好的 我将每一个人 欢迎来到这个周末的学习环节 Okay, I'll everyone. Welcome to this weekend weekly study session.
今天我不会讲任何股票 I'm not going to go over any stocks today.
实际上今天是周六 我甚至还没有完成我的库存工作 但我预计不会发现太多 It's actually Saturday, and I haven't even done my stock work yet, but I do not anticipate finding much.
我们完全没有可以改变的股票设置 但现在 我们 We have a complete dearth of stock setups that could change, but right now, we're
不想买太多东西 当然 我们已经到处尝试了一些名字 就像上周发生的那样 但市场太不稳定了 无法找到任何类型的新兴领导者 not looking to buy much. Of course, we've tried a few names here and there, as recently has this last week, and the market is just too volatile to get a hold of any type of new, emerging leaders.
我们来看看总体市场 So let's take a look at the general market.
这里有很多可以讨论的 There's a lot to discuss here.
让我带你过去 首先 我们的风险模型是从11月22日开始的手机信号 从11月22日开始 手机信号就没有中断过一次 Let me take you through. 1st of all, our risk model is on the cell signal from november 22, it has not gone off that cell signal not one single time since november 22.
所有的分量都是负的 说到负的 在我们的风险模型中 在所有的风险模型中都是负的 你可以看到细胞信号 当然 这是11月22日 All the components are negative. Uh, speaking of being negative, in our risk model, where negative across the board in on all our risk models, you can see the cell signal, of course, here on november 22.
从那时起 我们就开始纠正 如果你还记得的话 我们从低点反弹 有些人认为我们经历了一个跌入谷底的一天 也许谷底是在一个风险模型中 And since then, we've corrected. If you recall, we had a bounce off the lows, uh, some thought that we had a fall through day there, and that, uh, maybe the bottom was in a risk model.
我可没上当 Did not fall for that head fake.
我们也没有太过乐观 也没有看到一种很容易就能打破这些低点的情况 这就是最终发生的事情 Nor did we get too bullish there, and looking at a scenario that could very easily undercut these lows, and that's what ended up taking put taken place.
UH 研究主干模型 它停止了纯粹基于个股的交易环境模型 UH, looking at the stem model, which to stop trading environment models purely based on individual stocks.
这已经被阅读了很长一段时间了 这是我们最大的防御性阅读 That that's read, it's been read for quite a while, which is our maximum defensive, uh, reading.
我认为它只是很短暂地 一天 进入中性 但仅仅是 我们没有看到任何类型的吸引来看涨和个股 And it just very briefly for, I think it was for one day, went to a neutral, but merely, we haven't seen any type attraction to to get bullish and individual stocks.
现在 最近的 当然 就在这周 长期胎面模型 我告诉过你们我认为我们接近了 我们可能会得到 完全的手机信号在长期趋势模型中 已经 正如实际发生的 下降到25% 低于50% Now, more recently, of course, as of this week, the long term tread model, which I told you I thought we were getting close and we may get, and outright cell signal on the long term trend model, that has, as actually happened, moved down to 25 %, which is below the 50 %.
这是一个官方的长期信号 And that's an official long term cell signal.
现在 在你对此过于紧张之前 我们要记住 我们通常会在周期性调整中 通常会在低点附近得到信号 Now, before you get too nervous about this, we've got to keep in mind that we'll generally get um in cyclical corrections, will generally get the cell signals to happen close to the lows.
不是说我们现在有很多货 也不是说我们的货少了 Not not that we're making a load just yet, or that I'm saying that we've made a low.
我认为我们很有可能会跌到更低的水平 但我们可能正在接近周期性回调 Um, I think there's a good chance that we can go even lower here, but we could be getting close in a cyclical a correction.
在一个长期的球市场中 你会得到这些 这些长期的细胞信号 或者在某个时间 你做了一个低的 Within a long term secular ball market, you'll get these, uh, these longer term cell signals around the time, or or somewhere around the time, that you make a low uh.
所以再说一次 这可能是一个很好的迹象如果我们要进行性矫正的话 So again, this, uh, this could be a good sign moving forward if we're in that sexual correction.
但我们必须等待更多的证据 当然 你必须把这看作是一个潜在的 长期的下降 But we've got to wait for more evidence, of course, and you have to take this as a potential, uh, secular decline.
永远 永远要认真对待这个风险 Always, always take that risk seriously.
嗯 当然 我们一直在为 时髦 辩护已经有一段时间了 Um. And of course, we've been, uh in that defense of Posher for quite some time now.
现在烦恼是类似的情况 So now the vex is is a similar situation.
UM 你会经常遇到这些 短期修正和周期性修正 市场会在3030点左右的时候触底 大约两次 UM, you'll have very often where when you get these, the shorter term corrections and the cyclical corrections, the the market will bottom around time where the vicks gets above around 3030, twoish.
有些人用它作为一种信号 Some people use that as sort of a by signal.
当当波动率达到这么高的时候 When the when the volatility gets that high.
问题是双重的 The the problem is, is twofold one.
当波动性像这样上升时 是的 你可能会在整体市场中得到一个低点 When the volatility gets up like that, yes you might get a low in the general market.
但当波动性很高时 你会看到很多拉锯和个股 But when the volatilities high, you get a lot of whipsaws and individual stocks.
你还是要非常小心 You have to still be very careful.
当波动率高的时候 你希望波动率低 当你变得激进的时候 When volatilities high, you want volatility to be low, uh, when you're getting aggressive.
另一件事是 就像长期模型一样 是的 很多时候你会在这些 这些 呃 这些评级附近底部 但它也是你在有更大的下降之前得到的读数 The other thing is is that, just like the longer term models that yes, you get a lot of times you bottom around these, these, uh, these ratings, but it also is the reading that that you get just before you have a larger decline.
所以股市崩溃和长期的下跌会发生 或者 我应该说 当你达到30的水平时 会开始升温 So stock market meltdowns and longer term, uh, secular declines happen, or, or, I should say, uh, start picking up that steam when you get at this 30 level.
我们处理这个问题的方式可能听起来很矛盾 但事实并非如此 So the way we we handle this may sound contradictory, but it's not.
我们处理这个问题的方法是 当我们到达这些水平时 我们开始非常仔细地观察底部的迹象 如果我们能看到这些迹象 很好 你知道 我们就进入了 The way we handle this is that when we get to these levels, we start watching very carefully for signs of a bottom, and if we can see those signs, great, you know, we move right in.
但是如果市场不能反弹 你看到的是持续的疲软 当你在这些你应该看到 呃 某种形式的触底行动的时期看到这些 那么你知道 你有一些真正的疲软 这是更危险的 But if the market can't rally, and you're seeing persistent weakness, when you get these at these periods where you should be seeing, uh, some type of bottoming action, then you know, you've got some real weakness there, and it's even more dangerous.
你只要等它过去就行了 And you got, you just have to to wait it out.
另一件事是硬币的两面都有可能 Now, another thing that is is a sort of a could be either side of the coin.
这是当你得到这些洗出量的时候 你有很多的下降量和上升量 Here is when you get these wash out volumes, where you've got a lot of down volume versus up volume.
这是另一个 另一个市场触底的特殊情况 当你看到这些这些大的 十分之一更大的下降 以增加交易量 特别是如果你看到一些这样的情况 最近有三个聚集在一起 This is another, another one of those particular cases where markets bottom, when you get these these big, ten to one are greater down by them to up volume, especially if you get a couple of them, which we had three of them clustered recently.
但同样 它们也会在熔毁之前发生 But again, they also occur before you get meltdowns.
所以 嗯 就像回到雄天鹅下降之前 我们有相同的读数 在之前的图表中 让我在这里给你们看 在左边 在这里 你们看到我们有那个读数我们有03 10比1下降的天数 就在这里 So, uh, something like going back just before the cob decline, that we had that same reading, where we had, um, in that previous chart, let me just show you here, over on the left side, over here, you see that we had that reading where we got those 03:10 to one down days, that was right here.
我们的收支突然恢复平衡 但后来又大幅下滑 Um, we got a snap back balance, but then we had the big decline.
现在 不同之处在于 在你再次紧张之前 不同之处在于 我们已经经历了一次下跌 我们有很多股票是正确的 纳斯达克市场已经大幅下跌 还有一些其他的指数 So again, now, the difference right now, before you get nervous again, the difference is is that we've already had a decline, and we've had lots of stocks correct, and the market's already down considerably on the Nasdaq, in a few other indexes here.
所以我们有一些下降 So we've had had some decline.
这并不意味着风险消失了 但这只是意味着我们不是刚开始的立体音响 That doesn't mean that the risk is gone, but it just means that it's not a stereo where we're just starting the top.
现在 有些人指出情绪是AI最糟糕的关卡之一 但我并没有发现这是最好的情绪指示器 Now, some are pointing out to the sentiment being some of the worst levels a AI, which I haven't found to be the greatest sentiment indicator.
然而 我们现在所处的水平是自两次大熊市低点以来最糟糕的 However, we are at levels that are some of the worst that we've seen since two really, you know, big bear market lows.
甚至回到03 04的低点 就多头和空头而言 我们低于二级水平 And even going back to the o 03:04 low, we're below that level two as far as the bulls are concerned versus the bears.
所以有很多熊 So there is a lot of bears.
再次 这很好 因为 我们 我们从现在这个水平 当你开始一些阅读和再一次 你知道 我们这里了 我们这次集会 和我们开始看起来也许这场景 我指出的那样 你有 嗯 1998年的情况下 削弱低 然后这就是给你的 给你使最终低 然后你可以向上移动 右侧 And and that's great, because again, we're, we're starting from this level now, when you're starting to get some of these readings and and again, you know, we, we came off here, we rallied, and we're starting to look like maybe that scenario that I pointed out, where you had the, um, the 1998 scenario, where you undercut that low, and then that's what gives you, gives you that makes that final low, and then you can move up that right side.
结果证明这是一个周期性的熊市 And it turns out to be a cyclical bear market.
我认为这可能需要更多的时间 或者需要更多的不利因素 I think this might take a little more time, or maybe need some more downside.
我觉得这里仍然有自满情绪 我再给你们看第二个我们可能要经历更多的横向波动 或者甚至可能会有一些短期的 呃 从这里开始 呃 呃 你知道 这里的顽固分子 嗯 最弱的手 I feel like there's still complacency here, and I'm going to show you just a 2nd And we may have to go through more of a sideways action for a little bit, or maybe even maybe even some type of short term, uh, melt down from here that really just washes out the last of the bottom fishers and and the, uh, um, you know, the holdouts here, um, the weakest of hands.
嗯 再一次 这表明 像94年低点这样的情况 一些立体音响指出 不仅仅是因为技术面 其背后的基本面因素 美联储的政策等等 Um. And again, that's pointing out, pointing to a scenario like the 94 low, which some of these stereos were pointing to, are not just because of the technicals, the fundamentals behind them, the FED policy and so forth.
而且 这和这些优先级很吻合 Also, uh, it fits well with these precedence.
现在你看看道琼斯指数 它看起来和94点差不多 我们正在下跌 试探低点 Now you take a look at the Dow, that's looking similar to 94, where we're coming down, testing the lows.
如果我们能在这里反弹 我们就能稳定甚至反弹 And if we can bounce around here, we can stabilize and maybe even rally.
从现在开始 我们可能只能原地踏步了 From here, we may just have to mark time.
也许我们的价格更低 嗯 我们将会看到 Maybe we undercut the lows. Uh, we'll see.
我觉得这是件好事 And I-I think that would be a good thing.
其实我想看到 我知道有些人想看到最低层的地狱 保持标记 I'd actually like to see, I know some people want to see the lowest hell, the marker hold up.
我想看它被洗掉 I want to see it wash out.
我想看到我们来到这里 把剩下的 这些海底的鱼彻底洗干净 I want to see us come down here and really wash out the rest of these, uh, these bottom fishers.
因为我仍然认为这是有市场的 我将在第二部分展示给你们看 Because I still think there's someplace see the market, which I'm going to show you in just a 2nd.
现在 记住 我上周指出 一些人来说 我认为 是误解 当你有一个敌对的利率环境下 尤其是在通胀环境像我们有 你需要更多的情绪部分裸露的 需要更多的熊情绪放在低相比 如果利率优惠 当他们的不利 你需要 我们发现你需要嗯投资者智能数字降低到30的水平 Now, remember, I pointed out last week that some people, I think, are misunderstanding the fact that when you have a interest rate environment that's hostile, particularly in inflationary environment like we have, you're going to need more sentiment barish, are going to need more bear sentiment to put in a low compared to if interest rates were favorable, when their unfavorable, you need, we found that you need to get the the um investors intelligence numbers down into the 30 level.
当你看多头和多头和空头的比例时 当你有有利的利率时 你可以降到50左右 或者介于50和40之间 这是一个很好的机会 你正在做一个底部 如果你愿意 悲观情绪已经足够强烈了 Um, when you're looking at the, uh, the bulls divided by the bulls and bears, as opposed to when you have the favorable interest rates, you can get down to around the 50 level, or somewhere between the 50 and 40 level, and and you, uh, it's a good chance that you're making, you're making a bottom, that the, uh, pessimism is thick enough, if you will.
现在 我还在关注另一件事 当我当我观察情绪时 我一直在关注 我喜欢观察人们在说什么 也喜欢观察人们在做什么 Now, another thing I'm looking at, and I constantly keep up tab on when I when I watch the sentiment, I like to watch what people are saying, but also what people are doing.
我喜欢看到他们当我们在一个大的调整中 我希望看到他们达成一致 真正的毛巾 众所周知的毛巾 被扔到一边 在董事会 And I like to see them when we're when we're in a big correction, I want to see those get into agreement, and really the towel get, the proverbial towel, get thrown and across the board.
看跌数据也显示出一些自满情绪 因为我们在这里进入了一个更低的低点 事情真的很惨淡 你有1000点的下跌天数 我们没有在看跌农场上回升 我希望看到它也能回升 And the the put numbers are showing also a bit of complacency as we went to a lower low here, and things are really quite bleak, and you get thousand point down days, we're not picking up on the put farm, and I'd like to see that pick up as well.
所以 我在想 你知道 这里有自满 So again, I'm thinking, you know, there's complacency here.
这是标准普尔500指数中最糟糕的明星之一 只能追溯到1939年 当然 这是瑞恩·迪特里希在推特上报道的 This is one of the worst stars that we've ever had in the S-P 500, going only back to 1939, as of course, reported and tweeted by Ryan Dietrich.
而且 这里似乎仍然有很多自满情绪 And again, it seems like there's still a lot complacency here.
你有 我前几天在推特上说 你有散户买入这里的股票 而且仍然买很多这些股票 认为他们在捡便宜 You have, I tweeted this the other day, where you've got retail buying coming in here, and still buying a lot of these stocks, thinking they're picking up bargains.
这让我想起了1999年 And this really reminds me of 1999.
进入2000年 就相似之处而言 他们一直认为那些回调是可行的 因为 他们不是回调 他们完全崩溃了 你知道 这些关键的领导机构解除了他们多年来建立的所有大仓位 Top going into 2000, as far as the similarities are, they kept thinking that those pullbacks were viable because and, and they weren't pullbacks, they were full blown, you know, breaks in these key leaders that were the institutions unwinding all their big positions that they built up over the years.
现在看起来像是又一次撤退 但其实不是 And now it looks like just another pullback, but it's, it's not.
这才是真正的倒退 这是 这是真正的下降 This is the real pullback. This is the This is the real decline.
你知道真正的下降在哪里吗 You know where the real decline?
请站起来 有时候 当你经历了很多年 每次股票下跌 你知道 亚马逊或谷歌的股票 它会反弹 创造新的高点 Please stand up. Sometimes, as you go over a number of, uh years, where every time the stock pulls back, you know, an Amazon or Google, it's, it goes back up, it makes new highs.
你知道 买这个总是很划算的 You know, it's always a great buy.
它让投资者相信 现在只是又一次这样的时刻 It convinces investors that now this is just another one of those times.
最后 他们把自己卷起来 卷起来 卷起来 然后把自己炸了 And then finally, now they double up, they double up, they double up, and they blow themselves up.
发生一个又一个周期 就像市场上的捕蝇草 Happen cycle after cycle. It's like a the market sake of Venus fly trap.
它只会让你 呃 失败 It just sets you up, uh, for failure.
如果你不守纪律 不尊重风险 风险最终会害了你 If you're not disciplined and you don't respect risk, it will get you eventually.
而这一次 我认为 正如我一年前 一年半前预测的那样 所有的底层捕捞者都将受到影响 我们会造成整整一代人的损失 或者是一些非常大的损失 And this time, I think it's getting all those bottom fishers, as I um predicted a year ago, year and a half ago, that we were setting up an entire generation or some really big losses here.
现在 一些人指出 联邦基金必须增加更多 或者已经增加 或者多次增加才会导致经济衰退或者市场出现问题 Now, some are pointing out that, you know, the fed funds will have to go up more uh to or have or a number of hikes before it would cause a recession or cause a problem in the market.
这是真的 然而 增长的速度更重要 这就是现在的问题 And that is true. However, the speed at which the hikes come is more important, and that's where right now.
我们正在加快步伐 进入快速紧缩周期 这对市场产生了抑制作用 We are on an accelerated pace and a fast tightening cycle, and that has a suppressive effect on the market.
所以现在真正的关键 也只是再次指出 哦 我们进入了总统选举周期 就这个周期而言 我们进入了一个逆风 正如你在第一个伟大的领域看到的那样 So the real key now, and also just to point out again, oh, we are into that presidential election cycle, that we're going into a headwind as far as that cycle is concerned, as you can see in that in that 1st great area.
但好消息是 在那一年 进入第二个总统年的后期 你有一个非常好的顺风 然后在那之后的一年又有一个顺风 But the good news is is, post that that year, going into the later part of the 2nd presidential year, you've got a really good tail wind, and then another tail wind a year after that.
所以 我们这里有好消息 但在短期内 我们还有很多工作要做 So again, we we there's good news here, but in the in the short term, we still have a lot of work to do.
这也是最糟糕的一年 期中考试 Again, this is the worst year, the midterm year.
但我之前指出的是 膨胀是这里的关键 这是房间里的大象 But what I was pointing out before was inflation is really the key here, that this is the big elephant in the room.
因为 你知道 有人告诉我们 这只是暂时的 但事实并非如此 And because, you know it, you know, it was told that, we were told that it was transitory, and that turned out not to be the case.
供应链应该是正常化的 你知道 一年六个月 The supply chains were supposed to be normalized, you know, down the road, six months a year.
事实证明并非如此 That turned out not to be the case.
所以 你知道 我们失去了一些信誉 So, you know, there's some credibility lost here.
现在 你知道 美联储真的在这里踩刹车了 And now the Fed is, you know, really stepping on the brakes here.
这是一个真正的大问题 我们是要缓和通胀 还是继续这样 美联储将不得不采取更激进的措施 这将对股市不利 And this is the real big question Are are we going to moderate here with inflation, or is this going to keep going and the Feds going to have to get even more aggressive, which would be negative for stocks.
当然 我们要往上走 Of course, we're moving up here.
几十年来 通货膨胀一直保持在一定范围内 近年来一直处于极低水平 但现在我们已经超出了这个范围 这是一个大问题 After many decades of having inflation in a certain range and being exceptionally low in most recent years, we've moved out of that range now, and that's the big concern.
当然 当美联储提高利率时 就有经济衰退的风险 And of course, as you as the fed raises these rates, there's a risk of recession.
目前 E-C-R-I周领先指数 我认为它至少会跌破纤维 Right now, the E-C-R-I weekly leading index, and I look at this to get below at least the fiber.
目前10的水平并不能预测经济衰退 The ten level is not predicting a recession at this point.
我们还没有到经济衰退的地步 We haven't gotten up to the point where we're seeing that recession just yet.
不过 欧洲现在正接近经济衰退 Um, however, europe, right now is nearing a recession.
我们现在让中国解锁了 大约三分之一的全球经济在某些领域正在明显减弱 We got China unlocked down about right now, about one 3rd of the global economy is weakening in some areas, significantly.
所以这是一件好事 也是一件坏事 So this, this is, this is a good thing, and it's a bad thing.
这给大宗商品价格带来了下降的压力 这是好事 因为这将缓和通胀 It's putting pressure on commodity prices to decline, and that's good because that will moderate inflation.
但这是缓和通胀和制造衰退的一线之差 But there's this fine line of of moderating this inflation and creating a recession.
鲍威尔表示 实现这一目标的机会很大 Powell suggested that there was a good chance of achieving.
他称之为软着陆 这意味着不会出现衰退 He called it a softish landing, which would mean no recession.
然而 这在很大程度上取决于很多事情 美联储是否犯了错误 是否过于激进 是否奇怪的全球发展超出了我们的控制 超出了美联储的控制 如果你愿意 我们必须看看全球舞台上发生了什么 However, that depends largely in part on a number of things whether the FED makes a mistake, its too aggressive, and odd the global developments that are outside of our control, outside the FEDS controls, we have to see what what's happening in the global uh arena, if you will.
所以现在出现了其他类型的 所谓的加息 如果你愿意 不只是美联储的加息 还有其他的 所谓的紧缩 So now there's, there's been other types of, quote unquote hikes, if you will, not just the FED hikes, but there's also other, quote unquote tightenings.
没有 抵押贷款利率上升了很多 从2美元到现在 固定利率的5 5%上升了15% No. Mortgage rates are up quite a bit, um to from below in the I guess the twos to now 5.5% on the 30 are fixed dollars up about 15 %.
当然 你们知道财富效应 一些人认为s和PS下降了15% And of course, you know the wealth effect, the s and PS down about 15 %, some believe.
我听说过一些很好的例子 CPI在一年半之后 被包装成2% And I have heard some good cases made for the CPI being a year and a half down the road, being packed 2 %.
嗯 它现在正在北京的进程中 Um And that it's in the process of peking right now.
如果通货膨胀被控制住 或者相对较快地控制住 这将会是一个病态的小调整和一个很好的买入机会 UM And and if, and if inflation is tamed or or tames down relatively soon, this is going to turn out to be a sick little correction and a great buying opportunity.
然而 我不认为这将是一个伟大的买入机会 在一些领域 每一次都是伟大的买入机会 However, I don't think it's going to be a great buying opportunity in some of the areas that were great buying opportunities every other time.
所有人都说这只是1 但是当你看一些不同领域的货币供应经济学家们看的时候 这表明通货膨胀会出现在这里 And all talk about that just 1 s but when you look at some of the money supply in some of these various areas that economists look at, UH, it's suggesting just that that inflation will come in here.
一种供给倾向于引领通货膨胀率 它在这里出现了很多次 One supply tends to lead the inflation rate, and it's come in quite a bit here.
所以 这是一个很好的例子 但我不会盲目地相信它 看不见证据 Uh, so again, there is a good case for that, but I would not put my faith in that just blindly by without seeing the evidence.
首先 收益率曲线显示 当它倒过来时 联邦基金可能涨得太多了 1st, the the yield curve suggested that we were fed funds might have been getting up too much when it inverted.
但是 3个月的t年期国债 我给你们看的最可靠的收益率 2年期的t年期国债和3个月的t年期国债的收益率远没有倒过来 However, the three month t bill to the ten years, the most reliable yield curb I'm showing you here, the two year to the ten and the three months that it to the ten has is far from inverting.
在2点10分的轨道上有2个未倒转的 And we've uninverted two here on the on the 02:10.
然而 这并不是一个精确的指标 However, this is not a pinpoint indicator.
这有时会 你知道的 反转 然后它会在几个月到几年的时间里 在经济或股票市场上 引起问题 This sometimes can, you know, invert, and then it takes months to years before it causes a problem, uh, in the economy or in the stock market.
真正的关键是观察个股 观察你交易的区域 寻找那些新的领导者 The real key is to look at the individual stocks and look in the area that you traffic in and look for those new leaders.
如果你看一下IBD50指数 这是我们通常会访问的游戏类型 你可以看到 我的意思是 我们在这里接近低点 If you look at the IBD 50 index, and this is the type of games we would generally traffic in, you can see, I mean, we're right near lows here.
这真的是令人印象深刻的反弹 It really the rally that looks so impressive.
也许在其他一些指数中 比如纳斯达克指数 从3月份的低点反弹后看起来没有那么令人印象深刻 4月份这个指数 Maybe in some of the other indexes, like the NASDAQ, did not look so impressive coming off the lows back there in March, april on this index.
还有一些其他的索引我们当然可以 And there's some other indexes to we could certainly, uh can on.
但是 这些个股会告诉你什么呢 But again, this individual stocks are what are gonna tell you?
人们会问我 我们是怎么知道的 People can ask me, well, how do we know?
你知道 当市场触底的时候 当这一切结束的时候 当股票建立起来并开始运转的时候 You know, when the market is bottom, when this is over, when stocks set up and start working.
因为指数是否触底并不重要 如果股票在上涨 突破并发挥作用 指数是否下跌也不重要 Because it doesn't matter if the index is bottom, and it doesn't matter if they go lower if stocks are setting up and breaking out and working.
所以你要通过观察来试水 然后你要用真正的钱来试水 用飞行员购买来试水 So you're going to test the waters by watching, and then you're going to test the waters with some real money, with pilot buys.
如果他们开始工作 你将会 你将会提高 你将会非常接近低点 或者在第一次上升的时候 你将有足够的时间让自己完全投入 And if they start working, you're going to, you're going to step it up, and you're going to be in very close to the lows, or on that 1st leg up, and you'll have more than enough time to get yourself fully invested.
你是逃不掉的 It's not going to get away from you.
不过不用担心 如果你要担心 那就担心赔钱 Don't worry that, though. If you're going to be concerned, be concerned about losing money.
不要担心错过牛市 Don't be concerned about missing a bull market.
我们将迎来牛市 但我们必须在这里生存下去 确保波动不会把我们折磨致死 We're going to get the bull market, but we've got to stay alive here and make sure that the volatility doesn't whip us to death.
嗯 现在 我认为纳斯达克100指数和fang股票 相对于SNP来说 是最高的 Um now, I think the Nasdaq 100 and the fang stocks, on a relative basis to the SNP, are are topped.
你有很长一段时间表现不佳 Um, you had a long period of out performance.
这是一个很大的加速从NASAC100指数到标普指数的上涨和下跌 It was A-A major acceleration in the rate of the advance and out performance of from the NASAC 100 to the S&P and and the fang names.
在这个过程中 很多关键领导者都表现出了异常的弱点 他们打破了第四阶段的趋势 在相对表现上甚至在绝对基础上都有一个顶点 And in that now has shown a very abnormal weakness in a lot of key leaders, and they're breaking down stage four down trends, and you had a climax top in the relative performance and even on a absolute basis.
现在看来我们已经达到了顶峰 我认为在很长一段时间内表现不佳 我们可能会在某个时候获得强劲反弹 And now we look like we've topped there, and I think there's a long period of under performance that we're going to probably get a strong rally at some point.
如果你想交易 可能会有一个可交易的情况 And if you want to trade, maybe have a tradeable situation.
你知道 如果你是在海底捕鱼的人 You know, if you're one of those bottom fishers.
但在这里你要非常小心 But you gotta be really careful here.
58规则已经被广泛使用 嗯 The 58 rule has proliferated. Um.
我做这个已经40年了 我只看到过这种5080的增殖可能三次 你知道 可能在40年里有三到四次 I've been doing this for 40 years that I've only seen this type of 5080 proliferation maybe three times, you know, maybe three or four times in 40 years.
所以每一次 它激增的地方都是世俗领袖的领域 他们达到顶峰 在很多情况下 这些股票花了很多年 几十年的时间 才回到原点甚至达到收支平衡 So this really and and every time, where it proliferated was the areas where were the the secular leaders, and they topped, and it took years and years and decades, in many cases, for those stocks to come back and even get back the break even.
我说过很多次 在90年代 没有关键的领导人 它达到了顶峰 然后它就横着走了几十年 I pointed out ciscal many times, no key leader in the nineties, it topped, and then it just went sideways for for decades.
还有很多很多公司 微软 很多高质量的公司 And many, many names, microsofts, lots of quality names.
这可能就是我们在Netflix和亚马逊的处境 That's probably where we are in a Netflix, in an a Amazon.
其中一些名字 是的 你会从低点反弹 它们会是非常有说服力的反弹 但它们会变成拖延词 And some of those names, where, yes, you will get rallies off the low, and they'll be very convincing rallies, but they're going to turn into stall words.
它们会更像大盘股 呃呃 你知道的 S-P的名字 They're going to be more like big cap, uh uh, you know, S-P names.
而你要造就下一个亚马逊人的领导层 将来自其他地方 And the the leadership where you're going to get the next Amazons, are going to come from somewhere else.
可能是你不熟悉的中小股公司 你需要开始考虑这些公司 Probably small, midcap names, names that you're not familiar with, and you need to start entertaining those.
我们说的是一个 你知道的 小一点的新名字 Um, we're speaking of a name that's a, you know, a smaller new name.
我们想买进E-W-C-Z 你有一个很好的机会把它卖掉 We tried to put a buy on and E-W-C-Z, you had a good chance to trade out of a piece of it.
当它上升的时候 我这就是我所做的 And as it ran up, I that's what I did.
然后再持有一些 看看当天收盘价如何 或者整晚持有 And then and hold some to see how it closes for the day, or hold overnight.
但是 你知道 这恰好发生在市场的波动中 市场的压力太大了 But again, you know, this just came right in the volatil of the market, and the pressure of the market is just too much.
出价根本不存在 机构投资者目前对股票没有兴趣 The bids just aren't there. The institutions do not have an appetite for stocks right now.
你想要等到你有了尾巴的时候当你有大笔资金在你的方向购买的时候 And you want to wait until you have that tail when you have the big money buying in your direction.
现在 你在淡化大笔资金 Right now, you're fading the big money.
你是如果你现在在买 你看到散户在买 你和业余的人在一起 You're If you're buying right now, you see the retail uh, buying, uh, is coming in here you're with the amateurs.
专业人士在销售 他们利用反弹来卖出 而业余投资者则利用回调来买入 The pros are selling. They're using rallies to sell, and the amateurs are using pullbacks to buy.
但这行不通 这不是工作 And it's not working. It's not working.
嗯 让我们看看 总而言之 我们所有的模型都是负面的 Um, let's see here. So to summarize, all our models are negative.
我们现在干劲全开 我认为坏消息是 我们在这方面是消极的 你知道 没有什么可做的 除了保持我们的能量干燥 We're on all cylinders now. I think the bad news to that is that we're negative in that, you know, there's nothing to do except just stay, uh, keep our power dry.
好消息是 当情况变得非常糟糕的时候 你知道 非常糟糕的时候 我们有时你已经接近低谷了 或者你正在接近低谷 The good news is, when it gets so bad that it gets, you know, real bad, it's we sometimes you're near the low um or, or you're getting close.
所以我认为 你知道 如果这是一个周期性的调整 我们可能更接近低点 而不是顶部 但仍有工作要做 So I think that, you know, if this is a cyclical correction, we're probably getting closer to a low than we are to a top, but there still work to be done.
我们有太多的安排了 这对我来说真的是最重要的 We there's a death of setups, and that really, that's really all that matters to me.
股票设置 或者归根到底对我来说 这是支配磁带的分配 Stock setups, or what it all comes down to with me, there's distribution dominating the tape.
这是两件事 And those are the two things.
当指数有一个分布的时候 没有我40年来从未见过的设置 这将是一个很好的市场 以馅饼股票 When there's a distribution in the indexes, and there's no setups I've never seen ever in 40 years, it'd be a great market to pie stocks.
所以我们必须等待这些转变 So we've got to wait for those things to shift.
通货膨胀率和市场情绪是我关注的关键 如果从宏观经济角度来看 Inflation rates and sentiment are the keys that I'm watching, um, if you for macroeconomically,
但股票是我关注的时机 是为了对我的投资组合做出真正的决定 我是否要大量投资股票 but stocks are what I'm watching for timing and for really to make a decision on my portfolio, whether I'm getting heavily invest in stocks
和咄咄逼人 股票拥有最终决定权 and getting aggressive. The stocks have the final say.
现在 现金为王 只要保留大量的现金 但要非常非常警惕 准备采取行动 Right now. Cash is king. Just keep a lot of cash, but be very, very vigilant and prepared to act.
不要沾沾自喜 因为这种情况可能很快就会改变 And do not get complacent, because this could shift very quickly.
而且会很快的 And it'll be, it'll be fast.
然后大发雷霆 所以我们会睁大眼睛 继续关注 And be in furious. So we'll, we'll keep our eyes peeled here, keep tuned.
当然 我们刚刚推出了MonolertOne We, of course, we just launched the Monolert One point.
哦 beta版本 非常非常干净 Oh, beta version. It's very, very clean.
工作 太棒了 嗯 你会发现这是一个非常棒的工具 It's working, fantastic. Um. You know, you'll, you'll find that it's in a tremendous tool.
玩弄它 使用它 Play around with it, use it.
我们有很多正在开发的东西 我们会添加到它里面 And we've got a lot of developmental things in the pipeline that we're gonna be adding to it.
这只是个开始 It's gonna it's just a very beginning.
请提出您的意见 让我们知道你是如何享受它和如何使用它的 Give us your comments. Let us know how you're enjoying it and how you're using it.
也许我们会给我们一些关于你如何使用它的建议 我们可以互相分享 我们会接受那些评论 所以我们会从这里开始尝试改进它 Maybe we'll give us some tips on how you're using it, and we can share with each other, and we'll what, we'll take those comments, so we'll try to even improve it from here.
我将在周一1130进行问答 现在我不打算做一个股票视频 So I'll talk to you guys, of course, on Monday for the q and A at 1130, and I'm not going to do a stock video at this point.
所有股票都将押在拜勒身上 Any stocks will be put on Byler.
我们周一会讲到 我将有一个美好的周末休息 You'll see on Monday. And I'll have a good rest of the weekend.
对吧 再见 再见 Right? Bye. Bye.