早上好，欢迎大家 okay good morning and welcome
密涅瓦尼私人通道训练室 to the minervani private access training room
鲍勃·斯曼 Bob weissman
如果你能快速举起你的手 if you could do a quick raising of your hands
让我知道你听得一清二楚 letting me know that you hear me loud and clear
希望大家都和我一样度过了一个愉快的周末 hope everyone had a great weekend as I did
看着我的小马驹进入世界职业棒球大赛 watching my fillies make it to the world series
这是令人印象深刻的 that was impressive
周末横扫三场比赛 3 game sweep over the weekend
让我们欢迎马克·里奇的到来 and let's also welcome Mark Richie into the room
早上好,马克 good morning Mark
早上好鲍勃早上好马克 morning Bob morning Mark
我想请你们举手 and just want to ask you to raise your hands
让我们知道你在听 letting us know that you're hearing
马克里奇找到 Mark Ritchie find
响亮和清晰 loud and clear
我们不谈熊的事，但我们会 we won't talk about the bears but otherwise we'll
谈论马克·明特韦尼 talk about Mark minterveni taking
这里的晨曦 the morning lead here
恭喜巨人队取得了令人印象深刻的 and congratulations to the giants for an impressive
到目前为止，6项和1项记录 6 and one record so far
是的 yep
对此我很高兴 I'm happy about that
让我们快速看一下这个市场 so let's take a look here real quick just at the market
你知道我们今天穿gap了 you know we did gap up today and
跟进跟进的一天，也就是 following up on the follow through day which is
这是意料之中的 to be expected here
我们还是要寻找一个分布 again we're going to look for a distribution
今天文件出来后不久 soon after the file today
我们有一点 we're getting a little
如果你看到这50天的下降 if you see here the 50 days in a downtread
现在我们已经超越它了 now we're getting above it
这就是我们要讨论的 so that's where we get into
我们称之为散度 that divergence where we call it
我们称之为角度警告 we call it an angle warning and that could
你知道 you know
如果这里的市场上涨得快一点 maybe if the market runs up here a bit quickly
直到200天 up towards that 200 day
它给了它50天的出现机会 and as it give it the 50 day a chance to turn up
你可能得收敛一点，但现在 you might have to pull back a bit but right now
通过一天的文件和一些库存设置 with a file through day and some stock setting up
我们想试着 we want to try to take
至少有几个职位，如果他们 at least a few positions if they
你知道的，通过积分 you know get through by points
我还没见过 and I haven't seen
我看的一些股票 some of the stocks that I was looking at
今天上午是潜在买家 this morning as potential buys
Nbix有可能被拉回 nbix potential pull back by
虽然我很想看看这个 although I would like to see this
再收紧一点 tighten up a bit more
然后出来 and then come out
这有点太早了 that is a bit a bit premature
它看起来像一个cinc it looks like a cinc
这里漏了一点，但还是漏了 which leaked off a little bit here but still
如果你能守住这些低点就能坚持住 holding up if you can hold these lows
几个名字差距像humana a few names gap like humana
停在这里，然后离开了 gapped up here and took off
告诉我这些名字是什么 signal which these are some of the names that I
我们在周末讨论过 talked about over the weekend
这是最近爆发的 that had broken out recently
现在是imxi and now the imxi
我参与这个案子是因为我们 I went into this one because we
只是稍微后退了一点 just pulled back just a little bit into the range
基本上就是把它放在合适的地方 and basically just getting it right where
你知道我们会在越狱时买下它 you know we would have purchased it on the breakout
在星期五，我也 on Friday and I also
我喜欢这样的布置 I like this set up and
关于这只股票的一些情况 some things about this particular stock here
这是很好的做法 so this is acting great you know right away
走到这里，坚持下去 came out here and hold up and followed through
今天可是个大日子 and we got a big day here
你的音量已经超过平均水平了 you're already above average volume
在周五 on Friday
远远高于平均水平，所以有了这些 well above average volume so having those
几天吧 you know several days
正在整理文件 getting some file through now
让我们看看如何结束这里 so let's see how we close here
就添加 so just add
你知道在这一点上，只要增加几个位置 you know at this point just add a few positions
然后开始你的金字塔，但我不会 and start pyramiding your way in but I wouldn't get
就像我说的，太咄咄逼人了 too aggressive as I said
周末你得小心点 over the weekend you got to be careful
这是这是 this is the part this is the the
的部分 the section of the
市场，如果你愿意的话 the market if you will
当你走出熊市的时候 when you come off of a bear market lower
你很容易陷入社交恐惧症 you can very easily get caught in a fomo
运动的类型，因为随着指数的增加，一些会上升 type of motion because as the index is some will run up
从低点 off the lows
你知道，如果没有存货 you know if there's no stock setting up
你开始做一些草率的购买 you start doing some sloppy buys
马克，你在这里做过什么吗 Mark have you done anything here at all
不是今天早上 not this morning
但 but
就像你周末说的那样 you know just exactly like you said over the weekend
我不太想赶时间 kind of don't want to be in a hurry
你知道我有超大号的，那是我最大的仓位 you know I have the XL e that's my biggest position
你知道它的效果很好 you know it's acting well
你知道我买了 you know I bought
我有再生，你知道，只是浸了几个脚趾头 I have regeneron and you know just dip in a few toes
但你知道，我认为到目前为止 but you know I think so far it looks about like
你知道最后的尝试次数 you know the last number of attempts
我们甚至可以在几周后得到它 we may get it even a couple of weeks so
我认为我们可以有一个交易环境 I think we could have a trading environment
但可能还有更多工作要做 but probably more work
至少在短期内是这样的 you know in the short term at least
在一些图表上 on some of these charts
是啊，是啊，可能只是几天 yeah yeah and it could just be a number of days and
我们得到 and we get
我们这里有一些设置，收紧了一点 and we get some setups here that tighten up a bit and
我们会从这里掉下来 and and we're getting some fall through here
VRTX当然是在一个缺口上，但是 vrtx of course it's on a gap here but
我从这里跌落到新高 I got some fall through coming into new highs here
当然，我们有几个名字 some of the a couple of the names that we own of course
这是个好消息 so that that's that's good news
莉莉当然表现得很好 Lily of course came out nicely on
星期五和现在也是 Friday and now is also
但就像我说的这个差距 following up here but like I said on this gap here
我们可以轻易撤回，所以不要不要 we could easily pull back so just don't don't
不要追得太快 don't chase here too quickly
让我们看看，让我们看看 let's see let's get to some
问题，你们在想什么 questions and so what you guys are thinking
他们都准备好了 they're ready
所以 so
第一个问题来自尼尔 first question coming from Neil
谁把我的警报当工具了 who is using mine alert as a tool
训练他的眼睛 to train his eye
查看违规的确认情况 to see the confirmations of violations
要做到这一点 to do that
我还需要了解事情的原因 I also need to understand the causes of the things
里程警报突出显示 that mile alert highlights
例如 for example
我不明白是什么引起了反转警报 I don't understand what causes a reversal alert
周五用ci作为例子 using ci's an example on Friday
所以我也想要 so I was asking also for just the
大概一英里内会有一个词汇表出来 ETA of a glossary coming out for miler
是的，所以星期五 yeah so Friday on the
21 the 21st
是的 yes
看到 see
I或cl，但看起来像I I or cl but it looks like I
好吧 okay
是的，我猜你说的是积极的逆转 yeah I guess you're talking about a positive reversal
也许担心 maybe worry
你本来很低落，但后来又出现了 you were down and then ended up turning up but
我们去回答你的问题吧 let's just go and answer your question
术语表 the glossary
是的，我们正在努力 yeah we're working on that
迈克，如果你在听，这是 and Mike if you're listening this is
你一直在问一个要做的项目 you've been asking about a project to work on
也许这是我们能做的 maybe this is what we can
加快术语表的进度 accelerate here on the glossary so
是的，我们内部组装的 yeah we put it together internally
但是有一堆像 but there's a bunch of like
里面有数据 data in it that's
技术上的，就像 technical you know it's like the
程序员 the programmer
把所有的数据都放进去 put all the data in there
这是一种计算和所有的 that is sort of the calculations and all that
所以我们得解释一下 so we got to just explain it in
正则项 regular terms here
这就是 so that's something that
我得亲自去看看，确保它 I need to go over personally and make sure it's
做得很好，我只是没有时间 done right and I just haven't had the time so
但我们一直在努力 but we've been working on
实际上，新模型的艺术特点 new model art features actually
但是这是 but yeah that's
我认为 I think
我们得尽快把冰川修好 we need to put that glacier up as soon as possible
我们还会有你悬停的地方 we're also gonna have where you hover over
指示器和玻璃出现了，所以 the indicators and the glassery comes up so that's
这也是未来 that's also coming
我们将会 we're gonna be
到今年年初，我们会有很多 by the beginning of the year we're gonna have a lot of
改进 improvements
我是建模师，所以会有一个很大的 I'm modeler so there's gonna be sort of a big
一次推 push at one time
在那里你会看到 where you'll see
一大堆的改进会同时发生 a whole bunch of improvements will happen at one time
所以它会 so it'd
如果你不介意的话，再耐心一点 be just a little more patient if you don't mind
是啊+ yeah plus
我们已经需要 we already need
在我们的治疗项目准备人员中 deep in our master treatment program preparation guys
结论也是如此 so also with that conclusion
我们有更多的时间 comes a little bit more time that we have
对于其中的一些项目 for some of these projects
azpn azpn
Rotten问这个是否符合他们编码的33 rotten is asking if this qualifies as they code 33
pn pn
我们必须把 we have to bring up
去史密斯的市场看看吧 market smith and see it for now
你不会在这里看到所有的信息 and you're not going to see all the information here
所以azp，因为我没有 so azp because I don't have it
让我们看看azpn let's see azpn
代码33，你们可以看到 code 33 so well right here you can see that
你会看到收益从负值开始改善 you're looking at the earnings improving from negative
是的，我的意思是你知道你有负面情绪 yeah I mean you know just that you're having negative
数字移动正数或负数 numbers move the positive numbers or negative numbers
它们的负性变小了 that get less negative
当你进入 you do want to see when you get into the
寻找代码33，也就是 looking for the code 33 which is
我不知道的是边距 for those of you that I don't know is margins
收益和销售都在加速增长 earnings and sales all accelerating
所以没有这个这个应该是a so you don't have this this actually would be a
你得到了2/4，而不是3 you've got 2/4 you don't have 3
如果你往回看，就看不见了 so if you go back you can't see it
在这之前-67等于1+33 but prior to this -67 is 1+33
1+18比-64，实际上下降了 and 1+18 versus -64 so that actually went down
但是你会得到这是一个 but yeah you're getting this is a
2/4的加速度 you know 2/4 of getting everything accelerating
但是你会 but you would
你确实希望看到一些正数 you do want to see some positive numbers
你知道这是否只是进步 you know if it's all just improvement
从负数到更好的负数 you know from negative to better negative
你知道我想要一些正数 you know that that I want to see some positive numbers
所以我们开始看到这些 so we're starting to see those
它们在这里也是相当大的数字 and they're pretty big numbers too right here
所以这绝对是强烈的 so that's definitely strong
好吧 all right
乔治 George
他一直在看c l f d he's been watching c l f d
CLFD，是的，怎么了 clfd yeah what about it
我只是想问问 just asking if it's
在BCP和 qualifying this form in the bcp and
或者你是想把最后几天塞进去 or are the last few days considered wedging up
是的，所以你可以看到我 yeah so you can see that I
显然已经在看这个了 obviously was already looking at this
我们正在谈论它 and we were talking about it
因为我在这里画了一堆东西 because I got a bunch of stuff drawn in here
让我把它拿出去，这样我们就可以 let me just take it out of here so we can
把图表整理一下 clean up the chart a bit
是的，我的意思是，它肯定是楔了一点 yeah I mean it definitely is wedging up a little bit
我认为这是一个很好的 I think that's a really good
非常好的眼光 very good eye on a
在 on
这里有一个微妙的细节，就在这里 a subtle detail here where it's wedging right here
还有50天的下跌趋势 you also have the 50 day in a little bit of a downtrend
所以你知道现在看起来有点早 so you know it looks a little premature
你知道，还有这个 you know and with this
随着左边的大量抛售 with this decent sell off here on the left side
我就会知道 coming right into that I would you know
让这一切看起来更完美 to make this really look perfect
给它一点时间 and give it a little time
我很想看看，你知道的 I would love to see it you know
这里稍微收紧一点 tighten up just a little bit here
然后花一点时间，然后出来 then spend a little time and then come out
把这里清理干净 clear out this area right here
这将是 that would be
这是最优的 that would be optimal
它可能不会它可能只是从这里开始 it may not it may just go from here
不过看起来不错 but yeah it looks pretty good
技术好吧 technically all right
问的是什么反馈 and is asking what feedback
用什么来发信号 should I be using to signal
我再试一轮 when I can try another round
从现金进入市场 of entering the market from cash
特别是在数轮1%之后 particularly after multiple rounds of 1%
总股本损失 losses in total equity
马克，我让你拍一下 so Mark I'll let you take a snap with that one
你要寻找的第一个反馈 well the first feedback you want to look for it
你得先买些股票 what one is you got to have some stocks first
所以在你给出反馈之前，你得先做好准备 so before you even feedback you got to have setups
你知道吗，今天早上我们有1518个名字在拜勒身上 you know we had what 1518 names on biler this morning
不好意思，集中注意力 or excuse me focus
我还在适应方言的变化 still still getting used to that vernacular change
你想要 and you want to
然后 then
设置一些警报，摆一些小姿势 set some alarms and take some tiny positions
的反馈 the feedback
把你的尺码减下来 just cut your sizes down
你总是想对事情有所了解 you always want to keep a pulse on things
所以 so
我们看到了一个像上周一样的跟进日 we see a follow through day like last week
你什么都不拥有 and you don't own anything
你应该想的是，我该怎么蘸脚趾 you should be thinking how do I dip a toe
然后你就 and then you just
也许是一个位置，然后你从那里开始 maybe it's one position and you go from there
是的,基本上 yeah basically
我在周末的视频里说过 and I said this in the weekend video
我不确定你有没有看，但是 I'm not sure if you watched it but
第一步是了解股票和基础 step one is you know stocks and bases
接下来的日子很好 now follow through day is great to see
在熊市之后走出低谷 coming off the lows after a bear market
这当然是一个迹象 and that's certainly an indication
你可能已经触底了 that you could be bottoming
但就像我之前说的，你已经 but like I said before you've got
有熊市 you have bear markets
我们有9点53分的跟踪失败日 we have 09:53 follow through days fail
所以这不是 so that's not
你知道 you know that
这肯定不是无价的东西 that's not something that is invaluable for sure
你知道你以前可能听说过 and and as you know you've probably heard before
你知道每一个 you know every
牛市始于一天的行情 bull market starts with a file through day
但并不是每天都有文件 but not every file through day
开启了一个新的牛市 starts a new bull market
所以 so
你知道我们确实想看一份全天的档案 you know we do want to see a file through day
然而正如马克所说 however as Mark said
股票归根结底是股票 the stocks it comes down to the stocks
所以1号 so number one
他们本周末指出的是股票和基础 they pointed out this weekend was stocks and bases
你看到股票设置了吗 are you seeing stock setups and then
股市正在爆发吗? are stocks breaking out
然后从那里开始 and then from there
他们爆发后表现如何，你看到了吗 how are they acting post breakout and are you seeing
这两种东西的增殖 proliferation of that of those 2 things
这就是你想看到的 and that's where you want to see
你想看那些证据 you want to see that evidence
改善和扩大 improving and broadening
到目前为止，你知道我们已经 so up until now you know we've had
是的，这里面有圈套 yeah there's been some setup
一些股票出现了突破 so you have some stocks breakout
然后一切都崩溃了 and then everything falls apart
剩下的也不多了 and there's not much left and
然后你会得到 and and you get
你知道你会被吸进去又被吐出来 you know you get sucked in and spit out
所以这是必须改变的 so that's what has to change
这就是我要找的 so that's what I would look for
这就是我要找的 that's what I'm looking for
有一个问题我们已经跳过了 there was a question to here I think that we skipped
鲍勃，我不知道你有没有看到，但是 on iomas Bob I don't know if you saw it but
在爆发 broke out on
迈克尔在10月14日问破了 Michael was asking broken on October 14th
第二天爆发的时候我还在 I was when it broke out next day
收盘时微涨但成交量巨大 it closed with a tiny gain but a huge volume
我们来看看是17号还是14号 let's see are we talking about here on the 17th or 14
让我们看看 let's see
14号稍等 14th hold on just
是的14日 yeah 14th so
哪一天是星期五，那一天应该是星期一 which was a Friday and that would have been a Monday
所以我不确定 so yeah I mean I'm not sure
你知道那和什么有关，但你知道那是 you know what that was related to but you know that's
这当然是一些搅动 that's certainly some churning
但我不会这么想 but I would not read into that
总有一天我不会 that one day would not make me
要么卖出股票，要么远离股票 you know sell the stock or stay away from the stock
所以,这 so that that
那也不是什么大问题 that wouldn't be a huge red flag
不过几天后你就知道了 although it did you know a couple days later
来过这里，但现在不是了 came in here but now that wouldn't be
所以接下来的几天价格下降了，我被拦住了 so the price drop following days and I got stopped out
是那个音量很大的日子吗 was the day with the huge volume
红旗是转弯的标志 a red flag so yeah it's a sign of turning
通常这是一个危险信号 usually that's more of a red flag
如果股票上涨并得到延长 if the stock runs up and gets extended
然后从那里开始 and then from there
你开始看到很大的体积，它不能运行 you start seeing heavy volume and it can't make it
价格进展 price progress
这就是我们所说的搅动 that's what we would call churning
在这里，你知道，很难读懂 over here it's really hard to you know to get a read
我不会因为这个卖掉它 I would not sell it because of that
我们就这么说吧 let's just put it that way
所以我不认为你做错了什么 so I don't think you did anything wrong
好的，彼得在问 okay Peter is asking
在你的心态书中 in your mindset book
你谈到了最佳情绪功能区 you talk about the optimal emotional functioning zone
以及不同努力的最佳唤醒水平 and optimal level of arousal for different endeavors
他们需要basham they need basham
在他的书中也给出了获胜的例子 also gives examples in his book with winning in mind
包括国际步枪的最佳水平 including the optimal level for international rifle
他说这是一个commestate which he says is a commestate
你认为最理想的情绪是什么 what do you believe is the optimal emotional
功能 functioning
波动交易者的兴奋区域和水平 zone and level of arousal for a swing trader
为什么 and why
好吧，我我是从兰尼·巴沙姆那里学来的 right well I I learned that from from lanny basham so
所以我我也在 so um and I and I also in
在我的书里，我称赞他 in my book I I credit him
我不确定你是否知道，但是 so I'm not sure if you know that or not but um
但是兰尼兰尼巴沙姆非常了不起 but lanny lanny basham is is amazing
他的书很棒 um and his book is amazing
嗯,所以 um and so
还有很多你知道的我用我的 and a lot of what you know what I'vedone with my
拍摄 shooting
体育运动 sport
都是跟兰蒂·巴沙姆学习得来的 came from studying and learning from landy basham
所以最优 so the optimal
唤醒 arousal
功能区或情感功能区 functioning zone or emotional functioning zone for
交易员应该是其中之一 a trader should be one of
你懂的，冷静，你懂的，就像一个高尔夫球手 you know calm you know it more like a golfer you know
如果你是综合格斗选手的话 you know again for if you're an MMA fighter
对于那些 for those who
没有读过 have not read
我的心态书你可能看不懂 my mindset book you might not understand
你知道我们在说什么 you know what we're talking about here
但你绝对应该读一读 but you should definitely read it
因为这非常重要 because it's super important
在第二部分 in the second section
掌握完美的练习 of mastering perfect practice
我给大家举个例子 so you know and I'll just give you an example here
就像我在书里写的那样 like I do in the book
作为综合格斗选手 you know for an MMA fighter
你知道你会想要充满活力的 you know you'd want to be pumped up
你会想要一种特定类型的情感 you'd want to have a certain type of emotion
,会有 and there'd be
你的最佳唤起可能是漂亮 your optimal arousal would be to be probably pretty
心跳加速 jacked up in your heart rate pumping
肾上腺素激增 and a lot of adrenaline pumping
对于一个高尔夫球手 for a golfer
你想要的恰恰相反 you'd want just the opposite
你知道你会希望它平静得多 you know you'd want it to be much calmer
把心率降下来 and have that heart rate down
所以每一次努力或运动或或 so with each endeavor or sport or or
你想要达到的目标有一个最优值 thing that you're trying to achieve there is an optimal
你不仅应该在那里 zone that you should be in not only
在兴奋状态下 in state of arousal
而是你自己的情绪和想法 but your own emotions and your thinking
还有你的身体姿势等等 and your body posture and all that stuff
我已经深入讨论过了吗 which I talk about in depth
我认为 and I think for
交易者需要保持冷静和专注 trader it needs to be one of calm and focus you know
和真正的 and real
浓度和有 concentration and having
一个计划和真正的过程 a plan and really staying with process
就像我常说的 so like I always say
你知道你会不会因为这件事变得情绪化 you know if you're going to get emotional over it
你会不高兴的 you're going to get upset
等到你在追你，等你 wait until you're after you till you're
退出行业 out of the trade
等你退出这行再说 wait until after you're out of the trade
你知道 you know
如果你想发脾气，那就去吧 and then if you want to throw a tantrum go right ahead
但你知道的，我真的很想待在这里 but you know I try to stay really really
我记得有一次采访 and I think there was an interview that
我们做过的那个 that one we did for
马克和我 real vision Mark and I
有一个问题 that there was a question about
你知道运动，基本上我说，你知道我 you know motions and basically I said you know I
当我做交易时，我真的没有任何情绪。 I I really don't have any emotion when I make a trade
我真的很像斯波克 that's really I'm very like you know Spock in uh
没有情感的明星轨道 star track where there's no emotion
这是非常机械的 it's just real very mechanical
嗯,所以我 um so I
我觉得这才是你该去的地方 I think that's where you need to be or
或者需要射击才能到达 or need to shoot to get to
好吧 okay
女孩问 girls is asking
当你以1%的止损开始建仓时 when you initiate a position with an 1% stop
然后在第二天提高止损，只接受2%的损失 then raised that stop to only accept a 2% loss on day 2
然后在第三天卖出1%的收益 and sell the position for an 1% gain on day 3
你认为那是吗 do you consider that to be
一笔交易是因为你最初的止损是8%。 a one r trade because your original stop was 8%
或者你现在认为这是一个4 r的交易 or do you now consider that to be a 4 r trade
因为你调整了停车点 because you adjusted your stop
一天2 a day 2
这是个好问题 that's a great question
马克，我再给你一次机会，因为你没有 again Mark I'll give you a chance because you haven't
有机会回答太多问题了吗 had a chance to answer too many questions
我会给我的 and I'll give my
2美分 2 cents on it
我会说，如果你进入这个行业 well I would say if you entered the trade
知道你要拿一个完整的 knowing that you were going to take a full
整个仓位8%止损 8% stop on the entire position
就像 like
当你进入的时候，一切都是有风险的 we talk about when you get in everything is risk
如果你打算在 if you were planning to sell the entire position out at
8然后 8 and then
你卖了8美元 you sold at 8
我会说这是一笔交易 I would say it was a one r trade
但如果你知道8是我的上限，我就会 but if you knew that 8 was my max and then I was gonna
你知道 you know
可能会踉跄或停下，诸如此类 maybe stagger or stop and that type of the thing
我甚至不考虑我们之间的关系 I don't even think in terms of ours
当你知道 when you know
我总是认为是多重的，但是 I think of always as multiples but
它会为我出来的 it's going to come out for me
在平均水平的情况下 in the wash in terms of where the averages are
所以我认为这有一点语义 so I think it's a little bit semantics
因为我们有点 because we're sort of
你早就知道了 you know before the fact
在你改变了你的 after the fact that you're changing your
止损是因为交易对你有利 stop up because the trade is going your way
结果是4个小时 it's going to come out as a 4 hour
就结果而言 in terms of the result
所以我不知道，我有点 so yeah I don't know I'm sort of
对我来说有一点 to me it's a little bit
其他的6/2打 6/2 dozen of the other
因为如果你做得很好 because if you're doing a good job
数字会出来的 the numbers are gonna come out
反正是在00:58洗的 in the wash anyway at 00:58
如果你正确地管理你的盈亏 if you're managing your profits and losses properly
是的，我认为有两件事 yeah I mean I think there's 2 things
有一个人在这一行 there's one being in the trade
然后再做决定 and then making decisions
按照你所做的去生活 live as to what you do
根据你休息的时间等等 based on what you rest and so forth
然后写日记 and then journaling it later
所以如果你说的是我会 so if you're talking about how I would
把它记下来或记录下来 journal it or book it
根据我的统计，我会说 in my statistics I would say that you know
像标志，原来的一站是你的 like marks that the original stop is your
这就是你在冒险吗 is what you were risking
所以是1r so it would be a one r
所以，再说一遍 so but again you're
你总是 you're always
试图改善你最坏的情况 trying to improve your worst case scenario
你知道，至少你应该知道 you know or at least you should be
所以你知道移动它 so you know moving that
这个stop up是 that stop up is
在某些情况下是件好事 under certain circumstances is a good
你知道这是个好主意 you know it's a good idea
但这并不意味着你已经冒险了 but that doesn't mean that now you've risked
你可能会更少 you've risked less
更少是因为你已经拿那8%冒险了 less because you've already risked the 8%
所以我会说，你知道，我不得不说，你知道 so I would say you know I'd have to say for you know
日志的目的 journaling purposes
应该是一个小时 it would be a one hour
好吧，迈克尔在问 all right michael's asking
回头看看9月500日 look at back on the sep 500
在2018年的调整期间 during the 2018 correction
该指数基于近2年的时间 the index based for almost 2 years
然后又爆发了几个月的觊觎 and then broke out for a few months before covet
之前的贪念衰退 before the covet decline
我们的股票在指数上升时爆发 we're stocks breaking out while the index was basing up
直到 right up
对不起 excuse me
在指数上涨的时候，股票会爆发吗 were stocks breaking out while the index was basing up
右边 the right side
然后是一个简单的修补 and then an easy darn
市场随之而来 market ensued
2018年就在这里 so 2018 is right here
好吧, all right and
它造了一个短暂的新蜂巢 it made that brief new hive
是的，我的意思是非常简短，而且是在 yeah I mean it was very brief and it was after
你知道那是在一个伟大的 you know it was after a great
这是一个非常容易获得美元的环境 a great easy dollar environment that came out of here
这真的是一个非常完善的结构 this was really it was a very well formed
进入2017年，很多股票都出来了 base going into 2017 where a lot of stocks came out
在这片区域的不同地点 at different points along this area
那时的波动率非常低 and then it was just a very low volatility
你知道，这是一个美好的时期 you know wonderful period for
这就是我去的地方 for trading and then this is where actually I went
在这个过程中，我做空了，然后我们捕获了 into this I went short and then we captured
1500点左右下行 about 1500 points to the downside
然后它会重置 and then it reset
我的意思是，我现在就可以告诉你这是 so I mean I could tell you right now this was
这段时间很短 short enough it was a short enough period
它没有多少腿 and it didn't have much legs
你并没有得到很多 that you didn't really get a lot of
在不同的时间设置，因为 setups at different times because
你没有多少时间 you didn't have much time
所以要确认设置在哪里 so to get confirming setups where
在市场上涨之后 after the market moved up
它翻了过去 it rolled right over
所以这更像是 so this was more of
这段时间我们看到了很多股票 this period here was more of seeing a lot of stocks
一流的 topping
或者显示出晚期活动的迹象 and or showing signs of late stage action
所以我不确定你到底是什么 so I'm not sure exactly what you're
他问的是这2年期间 so he's asking during this 2 year period actually
再往上面走一点 going even further to that lead up
就在贪婪之前 right before the covets
马克问你还记得吗 so off Mark he was asking if you recall
股市爆发了吗 were stocks breaking out and
在马可号降落时产生阿尔法信号 generating alpha while the Marco was basing
你知道，总是有股票在这样做 well there's always stocks doing that you know
总有一些股票是这样的 and there's always gonna be stocks that are
它们都爆发了 that are breaking out
在产生阿尔法的同时市场间隔 in generating alpha while the market spacing
几乎总是 almost always
所以 and so
是的，我的意思是不，但我能记得到底是什么吗 yeah I mean no but can I remember exactly what
到底发生了多少次，在哪里?不知道 how many or where exactly it happened no
所以我不确定你想要达到什么目的 so I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish though
这是一个问题 it's a question
我相信你是有原因的，但我没有 I'm sure you have a reason behind it but I don't
真正理解 really understand
我没有和你的想法联系起来 I'm not linking up with your thinking
是的 yeah
杰瑞在问你如何比较 jerry's asking how would you compare the strength of
液化天然气 lng
小的VCP没有大的修正 uh no big correction form a small vcp
与DVN相比，这是一个很大的修正 and compared to dvn a big correction
形成一个大的VCP forming a big vcp
是啊，我不知道 yeah I don't know
我是说我必须这么做 I mean I'd have to do
更多的比较，而不仅仅是快速打开图表 more comparison than just quickly bring up the chart
跟你说实话 to be honest with you
嗯，是的，你有一个更大的基数 um so yes you have one that has a larger base of course
当然还有液化天然气 and then you have the lng of course which is it
正如你所指出的是一个较短的基座 as you pointed out is a shorter base
我的意思是你知道的 I mean you know this
液化天然气的作用更强，因为它是正确的 the lng is acting stronger because it's correct it
你知道，用更少的时间来纠正它 you know for a less amount of time it's correct it
这里我想得少一些 I think less here
相当强大的 been pretty strong
所以我想说液化天然气可能看起来更强一些，但是 so I would say lng probably looks a bit stronger but
你知道是6又6打还是其他的 you know it's 6 and half dozen or the other
你知道这就是我穿XL的原因 you know that's why I'm in the XL
因为有太多了 because there's so many
这类股票 stocks in this group
在能源领域，天然气和石油等等 in the energy space and gas and oil and so forth
那 that
现在有很多名字都在设立 there's a lot of names that are setting up right now
所以你知道我会的 so you know I would
你知道我喜欢那个 you know I go with the one that
从最严密的支点出来 came out from the tightest pivot
露易丝冒险第一个逃跑了 Lois risk and broke out first
我就是这么做的 that's how I would do it
我必须在他们之间做出选择 I was to choose between them
关于你今天的imxi交易的问题 question on your imxi trade from today
你的销售计划是什么 what is your selling plan
你需要看到更多的确认从 do you need to see more confirmation to move from the
融资风险模式将在4大动作中摇摆 financing risk mode to swing in 4 bigger moves
这其实是个人的决定 see that that's really a personal decision
我是说我 so I mean me
是的 yeah
我还是会承担一些风险至少是部分风险 I'd still be financing some risk at least a partial
so and and I so and and I
我买下了imxi，我 and I bought imxi and I
我在集会的时候稍微脱了一点 and I actually took a little off into the rally
所以现在你知道这是一个非常 so now again that's you know it's a very
这是比较保守的做法 that's more conservative way of playing it
这是表演很棒 it's acting great
这完全取决于你的状态 it really depends on how you're
你知道的，我的意思是 trying to skin the cat you know I mean
有些人不想做所有的交易 some people don't want to do all that trading
他们等着，他们 you know and they wait and they
如果你想下更大的棋 and if you wereplaying for the bigger move or
我现在要做的就是拿 what I would be doing right now is taking
较小的位置 smaller positions
等待确认，更有耐心 and waiting to get confirmation and being more patient
如果我更积极，更像一个叛徒 if I was to be more active and to be more of a traitor
并尽我所能去回报 and trying to make that return anyway I can
那我就会 well then I would be
取走部分或者直接卖给任何力量 taking partials off or selling right into any strength
你知道的，现在文件已经积压了一天 you know right now with the file through day
你要小心销售 you want to be careful about selling
把这些 and taking those very
你的整个仓位都能迅速获利 very quick profits on your whole position
股票的表现 of a stock that's acting
然后从这里逃出基地 well and breaking out of the base here
所以我认为这可能是你想要的 so I would say this is probably where you'd want to be
你知道的，做部分的 you know do a partial
而且 and
在这一点上是两全其美 and and and get the best of both worlds at this point
但是，融资风险总是有意义的 but yeah financing risk always make sense
如果你不贪心，你就会知道 you know if you're not greedy
你知道你两全其美 you know you get the best of both worlds
这是一种抵消 it kind of offsets
你可能会想，我放弃了好的一面 you could think well I'm giving up the upside
但你也在拍负面的东西，所以 but you're also patting the downside so
它抵消了它，所以你可以得到相同的回报 it offsets it so you could get the same return
这取决于你想怎么去那里 it depends on how you want to get there
我最不喜欢消极的一面 I like the least amount of downside
波动性最小 and the least amount of volatility
我想要我的权益曲线 I want the I want my equity curve
要被引导，逐步前进 to be steer stepping up and to
很少会跌太多 very seldom ever go down much
因此，最好的办法就是卖出，价格上涨 and so the best way to do that is to sell into strength
和金融风险 and to financial risk
你知道经常，但又一次 you know often and but again
如果你是周一早上的四分卫 if you're a Monday morning quarterbacker and
你知道你卖的是它 you know you sell it
现在它在这里起飞了 and now the thing takes off here
下一秒上涨了20% and it goes up 20% the next
一周左右的时间，你在踢自己 week or so and you're kicking yourself and
感觉你知道 feeling like you know
天啊，我应该做点别的 oh my god I should have done something else
那你就知道那你就会有麻烦了 then you know then you're gonna have a problem with any
任何你选择 anyone you choose
所以你必须尽早做出决定 so you early have to make a decision
你知道你会提出什么计划 you know what plan you're gonna put forward
得到反馈 get that feedback
然后是你知道的可行的计划 and then whichever plans working you know
加倍下注 double down on it
好吧，没有更好的词了 all right for lack of a better term
作为这个问题的后续 as a follow up to that question
杰森在问现在买是不是太晚了 jason's asking if it's too late to buy imxi
嗯是的 well yeah
我的意思是 I mean
我不知道会不会比这里高 I don't know if it's gonna go much higher than here
但我不会在这里买 but I would not buy it here
不，附带点已经发生了 no the by point has already occurred
你有足够的时间 and you had plenty of time
你知道你可以的 it pulled back you know you could
就这样向后拉 so on that pull back
它没有移动得那么快 it didn't move that fast
你有足够的时间去买 you had plenty of time to buy it
这样我就不会在这里追逐它了 so I would not chase it here myself
没有 no
克雷格问 Craig is asking
对pestox apple有这么好的记忆 with such a good memory of pestox apple
2004年股市回调的前奏 leading off of a correction in 2004
他想问WWE是否是一个很好的比较 he wants to ask if WWE would be a good comparison
你那棵苹果树的例子 to your example of that apple tree
好吧 well
我不，我不知道 I don't I don't know
比较 comparison on
基于什么 based on what
根据它起飞前的样子 based on what the chart look like before it took off
我的意思是，我确实记得很清楚 I mean I do have a good memory of that and
苹果也有类似的功能 and apple had a very similar
像这样的小载重表 little load sheet like this right here
所以如果你指的是这个 so if that's what you're referring to
它看起来相似 it looks similar
就像它在这里的样子，在一个 it does the way it came off here andwithin a
在一个艰难的市场，你知道，这就是原因 in a tough market you know and that's why
你知道这是个先例还是 you know this was a precedent or
或者我不应该说苹果是个先例 or I shouldn't say apple was a precedent
但这是一个设定 but this was a setup that
你知道的，很有建设性 you know was constructive right here
我只是想让它再紧一点 I just wanted it to tighten up just a little bit more
50日也是一个不错的上升趋势 the see the 50 day was in a pretty good up trend too
你看，这是另一件事当你低于50 see that's another thing when you get below the 50
然后是50的强势上升趋势 and then the fifties in a strong up trend
你得开始找那些低级骗子了 you want to start looking for those low cheats
这是寻找低欺骗的好时机 that's a good time to look for the low cheat
所以 so
这是一只我非常想买进的股票 this is a stock that I really wanted to get on board
我错过了 and I missed
你知道，要等一会儿 you know waiting a little bit
等待好一点 waiting for a little bit better
轴心点，这是 pivot point and that's the
这就是风险 that's the risk of
你知道有时候当你 you know sometimes when you
你要让它完美 you try to get it just perfect
约瑟夫突然想到了一个问题 so Joseph falling up with a question that was
上周有人问我，我回答你是否 someone asked last week and answered if your
严格来说，止损点设置在6%左右 setting your stops technically of around 6%
哪个是当前波动率的函数 which is a function of current volatility
然而，他认为6%的涨幅都不可能实现 however he doesn't think you could even get pops of 6%
当它可能是一个更好的策略回到 when it might be a better tactic to back into
更紧的止损点，比如3% tighter stops like 3%
或者只使用强力进攻的百分比阻截 or just use percentage stops on power plays
关键的潜在领导者要多给自己一些尝试 key potential leaders to give yourself more tries
也许会认为这些策略是错误的 and might think about these tactics in the wrong
首先是语境 context well first of all
我想我从来没有 I don't think I ever
我要把止损点设为6% said I'm gonna be setting stops at 6%
我绝不会这么说 I would never say that
,它将 that it would
那我就完全站着不动了 then I'm gonna blanketly be standing stop
在某一水平停止 stops at a certain level
我想我没说过这是第一 so I I don't think I said that that's number one
所以我说如果我记得的话 so I said what I said was if I remember
上次我讲到停车和 the last time I talked about stops and
问我说的停在哪里 questions asking where I said stops is
我说我在技术基础上，我回到 I said I'm on a technical basis and I back into
一般来说 a stop that's generally
8%或更少，我试着尽可能紧 8% or less and I try to get in as tight as possible
虽然我说过，但对于较小的头寸 so with smaller positions though I did say that
你知道你可以 you know you could
你知道默认情况下你承担的风险更小 you know by default you're taking less risk
如果你在1/2的位置，你设置了6%的止损 if you're taking 1/2 position you're setting a 6% stop
你知道很明显那是 you know obviously that's
设备一生病就有3%的位置就满了 the equipment of a sick of a 3% position on a full
位置 position
你的问题是 so your question is
你确定我们两站都停得更紧吗 is sure we'd be having tighter stops both
我的意思是, I mean that's
那只能是后知后觉了 that's gonna only be known in hindsight
当然可以，如果你能赶上更紧的车站的话 certainly if you can get in on the tighter stops
是啊，你要尽量把它挤得紧紧的 yeah you want to get in this tight as you can
但你也不想阻止交易 but you also don't want to choke off the trade
我是说马克 so I mean how Mark
你会怎么做呢 how would you approach that
我只能说，我觉得他正在考虑 I would just say I think he's thinking of it
至少在这方面是对的 at least right in regards to
看看它是否挥发 look if it's volatile
不管是波动的股票还是波动的市场 whether it's a volatile stock or a volatile market
你想得对 you're thinking about it right
我想要更多的尝试 in terms of I want to get more tries
所以 so
这和很多人的做法完全相反 and that's precisely opposite what a lot of people do
当我把止损扩大到20%或30%的时候 they go while just widen my stop to 20% or 30%
是什么破坏了你的整个风险回报关系 which ruins your whole risk reward relationship
但这是一种贸易 but yeah it's trade by trade
你知道有时候急刹车只是 you know there are times where the tight stop just
你几乎是在保证自己 you're almost guaranteeing yourself
你只是被切了一小块 you're just kind of get sliced up a little bit
所以除非你对时机很有把握 so unless you're really sure of your timing
你不想绑得太紧，那样你就会 you don't want to go so tight that you wind up just
在外面被拦了好几次 getting stopped out multiple times
我的意思是 I mean
我很喜欢你关于减少波动的想法 I do like your thinking of cutting off volatility
当市场波动很大的时候 when there's high volatility
你不想要 you don't want
你不想扩大止损 you don't want to widen your stop
玩波动游戏 and play the volatility game
你想要的话就把它剪掉 you want it you want to cut it off
所以我喜欢这样 so I like that
我不喜欢的是你在一个盒子里思考 what I don't like is you're thinking in a box
或者你的意思 or you're saying
我不认为有 well I don't think there's
你知道我们会涨到6%的 you know we're gonna get popped to 6%
好吧，首先 well well first of all
Xla是out index xla is out index
4天内我们就上涨了6% and we're up 6% on it now and like 4 days
所以这并不一定是真的 so that's not necessarily true
我可不想这么想 I wouldn't want to think that way
我们会说，好吧，我不会得到这些 we're saying well I'm not gonna get these
你知道我要让 you know I'm gonna let the
证据告诉我是这样的 the evidence tell me that so
也许这就是你知道的驱动因素 and maybe that's you know what's driving that
评论就是证据 comment is the evidence
所以，不管证据是什么，你都要坚持 so yeah you know stick with whatever the evidence is
现在如果你不能很明显如果你 now again if you can't obviously if you're
你知道 you know
如果你的平均收益只有6% if you're only getting 6% on average on the upside
你不可能平均下跌6% you can't average 6% on the downside
现在,如果你 now if you're
如果你是对的 if you're right
50%除非你的打击率高于50% 50% unless you're batting average is higher than 50%
所以数学肯定是有用的 so certainly the math has to work
但这并不意味着 but that doesn't mean
你回到了那个你 that you that you back into
你知道这并不意味着每一站都要 you know it doesn't mean that every stop has to be
在一个特定的水平上 at a particular level
重要的是平均值 it's the average was what matters
你的平均工资是多少 what are you averaging
你的平均收益和你的平均顶部是什么 what your average gain versus your average top
一切都会好起来的 that's everything's gonna come
并且分布在一个钟形曲线上 and on a bell curve and distribute on a bell curve
prta是 that prta is
在户外度过一天 putting an outside day
现在它在这里脱落了一点 now it came off a bit here and now
有一点进步 it's improving a bit
至少它回到了这里，这很好 so that's good at least that it's coming back here
你也没有超过前几天的高点 and you're not moving above the previous days high
我的意思是在一个非常非常强劲的市场中 I mean again in a really really strong market
我可能会在这里买这个 I'll probably just be buying this right here
也许还会停下来 and setting a stop maybe on
今天我的低一半的位置和这个 today's low half my position and this
另一半是低的 low right here on the other half
在这个市场 in this market
你知道，我想看到它收紧一点 you know I'd like to see this tighten up a bit
现在,可能会 now that might
那可能会让我错过它 that might cost me missing it
现在我可能会想念它，但我 now I might miss it but I
想不想看到它在这里度过一个安静的夏天 would love to see this have a close summer around here
进去呆一两天，然后出来 go inside for a day or 2 and then come out
并从那里 and from there
你知道那有点 you know that'd be a little bit
布置得好一点 a little bit better set up
好的，呃 all right the uh
让我们在这里看到的 let's see here
赫尔曼提出的两个分数的问题 question from Herman for both marks do you
你们在星期四、星期五还是今天都买了东西吗 did you both buy anything on Thursday Friday or today
如果是的话 and if so what
你的持有期是 was your holding period
只有在今天你还是持有这些头寸 only in today or do you still own the positions
如果是今天就好了 and if it was only in today
你能给我更多的建议吗 could you please give more advice
在那 on that
因为它没有反映在平台上的先导bis中 as it's not reflected in the pilot bis on the platform
好吧，有很多东西，但是马克 okay a bunch of stuff there but Mark
就像我之前说的，我有 like I said earlier I've got the
我买了XL lee，我买了 I bought XL lee and I bought
我现在有两个职位 r e g in or the 2 positions I have right now
我一直拿着这两样东西 and I'm I've been holding both obviously at warning
是的，我刚买的 yeah I've just bought
我刚买了平台上的东西 I've just bought what's on the platform
就像我说的那样 like I said I did
去掉一些lmxi，因为我有一点 take off some lmxi because I had a little bit
比我想的要重 heavier position than I wanted to
坚持并试图为一些风险融资 stick with and tried to finance some of the risk
但我没买过不值钱的东西 but I haven't bought anything that's not
你知道在这个平台上买的东西 you know the buys that are here on the platform
好吧 okay
除了 other than
好吧 okay
让我们在这里看到的 let's see here
你如何找到平衡 how do you find a balance
在变得有攻击性和有污点之间 between getting aggressive and stained
建立在牛市的过程中 grounded in the process during a bull market
当草率的战术得到救助时 when sloppy tactics get bailed out
你如何找到平衡 how do you find a balance
之间变得咄咄逼人 between getting aggressive
并且在这个过程中保持脚踏实地 and staying grounded in the process
在牛市时 during a bull market when
糟糕的坦克，它已经失败了 sloppy tank it's get failed out
好吧好 okay well
我不使用草率的战术，所以我不需要 I don't use sloppy tactics so I don't I don't need
我都不知道这个问题 I can't even relate to that question
所以我不知道 so I don't know
我是说只要我用完 I mean as soon as I use
我的意思是我可能 I mean I might
我是说我草率的战术 my sloppy tactics I mean
邋遢是不是和我自己有关 are sloppy relative maybe to myself
但我不 but I'm not
用牛市来救我，然后说这种话 using a bull market to bail me out and say that
哦，我们现在处于牛市 oh we're in a bull market
我可以你们知道 I can you know
现在纪律不好 have bad discipline now
我就不会这样，所以 so that just doesn't happen with me so
安德里亚斯问的是顶点 all right Andreas is asking about vertex
哪一家公司将在周四公布财报 which has its earnings on Thursday
有什么建议吗 any recommendations how to handle that
我只是说，供大家参考 and just says an FYI guys
在打开的位置选项卡上，你可以看到 on the open positions tab is where you do see
对收入状态的估计 the estimate for the earning states
所有的位置 so all the positions we have
会被反射到那里吗 are going to be reflected there
马克，天哪 and marc god what's
如果你能很快算出来 if you can real quickly just calculate
RTX的隐含波动率是多少 what's the implied volatility on the rtx
是的 yeah
所以你知道我需要一个垫子 so you know I would look to have a cushion
你知道要看收益 you know to go into earnings
所以如果我们能得到的话 so in depending on it if we can get
你知道非隐含波动率 you know unimplied volatility on it
有些股票我们不看好 some stocks we have a hard time
你交易的期权不多 you don't trade many options
或者他们根本不交易期权 or they don't trade options at all
有时我们会得到这个数字，我不知道 sometimes we can get that number I don't know
我们马上就会告诉我们 well we'll tell us in a second
如果我们能好好解读一下这个 if we have a good read on this one
我看了股票的历史，所以 and and I look at the history of the stock so
回头看看它是如何影响收益的 look back and see how it's acted around earnings
有时生物科技股 sometimes biotech stocks
他们完全不受收益的影响 they don't move at all on earnings
就像收入并不意味着什么 like earnings doesn't mean anything
因为他们没有收入 cause they don't have earnings
这不是交易，你知道他们不是 it's just not trading on you know they're not
他们的交易不是基于收益 they're not trading on earnings
所以 so
在19% in 19%
所以这是隐含的 so you got so it's implied
波动说 volatility is saying
你会得到一个4又1/2 that you're going to have about a 4 and 1/2
称之为5%移动 call it 5% move
04:56%的人朝任何方向移动 04:56 percent move in either direction
你知道现在有3%或4%的利润 so you know right now with a 3 or 4% profit
我会坚持到底，坚持到底 I would hold through it and I would hold through it
所以我们会看到我们在收益方面的进展 so we'll see where we are though going into earnings
大家要注意的是 and something to be aware guys that
你知道收益是星期四的 you know earnings being Thursday a lot
从现在到星期四洗完衣服 a time between now and Thursday after the clothes
所以这个东西可以向上走 so certainly this thing could run right up and
马克获得了一些利润 Mark takes some profits
很明显它会掉下去，把我们挡在外面 it could obviously go down and stop us out
所以 so
对，你说的是三天的行程三天的行程 right you're talking about 3 days away 3 full days away
威利是问还是问 Willie is asking or ask
B e l f B让我们看看它是否会停在这里 b e l f b let's sure if that's gonna pull up here
是啊，是啊，这是我们有声音胆 yeah yeah this is we have the sound biler
是啊，我差点就自己买了，真希望我买了 yeah I almost bought it myself I wish I did
我喜欢这个我喜欢这个名字 I like this I like this name
有几个原因，但请继续 for a couple of reasons but go ahead
他实际上是在10月6日买回来的 he bought it back on October 6 actually
在10月6日前撤回 pull back by October 6
我们看看在哪里 let's see where that is
就在这里 so that's right here
原因是由于设置的缘故 and the reason for was the pullback by setup from
看起来就像 it was looking like
基地的左侧开始 the beginning of the left side of the base
因为它生 because it rawed
从基地底部撤退到27号区 back up from the bottom of the base to the 27 area
但被拒绝了 got rejected
如何在10月5日穿好衣服 how to pull back with good clothes on October 5th
我能得到你的评论吗 can I please get a comment on this
是不是有点太早了 was it a bit premature
你想看吗 do you want to see
你想不想看看 and do you want to see
回调当天成交量有高有低 high or low volume on that pullback day
我觉得有点为时过早 I think it was a bit premature
我的意思是，你当然知道 I mean you know certainly
大量的流出，流入，你知道不是这样的 high volume coming out coming in you know is not
相对于低容量来说是好的 good relative to if it was low volume
从基地出来 coming out of the base
如果你如果你击中了主轴 if you if you hit your pivot in the
音量洛根，它回到了更高的音量 volumes Logan it comes back in on higher volume
但这并不一定 but that doesn't necessarily
我不会因为那个就卖 I wouldn't sell because of that just that one
你知道一天的交易量会更大 you know one day of higher volume
但是你看，这里面有一些教训 but you see this there's a couple lessons in this
首先 first of all
你知道它是从后面拉过来的 you know it comes through that pull back by
它不会下降，但会下降很多 and it doesn't come but down much and it's
你要坚持你的停顿，保持正确的姿势 you stick with your stop and you hold in it right
所以现在它改善了 so now it improves
这就是 so here this is where
我想买的房子在1014号 I was looking at buying it was on 1014
然后当它 and then as it
另一个教训是 again another lesson where
那是相当不祥的一天 that was a pretty ominous day
你进去，靠近它，然后 you go in there nearby it and now it
收盘时接近低点 comes off closes near the lows
如你所知，这是我们所见过的最重要的一天 as you know one of the biggest days that we've seen
你知道，在基地 you know in the base
所以你很容易就会被击倒 so very easily you could have been knocked out of that
但是要坚持站着 but stick to the stop
如果你一直站着 once again if you stuck to your stop
几天后你还会在这里 you'd still be in this a couple days later
你会得到一个反转恢复 you get a reversal recovery
现在你知道往高处走了，所以 and now you know moving higher here so
我想你了解你自己 I think you know you
你 you
你做得很好 you are did a good job
是有点太早了 it was a little bit premature yeah
但你我喜欢你坚持的方式 but you I like the way you stuck with it
只有你你被困在了你的车站 and and just you you stuck with your stop
关于拍摄的问题我觉得你还在做 question about filming you're still in it I think you
你是的 you are yeah
说得好 that's a good point
问题解决 question on fix
打破了一个伟大的VCP，但它没有什么 breaking out of a great vcp but it did squat
你会买吗? would you buy it
当它转弯时，你会等到 when it turn or would you wait until
它带走了今天的兴奋 it takes out the high of today
不，如果你如果你想买这个 no if you if you're looking to buy this
你应该已经在里面了 you should already be in it
它取出这个的时候你应该在里面 you should be in it right when it takes out this
这里的高温是1798度 these highs right here out one o 7 98
1 o 7 98 1 o 7 94 one o 7 98 one o 7 94
我的意思是 right there I mean
你应该已经进去了 you should already be in
我们本来要把这个放在比尔特身上的 we were gonna put this on bilert actually
马克，马克和我之前谈过这个，但是 Mark Mark and I talked about this earlier but it is
我相信它会在一两天内进入收益 I believe it's going right into earnings in a day or 2
这是唯一的唯一的 so that's the only that's the only
这是正确的 that's correct
是的，这是唯一的问题，所以我 yeah that's the only problem with it so I
我拒绝了 I passed on it
好的标志 all right Mark
奥斯卡是问 Oscar is asking
本周和未来两周将有许多财报出炉 many earnings are coming in this week and next 2 weeks
尤其是本周所有姓方家的人 particularly all the Fang names this week
你要去 are you going
我们要减仓或卖出一些头寸吗 are we going to reduce or sell some of our positions
如果我们不能得到 if we cannot get that
09:53%的坐垫 09:53 percent cushions before they're
不一定取决于波动率 not necessarily depending again on the volatility
我们来看隐含挥发 we'll look at implied volatilium
我们来看看历史 we'll look at the history
股票的收益 of the stock around earnings
我们会看一下股票本身的波动 and we'll look at the volatilia of the stock itself
然后 you know and then
也要看情况 and see also depending
我要看我有什么样的靠垫 I would depend on what kind of cushion I have
真正的问题是你的计划是什么 you know the real question is what your plan is
这就是你的风险承受能力 you know that's your risk tolerance
你必须决定是否 you have to decide whether
你知道你愿意的 you know you're willing
去研究收益，去承担拥有的风险 to go into earnings and take that risk of having
你知道有个缺口 you know a gap down
然后你应该定位大小 and then you should position size
到你觉得舒服的程度 to a level that you're comfortable with
然后提出 and come up with
你知道一个合理的最坏情况 you know a reasonable worst case scenario
这是一般 which is generally
最坏情况的最小值是07:55% you know minimum of 07:55 percent of worst case
为了15到20 in order to 15 to 20
可能更糟 could be worse
但这有点 but that sort of
你知道那就是我会尝试烘焙的东西 you know that would be what I would try to bake
如果我说的话 into the cake if I were saying
嘿,你知道 hey you know
持有隔夜 holding overnight
我愿意去经历一个你知道的 am I willing to go through a you know
收益下降20% 20% decline on earnings
这是你必须要做的 that's what you have to
你知道问这个问题，再问那个 you know ask that question and that again
这些风险问题 these risk questions are you know
我可以给你指导，告诉你去哪 I can give you guidelines and tell you where
我停下来等等 I put my stops and so forth
但位置大小 but position sizing
而且 and
进入收益市场并承担隔夜风险才是 going into earnings and taking that overnight risk is
这完全是个人的决定吗 is a totally a individual and a personal decision
我们每个人对风险的容忍度都不一样 we everybody has a different tolerance for risk
你知道有些人就是这样 you know some people are
非常危险 very risk you know
非常愿意接受 very willing to take
风险和其他风险是非常不利的 risk and others are extremely risk adverse
他们想成为超级保守主义者 and there want to be super conservative
这取决于你自己的财务状况 and depends on your own financial situation
你知道这是你的尺寸 you know this is your size you know it's
仅仅是钱的大小 just dollar size alone it's just
你知道，有些人认为这只是百分比 you know some people think well it's just percentages
但你知道当你有一个 but you know it's a big difference when you have a
是啊，你有五百万美元的头寸 yeah you have a $5,000,000 position on
当你知道的时候，它可能是 when you know and again it might be
有人可能有一万美元的头寸 someone might have a $10,000 position on
对他们来说，这是世界上所有的钱 it's all the money in the world to them
但我可以向你保证 but I can ensure you
如果你有过一千万美元的头寸 if you ever had a $10,000,000 position on
你知道的，一夜之间就走真的很可怕 pretty scary going overnight you know
不管你有多有钱 and no matter how rich you are
美元仍存在巨大风险 there's still a huge dollar risk
这是很难恢复的 that is a lot harder to recover from
比你损失1万美元还好 than if you lost $10,000
大多数人可以工作，储蓄，然后得到1万美元 most people could work and save and get $10,000
但你知道 but you know
你差了50分 you get a gap down a 50
用10分钟的姿势 percent with a 10 minute position
那得得得得得得花点时间 that's gonna take that's gonna take a bit
想把钱要回来，所以 bit to get that money back so
再次抱歉，我没有给你确切的答案，但是 again sorry that I'm not giving you exact answer but
我们会我们会一天一天地看这里和 we will we will take a day by day and see here and
但是你真的 but again you really
你不应该被定位你不应该做的事 you should not be positioned up you should not be doing
一个警报目标，不好意思，是nbix an alert target sorry about that that's nbix
所以我们开始有了一些 so we're starting to get a few
出现在这里的名字 names that are turning up here
你知道 you know where
Nbix出现在这里 nbix is turning up here
你刚说了几个名字 a couple names you just had that
prta下降了，而我开始上升 the prta which were down and I was starting to turn up
这正是我们和我想看到的 this is exactly what we want to see and I want to see
市场在这里保持稳定 the market hold up here and
还有别的名字吗 have some more names chime in here
然后当你 and then when you
这些会在区间内回落吗 have these pull back within the ranges
他们要么应该保持紧密关系 either they should stay tight
然后在接下来的几天里爆发 and then break out subsequent days or
马上回来，所以我们 come right back and so we're
这是这是体面的行为 this is this is decent action
但那只是我的警报响了 but just that was my alert going off
只是给你提个醒 just to give you heads up
的问题 question from
这里有个简短的评论 quick comment actually here from
有人问周末怎么过 somebody asking about the weekend
库存记录未装载 stock recording not loading
伙计们，这里有一个 and guys there is a
资源选项卡 resources tab
在 on
有故障排除部分的平台 the platform that does have a troubleshooting section
和缩放 and the zoom
注册页面 registration page which is where
99%的问题都来自 99% of all of those issues are from
难道仅仅是你的一场清场 is just simply a clearing of your
放大历史记录和浏览器 zoom history and your browser
这是一个放大的问题 it is a zoom issue
故障排除部分提供了一个列表 and that troubleshooting section provides a list
有很多事情可以解决 of things to do to fix that
我要放你走了 I'm gonna let you go
就一会儿，就在这里 for one second here right
如果你不介意的话，让马克回答下一个问题 let Mark answer the next question if you don't mind
好吧，你再检查一下 okay yeah you more check out
好吧，丹问了一个问题 all right well there was a question dan was asking
看看是否 to see if the
你对SMP 500的看法 your opinion of the smp 500
denazdek或Russell 2000 denazdek or the Russell 2000
从这里来看，哪一种具有最好的潜在回报 which has the best potential return from here
那是给我的 that one's for me
我的意思是看 I mean looked in
我们不是在交易指数 we're not trading indexes here
我们没有交易etfc指数 we're not trading the index etfc there
所以这一点都不重要 so it's not really even relevant
我猜你知道我不知道 I guess you know I have no idea
这不是我最关心的 and that's not my primary concern
你知道,如果 you know if
股市会上涨的，我们会 the stock market's gonna go higher we're gonna
你知道我们会做得比 you know we're gonna do much much better than
你知道的哪个索引执行其他的 whichever index you know out performs the other ones
你知道回报的潜力 you know the potential for return
个股的价格要高得多 individual stocks it's just so much higher
所以我认为这是 so I think that's
转移注意力，分散注意力 a red herring and a distraction
好了，我们看这里 all right let's see here
所以nbix okay so nbix
市场就贴在这里 market just post in here
1/4尺寸的位置 with 1/4 sized position
好吧，我很抱歉 okay I'm sorry about that
你们能听到我吗 can you hear me guys hear me yep
好吧是的 okay yeah
所以我在这里买了一小块mbix so so I just I just bought a little mbix here and
把它熄灭，让我们看看会发生什么 and just put it out so let's see what happens here
是的，再来一次 yeah just this again
只有1/4的位置，因为我们还在这里 just 1/4 position because we're still going into this
这里的逆转 these reversals here
我真的很想看到它收紧一点 and I really would like to see this tighten up a bit
但它可能就这么走了 but it might just go
你知道 you know
因为它已经很紧了，而且它只是 it's because it's fairly tight already and it just
它可能会在这里起飞 it may just take off here
我希望的是它能成功 what I'm hoping for is either it take
其实我 I actually
我希望它在这里向上移动一点 I would rather have it just move up a bit here
在这些反转时保持平稳 stall out at these reversals
然后收紧一两天 and then tighten up for a day or 2
可以进去 can go inside
然后，然后，然后 and then and then from there
就当它持续了几天吧 let's just say it goes a couple days
然后再增加我建立的职位 and then I would add to the position I'd build
这就是我喜欢的，我喜欢这些缓慢有条理的 that's what I like I like these slow methodical
很抱歉 sorry about that
我口袋里的零钱 change in my pocket
你又知道 you know again
没关系 it doesn't matter
如果股票不能马上卖出去的话 to me if the stock doesn't go right away here
只要不到站，我可以接受 I'm okay with that as long as it doesn't hit my stop
只要不到站就行 as long as it doesn't hit my stop
这是最主要的 that that's the main thing
我们看这里，在这里画一个小位置 so so let's see here just put on a little position here
实际上 actually
让我们看看下一个来自政府提问的问题 let's see here the next question from govern asking
他仍然是 he's still having
或者犯同样的心理错误 or doing the same psychological mistakes
他刚开始做交易的时候就是这样 that he used to do when he started trading
我似乎从我的错误中吸取了教训 I seemed to learn from my mistakes and become
盈利 profitable for
有一段时间是繁荣周期 some time the boom cycle
出于某种原因，我的大脑说 and for some reason my mind said
慢慢地改变 changes slowly
我就会变回原来的自己 and I get back to my old self
在萧条周期把利润分给别人 and give away the profits during the bust cycle
重复这句话让我很沮丧 I'm frustrated that repeat this
在过去的两年里，我犯了7 8次同样的错误 same mistakes I did 7 8 times in the last 2 years
任何关于如何克服这个问题的建议 any advice of how to overcome this
好坚持 okay hold on
因为我刚刚在更新我的精神发型 because I was just updating my spiritual hair
我没有完全听清楚 I didn't hear it completely
我还想打开聊天框，稍等 I want to bring up also the chat box hold on
看看我能不能回到这里沉下去 see if I can get back and sink where we are here
那个问题是什么来着那个问题是什么 what was that question what was the question again
在哪里 where was it
来自政府的询问 the from govern asking
他在犯同样的心理错误 he's doing the same psychological mistakes
对心理学的 yep psychologic
和我刚开始做交易时一样 that I used to do when I started my trading
似乎 seems
似乎从我的错误中吸取了教训 seem to learn from my mistakes
并在一段时间内盈利 and become profitable for some time
房间循环，出于某种原因，我的想法改变了 room cycle and for some reason my minds have changed
慢慢地，我又回到了以前的自己 slowly I get back to my old self
是的 yeah
总线周期 bus cycle
你知道 well you know
最主要的是 the main thing is
你是要做事后分析吗 is that you got to do some post analysis
你知道，如果你是 you know and for something like that if you are
习惯这样做 habitually doing this
写日记是个好主意 a journal is a good idea to
当你做交易的时候 when you do your trades
记录你在想什么 to journal what you're thinking
把它写对这是你能写的最多的了 and write that right that's as much as you can down
对你的情感 about your emotions
你在想什么，发生了什么 about what you're thinking about what's going on
然后翻看那本日记，再翻看 and then review that journal and review
发布分析，看看并试着找到 post analysis and take a look and try to find
就像我们大多数人通常做的那样 common denominators like usually most of us do
我们有一个 we have sort of a
对我们所犯的某些错误的偏见 a bias towards certain errors that we make
有些人会一直买到很晚 some people they continuously buy late you know they
他们有信息恐惧症，他们追逐股票 they have fomo and they chase stocks
其他人的日子就不好过了 others have a hard time
赔钱来赚钱 taking a loss so they get
更大的损失，然后你知道，水下 larger losses and then the you know getting underwater
有些人让先知们 some people let the prophets they're
他们变得贪婪，他们不会接受利润 they get greedy and they won't take the profits
他们让他们滑了回去 and they let them slip back
你会发现的 and you'll find that
如果你观察10个交易者，你通常会有 if you look at 10 traders usually you'll have
10 .略有不同的简介 10 slightly different profile
有时截然不同 sometimes drastically different
但你会发现 but you'll find
每个交易者都有一些特点 that there's a couple things in each of those traders
你会找到公分母 that you'll find this common denominator
他们一遍又一遍地做的事 something that they do over and over and over again
这才是你真正想要根除的 that's really what you're trying to root out
你知道你在努力寻找 you know you're trying to find
什么是你一遍又一遍地做得很好的 what do you do well over and over and really
真正推动它 and really push that
而且 and
你在哪些方面做得不好，然后改进和减轻它 what do you do poorly and improve that and mitigate it
所以你知道 so you know
我只能说这么多 that's all I can say
你要注意你的 is that you have to be mindful of your
你知道自己在想什么 you know of the way you're thinking
我不知道你们有没有我的心态书 also I don't know if you have my mindset book but
第二部分 again the second section
除了第二部分，我们应该把整本书都读了 we should read the whole book but the second section
一个掌握完美的练习有很多技巧 a mastering perfect practice has a lot of techniques
和接近的方法 and ways to approach
压力情况和 pressure situations and
和 and and
培养对正在发生的事情的意识 and develop awareness of what's going on and to have
这对你来说很重要 a routine it's very important for you to have
你知道，就像高尔夫球手有一个击球前的例行程序 you know like a golfer has a pre shot routine
你会发现 you'll see that
有些人就像网球运动员 some of like Nadal the tennis player
他经历了所有这些 he goes through all that that
你知道那种强迫症的样子 you know that obsessive compulsive thing it looks like
或者他在缝补衣服摸耳朵 or he's fixing his clothes and touching his ear
每次都做同样的事情吗 does the same thing every time
让你进入一种特定的心态 to get you into a certain mindset you know
你确实需要 you do need to
你知道要试着制定一个例行公事 you know to try to come up with a routine
试着保持一些一致性 and try to get some consistency
EJ问你去年是什么时候赢得usic的 right EJ is asking when you won the usic last year
你发布了你的结果 you posted your results
你一个月都没输 you did not have one losing month
这让我大开眼界 this was a real eye opener for me
这是故意的吗? was this by design
如果有，你能谈谈你是如何做到的吗 and if so can you talk about how you accomplish that
我的意思是即使回到过去 well I mean even going back
当然，这是设计好的，我是说我试着 well yeah of course it's by design I mean I try to
如果可以的话，我尽量让每一天都有利可图 I try to have every day profitable if I could
我知道这是不可能实现的 I know that's certainly not attainable
一年中的每个月都是 and having every month of the year is
虽然我很少这样做 very seldom that I do that although
你知道，回到过去 you know going back
从历史上看,嗯 historically um
甚至追溯到很久很久以前 even back way way back
如果你把 if you take
追溯到杰克·施威格的时代 go back to the period of when Jack schwagger
我在90年代的交易中订购了它 um went and ordered it in my my trading into nineties I
我有88%的月已经满了 I had 88% of my months were up
而我只有1 / 4 and I only had one down quarter
我加入了 um and I'm in
我知道马克，你很少有 I know Mark you have very few uh
下个月, down months and
当然你知道你只喝了三杯 and certainly you know you've only had 3
非常小的下降年和13年 very small down years and 13 years
所以这是设计好的 so it it is by design yeah
的 the thing about
美国投资冠军年 the us investing championship year
真的是一场完美风暴吗 was really a perfect storm
对我来说,因为 for me because
一切都爆发了 everything broke out
我的意思是有太多了 I mean there was just so many
很多痘 so many breakouts
如果你把股票卖给了爆发 and if you just sold into the breakouts
这是这是一个 it was it was a
对短线交易者来说，这是一个了不起的市场 it was an amazing market for short term traders
我们其实有很多 we actually had a lot of
电子邮件和消息来自 emails and messages come from
你知道我们的成员做得很好 you know from our members that did really well
有很多人真的这么做了 there was a lot of people that did really
那一年 well that year and
我们 and we
总的来说，他们都做了一件事 across the board there was one thing that they all did
他们基本上都很早就采纳了我的建议 and they all basically took my advice early on
卖得很好 and sold right into strength
还有那些这么做的人 and the ones who did that
每个人都发了财 everybody made a fortune
做了一个船 made a boatload
所以我不确定我是否 so I'm not sure if I'm
回答这个问题，但是 answering the question here but
但是你知道，这绝对是设计出来的 but yeah you know it it definitely is by design
我们试图 we're trying to
你知道的，尽量减少损失 you know lose the least amount possible
但我想说的是完美风暴就是 but my point was that perfect storm was that
嗯，出售为力量 um selling into strength
是什么让你一直穿着低腰乔丹鞋 is what keeps you having those low jordans
因为当你卖到强势的时候 because when you sell into strength
你在你的权益最高的时候卖出 you're selling at your equity high
你在股票的最高点卖出 you're selling at the highest point that the stock
在那个点交易 traded at at that point
可能会更高 it may go higher
但重点是 but the point is
你什么都不回馈吗 is that you're not giving anything back
因为你的售价是最高的 because you're selling at the highest price
这就是为什么强势销售是 and that's why selling at the strength is a you know
这把钥匙是主钥匙吗 is the keyto one of the main keys
如果你去读我的 and if you go and you read my
读书思考，像冠军一样交易 book think and trade like a champion
这就是超级性能的关键 there's the keys to super performance
有8个键，但有4个键 there's 8 keys but 4 for the
在…上 on the on the
旁边是4，牢房那边是4 by side and 4 on the cell side
你会发现其中一个是 and you'll see that one of them is
把他们卖给强者 selling them to strength
好吧 all right
这个nbi前任在这里做得很好 and this nbi exes is this is doing pretty good here
但是你知道不要不要不要 but you know again don't don't
如果是这样，不要惊讶 don't be surprised if this
停在之前停过的地方 stalls out right where it stalled out before
看到这里有一个大反转 see right here you had that big reversal
你这里就有一个 you had one right here
我们现在就开始讲这个 so we're coming right into that now
这就是 and that's where
我们可能不得不 we may have to
再进行一次紧缩 go through another iteration of tightening
希望 and hopefully
供应 that supply
通过这些回调一直在清除 through these pullbacks has been weeding through
现在我们的供应减少了 and we've got less supply now
这就是 and that's what
我们会让库存更加紧实 we'll make the stock tighten up even more
希望我们不会到站 and hope that we'll not hit our stop
我们可以把它添加到后续的 and we can add to it on a subsequent
你知道这只是 pivot point you know this is just
从这里开始往后退 starting on a little pullback by right here
但是这里还是很紧的 but again it's it's fairly tight here
这事还不算太糟 this isn't too bad this is about
是的看 yeah looking at
它比我想象的还要重，还要紧 oh wow it's actually heavy and tighter than I thought
我以为是8%左右 I thought it was about 8%
从这里到这里 take from here to here
这是6%，低于7% that's 6 that's under 7%
如果这里爆发了 so again if this broke out right here
你可能在越狱时就买账了 you could be buying this right on the breakout
因为它足够紧 because it's tight enough
这个支点够紧了 this pivot is tight enough
我想看到它更紧绷 I'd like to see it tighten up even more then
然后再加进去 and then I'd add to it
这会让我对它有信心 that would really give me the confidence that it has
潜在爆炸性的 explosive potential
乔莫要股票gpc Joe mo is asking of the stock gpc
Bigbc当然在这里 bigbc of course that's in that
在同一组 in the same group as the
aco,这些 aco and these
哈兹在这里爆炸了 hazy o's blasting off here
这是另一个要上胆汁液的人 this is another one else gonna put on biler
我没有不聚焦列表gpc and I didn't unfocus list gpc
看到了吗，它们是一起向上移动的 see is that moving up in tandem yeah
他问的其实是越狱的事 his question is actually asking about the breakout
回到7月22日 back on July 22nd
或者很多人都来这里 or a lot of the whole groups coming out here
去吧，我把它拿上来 but go ahead I'm gonna bring it up gpc
去吧 go ahead
回到7月22日 back on July 22nd
嗯嗯 mm hmm
7月22日，好的，我们回来 July 22nd all right so that's coming back
回到这里 way back here
好吧，7月22日不是越狱 okay well July 22nd wasn't the breakout
这次越狱应该是 the breakout would have been
会在7月19日出现在这里吗 would have been right here on July 19th
但你可能你知道，你把它当做越狱 but you're probably you know using that as a breakout
它达到了新的高点 that it went to new highs or new high ground
但是轴心点应该是 so but the pivot point would be
很抱歉 sorry about that
就在这里 would be right in here
就在这个水平之下 just below that level
然后就变成了new and then that's where it went into new
并突破新高 highs and broke out to new highs
那么问题是关于什么的 so what is the question about
正如问题所说 so as question says
在我们逃出VCP基地后你会这么说吗 would you say that after we break out of a vcp base
接下来的大多数反应 the majority of the next reactions
不会是另一个大基地吗 will not be another big base
但更多的是一个小山形状的反应 but more of a hill shape reaction
如果是，你怎么 if so how would you
我不确定你会怎么交换它们 how would you trade them I'm not sure
但我不知道那是什么意思 but I have no idea what that means
我真的不知道山丘的形状是什么意思 I really don't I don't know what a hill shape means
我的意思是再一次 I mean again
我就是不知道 I just I don't
你在寻找一种自然反应 you look for you know a natural reaction
一旦它爆发 once it breaks out
你在寻找确认和违反 you're looking for confirmations and violations
回到我的书里 just go back to my book
在这里 it's right there
你知道的，就像一个冠军 you know just go to think a trail like a champion
在确认违规一节中 in the section on confirmations violations
我要特别讲一下 I talk about specifically
我在看什么 what I'm looking at
或寻找 or looking for
主机爆发 host breakout
只是测量是否有 and just gauging whether there's
确认或违反和 confirmations or violations and
你知道的，先看这些 you know going through those first
一些自然的反应 couple natural reactions
看看我能不能打网球 and seeing if I get any tennis bowl action
如果表现不佳，我就会减持或出售 if it's not acting right then I would reduce or sell
如果它现在在行动，我会坚持下去 if it's acting right now would stick with it
然后 and then
你知道的，等我有了可观的利润就把它卖了 you know look to sell it when I had a decent profit
为力量 into strength
差不多就是这样 that's pretty much it
也就不多了，我知道不是 not much more to it I know it's not
听起来很简单，但是你知道 that sounds simple but you know
花了40年的时间，我才有能力执行 40 years to get to a point where I can execute that
一致,但对 consistently but yeah
就是这样，就是这样，简单来说就是这样 that's that's it that's it in a nutshell
帕特里克是mpa的新成员 Patrick new member to mpa
我是 I was
询问是否可以分享或查看DV的清晰条目 asking if you can share or see a clear entry for DV
嗯嗯 well um
我不会参加这个，因为 I wouldn't be entering this because
你知道下跌趋势的当天 you know the jointed day in a downtrend
左边有大量的空中补给 and you've got tons of overhead supply to the left
所以我不推荐一个词条 so I'm not going to recommend an entry
因为这不符合我的标准 you know because this doesn't meet my criteria
你可以看到 you can see that it's
向这边移动，有点收紧 moving sideways here and it's tightening up a bit
但这次我还是要提到我的第一本书 but again I would point to my first book this time
里面有一节我讲的是 there's a section in there where I talk about
趋势和在那里 the trend and in there
我有一个小节讲的是如何 there's a subsection where I talk about how
你知道 you know
庆祝你的胆固醇很低 celebrating that you have your cholesterol as low
但是你知道的 but you have you know
被诊断为癌症 diagnosed with cancer
你不知道这个好消息吗 isn't you know that great news right then
因为我们必须从长远的角度来看待它 because it has to be put into perspective
因为缺乏，我只是转述一下，但是 for lack of I'm kind of paraphrasing but
你可以有一个VCP，也可以有一个底座 so you can have a vcp or you can have a base
但如果是下降趋势，或者 but if it's in a down trend or if it
还没有形成上升趋势 hasn't established an up trend
或者它有大量的供应 or it has lots of supply
但这将大大降低概率 but it's going to lower the probability quite a bit
所以 and so
你知道股票必须有一些标准来满足 you know the stock has to have some criteria to be met
有几个原因 for a couple reasons
一是因为它增加了成功的可能性 one is because it increases the probability of success
2个，因为现在我把范围缩小到了一组 and 2 because now I've narrowed it down to a set of
一组参考点 set of reference points
我知道 that I know
股票在这种情况下该怎么办 what the stock should do under that condition
这是关键 that's the key
制定这些规则的关键不只是 see the key to having all these rules is not just
如果我去问别人 you know if I were to ask people
我们为什么要制定这些规则 why do we have these rules
你知道通过增加概率来赚钱 well you know to increase probabilities to make money
是有利可图的 to be profitable
不，实际上我们有这些规则的原因是 no actually the reason why we have all these rules is
达到一个我们知道会发生什么的程度 to get to a point where we know what to expect
什么是正常，什么是不正常 what is normal and what is abnormal
要有参考点 to have reference points
所以我们知道 so then we know
比如你在等火车的时候 for instance if you're waiting for a train
如果你坐在。你是不会知道的 you would not know that if you're sitting on the
你知道 you know
在10点和10点30分的位置等着 sitting there waiting in its 10 o'clock and 1030
火车没有来 the train doesn't show up
你永远不会知道火车晚点了 you would never know that the trains late
除非你知道它应该在10点到 unless you knew it was supposed to come in at 10
除非你有时间安排，好吗 and unless you had the schedule okay
所以必须先有参考点 so you would have to have that reference point first
否则你不会知道 or you wouldn't know
不管这是否正常 whether it was normal or not
但如果你知道它应该在10点到达 but if you knew it was supposed to come in at 10
它并没有进入11 and it didn't come into 11
你会 you'd be
放心，你会做得很好的 rest assured that you could make a pretty good
有根据的猜测出了问题 educated guess that something's wrong
它离基准点越远 and the further it gets away from that reference point
你就越确定有问题 the more certainty you have that something's wrong
股票交易也是一样的 so now that's the same thing with stock trading
当你到达一个点的时候 when you get to a point where
你有这些参照点，你知道 you have those reference points and you know
在这种情况下会发生什么 what should happen under those
那个或那些特殊的情况 that particular circumstance or those
的情况下 set of circumstances
现在您可以判断是否如此 now you can gauge whether
你开始正常活动了 you're getting normal arrived normal activity
这就是事实 and that's exactly what
告诉你是否应该增加职位 tells you whether you should be adding to a position
或减少它 or reducing it
我知道我跑题了 I know I digress there
说得有点离谱，但你觉得你明白我的意思了 went off a bit but you think you get my point
卡洛斯在问你对心肺复苏的想法 Carlos is asking your thoughts on CPR x
心肺复苏术x CPR x
是的 yeah
他今天在1377点买了一些 he bought some today at 1377
是啊，那不是我的最爱 yeah it's not my favorite
我认为这对交易很有利 I think this is good for a trade
但我想你会遇到 but I think you'll run into
一些销售 some selling here
有点短 it's a bit short
但这肯定是可行的 but it certainly could work
我是说但我喜欢你摆脱困境的方式 I mean but I like the way you came off of the tight
你知道松紧度 you know the tightness
从作弊区出来没问题 coming off the cheat area it's fine
但你知道，我有我自己的解药 but you know my own just my own antidotal
我自己的经验告诉我 you know my own experience just tells me
看看这个 looking at this that
这可能会增加 now this might run up
但如果它直接上升 but if it ran right up
我可能会直接卖给它 I'd probably just sell right into it
或者出售 or certainly sell
其中一部分，为我的风险提供资金 part of it and finance my risk
看起来还需要更多的工作 it looks like it will need more work
好吧，但看起来不错 all right but it looks fine
我想你在这里好好告别了 I think you made a good goodbye here
穿过, coming through that
严格的主 that tight pivot
阿什正在问马克一个问题 ashish is asking a question for Mark
我听你说过在你训练交易员的时候 I've heard you mention that when you trained traders
顺便说一下，这里有两个标记 there are 2 marks here by the way
你只让他们交易一种设置 you had them trade only one type of setup
还有那些一小时内的 and those within an hour
的参数范围 range of parameters
你能详细说明一下这些参数吗 could you elaborate on those parameters sure
所以当我 so when I
当我当我在纽约的时候，我 when I was when I was in New York city and I was
经营一些对冲基金 running some hedge funds
我在培训交易员等等 and I was training traders and so forth
我将开始 I would start
有人去了只能换一个的地方 someone off where they could only trade one
股票模式 stock pattern
这要么是权力之争，要么 and it would either be a power play or
你知道，来自欺骗 you know coming from cheat
低欺骗或 low cheat or
我当时甚至不允许低分数的作弊 I wouldn't even allow low cheats at the time actually
低欺骗还没有建立起来 low cheat wasn't really even that established
我主要是靠作弊和操纵来交易的 I was trading mainly off of cheats and handles
但他们只能交换这些模式 but they could only trade off of those patterns
他有一份职业 and who had a trade
在99 98年RS比赛中 in the ninety nine ninety eight RS games
所以不能低于98 so they couldn't go below 98
一旦他们可以交易 once they could trade that
那我就把它降到95 well then I'd bring it down to like 95
然后我们把它扩展到89 and then we'd expand it down to 89
你知道，我们会敞开心扉 you know and we'd open up
候选人的数量，但他们必须出局 the number of candidates but they had to be out
他们有一笔交易 they had a trade in the
在最强的领先名称中，alpha值最高 in the strongest leading names the highest alpha
事情就这么简单 it was pretty much that simple
有点像训练扑克选手 kind of like training a poker player
只允许他们打a和国王 and only allow them to play aces and kings
就像高级手一样 and like premium hands
他们只会玩 they can't play anything else but
你知道那些高级的手 you know those premium hands
看看他们怎么处理 and see how they handle that
这些情况 those situations
你不能，我是说，想想看 you can't I mean think about it
如果你打不好王牌和国王牌 if you can't play aces and kings right
我是说，你能去吗 I mean yeah could you be a go
我是说，把其他事情做好 play anything else right I mean
你知道如果你不能打国王，你就不能打王牌 you know if you can't play kings you can't play aces
你有你有 you got you got
我们有大麻烦了 we got big troubles you know
这就是我的看法 and that's how I look at it
你知道，用那种你知道的方法 you know with that type of you know approach
这是一个不错的方法 it's not a bad approach to take
即使在艰难的市场环境中 even in a tough market environment
我也会这么认为 I would argue as well
重点是让你集中注意力 well the well the thing is that focuses you
它让你完全正确 it makes you exactly right
和最强的呆在一起 stay with the strongest
情况和正确的 situations and right
你只会把最好的牌打对 you're only gonna play the best hands right
你在这件事上你别无选择，所以 you you have no choice in the matter so it's
它能让你达到最高的境界 it make it get put you in the highest
你成功的概率是基于动力的 your probability for success based on momentum
这也缩小了范围 and it just also narrows it
这样你就不会被这么多的想法搞得不知所措 so you're not overwhelmed with so many ideas and
很多场景 so many scenarios
好的，迈克尔在问 alright Michael is asking
由于茎模型 due to the stem model
市场情况和他自己的交易结果 market conditions and his own trading results
他把最大风险敞口降到了5% he's reduced his maximum exposure to 5%
他的总权益 of his total equity
我的计划是申请 my plan was to apply
逐步暴露 progressive exposure
要逐步提高投资比例 to slowly increase investment ratio
我的2 and my 2
谨慎是对天父的特殊对待 cautious is the special regarding the father of day
你知道那将会是 you know again that's gonna be
个人的东西 something that's personal
我想如果我们在这等着 I'm if if we hold up here and
我们看到 and we see
我们在列表中看到了一些扩展 we see some expansion here in the list here and
名字在这里很好 names hold up pretty good here
可能会 probably gonna
你知道移动 you know move
茎变橙 the stem to orange
我认为我认为这是有道理的 I think I think it would warrant that
如果我们能在这里得到更多的牵引 if we can get a little bit more traction here
我们拿到了今天的档案 and we got the file through day we're on
通过警觉 you know by alert
这是一个小小的进步 so that's a little bit of improvement
这就证明你知道一点 so that would warrant you know a little bit
更有攻击性一点 more aggression maybe a little
再来几个职位或者 a few more positions or
大一点的尺寸 a little bit bigger size
所以我觉得你的计划还不错 so I don't think your plans bad
只是你知道 it's just you know
有些人动作比其他人快 some people move quicker than others
你知道没有一个正确的答案 you know there isn't a right answer you know it's
我是说，事后看来，这是一个正确的答案 I mean in hindsight there's a right answer
你在这里走得慢，而我走得快 you might move slow here and I move fast
然后市场转好，我们都 and market turns around and we all get
我们被夹住了 we get clipped and
你是对的 you were right you know
市场可能会起飞，然后上升 market might take off and it goes up and
你太保守 you're too conservative
我在里面更重，我是对的 and I'm heavier in there and I'm right
但我现在可以告诉你，它很好 but I could tell you right now it's good
有一个来回翻转的 there's that's gonna flip back and forth
我并不总是对的 I'm not always gonna be right
你不可能总是对的 you're not always gonna be right
这与对错无关 it's not about being right or wrong
它是关于渐进的移动 it's about incrementally moving
并利用好时间与更多 and taking advantage of the good times with more
穿上衣服，当你有 size on and then when you have
在经济不景气的时候转向现金 in the bad times and moving to cash and
避免了真的 avoiding the really
真正艰难的时期 really tough periods
你知道会有不同程度的 and there's gonna be degrees of that you know and
没有，只是不可能完美 there's no it just can't be perfect with it
这都是关于公正的 it's all about just
这一切都是为了赚钱赚钱比承担风险更重要 it's all about making money making more than your risk
你呢?马克呢 what what about you Mark as far as
我就是一个完美的例子 I was perfect example of someone who's
如果你想说什么 you know if you want to say something
过于保守的话，我们很容易认为 too conservative we can easily make a case that
你知道如果这个市场发展起来 you know if this market takes off
你太保守了 that you're too conservative
事后看来当然，但我已经准备好搬家了 in hindsight sure but I'm gonna be ready to move
这就是我想说的 that was what I was gonna say
你必须准备好你知道的那种 you've got to be ready to you know to sort of uh
随着事物的变化而改变 change as things change
所以 and so
你知道的，选一个百分比 you know the idea of pick whatever percentage it is
我只是不喜欢别人 I just don't like people getting
盒装的 boxed in with
我只拿这个，然后 well I'm only gonna take this and then the
对，但如果市场或游戏的温度 right but if the market or the temperature of the game
说你有一个 says you've got a
你有一个 you've got a
如果我们看到a标记点 if we see a to mark's point let's say
也许我们可以按部就班，然后我们会有一大堆的安排 maybe we Mark time and we get a whole wave of setups
你知道我不会得到一个任意的数字 you know I'm not gonna have an arbitrary number
我来买 I'm gonna be buying
如果第一个爆炸了 and if the first one blasts off
我要再买一个，再买一个 I'm gonna buy another one and another one and
你知道，我会惊讶于我投入的速度 you know I'll be surprised how quickly I'll be invested
我们还没见过这些人 so we just haven't seen any of that guys
我的意思是，平均来说，焦点列表已经 I mean on average the focus list has been
最好的情况下波涛汹涌 choppy at best for
几周甚至几个月 weeks if not months
这是非常困难的 it's been very difficult
所以还没有理由这么激进 so there's no reason to get aggressive yet
但一旦我们看到你知道，我也会采取同样的行动 but once we see that you know I'm gonna move in kind
我可以告诉你我是怎么做的 I mean I could tell you how I do it
但我不会推荐它 but I would not recommend it for the
新手或者你知道的新手 the novice or for you know a beginner
当然，如果你不是 or certainly if you're not
做得很好，你却遇到了麻烦 doing well and you're having trouble
但你知道我我的手指一直在极点上 but you know I I keep my finger on the poles
我非常非常非常保守 I I'm really really really conservative
我知道我也是在替马克说话 and I know I'm speaking for Mark too
他做了同样的事情 he does the same thing
我们只是有点 um and we just sort of
我们的计划是不亏本 our plan is to not lose any money
至少这是可能的 and at least it's possible
但 but
当股票开始运作的时候 when the stocks start working
我不仅很快就变得有攻击性 I not only get aggressive very quickly
但我能买多少就买多少 but I just buy as much as I can
我的意思是，我只是走进去，然后你知道 I mean I just go in there and just you know
尽快投入尽可能多的资金 start shoving as much money in as fast as possible
以最好的名字 in the best names
我做了很多头寸 and I take huge positions and um
你知道我甚至不知道 you know I don't even really
在这一点上好好想想 think about it much at that point
因为我干这行这么久了 cause I've been doing it so long
嗯你知道 um you know
你可以说我很爱吃猪 I get very piggish if you will
你知道 you know
我一进去，就非常非常有攻击性 I get in there and really really get aggressive very
当我看到他们的眼白时 very quickly when I see the whites of their eyes
如果你愿意，但你必须你知道 if you will but you gotta you know again
如果你是新手，或者你知道 if you're new at this or even if you know
你干这行有一段时间了 you've been doing this for a little while
你已经取得了一些成功 and you've got some success
你没必要走，我要回去 you don't really need to go I'm gonna go back to
你知道我在九十年代的表现 you know my performance back in the nineties
这是一个巨大的表演吗 which was a huge performance
我在5年里涨了35000% I was up over 35,000% in 5 years
你知道我有连续5年三位数的收入 you know I had 5 consecutive years of triple digit
在整个时间段内的大部分时间 returns most of the time during that whole period
我要么是现金，要么 I was either in cash or
你知道 and you know
用大量现金或 in heavy cash or
取25%的仓位 taking 25% position sizes that was
一般来说，我会买25%的仓位 generally you know I would buy a 25% position size
这通常是我所持的最大头寸 that was usually the largest position I would take
这样你就能得到那些猪的回报 so you can get those pig returns you know
25%的仓位规模相当激进 25% position size are actually quite aggressive
但你不需要 but you don't have to get
比这更有侵略性 much more aggressive than that
就像我说的 like I said you know
在美国投资锦标赛中 in the us investing championship
我别无选择，因为我要对抗你知道的 I had no choice because I was going against you know
其他的人 other people that were
你知道的，超级好斗 you know being hyper aggressive
所以你要你也要这么做 so you got you got to do the same
好吧 all right
被问到的问题 question being asked about
我不在焦点名单上 smci not on focus list
想知道你的想法 want to get your thoughts with
98的RS，没错，弗雷德的速度很快 an RS of 98 yeah and real quick just was for Fred
我没有我没有把钱锁起来 I don't I don't lock my money up in
你知道，在国库券上做了很长时间 you know in treasuries very long at all
最近我第一次投了些钱 for the first time recently I put some money
有些现金，有些现金 some some cash into some
3个月期国债 3 month and treasuries
但我把所有东西都放在货币市场里 but I keep everything in a money market
只是液体 and just it liquid
你知道我希望能够 you know I want to be able to
我希望能够立即转移我的现金 I want to be able to move my cash immediately
如果市场发生了什么 if something happens in the market
你知道我有机会吗 where you know I get opportunity
我希望能快速移动它 I want to be able to move it very quickly
所以我总是保持流动性 so I always stay liquid
所以就待在 so just stay at
回答关于国债的问题 just answer question on treasuries
但很高兴我很抱歉，妈妈 but glad I'm sorry that mom
smci smci
我的想法不在重点列表上，但是 thoughts on that not on focus list but
良好的RS基础 good RS fundamentals
好吧，你知道的 okay that's you know
它可能有良好的基本面 it maybe has good fundamentals
但是它跑到这里的空隙里 but this ran up here in a gap here
没有右侧发育 and there's no right side development
这是这是一个压缩的右边 so this is now this is a compressed right side
虽然它可能会继续上升 and while it may keep going up
如果它直接到这里 if it were to go straight up here
你知道，如果我做了，我会直接卖给它 you know if I did on it I would sell right into it
但我不会拥有它，因为它没有支点 but I wouldn't own it because it has no pivot
所以它的右侧还没有发育出来 so it hasn't really developed the right side yet
所以这不是，这不是 so it's not it's this not
我还没准备好呢 not set up yet for me too
所以你会问如果你马克 so question do you ask if you Mark
更喜欢by的风险回报组合 prefer the risk return profile of a by
底部较低 lower in the base
比处理 than the handle
或高处理 or high handle
否则就洗不出来了 or it doesn't come out in the wash
因为取一个更小的 because you take a smaller
下降时的位置 position when you're lowering
碱基就像分解前的enph a base like an enph before it broke down
正在形成一个高柄 was forming a high handle
好吧，首先你完全搞错了 okay first of all you've got this totally wrong
好吧，你在想 all right you're thinking of it
完全错误的 totally wrong
所以我不 so I don't
买入较小的仓位，因为底部较低 buy smaller positions because it's lower in the base
根本没有 not at all that has
跟我的仓位大小无关 nothing to do with my position sizing
事实上，我 as a matter of fact I
你知道，我显然更喜欢买低一点的 you know I obviously I would prefer to buy lower
我的意思是如果 I mean if
你想想，你知道你想买一个低 you think about it you know you want to buy a low
但这并不一定意味着 but that doesn't necessarily mean
我想在股票合适的地方买 I want to buy wherever the stock sets up properly
它有一个很好的装载表 whether it's it has a great load sheet
我就是从那里买的 well that I'm buying from there
如果它有一个作弊区域，一个手柄 if it has a cheat area a handle
无论它是 wherever it is
现在有了一些指导方针 now there are some guidelines
一些一般规则 some general rules
我可以用自己的经验给你一个大拇指 a thumb that I can give you from my own experience
我马上就会告诉你 and I'll tell you in just a second
但底线是如果我有 but bottom line is if I have
突然就有一大堆 all of a sudden there's a whole bunch of
假设有 let's say there's
主题都是些低级的东西 the theme is a whole bunch of low
作弊开始了 cheats start setting up
我们开始打破低欺骗 and we start breaking out of low cheats
我可以向你保证 well I could assure you that myself
马克里奇 Mark Ritchie
我们将在低欺骗上采取积极的行动 we're going to be getting aggressive on the low cheats
所以这真的会更有主旋律 you know so it's really going to be more of thematic
就像那些股票的来源 like those where where the stocks come out from
他们从哪里出来的基地 of the base where they come out from
一个低欺骗或一个柄是欺骗 a low cheat to cheat or a handle is
取决于整个市场 going to depend on the general market
这取决于裸市场的深度 it's going to depend on the depth of the bare market
修正的深度修正的时间 the depth of a correction how long the correction is
这更多的是市场和环境的作用 it's more a function of the market and the environment
这是一种结果而不是原因 and that's a it's an effect it's not a cause
现在给你们一个 so now to give you a
一个方针 one guideline though
当涉及到真正的大型顶盖时 when it comes to really mega capstocks
还有坚定的支持者和名字 and stalwarts and names that
你知道我们会的 you know we know are gonna be
拥挤的交易像亚马逊或 crowded trades like an Amazon or
每个人都知道的事情 something that everybody knows
每个人都拥有所有的资金 everybody owns all the funds you know
我更喜欢那些 on it I prefer those
尽量降低 lower if I can
因为 because
当它们开始走动时，它们就变得非常明显 they get very obvious when they start getting around
创新高，但即使那样也可能是主题 new highs but even then it could be thematic
它可能会经历一个很长的基础期 it could go through a long basing period
这其中有很大的波动性 and there's a lot of volatility around those
基座的下部部分 the lower parts of the base
他们不会绷紧并准备好直到他们 and they don't tighten up and set up until they're
进入新的高地 going into new high ground
所以你真的要远离任何类型的 so you really got to get away from any type of
我经常注意到这个 I notice a lot of times with these
我们得到的问题 questions that we get
你们被打得很惨 you guys are getting boxed
形成一种思考的方式，并试图提出 into a way of thinking and trying to come up with
在事情发生之前就知道答案，你知道的 the answers before it happens and saying well you know
如果它这样做，你知道什么规则 what are the rules you know if it does this
但你必须要灵活到 but you got to be flexible to the point where
看，这是低的凹槽凹槽和把手 look there's the low cheat the cheat and the handle
这就像 that's like
从基地出来你可以得到3个点 3 spots that you can get on coming out of the base
然后你甚至可以买 and then you could even buy
突破后的回调 on a pullback after the breakout
如果你有百分之几的爆发 if you just get a breakout of a couple percent
回到爆发点 pulls back to the breakout
现在你可以利用这里的回撤 now you can use a pullback by there
所以你有4个可能的位置 so you've got 4 potential spots to get on
如果你买不到股票 if you can't get on a stock
从这四个点的碱基中出来 coming out of a base out of those 4 spots
我们能做的不多了 there's not much more we can do
我的意思是, I mean that's
这些是我所有的工具 those are all the tools that I've
用过的，我给你 used and I've given you
如果它不成立它就不能成立 and if it doesn't set up it doesn't set up so
但是你必须要有灵活性和 but you've got to have the flexibility and the
你只需要做尾车，让火车 you just gotta be the caboose and let the train
拉着你，告诉你去哪 pull you and tell you where to go
不要陷进去 don't get caught into
但我不想回答你的问题 but to answer your question I do not take
更大的尺寸 more size on a
交易从一个手柄和一个低便宜 trade that's coming out of a handle versus a low cheap
我要同号的，我要大号的 I'll take the same size and I'm going to take big size
当事情开始起作用时 when things start working
不是在基地里面 not where it sets up within the base
你也回答这个问题怎么样，马克 when it's how about you answer that too Mark
我认为完全正确 absolutely right I think yeah
只是了解 just understanding
这就是 this is where
经历一两个循环是很有帮助的 going through a cycle or 2 is really helpful
因为你会注意到 because you'll notice that
你交易的原因是 well the reason you're trading
你会得到更多 you just get more
作弊的比低作弊的多，否则你会得到更多的手柄 cheats than low cheats or you get more handles
有些甚至是你熟悉的路 and some of that is even you know the way
也许市场会运转一点 maybe the market runs for a bit
然后所有的领导都立起一个高高的把手 and then all the leaders set up a high handle
就是 well that's just
这有点 it's sort of
再说一次，这是游戏展开的方式 again it's the way the game unfolds you know
而不是 rather than
又开始发表自己的观点了 digging in again with an opinion well
高把手比低把手更有效 the high handle works better than a low cheat
我都没这么想过 I don't even think about it that way
所以我不知道这是否有用，但是 so I don't know if that's helpful or not but
但我要说的是一般情况下，如果我要玩低欺骗 but I would say generally if I'm gonna play a low cheat
在一个更大的基地 in a bigger base
所以这不是权力游戏 so not a power play
这就是 that would be where
我通常会开始这个职位 I would generally start the position
因为 because
我在等着你去找一些空中补给 I'm expecting your running into some overhead supply
因为你在底部的三分之一 because you're in the lower 3rd of the base
所以你可能会在某个时候熄火 so you're probably going to stall out at some point
然后我会考虑是否有可能加入其中一个 and then I'll look to potentially add either at
如果你得到了一个作弊或你得到了一个手柄 if you get a cheat or you get a handle
路易斯的问题是问你能否解释一下 question from Luis is asking if you can explain
我今天早上交易了你的imx your imx I trade this morning
因为它是 because it was
就在你进来的那天 down on the day from where you entered
是啊，有时候也会这么做 yeah yeah well sometimes do that
你知道的 you know it was
有一天，它才刚刚开始出现 intra day it was just starting to turn up
但我还是买了它，因为它是在一天之内出现的 but so I did buy it as it was turning up intra day
只是稍微摆脱了低点 just a little bit off the lows
我不是因为股价下跌才买的 I wasn't buying as it was falling
很简单，我的意思是 um now very simply I mean I
这是我想买的 this is one that I was looking to buy
星期五我没有 on Friday I did not
你知道 and you know
我喜欢它悄无声息地进入这里的方式 I like the way it just came in here quietly
然后后退了一点 and pulled back a little bit
我基本上 and I'm basically
得到和我同样的价格 getting the same price that I would get
或者更低一点 or even maybe a tad lower
如果我在上面突破的时候买了它 if I was buying it on the break out above
这个主 this pivot at
2545 twenty five forty five so
我们得到了2557，那是 and we got into twenty five fifty seven so that's
几乎完美地超越了这一点 virtually perfect of getting in above that
2545 twenty five forty five
我不认为它能做得更好 I don't think it could have done much better
在周五 on Friday
基本上就是这样，另外一件事就是 so that's basically it and the other thing too is that
你知道的 you know it it
它是它把它拉回来的时候放进去的 it was it was putting in where as it pulled back here
如果它掉下来，然后 if it came back down and then
星期五跌破了前一天的价格 got below the previous day Friday
这将是一个户外的日子 it would be an outside day
所以这是非常负的 so that would be very negative
而且很快就会告诉我 and would very quickly tell me to
再一次走出去 get out so again
尽可能地接近危险点 trading as close to the danger point as I can
但现在，我现在才上车 but now just just getting in now
这也是周五没人能进的地方 the same spot where no would have gotten in Friday
没有什么 nothing nothing that
没有什么神秘或棘手的 nothing that secretive or tricky about it
好吧，你知道其中一个 all right you know one of the
也是为数不多的几个名字之一 one of the few names too
,不会 that aren't going
在一两天内立即转化为收益 into earnings immediately in a day or 2
这是另一件事 so that's another thing
我在找一些名字 I'm trying to find some names
布置得很好，我喜欢这一点 that are setting up nicely and I like that that
没有直接收益风险的公司 that don't have immediate earnings risk
道格在10月18日星期二问 Doug is asking on Tuesday October 18
smp the smp
这也会被认为是犯规吗 would that can be considered a foul through day as well
所以我很快地看了看 so I just went real quick and just looked at that
因为我看到了那个问题 because I saw that question and
我记得那天我相信我们 I remember that was the day I believe that we
我们曾经很成功，但后来我们的成绩很不理想 we were up big and then we came way off the highs
然后就结束了 and then ended up finishing up
如果高于1%就知道了 you know if it was above 1%
成交量增长1% up 1% on an increase in volume
是的，从技术上讲，它可以是一个文件通过一天 yes it could technically be a file through day
我知道你知道 I know that you know
我们否定了它，或者用大规模进攻夺取了它 we sort of negated it or took it with a grand assault
因为它太过亢奋了，而且它 because it came off so much off the highs and it had
它有更多的反转作用 more reversal action on it than it did
跟进行动 follow through action
所以我认为这是一个灰色地带 so I think that was sort of a gray area where
你知道这只是个人判断 you know it was a judgment call
所以我不知道该怎么做 so I'm not sure how
我该怎么处理，因为我没有 how I be de handled that because I didn't
我没有看他们是否 I didn't look and see if they
我把它叫做一天的档案，但是你知道他们 called it a file through day but you know they they
他们可能把它叫做档案日 they may have called it a file through day
但实际上他们 but actually that they
他们改变了 they changed the
我认为现在的比例 the percentage I think now to
一个点，我不知道，我还是用1% one point something I don't know I still use 1%
但是，我想说的是 but but let me just say this okay the
如果你在这里做的这些事 if all these things that you follow here and
你知道向我学习 and you know learn from me
请坚持一天是最不重要的 please a follow through day is the least important
我是说，我知道你知道，而不是 I mean I know you know and not take
不是要从奥尼尔身上拿走什么，但是 not take anything away from o'neill but
就连奥尼尔也曾如此 even o'neill has been
整天对文件很误解 very misunderstood with the file through day
以为你知道 thinking that you know
你知道每天都有文件整理日 you know there's a file through day
突然间你就知道了 and all of a sudden you know
他在大量买进股票 he's piling into stocks
奥尼尔用股票来衡量市场 o'neill gauged the market by stocks
每天的文件 the file through day
是虚拟发生的吗 is something that happens virtually
每一次 every single time
你走出熊市的低谷，进入牛市 you come off of a bear market low and go into a bull
市场 market
但就像我说的，它不是绝对正确的，你会得到很多 but like I said it is not infallible and you get many
错误的信号 false signals
这只是 it's just
给你一个你可能触底的信号 giving you an indication that you may be bottoming
你应该开始找了 and you should start looking
的设置 for the setups
但最终决定权在设置上 but the setups have the final say
不过我没看 I didn't look though
但它是不是也有5天的时间来降低马克 but was it or was it 5 days off to low Mark as well
在第13题上 on the 13 let's see so
我刚刚提到了这个间谍 I just bring up this spy
这是在 so that was on the
这里是18号，右边是1 2 3 here on the 18th right so that's one 2 3
这将是第4天尝试集会 so that would be the 4th day of attempt at rally
所以你可以 so you could have
是啊，你本可以这么说的 yeah you could have made a case for that
我认为 and I think on the
如果你看看其他的索引系统 if you look at some of the other index systems
让我看看是不是木钉的问题 let me see if it was the dowel
当然，如果那是unasdack的话 sure if that was the unasdack
是的，你知道 yeah again you know
我猜你可能有理由这么做 I guess you could have probably made a case for that
但我不确定它的百分比是多少 but again I'm not sure what it was up percentage wise
在那一天 on that day
没有什么是你知道的 no thing too is you know
你真的希望你的档案能保存好几天 you really want your file through days
一些最好的文件天数是 some of the best file through days are
你知道是爆炸性的 you know are explosive and have
非常大的体积 really big volume
之后会有额外的时间 and then have additional days after it
真正重要的是你的后续行动 it's really your subsequent action
比如当你四处走动的时候 like when you get around
当你走出低谷，你 when you come off the lows and you
你开始寻找4号那天的紫罗兰 you start looking for that violet of day on the 4th
第5天到第6天 5th 6th day up until
有时他们发生 sometimes they happen
15/16天，就越早发生 15/16 day the sooner they happen
一般来说，这是一个更强的迹象 generally the stronger indication that is
但你在寻找你想要的力量 but you're looking for power you're looking for
你在寻找股票 and you're looking for stocks
你可以看到股票的走势 you're seeing how the stocks are acting
在那个时候 around that time
这是你必须了解的全貌 it's a full picture you have to get
你知道你必须接受它 you know you have to take it in in
在整个图景中，而不是在真空中 in the whole picture and not just in a vacuum
用它来战胜近视 and beat myopic with it
好吧，我想我们将以最后一个问题结束 all right I think we'll finish with this last question
胜利者说他开始了他的 that victor's saying he started his
一年前11月和 journey here of being a trader a year ago November and
基本上只看到过Lord的爆发失败 essentially has only seen breakouts by lord fail
有很多的倒立，深蹲和停止动作 with a lot of reversals and squats and stopouts
他担心他不会被定罪 he's afraid he won't have the conviction
当他需要的时候，他会变得很有攻击性 to be get aggressive when he needs to
你能给我什么建议 what council can you give me
这样我就不会错过一个好机会 so that I don't miss a great opportunity
就像熊市一样 as the bear market will
当然会导致下一轮新的牛市 of course lead to the next new bull market
好吧，也许我们都可以回答这个问题 okay well maybe we can both answer that
你知道的 Mark in and you know
所以当你没有后台日志时，这是一件很困难的事情 so it's a tough thing when you don't have the back log
经验和成功你知道，所以如果你 of experience and have success you know so if you've
问题是 the thing is is that
你必须接近你的目标 you have to build some proximity to your goal
我已经说过很多次了 as I've said many times where
你知道每一次失败的尝试都会让你离你更近 you know every failed attemptis getting you closer
我可以向你保证 I can assure you that
当你处于熊市时，你就会知道 that you know when you're in a bear market
熊市持续的时间越长 the longer the bear market goes the
离牛市越近 the closer you're getting to a bull market
越失败的文件通过天 the more of failed file through days
你越接近一个有效的文件 the closer you're getting to a valid file through day
所以 so
你知道，只要你有信念 you know as far as you know having conviction
你不想有信念 you don't want to have conviction
你盲目地相信它，然后就跳进去了 where you just blindly trust it and just jump in there
你应该循序渐进 you should be moving incrementally
在成功的基础上 and building on success
这样你就能拿到证据了 so you'll get the evidence like you've
你已经有证据表明 you've already got the evidence that says
你不了解市场 you know the markets not
健康是因为正如你刚才所说 healthy because as you just said
这是我过去几年看到的一切 all I've seen in the last years
很多失败和突围失败 a lot of failures and break out failures
是的，这就是我们都在经历的 yes that's what we're all experiencing
这就是反馈 so that's the feedback
这是让你这么做的反馈 that's the feedback that tells you to
对他们没有信心 not have conviction in them
但当情况发生变化他们就开始工作了 but when that changes and and they start working
你会看到一个完全不同的 you're going to see a drastically different
图片 picture
你会看到一个完全不同的结果 you're going to see a drastically different outcome
当你看到的时候或者我应该说性格 and when you see that or I should say character
当你看到性格的变化 when you see that character change
是的，你需要相信它 yeah you need to trust it
你必须相信股票 you do have to trust the stocks
你知道的，马克 and you know going back Mark
我已经说过很多次了 and I've said this many many times
但从贪婪中走出来 but coming off the covet
熊市，你知道马克和我谈过 bear market you know Mark and I had a conversation and
一堆股票都开了 bunch of stocks were setting up and
你知道我们 we're you know
在裤子上拉屎来买，因为 crapping our pants to buy them because
你知道那是世界末日 you know it was the end of the world
colvid标题，我的意思就是它 colvid the headlines I mean just it
我们以前从未见过 we never seen that before
大流行，你们知道 pandemic and you know
马克打电话给我说你知道我们在这里做什么吗 Mark call me up said you know what do we do here
股票爆发 the stocks breaking out
所以我们买了 so we buy them
你知道我们买暴涨的股票我们相信股票 you know we buy the breakouts we trust the stocks
事实证明是这样的 and it turned out to be
从那里开始就有了一个很好的贸易环境 a great trading environment going forward from there
低谷已经到来 and the lows were in
我想是在4月6日 in April 6 I think was
当我们有了跟进日等等 when we got the follow through day and so forth
但是马克，我让你谈谈 but Mark I'll let you talk about
获得信心 getting that conviction
我认为那些故事 and I think that stories
是的，我是说我 yeah I mean I
听着，我已经干了10年了 look I've already been doing this 10 years
而markova做了大概37年 and markova doing it whatever 37 years or something
他说 and he was like
我以前也没见过这个 well I've never seen this before either
但股票不会下跌 but the stocks don't fail
意思是如果你跟着他们 meaning if you follow them
你会让自己处于一个有利的位置 you're gonna put yourself in a good position
我想你知道，你没有 and I think you know okay you don't have the
也许你没有 maybe you don't have
重要的几年，甚至重要的季度，可以依靠它来说 the big years or even big quarters to lean on to say it
我知道我能做什么 well I know what I'm capable of
但在某些时候，你会有一些不错的交易 at some point though you're gonna have some good trades
所以你只需要继续 so you just build on
如果你没有大的成功 if you haven't had big successes
从小事做起 build on the little ones
我几乎可以向你保证在某个时刻 and I can just almost guarantee you at some point
我们会看到 we're gonna see
你知道马克刚刚描述的另一个版本 you know another version of what Mark just described
哪里会有一堆股票 where there will be a bunch of stocks
故事将会是世界末日 and the narrative will be end of the world
人们会说啊，但是我们正处于经济衰退或者 people were saying ah but we're in a recession or
你知道的事情 you know things
事情看起来很糟糕 things look horrible and
你知道 you know
如果你跟随股票和过程 if you follow the stocks and follow the process
你要 you're gonna be
再建立 and build again
建立在成功的基础上，你会有很好的状态，所以 build on success you're gonna be in great shape so
我还要加上一点 and I would also just add
如果你已经干了一年了 if you've been doing this about a year
你还在用它 and you're still with it
这说明你在坚持策略 it tells me you're sticking with the strategy
所以好工作总会有转机的 so good job things will turn at some point
你会在那里，你会准备好 and you'll be there and you'll be ready
让我给你们一些非常好的临别忠告 well let me give you guys some real good parting advice
这就是 and this is where
不，你已经干了一年了 no you're you've been doing it for a year you know
这真的是 and this is really the
大关键手术表扬 the big key operative praise
你知道好 you know okay
假设你搞砸了下一个碗的市场 so let's just say you blow the next bowl market
你搞砸了，你没有好好利用它 you blow it you don't take advantage of it well
而且你没有定罪 and you don't have the conviction
你没有你没有 and you don't you don't
你不会有很好的回报 you don't make a brilliant good return
好吧，你又能活一年了 okay well you'll have another year under your belt and
或者别的什么，你的资历 or whatever a number of years under your belt
你得在9点55年后思考 you got to be thinking in 09:55 years
一年内没有 not in one year
担心错过下一个牛市 worrying about missing the next bull market
是的，你当然要去 yes of course you're going to
我要你为此做好准备 I want you to plan for that
你会问你该如何计划 and you're asking how do you plan for that
那太好了 that's great
但如果你下一段时间表现不好 but if you don't do well during that next period
你又一次 you are once again
越来越多的经验，越来越近 getting more experience and getting closer
我向你保证 and you I assure you
在下一个熊市 at the next bear market
你会准备得更充分 you'll be more prepared
因为你经历了这次 because you went through this one
以及下一个牛市 and the next bull market
你会准备得更充分 you'll be more prepared
因为你错过了那个 because you have missed that one
你就能分析出哪里出了问题 and you'll be able to analyze what went wrong
你会变得越来越好 and you'll be getting better and better
所以 and so
如果你花5分钟呢 what if it took you 5
要在这方面做得很好 years to be able to be great at this
如果你花了10年呢 what if it took you 10 years
我就是这么看的 that's the way I looked at it
甚至当我 even when I was
30岁了，你知道的 30 years old you know and
而且我一直在做这件事 and and I've been doing it for
10年左右吧 you know 10 years or so
我的第一笔交易是另一种 I started you know my first trade was another
到了18岁 by 18 years old
我还在说 I still said them
我说如果再过10年呢 I said what if it takes another 10 years you know and
我是你知道的 and I'm you know and and
汤姆40，然后我 and it takes me Tom 40 and then I
直到我50岁 really kill it for another 10 years until I'm 50
如果你使我很好 I well if you make
10000000 20000000 100000000美元 10,000,000 20,000,000 $100,000,000
你知道它值这么多钱 you know it's well worth the weight
是的，这是值得的 yeah it's worth the weight
而你才入行一年，你知道这就像 and you're only a year in you know that's like
你知道那是你能得到的最多的努比了 you know that that's as nubi as you can get
所以不要 so don't
不要有太高的期望 don't have 2 high expectations
对于时间的长短 for the amount of time
你需要变得擅长于此 that you need to become good at this
因为我没见过多少人 because I haven't seen too many people
在这方面做得很好 get really great at this
一两年后 you know in a year or 2
通常情况下要花更多的时间 it usually takes a bit more than that
所以你要你要 so you're going to you're going to have
自信心的问题 trouble with your confidence
还有你交易的麻烦 and trouble with your trading
你会有好月经的 you'll have good periods
但你也会有不好的月经期 but you'll also have some bad periods
你会学到新东西 and you'll learn new things
它将会是 and it's going to be
来来回回了一会儿 a back and forth for a little while
好了，就这么说 all right so with that said
我们再来谈谈这个问题 we'll leave you on that note again
我们会公布一些收益 there are some earnings that we'll be posting
在这周剩下的时间里 through the remainder of the week
请继续关注我们的直播 and also stay tuned to the live stream for
来自马克的实时警报 real time alerts from Mark throughout the week
这个视频的回放将会 the replay of this video will be
马上就到 available in just the next few moments
我们会抓住你们的 and we'll catch you guys
如果不是更早的话，至少要一周 in one week's time if not sooner
好了，待会儿见 okay see you guys later
希望今天对大家有帮助 hope it's been helpful today
保重，谢谢，伙计们 take care guys thanks guys