太多的空位 I don't know. You know, we'll see, but we're certainly in jeopardy of maybe taking out the lows here, um, where super light, you can see, there's not many open positions.
我们一直 呃 我们 我们一直 你知道 建议永远保持谨慎 干抱团 你知道 红色风险模型是负的 一直到11月22日 从来没有骑过自行车 We've, uh, we, we've been, you know, advising caution forever, stem huddles, you know, red risk model is negative, all the way, going back in november 22, is never once gone on a bicycle.
好了 这就是你真正需要知道的 Okay, so that's all you really need to know.
你知道 没有库存设置 细胞信号上的风险模型和红色的茎模型 You know, no stock set ups, risk model on cell signal and stem model on red.
如果没有更多线索 我们就等着 If there's nothing more to know here, we wait.
我们等待情况好转 多长时间 多长时间就多长时间 越长越好 另一边的牛市越好 We wait until conditions improve. How long, as long as it takes, and the longer it takes, the better, the better the bull market is on the other side.
这是我可以向你保证的 That that's something I can assure you of.
好吧 祝你周末愉快 All right, so, um, have a good weekend.
我要 我要试着出去 I'm going to, I'm going to try to get out.
我在旅行 我要去南佛罗里达了 I am traveling. I'm going to be heading to South Florida.
就像我说的 这周我要和斯坦·韦恩斯坦共进晚餐 还有其他一些人 我 我 刚和罗斯·哈伯谈过 And, like I said, I'm having dinner with Stan Weinstein this week, among some other, uh, people, which I'll, I'm, I'm, uh, just talked with Ross Harbor.
我不知道 是港湾还是什么 I don't you know, is it, is it Harbor or anything?
我知道他的名字很奇怪 罗斯 他曾经是威廉·蒙奈尔的投资组合经理 I know it surprises his name, but Ross, that used to be a portfolio manager with um A William Monel.
他这周联系过我 想和我见面 He actually contacted me this week and wanted to meet with me.
我打算和他共进晚餐 因为他也在南佛罗里达 And I'm actually going to try to have dinner with him, because he's in, uh, south Florida also.
所以我有很多 呃 在这个行业里有很多伟大的人 传奇人物 我要和他们见面 还有一些在南佛罗里达的人 So I have a number of, uh, of great, great people, legends in the industry that I'm going to be a meeting with, among some other people in South Florida.
所以这将是一次非常棒的旅行 So it's going to be a really great trip.
正因为如此 我要把备忘录的一般市场打开 When, because of that, I'm going to try to get the general market of memo out.
可能今晚在我旅行之前 然后如果我做一个库存视频 它可能会在周日晚上发布 May be possibly tonight before I travel, and then if I do a stock video, it'll probably be out on its Sunday evening.
希望大家能找到它 Um, so look for that hopefully.
我不能保证 但我可能会提前做完今晚就做完 I-I can't promise, but I might get that out early and do tonight already.
除此之外 我将在周一的1130和大家见面进行问答 Other than that, I'll see guys on Monday for q and A at 1130.
周末愉快 还有 在这段时间里 我们先把火药擦干 Have a great weekend. And, uh, let's, uh, keep the powder dry here for the meantime.
谢谢你马克 很感激 待会儿见 Thanks Mark. Appreciate it. See you guys later.
这是一个 It's a.
你 You.