嘿,早上好 hey good morning
欢迎来到密涅瓦尼 and welcome to the minervani
专用接入培训室 private access training room
鲍勃·韦斯曼，请帮我快速试音 bob weissman if you could do a quick sound check
让我知道你在听我说话 letting me know that you're hearing me okay
请举手 by raising your hand
我希望大家周末愉快 I hope everybody had a good weekend and
注意安全 stay safe and also
只是一个简短的提醒或便条 just a quick reminder or note rather
马克·里奇今天不参加我们的节目 mark ritchie is not joining us today
他是不可用的 he's unavailable
让我们把这个交给马克·米内维尼 so let's hand this off to mark minervini
再和马库斯一起快速检查一下声音 and also do a quick sound check with marcus
欢迎已经标记 welcome already mark
大家早上好 okay good morning everyone
我忘了 I forgot
我说过马克今天会来的 I did mention that mark was gonna be here today
但我忘了他是 but I forgot that he is
实际上是在做慈善活动 actually doing a charity event
他要去参加一个慈善活动 he's traveling to go to a charity event
他今天没来，但你会得到很好的照顾 so he's not here today but you are in good hands
确保大家都在我没事 let's make sure everyone's here I'm okay
我们从q amp a开始 and we'll get started here with some q amp a
只是很快 just real quick
就市场而言 as far as markets concerned
我们认为这 we see this
哈里伯顿当然只是玩玩番茄酱 haliburton of course just playing some ketchup
就像我周末说的那样 as I said over the weekend to oxy
这是意料之中的，这些石油的一些名称 this was to be expected that some of these oil names
随着这里的油量上升，我们将移到这里 with oil running up here we're going to move up here
当然，有些人比其他人更有延展性 of course some are more extended than others
据你所知我很关心这个 selling into this as far as you know I'm concerned
我现在只持有一些仓位 I only own a few positions at this point
我有一只狐狸 I own some fox
我有一些伯克希尔哈撒韦 I have some berkshire hathaway
我把它加到我的am ph中 and I actually add it to my am ph
就是我最近提到的那个 which that was one that I mentioned recently
不要把它作为一个官方职位 don't have as an official position
但这只是刚刚发生 but this has just been
所以我非常强壮 so I'm so amazingly strong
而市场一直疲软 while the market has been weak
所以我今天早上又加进去了 so I actually added to it this morning
但我正在考虑 but I'm looking to
如果这个在这里 if this runs up here
我可能会用一部分来交换 I might trade out of part of it
自己去推 and just push it myself
而且我还保留了一大笔钱 but again keeping a huge amount of cash I've been in
90%的人几乎一直都在兑换现金 90% cash pretty much the entire time
让我们看看生物菌列表非常小 let's see the biolert list is very small
我觉得质量太差了 I would say the quality is low
这是一个非常 and this is a very
现在进入这个市场非常困难 very difficult market right now to be involved in
所以除了石油 so with the exception of oil
也许在一些区域会有一些斧头停靠 and maybe some axe docks a few areas
它非常有选择性的 it's very selective
有很多名字都有 there's a lot of names that have
我说过的失败 have failed I talked about
一些名字建立在右边 some names that were building those right sides
像数据狗一样 like a data dog
这就是我们想要看到的 and this is what we wanted to see
向外看，看反方向 look out look at the opposite direction
你知道我多想知道发生了什么 you see how I wanted to see what's happening
是完全相反的方向吗 is going in the exact opposite direction so
你也可以看到这个主轴 and you can see also that that pivot
即使是那个没有建立起来的低作弊轴心 even that low cheat pivot that didn't build out
如果它跑到这里就没问题了 and that would have been okay if it ran up here
然后在这里建立一个枢轴 and then built a pivot there
本来可以的 would have been fine
只要我们能把右边造出来就行 just as long as we can build out that right side
但是你看到的是完全相反的情况 but you see completely opposite that's happening here
类似lyv something like an lyv
在这里爆发，你会得到自然的反应 broke out here pulled back you get a natural reaction
现在不那么自然了 not so natural now
这说明枢轴失效了 this is telling a pivot failure
这仍然可行 this could still work
这仍然可以建立一个基地 this could still build a base
但是你们知道，看到太多了 but you know just seeing too much of this mu
另一个是你在基地里，你在一个 another one where you're in a base here you're in a
在这里摆一个大的底座 pan out here in a large base
你看右边，它开始收紧了 you see this right side now it was starting to tighten
现在这里开始漏了 now it's starting to leak off here
你会得到我所说的枢轴泄漏 you getting what I call pivot leakage
正如我们所看到的那样 and as we're seeing that proliferate
那完全是相反的类型 that's the exact opposite of the type
我们想要看到的扩散 of the proliferation that we want to see
我们希望看到 we want to see a proliferation of
更多的设置和股票 more setups and stocks
从这些紧绷的右侧和其他地方突破 breaking out of these tight right sides and more
紧边发展 tight sides developing
我们没有看到 and we're not seeing that
所以你得考虑证据的分量 so you have to go with the weight of evidence and
顺应市场 bend with the market
你被拦在外面了 you're getting stopped out
你穿更短更小的衣服会被阻止 you're getting stopped out on shorter smaller
飞行员的位置，你就是不知道 pilot positions and you just don't
你知道你不会建造 you know you're not going to build
现在还没有进入大规模曝光 into aggressive exposure just yet
我们的手机信号还在 so we're still on that cell signal
别弄湿你的火药 stay keep your powder dry and just
继续等待,直到 keep waiting until
我们有更好的证据 we get some better evidence here
让我们 let's
得到 get
一些问题 some questions
詹姆斯先问的 james is asking first
标记你如何决定是否使用日低 mark how do you decide whether to use the day low
前几日低点 the previous days low
或者枢轴低 or the pivot low
或者甚至将周内低点作为技术止损点 or even the weekly low as your technical stop loss
这是你必须要做的决定 that's a decision that you have to make
基于你自己的风险回报 based on your own risk reward
需求，可能还有你的仓位大小 requirements and maybe your position sizing too
如果我持有大量头寸，而且我要超重很多 if I have a huge position and I'm going way overweight
那我就更有可能 well then I'm much more likely to
给它加个很紧的句号 put a very tight stop on it
我甚至可能会错开这些停顿说，好吧 and I might even stagger those stops and say okay well
我会在一天的低谷时减掉一些超重的体重 I'll take off some of my overweight at the day's low
在枢轴低点 at the pivot low
你知道我会减掉所有超重的 you know I'll take all my overweight off
然后是最大值 and then at the maximum
按百分比，我将把我的正常尺寸的位置 percentage I'll take off my regular size position
这真的是你的选择，但你知道你不是 it really is your choice you know you're not
没有一个神奇的数字 there's not a magic number
我们会说，嘿，这是车站 that we're all gonna say hey this is the stop
我们知道当我们看一个基底的时候我们看一下 we do know when we look at a base and we take a look at
轴心点 the pivot point
我们都知道主元在哪里 we all do know where the lower the pivot is
这是一个很明显的句号 so that's a pretty obvious stop right
当市场表现非常好时，明显的停止 when the market's doing really well obvious stops
他们认为你知道他们不知道 they hold you know they don't
他们不太容易突破这些水平 they don't breach those levels very easily
你可以用这些明显的数字 and you can use those obvious numbers
当你在一个拉锯战的市场或一个艰难的市场 when you're in a whipsaw market or a tough market
显而易见的数字会被剪掉很多 the obvious numbers you get clipped out a lot
所以你要多一点 so you have to be a little more
我应该说是有创意的 I should say creative
或者我喜欢做的事情是我喜欢的 or what I like to do is I like to either
在车站下面留出更多的空间 allow more room below that stop
这当然 which of course
这并不意味着超越你的数学数字 that doesn't mean go beyond your mathematical number
但或更少的空间 but or less room
如果有一个明显的水平 so if there's an obvious level
我要么想把它剪掉 I either want to cut it off
在它到达之前 way before it gets there
或者给它一些空间，让它削弱 or give it some room and allow it to undercut that
把人吓走，把我困在里面 and shake people out and keep me still in
股票所以 the stock so
这真的是你个人的选择 it really is your personal choice
基于你自己的风险 based on your own risk
但我现在表现不好的时候可以告诉你 but I could tell you right now when I'm not doing well
我的停站会更紧 my stops are going to be tighter
有时我只带一美元止损券进去 and sometimes I go in just with a dollar stop
你知道我不知道 you know I don't
我就进去打个招呼 I just go in and say hey
这是我愿意冒险的金额 this is the amount of dollars I want to risk
如果它把我弄晕了，它就把我弄晕了 if it knocks me out it knocks me out
我设定的终点是根据 and I set the stop based on
只要一美元 just a dollar amount
我在你的第一本书里问过 I was asking in your first book
你花了不少时间在每股收益上 you spent quite a bit of time on ernage per share
和p雷 and p ray
这说明你还在看这个 shows this is something that you're still looking at
在短期交易市场环境下 in the shorter term trading market environment
我不太关心短期交易 well the really short term trading I'm not as concerned
但我看我所有的工作 but I'm look all my work
甚至我的短线交易 even my short term trading
都来自相同的图表吗 are gonna come from the same charts
就像我要做的一样 and the same work as if I was going to
买一些长期的东西 buy something for the longer term
所以我还在看收益 so I'm still looking at the earnings
我看着这些 I'm looking at all that
本益比我不关心 the pe ratio I don't really care about
除了观察市盈率的膨胀 except I look at the expansion of the pe ratio
我知道市盈率，我是说如果是4倍的话 and I'm aware of the pe ratio I mean if it's a four pe
这说明了一些问题 well that tells me something
你知道股票是 you know that the stock is either
有什么不对劲，或者就像我说的 there's something wrong or it's like I said
某种形式的 some kind of
这个行业你可能知道这很正常 industry that maybe that's you know normal for
但市盈率远低于市场 but a pe that's way less than the market
你这是在警告我吗 is something that is more of a warning to me
比高于市场的私募股权投资更重要 than a pe that's above the market
所以现在如果是pe so now if it's the pe's you know
150，那我知道这意味着有一个非常棒的 150 then I know that that means there's a really great
期待，真的 anticipation there's there's really
展望未来收益 looking at the earnings forward
有很多的收入 there's a lot of earnings that are being
你知道的，烤在蛋糕里 you know baked into the cake
因此，令人失望的消息可能会损及该股 so a disappointment could could hurt the stock
所以如果你愿意的话，我只是意识到了这种情绪 so I'm just aware of that sentiment if you will
但是，看看他们的收入，销售额和利润率 but yeah looking at the earning sales and margins
和我上次一样 no differently than I have been for the last
你知道的，30年的长毛绒 you know 30 plush years
好吧 all right
迈克尔的问 michael's asking
当你交易大量头寸时 when you are trading massive positions
试图为较小的头寸承担风险 trying to finance risk for a smaller position
这不会影响你的风险回报比吗 doesn't this hurt your risk reward ratio
考虑到成本基数如此之大 given the cost basis is so big
举个例子，如果你有5%的停止，它上升1% for example if you have a 5% stop and it goes up 1%
我卖了80%的钱来支付我的停车费 and I sell 80% to fully finance my stop
另外，如果你立即亏损而不是盈利 also if you get a loss immediately instead of a profit
你会全部卖出还是继续持有 will you sell the whole position or still keeps up
如果没有黑白分明的答案 again if there's not a magic black and white answer
我知道你们总是 I know you guys are always
寻找黑白分明的答案，但是 looking for black and white answers but
如果你想要获得较小的收益 so if you're obviously for taking smaller gains
更大的头寸 on larger positions
收益平均收益会更小 the gain your average gain is gonna be smaller
绝对你知道 absolutely you know
如果你想调整位置大小 and if you want to adjust that for position sizing or
分别记录 keep separate records for
你知道你的增持头寸 you know your big overweight positions
你当然可以这么做 you can certainly do that
嗯，但是，是的 um but but yeah
但你知道，我，你知道，看着 but you know I'm you know look
我想要的是x个百分比 I'm looking at making an x percentage
休息一下，你知道的 uh on a break on a you know
在一致的基础上 on a consistent basis
所以不管我怎么做 so however I get to
如果我一天能赚2%那就是 you know if I can make 2% on a day that's a
那对我来说是美好的一天 that's a good day for me
你知道我这有点 you know I that's sort of
你知道我一天的目标是1%或2% you know my goal for a good day would be one or 2%
在我的整体投资组合中 on my overall portfolio
我如何到达那里 how I get there
你知道我将得到他们的短期交易 you know will I get their short term trading
我是否能到那儿 whether I get there
你知道，长期持有 you know holding longer term
这对我来说并不重要 doesn't really matter to me
无论如何，我都要努力做到这一点 I'm gonna try to get there however I have to get there
所以答案是肯定的 so the answer is yes it will hurt it
我卖掉所有的头寸 well I sell my whole position
我可能，我是说可能，这要看情况 I might I mean I might it depends
你知道事情不太顺利的是市场 it's the market you know things aren't going well
我逃跑的速度要快得多 I'm much quicker to cut and run
如果拍摄环境不好，如果我在水下 if the mark environment's difficult if I'm underwater
我更有可能把整个头寸都砍掉 I'm much more likely to cut the whole position out
如果我做得很好 if I'm doing really well
我更有可能给它更多的空间 I'm much more likely to give it more room
我通常也不会做出孤注一掷的决定 and I usually don't make an all or nothing decision too
我通常是循序渐进的 I usually am incrementally moving
我可能会卖一些，再多卖一点，然后如果 I might sell some and sell a little more and then if it
如果情况恶化，他们会多卖一点 if it worsens they sell a little bit more
所以你知道不是所有的决定都已经做出了 so you know not all the decisions are being made
你知道的，就是黑色和白色开或关绿色和红色 you know just black and white on or off green red
舒明在问关于股票的问题 schuming is asking about the stock r r c
r r
r c r c
你就是这个问题 and you're a question of this
不 not
但在周末或周末扫描 yet during or weekend scanned
2月27日下线 pulled from February 27
正在 was looking
假设股价突破24 assuming that the stock breaks out of the twenty four
28日的三十六分是他的圣经 thirty six high of every 28th is his bible
你怎么评价 how would you rate
与你列出的其他石油名称相比 rrc as compared to other oil names that you have listed
小时我的意思 h I mean
就在这里，这是你作弊的地方 really right here this is your cheat area that's where
你知道，我是说，我当时看到了这个 you know I mean I saw this back then
这是其中一支 this is one of the stocks that
但我不认为我们把它 but I don't think we put it
我不认为我们是被别人 I don't think we put this on by other
但这是一个出现并收紧的问题 but this was one that did come up and was tightening up
但这是 here but this is the
这是一个很好的欺骗区域 this is the nice cheat area
那你就有点短了 then you do get a little short little
如果你想叫它句柄 if you want to call that a handle
你是说28号那天 so you're talking about on the 28th which
我不知道你为什么要谈论20号 here I'm not sure why you're talking about the 20th
这是20号的回落 this the 20th is a pullback
是啊，杀了28日的高潮 yeah taking out the high of the 28th was
那是圣经吗 is that a bible
作为回调 as a pullback by
哦，是的，是的，是的，这是一个倒退 oh yeah yeah yeah it's a pullback by yeah
我的意思是你绝对可以 I mean you could definitely
知道你是否错过了这次越狱 know if you missed this breakout
或者你看到了这个突破 or you saw this breakout right
现在它又回来了 now it comes back
是的 yeah
这是对爆发的一点自然反应 this is a little natural reaction back to the breakout
你把它放进去 you put that in
反转现在你得到了绝对的回调 reversal now you get a pullback by absolutely
现在你完全可以在那里再买一次 now you could have certainly bought it there and again
你可以在这里买一些 you could be incremental maybe you bought some here
你知道，这里出现了逆转复苏 you know coming out here you got a reversal recovery
事实上，你甚至可能被骗了 actually you might even got suckered in
在20秒之后你就有了户外的一天 on the 20 seconds and then you had an outside day
你知道这就是 and again you know this is where
你不能这么快就惊慌失措 you can't really panic out too fast
即使在这样的户外天气 even on this outside day
那会让很多人晕过去的 that'll knock a lot of people out
但它甚至没有把主轴和下轴都去掉 but it didn't even take out the low and the pivot
我也不知道百分比 and I don't know percentage wise
让我们看看如果你买了它会是什么样子 let's see what that would have been if you bought it
从这里出来 coming out right here
在这里，大概是百分之七十八 down here yeah well about seven eight percent
这可能会让你晕过去 so that might have knocked you out
然后第二天又出现了繁荣 and then the very next day boom comes back
反转恢复 reversal recovery
也许你错过了，也许你被吓到了 maybe you missed that maybe you got shaken out
现在它回来了，你就有了下一个机会 now it pulls back you get that next opportunity
你也许可以从后面过来 and you can maybe come in here on that full back by
是的，我的意思是，我认为那会是 yeah I mean I think that would be
你知道的，绝对可以进入 you know acceptable entry absolutely
好吧 all right
它开始产生一些蒸汽 it is starting to pick up a little bit of steam
不好的一面是 on the downside here
这里是550 that was down 550 here
你可以看到下面的nastex and you can see the nastex down
以2%结束交易 closing it on 2%
我们看看这个 so again well we'll see if this
Low处于危险之中 low is in jeopardy
但这并不重要 but it doesn't really matter
我们是否能创造一个新的低潮之夜 whether we make a new lower night
我和一般的股票一样 I managed with the average stocks doing
而且波动性很大 and there's a lot of volatility
我们没有得到这个动作 and we didn't get the move
从右边的这个枢轴点出发 out of this pivot point on the right side
如果你看各种索引甚至是ivd50 if you look at the various indexes even the ivd 50
关键就在这里 and the key is that
还记得我们周末说的吗 remember how we said in the weekend
我们在分销方面占主导地位 we were distribution dominant
而且没有设置 and there's no setups
没有设置的分布优势是 distribution dominant with no setups is a
刺耳的红灯 blaring red light
只是让你们知道 just to let you guys know
你不需要知道市场的其他任何事情 you don't have to know anything else about the market
你在指数中积累优势吗 are you accumulation dominant in the indexes
有设置 and there's setups
或者你是分布主导 or are you distribution dominant in the
而且没有设置 and there's no setups
即使你是分销巨头 even if you were distribution dominant
至少这是一种安排 at least it would be setups
你有东西可以玩 you have something to play
如果他们在工作，你可以更进一步 and if they're working you can step it up
我们几乎没有设置 we have few setups
设置不工作 setups aren't working
从突破和你的分销主导 from breakouts and your distribution dominate
这里绝对是红灯 absolute red light here
Carlito在105次倒卖头皮交易后要求或分享 carlito is asking or sharing after 105 trades scalping
他再次测试了自己的数据 he back tested his numbers
发现如果 found out that if
与渐进式曝光相反 opposite of using progressive exposure
我一直在用 I had been using always
我每笔交易的投资组合规模 all my portfolio size in every trade
我回到了它原来的样子 I return to what it had been way better massive
那么问题来了 so here's this question
这对黄牛来说是明智的吗 is it advisable for a scalper
忽略渐进式敞口，进行上述交易 to ignore progressive exposure and trade the mentioned
他一有经验就去做事 way as soon as he is experienced
对市场环境有良好的认识 have a good sense of the market environment
追踪疾病爆发的一般反应 track in how breakouts generally are responding
显然已经准备好进行交易了 and obviously is ready to trade under
肾上腺素水平高 high levels of adrenaline
好吧，我明白你的意思 well yes I hear what you're saying
我认为你观察得很好 and I think you made a very good observation where
如果你真的 if you're really
如果你做短线交易，风险真的很大 if you're short term trading and the risk is really
真的很紧，你应该很有侵略性 really tight you should be very aggressive
你知道那些姿势 you know with those positions
即使是的 even though yes
你还是需要一些逐步的曝光 you're still gonna want some progressive exposure
以……的形式 in the in the form of
看，你有现金，你开始交易 look you're in cash you start trading
我不会只是 I would not just
现在就开始大量曝光全部曝光 start taking huge exposure overall exposure now now
但这并不意味着我不会持有很大的头寸 that doesn't mean I won't take a big position
我可能会持有一个巨大的头寸 I might take a big giant position
20550%的位置，但是停得很紧 20,550% position but I got a super tight stop on it
我将逐步揭露 and I'm gonna progressively expose by
你知道的，我不太了解自己 not getting myself you know really
高投资 highly invested
但如果你不承担隔夜风险 but again if you're not taking overnight risk
你消除 you eliminate that
这样你就可以更有侵略性了 so that now you can go more aggressive
如果你的止损非常紧 and if your stops are super tight
我认为我的观察很好，我看了看 yeah I think I think the observation is good and I look
累进暴露 a progressive exposure
大多数时候 most of the time
当人们说它不工作，但它工作得更好 when people say it's not working but it worked better
是因为他们没有正确地使用它吗 is that they're not really using it properly
以一种服务他们的方式，他们迟到了 in a manner that serves them and they're late
你知道 you know
他们要么行动晚了，要么没有 they're stepping it up late or they're just not
你知道执行 you know executing
高效的增量步骤 the incremental steps efficiently
所以你知道我会看一看 so you know I would take a look and see
你是如何逐步暴露的 how you're progressively exposing
暴露，然后看看有没有更好的办法 exposing and then see if there's a better way
也许你能做到 maybe that you can do that
但你做到了 but you got it
但还是要小心，这不是直接跳进来的 still got to be careful it's not just jumping in
你知道的，得到自己 you know and getting yourself
高度暴露 you know highly exposed
当你一无所有的时候 when you've got nothing but downside
你没有靠垫 and you got no cushion
但我认为你是对的 but I think you're yes you're right
在短期内 as you get to the shorter term
时间和止损都非常紧 time frame and the stops are super tight
你不会冒一夜之间的风险 and you're not taking overnight risk it's
如果你愿意，你可以不那么进步 you can be less progressive if you will
缺少一个更好的词 the lack of a better term
和 and
迈克尔的问 michael's asking
我一直在研究mtp工作簿 I've been studying the mtp workbook and
书中的图表 charts in your book
同时把最优方案可视化 and also visualizing the optimal scenario
我希望在每个设置中看到的 that I would like to see in each setup
但是当我看股票的时候 but when I look at stocks
它并不总是能找到完美的VCP it doesn't always trace out a perfect vcp
然后我有一点颤抖绑住它 and then I have a little more tremble bind it
我该怎么解决这个问题呢 how how can I work through this
我们的出现和你的模型书是一回事 our presence and your model books the same thing
你们不应该买没有地图的 people you shouldn't be buying ones that don't map
你是说你买不了吗 you saying you're having trouble buying it
你应该很难买到 you should have trouble buying it
如果设置不正确，你就不应该买它 if it's not set up properly you should not be buying it
也就是说一切都很完美 so that says that everything's working perfect
这只股票会告诉你什么时候买 this stock should be telling you when to buy
我的意思是 so I mean
我听到的是 what I'm hearing is
你想在什么时候买股票 you want to buy stocks when
你没有准备股票 you don't have stocks setting up
这就是你要处理掉的 well that's what you got to get rid of is that
害怕错过，想要行动 fear of missing out and wanting action
所以我不会买股票 so I'm not going to buy stocks
这让股票 that let stocks actually
符合标准并正确设置 meet the criteria and set up properly
我的意思是 you know I mean
发生的是 and what happens is
你在一个市场 you get in a market where
很多股票都上涨了 a whole bunch of stocks take off
市场从道指起落，再创新高 the market takes off the dows making new highs
所有东西都在没有轴的情况下垂直爆炸 everything's blasting off upright sides with no pivots
你会说哦 that you say oh
你知道你抛弃了你的规则 you know you throw your rules away
现在你开始买没有支点的股票 and now you start buying stocks with no pivots
在你惹上麻烦之前 and before you get yourself in trouble
或者你会得到奖励 or you get rewarded
可能发生的最糟糕的事情是什么 which is the worst thing that can happen
你会养成坏习惯，最终 and you create bad habits and eventually it
造成了一个更大的问题 creates even a much bigger problem
遵守规则 stick to the rules
忘掉索引吧 you know forget about the indexes
忘掉发生的一切忘掉错过的一切 forget about what's happening about missing out
等待股票达到合理的标准 and wait for the stocks to meet the sound criteria
只有从 and only trade from
你知道，不要强迫交易 you know don't force trades
这就是为什么我们有这些 that's why we have those
那些规则，我有那些口号 those rules and and I have those slogans
没有信息恐惧症就不会强迫交易 no fomo don't force trades
现在让我们面对那些人，如果你没有如果你没有 now let's face the guys if you don't have if you don't
没有什么规则可言 there's no sense of having rules
如果你不坚持的话 if you're not going to stick to them
这是底线 that's the bottom line
通过制定规则 and by having rules
你会有一些时间 you're going to have times where things
股票涨跌的情况发生在哪里 move stocks moves scenarios happen where
你的规则是要么不参与，要么 your rules are going to either not participate or
他们会生产 they're going to produce
结果不是很好 results that aren't that great
而另一些东西产生了好的结果 while something else is producing good results
但是你不能只是保持 but again you're not going to be able to just keep
转换和追逐一切可行的东西 switching and chasing whatever's working
desure desure
一年中某一天或某一个月的式样 the style of the day or the month of the year
关键是要真正擅长一种风格 the key is is to get really great at one style
坚持下去 stick with it
就像我之前说的，如果你不愿意允许 and like I said before if you're not willing to allow
你的风格是休息，而其他风格做得很好 your style to take a break while other styles do well
而你却不愿意袖手旁观 and you're not willing to sit back and go through
然后等着轮到你 that and wait your turn
你没有策略 you don't have a strategy
你上瘾了 you have an addiction
你对交易上瘾，你只是想交易 you have an addiction to trading you just want to trade
制定策略就是要坚持下去 the whole idea having a strategy is to stick to it
你必须有遵守规则的自律性 you have to have the discipline to stick to the rules
我要告诉大家的是，当我这么做的时候 one quick thing I'll share with that is when I do
看到一些新的成员加入进来 see some newer members coming on board
这是问 that are asking
或者提到他们没看到装置 or mention they're not seeing the setup
他们没有看到商标张贴的商标 they're not seeing the trade that mark is posting
答案是否定的吗 should I be bind it the answer is no
如果你不懂交易 if you don't understand the trade
你不应该被束缚 you should not be bind it
但你应该从中吸取教训 but you should be learning from it
这就是你们在这里要做的就是学习 and that's what you are here to do is to learn
每一条交易建议 with every one of the trade recommendations
尼哈特要求 nihat is asking
他的平均损失是4.3% his average loss is 4.3%
击球率只有 with the batting average of only
25% 25 %
所以他的收益并不能弥补他所有的损失 so his gains are not paying for all of his losses
我们的目标是成为二比一的交易者 with the goal of trying to become a two to one trader
你会跳过交易吗 would you skip trades
哪里的技术止损更大 where the technical stop is greater
比他的平均损失4.3 than his average loss of 4.3
或者你只是使用一个平缓的技术停顿 or would you just use a flat technical stop
他所有交易的止损点都是4.3 rather a mathematical stop of 4.3 on all of his trades
这些方法好吗?还有其他建议吗 are those good approaches any other suggestions
集中精力改进他的击球网 to focus on to improve his batting network
首先很好 well first well
你不能提高你的击球率 you can't improve your batting averages
作为市场的商业功能 as business function of the market
你知道，你显然是你的选择 and you know and you're obviously your selection
但 but
你知道你做的事是否正确 you know if you're doing the right things
如果你购买的股票基础良好 if you're buying stocks from sound bases
你在遵守规则 and you're sticking to the rules
你买股票是正确的 and you're buying stocks right
你有25%的平均击球率 and you have a 25% batting average bull
这很简单地告诉你，市场糟透了 that tells you very simply that the market sucks
就是这么简单 it's that simple
这是很好的信息 and that's great information
意思是后退 and that means to back off
但是我 but the thing that I'm
我不明白你说的是4.3 not understanding here is you said a 4.3
平均损失鲍勃 average loss bob
是的 yes
好,你 okay so you're
你问 you're asking
如果你的法律依据是平均损失 if you should base your laws on the average loss when
法律依据的是你的平均收益 the laws is based on your average gain
所以我不明白你不是 so I don't understand you're not
你没有告诉我平均收益 you're not telling me your average gain
平均收益是多少 what's the average gain
这是一个重要的数字 that's the important number
这就是损失 that's what the loss
损失是预期收益的函数 the losses are a function of expected gain
损失不是损失的函数 losses are not a function of losses
所以你需要比较平均损失 so your average loss has to be compared
如果你想保持二比一 if you want to maintain a two to one
然后我们看一下平均收益 well then we have to look at your average gain
所以如果你的平均收益是6%，那么4.3就不是 so if your average gain is 6%well then 4.3 is not
不是右二比一，而是3% wouldn't be two to one right you'd have to be at 3%
这就是 so that's the
要移动的滑块是 slider that's got to move is
你的损失和你的平均收益 your loss versus where your average gain
如果你的平均收益是2% now if your average gain is 2%
你是摇摆式交易 and you're swing trading
那你就有另一个问题了 well then you have another problem
你知道你有"可能"的问题 you know you have a problem with maybe
持有股票并让它们开花结果 holding stocks and letting them come to fruition
但市场很糟糕，什么都没起作用 but the market's horrible and nothing's working
你也不会说好的 and you're not gonna go and say okay
我要把损失减少到1% well I'm gonna cut my loss to 1%
那时候你就得远离市场了 at that point you're gonna be stay out of the market
25%的击球率和3%的平均增益 25% batting average and average gain a 3%
意思是某事大错特错 means to something drastically wrong
现在你要回头看看你的交易 so now you have to go back look at your trading are you
正确的购买是从声音中购买 buying correctly are you buying from sound
通过低风险进入进行整合 consolidations through low risk entries
通过枢轴点 through pivot points
右侧站位稳固 with well established right sides
如果这是真的 if that's true
你有25%的成功率和你的 and you've got a 25 % batting average and your
平均收益低于平均损失 average gain is lower than your average loss
市场很糟糕 then the market's horrible
这给了你非常有价值的信息 and that's giving you very valuable information
现在如果市场很好 now if the market's great and
各地的股票都在上涨 stocks are breaking out of bases all over the place
工作，你得到了这些数字 and working and you've got those numbers
那它就会很快把范围缩小到 well then it's going to narrow it down very quickly to
你没有持有收益 you're not holding the gains
你没有让收获结出果实 you're not allowing the gains to come to fruition
你可能卖得很快 you're probably selling them quickly
你在一些小的撤退中被阻止了 you're getting stopped out on little pullbacks
自然反应，你卖得太快了 natural reactions you're selling too quick at a profit
或者你是小赚大赔 or you're taking small gains and larger losses
所有这些都会改变 so all that will will
自动地，自然地 well automatically will naturally
把你的注意力集中在 focus you on the areas that
通过这些数字 by looking at those numbers
我自动 I automatically
知道别人的交易发生了什么 know what's going on with somebody's trading
或者我可以把范围缩小到 or I can narrow it down to a
要找的东西的数量 number of things that to look for
这将是几件事之一 and it's going to be one of a couple things
这就是关键所在 so that that's the key here
平均收益是这里的主要数字 so what's your average gain is the main number there
看看nt r looking at nt r
Amid是一家新公司 amid is a new
名字在这里被去掉了 name's taken off here
坚持到底 following through on that
你知道我们已经用了一两个星期了 you know we've had it on biler of course a week or two
以前，你可以看到这些名字现在被扩展了 ago and you see these names are getting extended now
很多这样的名字 a lot of these names
所以哈米德对交易和我们都是新手 so hamid is new to trading and new to us
欢迎登上哈米德 so welcome aboard hamid
他想直接问 and he wants to just ask
他在突破时以80.3美元的价格买入 he bought this at $80.3 at the breakout
半价八千七百六十，只卖了百分之十 sold half at eighty seven sixty for just about 10%
并询问如何管理剩下的职位 and asking how to manage the remainder of the position
好了 well again
这是你的 this is your
你可以选择要不要下大招 choice if you want to play it for a bigger move or not
我的意思是，这只股票现在已经很长了 I mean this stock is very extended at this point
就我个人而言，我会买这个 me personally I'd sell right into this
你知道 you know
但是我不介意它从这里翻倍 but and I wouldn't care if it doubles from here
但这取决于你是否愿意 but that's up to you whether you want
我的意思是你已经把自己打造成了新人 I mean you've cushed in yourself
现在你获利了 now you've taken some profit
如果你把止损点移动到收支平衡 and if you move your stop to break even
你要保证自己有利润 you're going to guarantee yourself a profit
如果你停止融资 if you finance to stop
你要保证自己收支平衡 you're going to guarantee yourself a break even
所以这是一个双赢的局面，你不会输 so you're in a win win situation you can't lose
所以现在是你自己的事了 so now it's a matter of your own
情绪你自己的目标 emotions your own goals
如果你让这一切发生，你会不高兴吗 are you gonna be upset if you let this come all the way
回来阻止你收支平衡 back and stop you out at break even
说我应该我应该把它卖掉 and say I should have I should have sold it
还是你会对自己说，好吧 or are you gonna say to yourself okay
我赌的是大招 I'm playing for a bigger move
我接受这个风险 I accept that risk
但我觉得它会升到200 but I think this thing's gonna go to 200
我不是这么做的 that that's not how I do it
当股票被扩展时 when a stock is extended
我认为这是不利的 and I think the downside
比眼前的好处更重要 outweighs the immediate upside
我卖了它，拿回我的利润 I sell it and I take my profit
我试着再把它翻过来 and I try to roll it over again
这大约是27到3分之1 this is about a 27 to 3rd about
大约30%的人会动，我不知道 about 30% move and I don't know
在这里待九天什么的 nine days here or whatever it is
你知道，这是一个很好的谎言 that's a pretty good rip you know
如果这是新一轮牛市的开始 if this is the start of a new bull market
也许这是一只成长型股票 and maybe this is a growth stock or something
在医学领域 in the medical field
这比自然更世俗 that's more secular than nature
我可能会试着拿一些 I probably try to hold some
但你可以做的另一件事是 but another thing you can do is I
一般卖几次半 usually sell half a couple times
我卖一半 and I'll sell half
然后如果我有一个像这样的大游戏 and then if I get a really big game like this
在很短的时间内，我又卖了一半 in a short period of time I sell another half
现在我只剩25%的位置了 now I have 25% of the position left
然后你要停止收支平衡 and then you move to stop the break even and
设好了就忘了 set it and forget it
你可以将50日收盘价低于50日 that's you could use the 50 day a close below to 50 day
如果你愿意，你甚至可以用10天 you could even use it 10 day if you want to
如果你想牢牢抓住它，用它的话 if you want to stay real tight on it and use it
收于10日以下 close below the 10 day
你知道很多事情，但这真的是你的选择 you know number of things but it really is your choice
你的风格是什么 what is your style
你的风格是什么你的目标是什么 what is your style what is your what are your goals
你想怎么去你想怎么去你的 how do you want to get how do you want to get to your
对于你的目标，你想如何达到你的结果 to your goal how do you want to get to your outcome
想要在短期内达到目标 want to get there through short term
交易量很大 trading a lot of turnover
你知道 you know
这就需要你去定义 it really comes down to you know you have to define
你的操作 your operation
以及你要如何操作 and how you're going to operate
克里斯在问他哪里有 chris is asking where he has a
仓位不多，但错过了止损点 small position but missed his stop loss
现在他在交易中跌了20% and now he's down 20% on the trade
你是这种情况吗 do you in this situation
我都不知道那是什么意思 I'm not sure what that even means
把它卖了，然后忘掉它，还是留着它 sell it and just forget about it or do you keep it
在这个问题 in this question
首先是什么股票 what's the stock first of all
你没有分享股票，但是 you didn't share the stock but
好吧，你不该错过止损 okay well you shouldn't have missed your stop loss
所以你现在不会再给我建议了 so you're not gonna get advice for me now as
现在该怎么办 what to do with it now
因为你应该已经卖了 because you should have already sold
所以我不知道你怎么会错过止损 so I don't know how you missed your stop loss
你是说你，你是说你 you mean you you mean you
你没有遵守纪律 you didn't stick to your discipline
这就是你的意思 that's what you mean okay
或者它从中间穿过 or it gaps through it
你知道如果我停车的时候车漏了 you know if it gaps through my stop
我以次优价格卖给它 I sell it the next best price
你知道 you know that
没有 there's no
如果你不想坚持下去，停下来是有意义的 sense in having a stop if you're not gonna stick to it
这就是你所面临的情况 and this is the situation you get in
然后人们对我说 and then people say to me
哦，顺便说一下，你知道我已经跌了50%了 oh by the way you know I'm down 50%
我现在该怎么办 what do I do now
我不知道你现在在做什么 I don't know what you do now
我不会陷入那种境地，永远不会 I wouldn't be in that position never
在任何情况下 ever under any circumstance
你要做的就是从中吸取教训 what you do is you learn a lesson from it
卖了它，别再犯同样的错误 sell it and don't make that mistake ever again
这就是你要做的 that's what you do
是的，在船上被标记成分段 yeah in the boat gets marked a sectional
这是复合或金钱，不是你的损失，所以 that is compound or money not your losses so
我可能不会犯错 I'm probably not mistakes yeah
汤姆问的这个问题有点宽泛，但是 tom is asking which is a little general here but
汤姆也许能给你点提示 tom maybe can throw some ticker symbols out there
煤炭库存是否已经波动太大了 would have coal stocks already moved too much
要建立可能 to be setting up possible
权力的地方 a power place
你得让我看看你的股票 um you'd have to show me the stock
对那些 yeah those
整个股票 whole stocks
我不知道你说的是什么股票 I don't know what stock you're talking about
arch是我们有过的 you know arch is one that you know we had
显然我卖得太早了 and I have obviously sold it too soon
但是你知道的，它是在一个很好的外国基地生产出来的 but you know came out of a pretty well foreign base
这个没有上升 this has not moved up
我不知道，让我们看看 I don't know let's see
我们要等几个月 we're looking at a couple months here
这还不足以成为一场权力游戏，所以我不会 this is not enough to be a power play yet so I wouldn't
没有一个拱门，但我没有 arches not one of them but look I don't
我不这么看 I don't look at it that way
我只看它是否符合条件 I'll just look at it as is it meet the criteria
它符合标准吗 is it meeting the criteria
现在如果你想说他们是如何升得太高的 now if you want to say how they moved up too much
不要成为权力的玩家 do not be power players
你要看看历史，看看这是不是 you gotta look at the history and see is this a
一个新动作的开始 the start of a new move
或者你升到五楼 or have you going up and you're on five
垒和这个东西构成了一个 bases and the thing made a
2000%的招式，现在是耗尽战术 2000% move and now it's an exhaustion play
最主要的是是否 that the main thing is whether
你要看，要试着看 you got to look and try to
确定它是否是一个分离 ascertain if it's a breakaway
移动或者是精疲力竭的移动 move or it's an exhaustion move
双倍的钱，你会得到这个 on that double that you would be having that
权力游戏的必要条件 requisite of a power play
这里有个拱门 looking at something like an arch here
或者煤炭工业 or the coal industry
你知道，我认为这更像是一种分裂行为 you know I would say this is more of a breakaway move
比一个疲惫 than an exhaustion
但这是一个周期性的群体 but this is a cyclical group
所以你要记住这一点 too so you know you have to keep that in mind
Rashan正在询问sd rashan is asking on sd
他在25号买的 that he bought on the 25
这是所有 which was all
抱歉，这很简单 sorry which is as simple
sdsd sdsd
三明治 sandwich
另一个能量的名字来自一个很好的 another energy name that came out of a nice
作弊的区域 cheat area here
所以他在完美25号买的 so he bought it on the 25th perfect
买的时候只有飞行员尺寸的四分之一 bought it with just a quarter pilot size position
只有他正常仓位的四分之一不是 just quarter of his normal position size ain't
他在问我现在是否合适 he's asking if this would be a good time to
把它调到全尺寸位置 bump it up to a full size position
我不会 I wouldn't
我的意思是，这是我今天就会卖掉的时机 I mean this would be a time I would have sold today
你知道的，但在这里的力量 you know but into this strength here
我的意思是你在谈论你今天有什么事 I mean you're talking about what are you up now today
今天你的支持率是百分之三十一 today you're up thirty one percent in one
二百三十四 two three four
5、6或7天 five and six or seven days
你对此并不满意 and you're not happy with that
我的意思是，如果你做的是摇摆式交易 I mean again you know if you're swing trading that's
这是，这是一个巨大的举动 that's a that's a huge move
所以 so
只有这样我才能玩这个游戏 the only way that I would be playing this
我会把它卖了 I'd be selling it
变成力量 into the strength probably
周五和今天 Friday and today
在这些大的更新中扩展它 be scaling out of it on these big updates
并从那里 and from there
如果我不全卖，我会卖一部分 if I didn't sell it all I would sell a portion
那么我就会把我的止损点移到收支平衡 then I would move my stop to break even
然后从那时起我就会停止它并做出决定 and then from there I would back stop it and decide
我想要的百分比游戏 on a percentage game that I wanted to
存进银行 keep in the bank
把后面的挡板放在这里 and put my back stop there
然后在上面自由滚动 and then free roll it above there
但这里要补充一点 but to add to it here
绝对不是 absolutely not
我是说，从这里可以翻倍 I mean and it could double from here
但它也很容易进入 but it could also come in very easily
百分之一千零一十五 ten fifteen percent
我就会被拦在外面 and I would be stopped out
因为我不会允许的 because I'm not gonna ever allow it
损失那么大 a loss to get that big
这就是自然拉回的问题 so that's the problem on a natural pull back
如果你看着股票，你会说 if you look at the stock and you say
这支股票可能会下跌 well this stock could be down
你知道的，15%仍然没有做错什么 you know 15% and still not do really anything wrong
知道了就会有很多麻烦 know and get it and get into a whole lot of trouble
技术好 technically well
如果股票表现正常的话 then if the stock will be acting normal
你会被打晕的 and you're gonna get knocked out
所以我不会让自己陷入那种境地 so I'm not gonna put myself in that position
很久很久以前 a long long time or long ago
成员史蒂夫，他最近刚刚回来 member steve who has just recently come back on board
HBM看起来也像VCP as does hbm look like a vcp
这将是 that would be
乙肝不是男孩 hb isn't boy
对，我是玛丽 right m is a mary mm hmm
让我们在这里看到的 let's see here
是的，我的意思是你有一个很大的基础 yeah I mean you got a big base forming here
你可以看到右边这个 and this right side here you can see
看看所有的反转 look at all the reversals
看 look
反转反转反转反转反转反转反转反转反转反转 reversal reversal reversal reversal reversal reversal
在这里蹲下所有的反转 squat all these reversals right here
现在如果你在这里画一条线 so now if you draw a line across here whoops there
让我们看看 let's see
我们遇到了发展中的枢轴点 we come across that pivot point that's developing
你可以看到几乎所有的供应都在那个水平 you can see almost all the supplies at that level
这个小小的交易只持续了一周 and this little bit of trading for just a week
只是短暂地高于那个水平吗 was above that level just briefly
而且还回来了不少 and it's back quite a bit
这都是一年前的事了 it's back all the way a year ago
所以供应可能会消失 so that supplies probably gone
在这一层以上 so getting above this level
这就消除了所有的供应 really eliminates all the supply
所以你想看到它在这里收紧 so you want to see it tighten up right here
大约有850 around that 850
然后突破850度 and then break out above the 850
我会留意的 I'll keep an eye on this
让我看看，我想把它提出来 let me just see I want to bring it up
这里还有一个屏幕 we have another screen here
HDM查看马库斯方法rs 93 hdm looking at the marcus methods rs 93
这是一个价格较低的名字 it's a lower price name
所以质量肯定更差 so it's definitely lower quality
对未来收益的预测很大 big estimate earnings estimates going forward you know
黄金也有 and again that the gold has
一直往上走，可能会停在这里 been moving up and might pull it up here
所以我觉得这很好，你知道我要 so I think it's good when the watch you know I'm gonna
我会盯着这个的 I'm gonna keep an eye on this
很多次都是这样 this a lot of times
你知道当我把一个低价格的股票 you know when I put a low price stock on
通常都是这样的 it's usually like this
有人告诉我，然后我就看 somebody tells me about it and then I watch it
我可能你知道我可能会弹 and I might you know I might play it
但我不会筛选低价股票 but I don't screen for the low price stocks
这就是为什么你很少见到他们的原因 that's why you very seldom see them
但偶尔你也会看到我持有低价股票 but occasionally you do see me have a low price stock
通常是这样的 it usually happens like this
马克·里奇或者其他人会的 mark richie or somebody will
提醒我一个，然后我就开始看 alert me up one and then I start watching it
但我不会筛选那些有风险的股票 but I'm not screening for those stocks that are
通常是8美元 you know usually $8
汤姆被要求提供抗生素 tom was ask providing amr
作为他被问到的名字之一 as one of the names that he was asked if it's a
没有parapleg是的 no parapleg yeah
让我看看amr so let me take a look at amr
我认为amr I think amr
当你看amr时，我们每周看一次 when you take a look at amr let's look at it weekly
这是精疲力竭的表现 this is more of an exhaustion move
我是说如果它在这里 you know I mean if it was over here
这是一种浪费，你知道，但我不知道 this has come quite a waste you know but I don't know
我想是1000% like I think 1000%
我觉得这是精疲力竭的表现 I think this is more of an exhaustion move
但是如果在这里设置 however if this were to set up here
好的，让我们看看 all right and let's see
最近是哪一种上涨 which is to go up recently
上涨了100% so it's going up 100%
因为这个突破 since this breakout
这里有个小骗子 right here you got this little load cheat right here
在右边 on the right side
超过了100% it's going up over 100%
如果这是一场权力游戏的话 if it were to set up a power play
我可能会玩 I would probably play it
如果这支球队真的很团结，很好，很强大 if it was really tight and nice and a strong group
你知道 and you know
我玩游戏时的环境 the type of environment when I would play it you know
我可能会用它来交换 and I might just play it for a trade though
我知道这是我最后的阶段 and I knowing that it's later stage I would
试着以尽可能低的风险进入 go in and try to go in with the lowest risk possible
我试着去那里，也许只有几个% I try to go in there with maybe just a couple %
风险和时间都很紧 risk and really time it super tight
这就是我的看法 so that's how I would look at that
但这看起来更像是后期或宽松的阶段，而不是中期 but this looks more of a later or loose than mid stage
疲惫移动 exhaustion move
但是你知道的 but then again you know
我是在它形成两个之后买的电击枪 I bought taser after it formed two
权力游戏设置 power play setups
在2000年中期，上涨了12倍 in mid 2000 and it was up 12 folds
你知道我买的时候它涨了 you know when I bought it and then it went up
你知道 you know
从那以后又上升了几个100% and it went up another several 100% from there
她要进来 she is asking in
关于位置大小 regarding position sizing
你会从你的角度去做吗 would you do it from the perspective of your
权益总风险 total risk of equity
就像 like
你总资产的1% 1% of your total equity
然后决定要买多少股 and then decide how many shares to buy
还有她 and she by the way
如果你还没有 if you haven't
已经访问过平台的分析标签 already visited the analytics tab of the platform
我们有计算器 we do have the calculators there that allow you
计算你的仓位大小 to calculate your position sizing
与 with the
风险的百分比或者股份的数量 either percentage of risk or the number of shares
美元风险计算 dollar risk to calculate
你应该买多少股 the number of shares that you should be buying
对，但是他在问 right but he's asking
后 after having
观看仓位尺寸教程 watched the position sizing tutorial
他不清楚你 he wasn't clear on how you're
确定头寸大小 determining your position sizing
所以这可能会导致 so that might play right into
你有一个新的教程标记 a new tutorial mark that you have
提到的看 mentioned looking at
是的，我要这么做 yeah I'm going to do that
我将在接下来的几天里努力做到这一点 I'm going to try to do that in the next couple of days
一个关于位置大小的教程 a tutorial on position sizing
所以你的头寸大小是 so your position sizing yes
首先应该是基础的吗 should be basic first of all
是的，你不能反过来做 yeah you can't do it the other way around
你必须弄清楚你的风险，然后你回到 you have to figure out your risk and then you back into
该风险的股份 the shares for that risk
所以你应该 so you should be
你应该调整头寸大小 you should be position sizing
根据你在总股本中的百分比 based on your percentage of total equity
然后你就可以 and then from there you can
弄清楚你的位置 figure out your position
大小和你的站等等 size and your stop and so forth
它们都是一起的 they all sort of go together
如果你动了其中一个 and if you move one of them
你知道它会影响到另一个 you know it's going to affect the other
很简单，如果你是 so very simply if you are
停止10% taking a 10% stop
25%的股份占总股本的2.5% on a 25 % position that's 2.5% of total equity
所以 so
2.5%是非常激进的 2.5% is very aggressive
所以我推荐1.25% so 1.25% which I would recommend
这是你的平均水平 that's where you kind of fall on average
是5%吗 would be a 5% stop
这就是计算的方法 so that's how you're going to calculate that
我以为你已经说得很清楚了，但是 thought that made that pretty clear in there but
再次在我的 again on my
在我的第二本书中，像冠军一样思考和交易 in my 2nd book and think and trade like a champion
有一个有一个头寸大小 there's a there's a position sizing
Section实际上有一章 section there's a chapter actually
而且解释得很深入 and it's explained pretty in depth
我不知道你有没有去见主人 and I don't know if you came to the master
贸易商计划 trader program
但是我们做了一个很好的解释 but we do a pretty good job there of explaining it
但我要试着讲一讲 but I'm going to try to go over that
这几周我一直在保证 and I've been promising that for a couple weeks
但我再次保证 but I'm promising it once again
我想这一次我能遵守诺言 and I think this time I'm able to keep the promise
本周 this week
兰斯问你能不能和我一起 lance is asking if you can share
今天把它加到胆汁上 on hs added to biler today
什么什么叫你加它，还有什么 what what it is that calls you to add it and what
你需要看它为你做吗 do you needed to see it do for you to make
让它变得可行 for it to become viable
海关 hs
正确的 right
它会标记它已经是圣经了 it will ags it was already bible
你知道我们已经买了 you know we already bought it
所以爆发了 so it broke out
这是我唯一在看的东西 the only thing I was looking at here
它被拉回进化者那里了吗 is it pulled back to the breakout
你的测试有点成功 you got a little successful test
这将开始尝试 that would start trying to
按捺:在一种自然的反应中坚持住 to hold up in a natural reaction
看到石油很强大 and seeing that oil strong
很多石油股都在上涨 a lot of these oil stocks are taking off
我以为你知道也许这个你知道你可以 I thought you know maybe this one you know you can
你可以买什么就买什么 you can buy it as it as it takes
当它从自然反应中回升 as it moves back up from that natural reaction
的突破 to the breakout
然而，我根本不喜欢今天的行动 however I don't like the action today at all
随着油价上涨，这些石油股票也上涨 with oil strong and these oil stocks strong
我已经把它看成 I already look at this as
一个落伍者，因为我告诉过你 a laggard because I told you
你知道很多股票都在上涨 you know a lot of these stocks are just breaking out
这些是落伍者，我们可以试着和他们比赛 these are the laggers and we can try to play them
但它们可能不会那么强壮 but they're probably not gonna be as strong
作为真正的领导者 as the true leaders
羟考酮就是一个很好的例子 and perfect example is oxy
见奥施康定 see oxy had already
从作弊区偷来的 taken off from that cheat area
一直在进步，保持着最好的状态 and has been moving up and holding up the best
看看你跑得多好 and look at you get this nice run here
然后你就被吹走了 and you get the little blow off
你可以直接卖给 that you can sell right into um
所以 so again
你知道这些都是落伍者，试着去打他们 you know these are laggards try try to play them
但 but
这就是我对ats的解释 that's my reasoning behind the ats is just a pull back
的突破 to the breakout
这是第一个自然反应 and now that first natural reaction
没有延伸太多 not extended too much from
这个大基地 that larger base
但我对今天的行动一点也不满意 but again I'm not happy with the action today at all
在这里 here
詹姆斯也是新成员 james new member as well
所以欢迎 so welcome
詹姆斯，你需要考虑多少条杠 james how many bars do you require to consider
在小范围内 in a small base
在股票从先前的基础上扩展之后 after stock is extended from the prior base
我不知道那是什么意思 I'm not sure what that means
我需要多少个酒吧在一个小基地 how many bars do I require in a small base
所以底的长度是多少 so how long do I require a base to be
我不知道小是什么意思 I don't know what small means
我不知道“小”的定义是什么 you know I don't know what the definition of small is
但 but
一般来说，你会想要 you know generally speaking you're going to want
你知道底数是多少 you know a base is going to be
最短的基数，但不是一个强大的玩家 the shortest base without being a power player
是四个吗 is going to be four
平均5周 five weeks on average
胡安最少要七周八周 juan to be a minimum of seven eight weeks and
你可能知道12 13到26周 probably you know 12 13 weeks to as much as 26 weeks
较长的会是52到65周 and the longer ones will be 52 to 65 weeks
所以它在两者之间 so it's anywhere between
三周之内 three weeks you know or less in a
在一场权力游戏中，或者在六周以内的权力游戏中 in a power play or six weeks or less in a power play
在一个巨大的基地待上65周 up to 65 weeks in a big giant base
但这也会 but that's really going to be also
由市场决定 determined by the market
你知道，如果市场出现大的调整 you know if you get a big correction in the market
你会变大的 you're going to get large
你会得到更深入的基础 you're going to get deeper bases
会得到更大的底数 you're going to get larger bases
如果你在 if you're in a
你知道，在牛市中 you know in a bull market
你会得到一个回调 and you're getting a pullback
在可能涨了一点之后 after maybe it's run up a bit
你可能会在四周内变矮 you might get short for four week which
被称为达佛之盒还是 which have been referred to as darvus boxes or
五周小五周基数 five week little five week bases
你可以让它们仍然具有可玩性 you can get those are still playable
但是再一次 but again
那里没有这个 there don't have that
你可以从一个更大的 footing that you would get from a larger
如果你愿意的话，可以进行修正 correction base if you will
你会得到一个漂亮的 you get a nice
杯子把手或者一个大的底座，你就得到了一个很好的欺骗 cup of handle or a big base and you get a nice cheat
低作弊，你得到几个条目 low cheat and you get several entries
这是一般的指导方针 so again but that would be the general guidelines
或者六周的权力游戏更少五到六周 or six weeks are less for power plays five six weeks
4 - 5 - 6周的短期训练 4 5 6 weeks for the shorter bases
好吧 all right
蕾妮想要兄弟 renee's asking on bros
是的 yeah
你几周前派去监视的人 that you had on watch a few weeks back
她问 she's asking
这个区域今天是一个好区域的作弊与一个好 is this area today a good area of a cheat with a good
风险奖励使用当天的低点 risk award using the low of the day
不，我一点也不这么认为 no I don't think so at all
你知道这地方还需要扩建 you know this needs to be built out more
即使这设置了一个低作弊率 and even if this set up a low cheat here
你有很多货源 you've got a lot of supply
让我们把这个移下来 let's move this down
我们之前讲过这个，还记得吗 we talked about this before right remember over here
就是这个 this was this right here
是枢轴我在这里指出来 was to pivot let me point it out right here
我们正在讨论这个 we were talking about this
我记得我们的一个会员在这里买的 and I remember one of our members bought it here
我说这可能会结束 and I said that this may go
但它可能会遇到一些麻烦 but it's probably going to run into some trouble as it
了一些供应 hit some supply
它的右侧还没有发育 and it hasn't really developed that right side
这就是发生的事情 that's exactly what's happened
现在右边 now this right side
看起来它还需要一些发展 still looks like it needs some development
如果我们把事情拖到你说的地步 if we pull this down to where you're talking about
然后我们把它停到左边 and we just pull this over to the left here
有很多sup there's a lot of sup
你看，这里有很多供应 you see this there's a lot of supply
你看这里还有很多供给 you see there's a lot of supply to this left here
所以我会非常小心 so I would be very careful
我的意思是你说的可能 I mean you're talking about maybe
我的意思是你说的是今天 I mean you're talking about today
但即便如此 but even at this
假设这是在右边建造的 let's say this even built out of right side here
它有 and it got
它在这里收紧了 it tightened up here
哦，不好意思 oh sorry about that
稍等一下 hold on one second
这里有一点想象力 see it's a little imagination here
你知道 you know
我们建了一个漂亮的右侧，然后离开了这里 and we built a nice right side and came out of here
即便如此，我也不愿在那里变得咄咄逼人 even that I would be unwilling to get aggressive there
我可能会 I would probably if
也许我会持有一个小的立场 maybe I would take a small position there
但同样的事情可能会发生 but it's the same thing will probably happen
发生在这里 that happened here
当你看到这里的供给 as you run into this supply right here
而你还没有机会去实现它 and you haven't had a chance to build out that
,右边 that right side
我想它可能会停下来 you know I think it'll probably stall out
你可能会得到这样的结果 and you probably get something like
你知道，它延伸到这个区域 you know comes up to this area
现在你建造 and now you build
你要继续锻炼你的右侧肌肉 you continue to build out that right side
我的意思是 I mean
这只股票我认为可以再买一只 this is the stock that I could see taking another
你知道几个月，在哪里建造 you know several months and building out where
我没有把所有的空格都填上 and I'm not filling in all the spaces here
但你会明白的 but you'll get the idea
不，或者我们要扩建 no or maybe we have to build out
右边要大得多 a lot much larger right side
从这里开始 and then from there
看看它会不会这样 see now if it does something like that
看，我正在清理 see now I'm clearing
看到区别了 see the difference
让我在这里给你们展示一下区别 let me show you the difference here
看它从这里穿过 see as it moves through here
从这里穿过 so goes through here
对不起 sorry
几乎所有的供应都被清空了 it's clearing out almost all the supply
这就是供给 and the supply that is
再往后一点 there is further back
这里有很多即时供应 over here you've got lots of immediate supply
这里有一些最近供应的 and right here some supply that recently
你的衰落很顺利 you had a pretty good decline
在很短的时间内，这只股票下跌了 in a very short period of time this stock went down
股价在短短几周内下跌了3132% stock went down 3132% in just a couple weeks
所以你有很多被困住的买家 so you got trapped buyers here
就像我们那位买这个的朋友 like our friend who bought this
我们的一位会员 one of our members
我不知道你是不是还在里面 I don't know you might still be in it
但是有人买了这个 but there's people that bought this
并没有减少他们的损失 and didn't cut their loss
现在它又回来了 now as it comes back up
他们将会回到收支平衡 they're gonna be getting to back to break even
你有抛售压力 and you've got that selling pressure
你想让股票发展 you want to let that stock develop
这个基底，然后发展右边 that base and develop that right side
这是不是意味着它不能 now does that mean that it can't just
右取下，右侧不发育 take right off and not develop a right side
不，我是说它肯定能做到 no I mean sure it could do that
它可能马上就会起飞 it might just take right off
但你得让这些建议过去 but you gotta let those pitches go by
这样想 think of it like this
你是个棒球运动员 you're a baseball player okay
好吧 well
可能会有一个投球，也许 there a pitch might come and maybe
还是抓住了盘子的内部 still catch the inside of the plate
于是罢工就开始了 and a strike is called
但这是否意味着你应该离开 but does that mean that you should swing out
如果你喜欢外面低一点的 if you like low one outside
当然不是 of course not
你应该 you should be
你等的是外面的低音 you're waiting for that low outside pitch
通常如果你在里面荡那么高 and usually if you swing at that high inside or
它接住了车牌，还是击中了 and it catches the plate and it's still the strike
或者你或者你看了就会被称为罢工 or you or you watch it you get called a strike
或者你挥拳出击 or you swing at it and you strike
因为它不在你的 because it's not in your
这不是你最喜欢的 it's not in your sweet spot
交易的好处是没有压力 the thing with trading is is that there's no pressure
你知道你不会三振出局的 you know you're not called out in three strikes
你有大把的时间等啊等 you have all the time in the world to wait and wait
让股票符合你的标准 for the stocks to meet your criteria
你唯一的压力是自己造成的 the only pressure that you have is self inflicted
是你自己诱导的吗 is self induced by you
想要行动 you know wanting action
你是让平均值还是 are you letting the averages or
你所看到的会影响你 what you're seeing affect you
逼迫你演戏 and pressure you into acting
但你不必这么做 but you don't have to
这就像玩扑克没有反 this is like playing poker with no anti
不花时间，不花钱等待 no time taken no cost to wait
你可以坐在那里等王牌 and you could just sit there and wait for aces
不仅仅是在扑克游戏中 and not only that in poker
其他球员会看到你的紧身衣 the other players would see your tight
它们会折叠 and they would fold
所以这个策略甚至需要稍微改变一下 right so that strategy even needs to be altered a bit
但在这个例子中，情况并非如此 but with this that's not the case
你不需要等待完美的安排 it's not like if you wait for a perfect setup
那是行不通的 that it's not gonna work
因为市场 because the market
这就是你的风格 sees that that's the type of player you are
不不 no no
所以你可以免费坐在这里 so you can sit here for free
等啊，等啊，等啊 and wait and wait and wait and wait
为了完美的设置 for the perfect setups
这就是为什么你真的知道 that's why you know really
当你真正把它放下的时候 when you really get this down
随着时间的推移，几乎不可能失败 it's virtually impossible to fail over time
如果你遵守规则的话 if you're sticking to the rules
你知道我不会失败的 you know I'm not going to fail at this
因为我有很好的规则 because I have good rules
我有纪律，是的 I have the discipline yes
我是否会时不时地承受损失 am I going to take losses at times
当然也会有困难的海盗 and there are going to be difficult pirates yes
但我要减轻它 but I'm going to mitigate it
我一定会去的 and I'm going to be there
我要等待那个时刻 and I'm going to wait for those times
一切都是正确的 where everything is right
我要做一个 and I'm going to make a
那时候有很多钱 ton of money during those times
为风险买单 pay for that risk
这就是斗篷 and that's the cape
他实际上是个扑克牌玩家 he is a poker player actually
马克也玩了一些 mark actually plays some
以前经常跟正常人玩 used to play with norm
太好了，太棒了 well great oh that's awesome well
是的,所以 yeah so
所以你明白你知道那种想法 so you understand you know that that that thinking
这就是为什么 and that's why it's really important to
我们先用扑克训练交易员 we train traders with poker first
你知道在我之前 you know before I would even
让交易员或管理资金的人 let a trader or someone that was managing money
对我或我的公司来说 for me or my firm
如果他们不懂扑克的基本原理 if they didn't understand the basics of poker
和床上用品的手，并逐步 and bedding on a hand and incrementally
根据手的发育情况来调整 adjusting that based on how the hand develops
那我就不会让他们碰钱 then I would never let them touch money
真金白银交易股票 real money trading stocks
你必须了解如何管理风险回报 you have to understand how to manage that risk reward
但问题是这不仅仅是数学问题 so but the thing is that's not just the math okay
这是数学方面的问题 there's the math side of it
你在哪里管理风险 where you're managing that risk versus
你的奖赏和你 your reward and you're
分析你的击球率之类的 analyzing your batting average and all that
那是数学网站 that's the math site
但还有识别的技能方面 but then there's the skill side of identifying
图表模式和 the chart patterns and
了解供给和需求以及地点 understanding supply and demand and where
你在交易供给，等待 you're trading into supply and waiting for
知道王牌是什么样子的 knowing what aces look like
在扑克游戏中，我们得到王牌 see in a poker game we get del aces
我们知道这是王牌王牌 we know it says ace ace
我们知道他们的王牌，我们知道他们的国王 king king we know their aces we know their kings
在这里，你需要培养这种技能 well here you've got to develop the skill
知道一对王牌是什么样子的 to know what a pair of aces look like
两个人长什么样啊 what a pair of twos look like
我看这里的交易 I look at a trade like right over here
如果你还记得我特别说过的话 if you remember back I said it specifically
马克·里奇说 and mark ritchie said
如果你接受这个交易，可能会成功 if you take this trade right here it may work
但是如果你用100乘以1000乘以 but if you take it 100 times 1000 times
它可能是一个失败者 it's probably a loser
这意味着这可能是一对6 and that means that this is maybe a pair of sixes
现在如果像我刚才画的那样发展 now if this develops like I just drew out here and
体积进来了 and the volume comes in
这就产生了 this is developing something like a
像一个奥利 like an ollies
我将向您展示 I'll show you
让我们看看奥利 let's look at ollies
我喜欢开创先例 I love to bring upprecedents
让我们看看奥利 so let's look at ollies
然后回到我买它的地方 and go back to where I was buying it
大卫·瑞恩也买了 and david ryan was buying it
给你们展示 show you here
你们有些人以前见过这个，但是 some of you have seen this before but
所以你可以看到我还是画了线 so you can see I still have the lines drawn in
看这里，现在已经建立得很好了 see now here this is really set up quite nicely now
这是王牌 now this is aces
这是一对王牌 this is a pair of aces
最坏的情况是这是一组国王 at the worst this is a set of kings
一对k so a pair of kings
所以如果我做了这笔交易，我实际上是在这里买的 soif I make this trade I actually bought it right here
大卫在这里买的，我在这里加的 and david bought it here and I added here
所以我就在这里买了 so I started buying it right here
然后大卫和我都在这里买的 and then david and I both bought it here
他发起了这个立场 he initiated this position
现在如果我播放这个设置 now if I play this setup
100乘以1000，我是赢家 100 times 1000 times I'm a winner
我知道我知道如果我玩这个我就赢了 I know that I know I'm a winner if I play this
一遍又一遍地设置 setup over and over and over
这是你需要培养的技能 and that's the skill that you have to develop
知道什么是好的设置 knowing what are the good setups
还有另一个元素 and then there's another element
然后你必须有纪律 then you have to have the discipline
看看这些伟大的设置 to see these great setups
如果它们不起作用 and if they're not working
即使你看到很棒的设置，也要后退 back off even though you see great setups
你不主动曝光是因为 you don't get aggressive with the exposure because
直到他们开始 until they start
证明他们的工作，因为伟大的设置失败 proving that they work because great setups fail
在市场不景气的情况下，你会有这样的安排 you'll have a setup like this in a bad market
你进入的是双人市场 you're going into a pair market
这会失败的 this is gonna fail
所以你可以 so you can have you know
就像王牌一样，你可以得到王牌 just like aces you can get dealt aces
我已经连续打了四五次a牌了 I've gotten dealt aces four or five times in a row
每次都失败了 and lost every time
但这并不能改变长期来看的事实 but doesn't change the fact that over the long term
王牌选手会赢 aces are gonna win
但你得聪明点 but you've got to be smart
足以在短期内控制风险 enough to manage the risk in the short period
所以有很多元素 so there's a number of elements
我想做的是 and what I try to do is
按时间顺序排列 give you those in chronological order
从基地的左边开始 starting at the left side of the base
一直在工作 working all the way over
将数学带入交易 bringing the math into the trading
带来的一切 bringing everything in
现在你知道按时间顺序要找什么了 so now you know in chronological order what to look for
所有的步骤，你可以买到低欺骗 all the steps at which you can buy the low cheat
欺骗手柄 the cheat the handle
拉回 the pull back
拉回内作弊和手柄 the pull back by within the cheats and the handles
你有所有这些工具 and you have all those tools
现在你要培养经验 now you got to develop the experience
为了使 to make
有质量的选择，并正确地应用这些工具 quality choices and to apply those tools properly
简而言之，这怎么样 how is that for a nutshell
总结 summary
约翰问 john is asking
如果你曾经考虑过这个概念 if you ever looked at the idea of just
绑定99卢比评级的股票 bind stocks with 99 rs ratings
当股价跌破99时卖出 sell them when they drop below 99
似乎 it would seem
你总能跑赢指数 that you would always be beating the indexes
至少 at the very least
没有不工作 no doesn't work
我们试了那么多年，90年 we tried that many years and 90
问题是那些领先的股票真的 the thing is is that those leading stocks those really
烧谷仓的存货也有巨大的下降 barn burning stocks also have huge downside
你仍然需要用止损来管理风险 you still would have to have stops manage risk
但有时它仍会很糟糕 and there's still times where it will work miserably
所以你知道没办法了 so you know there's no way around
首先看 look first of all
你不需要对它进行量化 you're not going to quantify this to a point
我们就像 we're just like
购买电脑列出的一系列股票 buying a list of stocks that a computer spits out
不可能发生的 not gonna happen
我是说你能 I mean could you
你能做得好吗 could you do well
因为你 because you
也许能跑赢市场，或者获得不错的回报 maybe beat the market or get a decent return
与直接定量 with straight quant
使用直接的定量分析 using a straight quant
模型当然可以 model sure you could
PBH的增长当时不叫PBH there was pbh growth was that wasn't called pbhg
PBH增长他们有一个定量模型 pbh growth they had a quantitative model
很多公司都这么做了 it was a number of firms have done that
经营共同基金和对冲基金 and ran mutual funds and hedge funds
德萧纯粹是定量的 de shaw is purely quantitative
这些人每年生产20% but again these people are producing 20 % a year
他们有下降 and they have drawdowns
你不会得到很大的回报 you're not going to get big returns
当个超级卖国贼 manager drawdowns and be a super traitor
,在 that with
用直接的定量方式 with a straight quantitative style
所以我研究了很多年 so I did look at that for many years
我十年又十年地重温它 I revisited it decade after decade after decade
我甚至尝试了一个模型 I even tried a model where
在特定条件下 on their certain conditions
然后我们买了 then we bought
你知道前50或前100卢比的股票 you know the top 50 or top hundred rs stocks
在这些特定条件下有一个限定词 and under those certain conditions had a qualifier
即使这样也很难实现 and even that was really tough to pull off
我们还没有找到做这件事的方法 we haven't found a way to do it
和幸运的是 and and luckily
这就是为什么你知道我 that's why you know I
我是一个超级交易员是因为你知道或者 I'm a super trader is because you know or
或者一个超级演员 or a super performer if you will
是因为你做不到吗 is because you can't do that
如果你能做到的话 now if you could do that then
我只是写本书，然后说声嗨 I just write a book and say hey
把这些输入输入他的excel电子表格 put these inputs into his excel spreadsheet
当这一切发生时 and when this hits
X告诉你为什么要这样做 x heats why you do this
每个人都可以通过交易成为百万富翁 and everybody would be millionaires from trading
没有人需要做任何工作 and nobody would have to do any work
你猜怎么着 and guess what
它不存在 it wouldn't exist
没有机会了 there'd be no opportunity
因为市场是有效的 because the market would be efficient
这就是你必须要保留的东西 see that's the thing that you have to keep
所有想搞清楚这事的人 everybody who's trying to figure this out
然后得出这个量化的方法 and come up with this quantitative way
并要求黑白分明的答案 and wants black and white answers
真的错过了大局吗 is really missing the big picture
好吧，这是你最不希望发生的事情 okay that's the last thing in the world that you want
因为如果那是 because if that was
如果你能做到的话 if you were able to do that
你不能这么做 you wouldn't be able to do that
你知道没有边缘它会 you understand there would be no edge it would
优势是 the edge would be
将是完全有效的 would be fully efficient
一切 everything
每个人都会这么做吗 would be figured out and everybody would do it
这样就没有边缘了，就行不通了 and there would be no edge and it wouldn't work
所以你有一条边的全部原因是因为 so the whole reason why you have an edge is because
你无法量化它 you cannot quantify it
这就是美 that's the beauty
你最不想做的就是把这件事搞清楚 the last thing you want to do is figure this out
用非黑即白的答案来量化 and quantify it with black and white answers
这是我们最不希望发生的事情 that's the last thing that we want to happen
卡拉多正在询问 carado is asking at
我不确定他是否在问 I'm not sure if he's asking
在这个特定的市场环境下 anytime or in this particular market environment
但你愿意承担的总投资风险是多少呢 but what is the total portfolio risk you're willing to
如果每一个 take if every
你的一个空缺位置要被封杀了 one of your open positions were to be stopped out
作为你账户的% as a % of your account
这是变化的，没有没有固定的数字 that changes there's not there's not a set number
你知道书上说的我的答案是零 you know the book my answer is zero
我从0开始 I started zero okay
我不想失去任何东西 I'm trying to lose nothing
这就是现实 now is that is that realistic
不，但这就是我的目标 no but that's my goal
这是我的第一个目标，从那开始就是1% that's my first goal and from there it's 1%
如果我达不到那就是2% and if I can't achieve that it's 2%
我不会说5%是可以接受的，不 see I'm not going in and saying oh 5% is acceptable no
0%是我想要的1%是不行的 0% is what I want 1% is not acceptable
这就是我 that's what I'm
这就是你的方式 and that's the way you
就像迈克尔·乔迪会走出去说 it's like is michael jordy gonna go out and go say
如果我今晚能拿到25分 you know if I score 25 points tonight
你知道这很酷 you know that's cool
这是一个好游戏 that's a good game
我不介意 I'm cool with that
不不 no no
他会去争取更多的得分 he's gonna go out and try to score as many
尽他所能 as he possibly can
如果他之前的记录是50 and if his previous record was 50
然后他想得51分或者更好 then he wants to score 51 or better
这就是你应对风险的方式 and that's the way you should approach risk
经常去那里 go in there try to constantly
不断地把手腕带到 constantly bring that wrist to the
绝对最小的量 absolute smallest amount you can
直到你把交易搞得一团糟 until you choke the trade off so much that
好吧，这不行，这太紧了 okay that's not that doesn't work that's too tight
然后，然后 and then and then
松开套索，直到你达到最佳水平 loosen the noose until you're at that optimal level
这是达到最优水平的方法 that's the way to get to that optimal level
现在这个最优水平要改变了 now that optimal level is going to change
这就是为什么我总是从0开始 that's why I constantly start at zero
因为我不知道最佳水平在哪里 because I don't know where that optimal level is
最佳水平 and that optimal level
我的内心想要尽可能的低调 I wanted to be as low as possible within
在数学意义的范围内 within the confines of making mathematical sense
根据我的平均水平 based on my average game
如果你能理解的话 if that makes sense you understand
这就是我想要的范围 so that's the sort of the range that I want to be in
我想加入 I want to be in
或者我想做二比一的交易员 or yes I want to be a two to one trader
你知道我想做三比一的交易员 you know I want to be a three to one trader
实际上是五比一的交易员 actually a five to one trader
但我希望是最小的2到1 but I want to be a two to one minimum
所以在这个范围内 so within that range
这是否意味着我不打算成为一个 does that mean that I'm not gonna try to be a
温柔点不，我要温柔点 tender one no I'm gonna try to be a tender one
我要尽我所能做最好的风险回报 I'm gonna try to be as best risk reward as I can
在可接受的范围内 within an acceptable range
这个amphc，它向上移动了一点 this amphc it's moving up a little bit more here
从今天开始一切都很顺利 this is working out good from here today
如果你还记得我之前提到过的 this is one if you remember I mentioned before
几周 a couple weeks
我想是两周前吧 I guess it was two weeks ago
它支撑得很好 it was holding up so well
并提醒我 and remind me
这让我想起了安进和我们 this reminds me of amgen and us
外科手术和一些 surgical and some of the
顺便说一句，我不会在这里买的 I wouldn't buy it here by the way
所以别走，伙计们，别跑出去买这个 so don't go guys don't go run out and buy this now
但这让我想起了几周前 but this reminded me a couple weeks ago
当我们纠正的时候，这是 when we were correcting and this was
去新的高地 going to new high ground
类似于很多生物科技和医药股 similar to a lot of the biotechs and the medical stocks
科技股成立于1990年 and the technology stocks were setting up in 1990
尽管市场正在调整 although the market was correcting
他们保持着自己的趋势 they were holding their up trends
所以我觉得这是 so I felt like this was
这就是我所说的上升状态 sort of what I call an ascending situation
提升基地 ascending base
所以 so
我持有一个小头寸，今天又加了一点 I took a small position and I added a little bit today
但就像我说的 but like I said
如果它一直跑到这里 if this keeps running up here
我可能会把它切成两半 I'm probably gonna cut it in half
为了澄清空手道标记的问题他是 just to clarify that question from karate mark he was
想知道什么是 wanting to know what's the
你愿意持有的总投资风险 total portfolio risk you're willing to hold
按你账户隔夜敞口的比例 as a percentage of your account for overnight exposure
所以我应该澄清一下 so I should have clarified that
这是会 that's that's gonna
你知道我的意思 gonna change to you know I mean
我不能说有具体的数字，但是 I can't say there's a specific number but
你知道我想要 you know I want it
我不是这么想的，好吗 I'm not really looking at it that way okay
我在看 I'm looking at the
每个人的位置和定位 each individual position and positioning
相应的尺寸 sizing accordingly
基于 based on the
每个个体交易，以及这个数字下降的地方 each individual trade and wherever that number falls
这一数字下降 that number falls
一旦我盈利了 now once I'm at a profit
你知道我将再次支持股票 you know again I'm going to be backstopping stocks
我会的 I'm going to be
有些股票我连止损点都没有 some stocks I don't even have a stop on
你知道一个实际的 you know an actual
别说了，我在说，嘿，我不在这个号码上 stop that I'm saying hey I'm out at this number
我一笔交易涨了20% I'm up 20% on a trade
你知道 you know
我甚至可能在那个特定的时刻停下来 I might even have a stop at that particular moment
因为我有一个很好的垫子 because I have such a good cushion
你知道我有我有很多空间 you know I've got I've got a lot of room in it
所以第二天如果它下降了 so next day if it's down
xml，我要重新评估它 you know xml I'm gonna reassess it
所以我不能说我真的有一个数字 so I can't say I really have a number
你知道没有具体的数字 you know there's not a specific number
这并不是一个简单的数字 it's not as easy to just say there's this hard number
即使我有确切的数字 and even if I do have a hard number
这个数字会改变 that number is going to change
我做这些决定的时候 I make these decisions as
根据我的投资组合 you know based on how I'm doing my portfolio
我在哪里 where I am
这个数字每天都在变化 and that number changes day to day
所以这又是 so that is again
这是在寻找一个非黑即白的答案 that's looking for a black and white answer
我真的给不了你 that I just can't really give you
是的 yeah
我知道，但我可以告诉你 I am aware though I can tell you this
我知道 I do know
如果我的所有交易都被停止 that if I was to be stopped out of all my trades
那会给我带来什么损失 what lost that's gonna give me
所以现在我知道了这个数字 and so now I am aware of that number
如果我不能接受这个数字 and if that number is unacceptable to me
如果我今天对自己说 if I just say to myself today
嘿，如果我被挡在外面 hey if I get stopped out of everything
今天我输了10万 today I lose 100 grand
我可能会说这一点都不酷 I mightsay that that's not cool at all
损失10万我可受不了 I'm not cool with 100 grand loss
所以我马上就知道了 so I immediately know that
我要开始留意这些名字 I'll start watching these names
如果他们开始向我靠近 and if they start moving in on me
我将开始逐步削减开支 I'll start incrementally cutting back
你知道，所以那种 you know so that sort of
你知道要有这种意识 you know the have that awareness is going to
实现我所做的事情 implements what I do
但我不会说嘿 but it's not like I'm gonna say hey
这是数字，这是我最大的机器人 this is the number and that's my maximum droid on that
我愿意接受，如果它撞上了 I'm willing to take it if it hits that
你知道我什么都赌了 you know I punt everything
对我来说不是这样的 it doesn't work that way for me
也是这样 and it is that also
结合市场情况 with the market conditions
在这个战争的环境中 in this environment with the war
甚至有核攻击的威胁 threat of nuclear attack even
主要风险是 and the headline risk is
这改变了你的动力 that changed that dynamic for you
首先 first of all
核攻击的威胁总是存在的 there's always the threat of nuclear attack
我的意思是任何事情都可能在任何时候发生 I mean anything can happen at any time
黑天鹅事件总是会发生的 there can always be a black swan event so
但是没有 but but no
不，一点也不 no not at all
这么说吧 put it this way
如果现在有股票 if there was stock setting up right now
全面 across the board
我会疯狂买的，好吧 I would be buying like crazy okay period
我不在乎他们说什么 I don't care if they say
普京明天要发射一枚核弹 putin's going to launch a nuke to morrow
股票就是智慧 the stocks are the intelligence
如果是如果是这样的话 if it was if that was the case
你不会有一大堆股票 you wouldn't have a whole bunch of stock setting up
这就是市场下跌的原因，这就是原因 that's why the market's falling that's why
因为环境不好，而且这个 because the environment is not good and and this
市场的预测会更加准确 the market is going to be more correct at predicting
外面的风险，环境，还有 the risk out there and the environment and
经济上的麻烦 the troubles in the economy
比你和其他人都要多 way more than you or any other human being
世界上最聪明的人 the smartest people in the world
试过这样做，但他们做不到 have tried to do this and they can't
他们不可能比市场本身做得更好 they can't do it better than the market itself
市场是最好的预测器 that the market is the best predictor
所以当你学会怎么当车尾的时候 so when you learn how to be a caboose
让市场成为火车 and let the market be the train
这是当 that's when
你做得很好，也不会惹麻烦 you do really well and you stay out of trouble
这是关键，你不要挖进去看看 that's the key where you don't dig in and see if
你有意见我就去 I go when you have an opinion
我认为你知道 I go well I think you know
这场战争会持续很长时间 this war is gonna last a long time
和普京的 and putin's gonna
启动一个核 launch a nuke
现在我已经坚持自己的观点了 now I've dug in with an opinion
现在一切都起飞了 now everything takes off
一个新的碗市场，但这不会发生 a new bowl market and that doesn't happen
我错过了这个机会 and I miss the opportunity
因为我坚持自己的观点 because I dug in with this opinion
这是基于 that is based on
坐在扶手椅上看CNN watching cnn in my own armchair quarterbacking
那太荒唐了 that's ridiculous
等他们准备好了，我就跟他们走 I'm going to go with the stocks when they set up
我买股票 I buy the stocks
科维德就是这样 this happened with kovid
我的意思是贪图贪图的情况 I mean covet the covet situation
在我的职业生涯中，我经历过几次可怕的时刻 I've had a few terrifying moments in my career
87号的车祸对我来说并不可怕 the 87 crash wasn't that terrifying to me
因为我没有多少钱 because I didn't have much
哦，反正我也没买过 oh I was out of the market anyway
我也没有多少钱 and I didn't really have much money
从市场开始 in the market to begin with
但后来到了1990年 but later on then there was 1990
但 but
2000年是可怕的 2000 was horrible
但当时我已经离开了市场，所以我也没有害怕 but I was out of the market so again I wasn't terrified
哦八哦九 oh eight oh nine
当我们出现时，我试着从低处切入 I tried to get in off the lows as we turned up
跟踪当天的股票开始设置 follow through day stock started setting up
那是非常危险，非常危险的时刻 that was treacherous treacherous treacherous time
而是我最害怕的时刻 but the absolute time where I was most scared
和感觉 and felt like
这件事真的很可能会变糟 this is something that really could go bad
我完全不知道会发生什么 and I and I have no idea what's going to happen here
那是贪婪，我想每个人都可以这么说 it was covet and I think everybody could say that
我们被它带走了 that we were taken by
完全出人意料 complete surprise
那里只是 where there's just
不知道它会去哪里 no telling where that was going to go
或者会发生什么 or what was going to happen
和四月市场 and April the market
如何跟进当日股票开始设立 how to follow through day stock started setting up
我开始 I started
通过警惕来炒股，买一些股票 putting stocks on by alert sort of buying some names
马克·里奇打电话给我说 and mark richie called me and said
我们不是在这里买股票吧 we're not buying stocks here are we
我是说我们在这里做什么 I mean what are we doing here
我说我们在买股票 and I said we're buying stocks
如果股票成立，我们就买股票 if the stock set up we're buying stocks
我不管新闻是什么 I don't care what the news is
我们在坠落，如果我们要 we're falling and if we're gonna get
如果它们不起作用的话 if they're not gonna work
然后我们就会被拦在外面 then we're gonna get stopped out
但我们在买股票 but we're buying stocks
我们买股票 we bought stocks and
马克·里奇涨了350% mark richie was up 350%
我你知道我今年过得很好 I you know I had a good year
这只是 and it was just
当时的美元环境也很宽松 it was such an easy dollar environment too
是最简单的吗 is one of the easiest
这是我们多年来看到的交易环境 trading environments that we've seen in years
这是最坏的消息 coming while the worst possible news
也是最不确定的时刻 and the most uncertain time you could ever
我这辈子见过的 that I've ever seen in my lifetime
所以你知道 so you know that's
这就是我的方法 that's the way I approach it
这对我很有效 and it's what's worked for me and
到现在已经持续了近40年 and has been consistent for almost 40 years now
明显的问 obvious asking
你在书中提到了什么 where you mentioned in your book
昨天的利润就是今天的资本 that yesterday's profits are today's capital
不管你想怎么做 however you want to
你提到用利润作为新进入的缓冲 you reference using profit as a cushion for new entry
那么你在哪里 so where do you
你在哪里重新定义它 where do you redefine that
先前交易的收益现在是你的新收益 gains from prior trades are now your new
还有一些利润被你用作缓冲 other still profits that you're using as cushion
对比你的新基线 versus your new baseline of
你的资金 your capital
你又在寻找非黑即白的答案 again you're looking for black and white answers
这些都是个人的决定 that are personal decisions
你知道我对自己的意义 you know I mean to me again
0是数字 zero is the number
我一直在努力让它变得一无所有 I'm constantly trying to get it to where I lose nothing
今天就是个很好的例子 you know and today's a perfect example
我把扩音器调高了，把狐狸放倒了 I got amph up I got fox down
你知道，我看着我的pnl，我想，你知道 you know and I'm looking at my pnl I'm like you know
如果这只狐狸真的在这里惹上麻烦 if this fox really started to get in trouble here
我看到我刚刚把安培放大了一倍 and I see that I just doubled up on my amph
而且我有短期利润 and I'm up on a short term profit
不,我可能 no I probably
把我的音箱调低一点，这样就能缓冲我的 take off some of my amph and it'll it'll cushion out my
我的狐狸迷失了 my fox a loss
你知道 you know
这是我做出决定的依据 and that's the decision I'm gonna make based on
我只是想保住我的投资组合 I'm just trying to keep my portfolio
即使在今天 you know even today
但我可能还是会养狐狸 but again I'll probably still keep fox
也不能阻止我出去 doesn't stop me out
我可能会养一些狐狸和一些男人 I would maybe keep some fox and I'll keep some man ph
为了表演好 for the acting well
但我可能会在当天做一些调整 but I might make that little adjustment intraday
互相抵消 just to offset each other
所以这并不是一个非黑即白的问题 so again it's not a black and white
这不是一个非黑即白的答案 it's not a black and white answer
但最重要的是尽量不要 but the main thing is try not to get
得到 to get
太可爱了，买只股票吧 too cute buy a stock
好吧，你在爆发时买只股票 okay you buy a stock on the break out
xl就是一个很好的例子 you know xl is a perfect example
好的，我们把xl a调出来 all right let's bring up xl a
或者其他一些名字 or some of these other names
你在越狱的时候买股票，对吧 you buy the stock here on the breakout right okay
现在 now
要么阻止你出局，要么让你失去利润 does either stop you out or it puts you out of profit
当你得到利润时 well as you get to that profit
现在你要决定你是谁 now you've got to make that decision of what you're
你知道的 well you know what's
这对你有多大的好处啊 what's a good profit for you
你可以支持它 you can backstop it
你可以把它卖给强者，然后全部拿走 you can sell it to strength and take it all
你可以使用移动平均线 you can use a moving average
你可以在这里放一个10天移动平均线，然后持有 you'll put a 10 day moving average here and hold it
你会在这里被击倒 you'd be knocked out right here
你可以使用一个支撑架，并把它移上去 you can use a backstop and move that backstop up
你可能还在里面 you might still be in it
你可以卖一半，然后用50天 you can sell half and use the 50 day
使用50r休息 use the 50 a r break
甚至更好，所以现在我 even better so now I
将剩余的时间用于更长期的移动 play the remainder of it for a longer term move
听着，你还在这50天里 look you're still in it the 50 days
一直拿着它 holding it all this time
现在它被扩展了也许你可以把它卖掉 and now it's getting extended maybe here you sell it
这些都是你必须要做的决定 so these are decisions you have to make
基于你自己的目标 based on your own goals
如果我有很多这样的名字 now if I have a number of these names
这是人们开始的地方 this is where people start
进入的地方 getting into where
我现在有8只股票 well I've now got eight stocks
现在我打开了全屏 so now I've got this full exposure on
我们分别来看一下 well look at each one individually
看看你是否把每一个单独 see if you make each individual
交易是个好决定 trade a good decision
这意味着如果你有10笔交易 well that means that if you have 10 individual trades
你有10个个人风险回报好的地方 you've got 10 individual good risk reward place
你的整体结果会很好 your overall result is going to be good
很明显，如果你被挡在外面 now obviously if you get stopped out of everything
那么 well then
是的，你会损失x的总止损量 yes you're going to lose x amount of your total stop
但如果你只使用总股本的1.25% but again if you're only using 1.25% of total equity
你放入x笔交易 and you put x amount of trades
你不会有那么大的削减 you're not going to have that big of a drawdown
你不需要这样 you're not going to have to be
你会被拦下很多次 you're going to have to get stopped a lot of times
一遍又一遍 over and over and over
你得冲几个浪 and you have to go for several waves
你会回到哪里 where you'd go back
进入市场 into the market
再试一次，特别是如果你正在使用 try it again especially if you're using
逐步暴露 progressive exposure
你会没事的 you're going to be okay
就是当你单独摆脱这些规则的时候 it's when you get away from those rules individually
和你开始 and you start
扩界, oversizing and having
损失太大了 losses that are too big
或者你在加速 or you're ratcheting up
在你有缓冲垫之前太快了 too fast before you have a cushion
这就是你遇到麻烦的地方 that's where you get into the trouble
好吧，没有太多的曝光 okay not having a whole bunch of exposure on
如果你有一大堆 if you have a whole bunch of
我可以向你保证，如果我们去看看 like I can assure you that if we go and look at
马克·里奇的交易，或者你来看看我的交易 mark richies trading or you look at my trading
你知道 you know
你会发现我们永远不会 you're going to see that we're never getting really
高度暴露，风险也很高 highly exposed and have our risk high
直到我们找到牵引力，然后我们就能掩护了 until we've got traction and from there we're covered
所以我们总是就像男人打扑克一样 so we're always it's like man poker
永远把自己关在外面 always keep yourself outs
我们一直在确保我们有对手 we're always making sure that we have outs
这才是更重要的 and that's what's more important
而不是想出一个具体的数字 than coming up with a specific number
或者试着量化 or trying to quantify this
然后想出一个你说好的方法 and come up with a way where you say well
xml中，我得到了这个百分比 xml I'm out this percentage this number
你得提高你的技能 get good at you gotta increase your skill okay
你必须掌握技能 you gotta get the skill and
你会成为这方面的能手 you'll be a craftsman at this
这就是关键 and that's the key
确保每一个决定都是有质量的 and make each every decision a quality decision
现在当我的女儿 now when my daughter
离开家，和朋友出去玩 leaves the house and goes out with her friends
我知道他们可能会去参加一些活动 that I know they're going to probably go do some devia
该死，因为他们现在15岁了 shit because they're 15 now
你知道我对她说什么 you know what I say to her
做有质量的选择，你是一个非常聪明的人 make quality choices you're a very smart person
但聪明只有在你使用它的时候才有用 but smart is only good if you use it
帮我个忙，我百分之百信任你 so do me a favor I trust you 100%
我也知道你会 and I know you're gonna make
你会做一些愚蠢的事情 you're gonna do some stupid stuff
但是要努力做出有质量的决定 but try to make quality decisions
这就是keep make that's to keep make
仔细考虑你的决定，做出正确的选择 think about your decisions and make good choices
这就是我在交易中所做的 that's what I do with trading
平等决定每一个决定都是质量的选择 equality decisions every decision a quality choice
只要 as long as
每个单独的决策都是一个质量决策 each individual decision is a quality decision
其中一些决定将会 the some of those decisions are going to be
这将是一个高质量的投资组合 it's going to be a quality portfolio
在平等的结果 in equality outcome
好吧嗯 okay um
lyv上有个问号 there was a question mark on the lyv
我们上周做的交易 trade that we took last week
周二 on Tuesday
因为它似乎并没有超过最近任何一次爆发 as it did not appear to break out above any recent
价格水平正在回升 price level it was coming back in
早上你买的时候 in the morning when you bought it
如果你能参考 if you could refer
回顾一下贸易 to review that trade
什么是 and what was the
但当时担保绑定那个名字 but warranted bind that name at that time
我想我解释过这个交易员了，我不记得了 I think I explained this trader ready I don't remember
我以为我们已经说过了，但是三十一 I thought we went over this but three one
是。是此时此地的拉力吗 was the was the pull back here and now
这是直到 again this is up until
周五和今天 Friday and today
这个交易在周五仍然很正常 this trade is still acting normal although fri
星期四是户外的一天 the Thursday the outside day
你知道那有点 you know that was a little
那是一条线索 that was a tip off there
那不是我想看到的 that wasn't what I wanted to see
我想看它能装进去 I wanted to see it hold inside
再走高一点，还是没问题的 move higher but it was still fine
这是一种倒退 it was a pull back into the range
这么低的成员 this low member
我说过这个低点很重要 I said this low was important
因为你在外面挣了一天的钱 because you had that outside day on earnings
体积很大 and you had the big volume there
回到这里，我们应该看到 so really coming back in here we should have seen
很快就达到平衡 a balance pretty quickly
你想看网球比赛 you want to see tennis bowl action
我们没有得到 we did not get that
看，我在寻找网球上的螺栓动作 see I'm looking for tennis bolt action going up
我们得到了什么我们得到了一个鸡蛋 and what do we get we got an egg
正确的长条木板下 right splat down
所以这是反方向的 so this is going the opposite direction
所以这就是为什么我们被排除在外 so and this is why we're stopped out of it so
交易很简单 and the trade is very simple
一次突破，一次拉回突破 a breakout and a pull back to the breakout
如果当你遇到强大的爆发 now if when you get a strong breakout
好的，我给你们举两个完美的例子 okay I'll give you a perfect two perfect examples
一个是RTX，这里有很强的突破 one is rtx you got a really strong breakout here right
繁荣 boom
好强大的突破 nice strong breakout
很好，你又来了 okay decent and again you came out here
然后你就有了倒退 and then you had that pull back
就在枢轴下面 right back below that pivot
看看你是怎么弄到这些漂亮衣服的 and look at how you get the nice clothes
当我叫弹弓的时候，我就欢呼起来 and then wamma when I call the slingshot
所以这支股票应该 so this stock should
在两三天的回调中获得支持 get support on pullbacks of two three days
如果市场重的话 if the market's heavy
也许你能减少三天的回调 maybe you undercut that three day pullback
连续四天回调 four day pullback for a couple days
但你应该马上得到支持 but you should have support right after
如果它真的在积累 that if it truly is under accumulation
所以我知道火车应该在哪里进站 so I know where the train should come in
如果火车没有准时到达 if that train's not coming in on schedule
我知道这并没有看起来那么强烈另一个 I know this isn't as strong as it appears another one
帕洛阿尔托，这是另一个 palo alto here's another one
我们在低谷时期的表现很不错 we had a nice run off the lows here
现在看，它没有形成右边 now see it didn't form a right side
看右边，这是被压缩的 see straight up the right side this is compressed
所以我不会拿这个交换 so I wouldn't trade this
我在看这个，我希望它会 I was watching this and I was hoping it would
设置枢轴 set up a pivot
但现在它正在后退 but now it's pulling back
而这正是它应该收回的地方 and this is right where it should pull back
因为它没有右边 because it had no right side
但我要看这个 but I'm gonna watch this
你看，它会在5天后脱落 you see it comes off far five days
这就是你需要得到支持并开始的地方 this is where you need to get support and start
建立右侧 building that right side
知道你有这么一招 knowing that you had this nice strong move
告诉你不应该就此放弃 tells you that this should not be giving up
这个的很大一部分 a good portion of this
如果这个越接近这个范围 if the more this comes down into that range
它是如此的虚弱 the weaker it is so
越接近这个范围 and the more it comes down into this range where
你应该开始看到支持 you should start seeing support
我就会在这一点上更加关注它 the more I'm going to key in on it at that point
甚至可能在回调时买入 and maybe even buy that on a pullback
购买是因为那里是购物的地方 buy because that's where
的 the
交易会告诉我我想知道的一切 trade is going to tell me everything I need to know
大概在一天之内 within a day or so
现在又回到了爆发点 now this pulls right back here to the breakout
也许是这20天 maybe to the 20 day right here
再过一天左右 another day or so
这是这支股票的表现 that's it this stock's got to perform
如果它不能支撑住并开始建造 if it doesn't hold up there and start building
然后就出问题了 and then there's something wrong
随市场随股票 with the market with the stock
不管是什么，都不对劲 whatever it is it's not acting right
现在我可以离开非常接近 and now I can get out very close to the
因为我知道什么是危险的 to the danger point because I know what
我知道危险点在哪里 I know where the danger point is
我知道它应该从哪里得到支持 I know where it should be getting support
不是，我越接近这个水平 it's not and the closer I trade to that level
我的站越紧 the tighter my stop is
这是 and that's
你只知道如何评估供给和需求 you know just all about assessing supply and demand
我们现在几点了 what time do we have here
好了，我们得结束了 okay we got to wrap it up
一个问题 one more question
是的，我有一个简单的问题 yeah quick question was being
手，对不起 the hand I'm sorry
没有 no
我不想讲政治，但我要讲政治 well not to get political but I'm gonna get political
所以这整个 so so with this whole
你知道整个俄罗斯的情况 you know this whole Russian situation
我今天发了条推特 and I tweeted something today
你回头看看 you go back and you look at
看看我今天的推特 look at my tweet today
回到12月25日 back on December 25
有有有 there was there was a
有一个投影架在建筑物上 there was a projection that was put up on a building
莫斯科，它说我们 Moscow and it said that we
山姆大叔，我们在1991年给了你一份礼物 uncle sam we gave you a gift in 1991
不会再有礼物了 there's gonna be no more gifts
俄罗斯将会重生 Russia Russia will be born again
那些字真的写在什么墙上 the writing was literally on the wall of what
俄罗斯在对世界说 Russia was saying to the world
尤其是对美国 and particularly to the u s
当我们谈到乌克兰时，我不知道为什么 and you know when we go with Ukraine I don't know why
你知道为什么会写u you know why would it say u s
当我们在乌克兰的时候因为扎伦斯基 when we're in Ukraine well because zalenski
你会看到我要做什么 and you're going to see where I'm going with this
我要冒险获得回报 I'm going to risk reward
我认为zalenski做了一个非常糟糕的风险回报决定 I think zalenski made a very bad risk reward decision
好的，我现在就知道了 okay and I know right now
没人想打扎伦斯基 nobody wants to beat up on zalenski
可怜的 poor
乌克兰，我就这么叫吧 Ukraine but I'm just going to call it the way it is
如果有人认为这已经持续了 if anybody thought and this has been going on for
十年了，甚至更久 for a decade now or even more where
每个人都知道 where everybody knew that
俄罗斯不会对乌克兰冷眼旁观 Russia was not going to be cool with Ukraine
进入欧盟 going into the eu
还有北约，在边境上建立基地 and nato and having that right on the border
他们说得很清楚 they made it perfectly clear
墙上的投影基本上是在说 and that projection on the wall was basically saying
你不会得到这份礼物的 you're not getting this gift
你有很多天赋但你没有得到这份天赋 you got a lot of gifts you're not getting this gift
不管怎样，我的观点是zalenski anyway my point is is that zalenski
去拜登 went to biden
在过去的一年里，我们一直在努力推动北约的发展 this last year and really pushed hard for nato
乌克兰反对北约 and Ukraine was against nato
公众 the public
但他们最近做了一个民意调查，他们现在支持它 but they did a recent poll and they were now for it
大多数人都赞成 the majority of people were for it
所以普京看到了然后说 so putin saw this and said
是时候行动了 this is the time to move
因为这事迟早会发生 because this shit's going to happen
扎伦斯基做错了什么 here's what zalenski did wrong
他去了，并开始推动北约 he went and started pushing for nato
他知道俄罗斯对此不会坐视不管 knowing that Russia was not going to be cool with that
但没有得到保护 but didn't secure protection
所以他认为你知道 so did he think that you know
他将能够打败俄国，如果他们 he was going to be able to fight Russia if they
他进攻了吗? attacked or did he
我想他们会接受的 think that they were going to be okay with that
这是一个糟糕的计算 that was a bad calculation
因为他们已经说过了 because they already had said they were
我不同意 not okay with that
很长很长一段时间 for a long long time
许多许多年 many many years
把那个东西挂在墙上 and put that thing on the wall which was
越凶越凶 as ominous as it can be
所以这是一个糟糕的计算，他没有保护 so that was a bad calculation then he had no protection
他了解美国 he knew the u s
不打算插手，跟 wasn't gonna step in and have a war with
所以他推动了这一进程 Russia so he pushed for this
让俄罗斯知道牌都摊开了 let Russia know the cards are on the table
这是一种糟糕的风险回报策略 it's a bad risk reward play
就像我在管理那个国家一样 like if I was running that country
我本来要走的 and I was going to go
和世界上第二大的手臂对抗 and go against the second largest arm in the world
做一些他们没有做的事情 do something that they don't
他们不喜欢 they don't like
以及我对这件事的看法是对还是错 and whether I'm right or wrong about this
这并不重要 it doesn't really matter
我们就用这个作为if的例子 let's just use this as an example of if
如果我把它看作是一种风险回报 if I was looking at this as a risk reward
风险是 the risk is is that
国家对此不以为然 the country's not cool with it
然后我就会卷入一场战争或者其他什么问题 and I end up in a war or some kind of problem
和一个比我强大得多的人 with somebody was much stronger than me
这就是市场 and that's the market
市场比我们大，对吧 the market's bigger than us right
所以我得确保我的安全 so I have to make sure that I have my ass covered
当我做这些交易的时候 when I go into these trades
就像你在管理一个国家或一家公司一样 just as if you were running a country or a company
或者任何你经营的生意 or anything you're running a business you know
你在做商业决策 you're making business decisions
你必须确保你不会进行这样的投资 you have to make sure you don't make investments that
如果它发生了，负面影响是巨大的 the downside is this huge downside if it happens
即使只有1%的机会 even if there's a 1% chance
这样的事情可能会发生 that something like this can happen
可能这个概率很低 maybe the probability is very low that
俄罗斯天 Russia in days
但是事实是 but the fact that there's even
任何可能发生的事 any chance of it whatsoever
和 and
结果是灾难性的，你必须确保 the result is so disastrous that you have to make sure
根本不可能发生那种事 that there's not even a chance of that
这是减轻 that it's mitigated
这就是为什么 so that's why
你知道交易 you know with trading
你必须时刻保护自己不受伤害 you have to always protect yourself from that
黑天鹅事件 black swan event
那 that
发生了一件让你无法挽回的事 one thing that can happen that you can't recover from
即使它不一定是完全的毁灭 even if it doesn't have to be total destruction
让你的投资组合归零 and have your portfolio to zero
但如果你下跌了6070% but if you're down 6070%
你能恢复过来吗 can you recover from that
也不知道你需要多长时间才能恢复过来 or how long is it going to take you to recover from
如果你是 that certainly if you're
你知道我我的年龄，你 you know my my age and you've
花了这么多年，几十年积累财富 spent all the years you know decades building wealth
你知道我还是不想 you know I still don't want to
把这些都擦掉，然后重新来过 erase all that and have to start all over again
这是一样的 so it's the same
我的观点是这些原则是适用的 my point is that these principles apply
在一切 in everything
风险回报 risk reward
做高质量的决策，关注你的交易 making quality decisions and looking at your trading
看看每一只个股 look at each individual stock that
你在那边 that way where you're
你必须做出高质量的决定 you got to make that quality decision
给自己一个机会，确保你的 and give yourself an out and make sure that your your
你的止损降低了风险 your stop you're mitigating that risk
如果你单独做出这些质量决定 and if you make those quality decisions individually
你的整体结果会是一个有质量的结果 your overall result is going to be a quality result
这就是我要讲的主题 that's sort of the theme of what I'm trying to
今天在这里说 you know say here today
但我现在得走了 but I have to go now
我已经出差三周了 I've been away for almost three weeks on the road
在酒店和笔记本电脑上操作 operating from a hotel and laptops
我要在这里重新开始我的生活 and I've got to get my life back together here
而且步行是很好的 and it's good
更不用说我已经精疲力竭了 not to mention I'm exhausted
所以让我花几天时间重新振作起来 so to take me a few days to get myself back together
很多事情我都有备份 and I'm backed up on a lot of things
所以我们要把这截掉 so we got to cut this off here
我感谢每个人 I appreciate everybody
我希望这对你们有所帮助 here today and I hope this has been helpful
马克里奇下周会回来 mark richie will be back next week
我这周也会讲这个教程 I'm gonna try to do this tutorial also this week on
位置大小 position sizing
你知道现在的市场 and you know the market right now
我们继续和105一起观察 we'll just go keep watching here with the hundred five
600点，跌了700点 six hundred world down 700 points there at some point
就在道琼斯指数早些时候 just earlier on the dow here
我不知道这么低的价格能不能维持下去 I don't know if this low is gonna hold
我不知道市场的走向 I don't know where the market's going
俄罗斯会发生什么 what's gonna happen in Russia
石油会发生什么 what's gonna happen with oil
我只知道现在没有合适的股票设置 I do know there's no stock setups right now working
所以我们要等 so we gotta wait
好吧 all right with that said
这个录像回放几分钟后就可以看到 this video replay will be available in a few minutes
感谢您抽出时间参加我们的节目 thanks for your time joining us
请继续关注直播 and also stay tuned to the livestream for
当然 of course
本周剩余时间的实时警报 real time alerts throughout the remainder of the week
我们今天确实解决了很多问题 we did get through a lot of questions today
但当然不是每个人 but of course not everyone
如果你 if you
能保留你没回答的问题吗 can just keep your question that was not answered
你可以下周再接回去 you can always plug it back in for next week
剪切粘贴 cut and paste it
我们一定会回来的 and we will certainly get back at it then
谢谢，我们会尽快联系你 thanks and we'll speak with you soon
拜拜 bye bye